Lion of the Blogosphere

Texas is a win-win for Trump

From a WaPo article:

Ironically, the first key for Rubio in Tuesday’s balloting involves cheering for a Trump victory over Cruz in Texas, which would embarrass the freshman senator in his home state and block his path forward.

This makes Texas a state where Donald Trump can’t lose in the long run, no matter what the outcome.

If Trump actually wins Texas, he picks up a lot of delegates. Even though Texas isn’t a winner-take-all state, there are still a lot of delegates, and the guy with the highest vote total picks up more of them than anyone else.

A win in Texas probably means that the turnout for Trump was actually higher across all of the Super Tuesday states than currently predicted by the polls. A resounding sweep of Super Tuesday, picking up lots of delegates, will make Trump unstoppable even if Cruz drops out the next day because he couldn’t even win his home state.

Rubio can dream that he can finally start winning if only Cruz drops out, but it won’t turn out that way in reality. Not after Trump gains massive social proof from such a resounding win on Super Tuesday. Current polls show Rubio losing to Trump in a head-on contest, even in Rubio’s home state of Florida.

On the other hand, if Cruz wins Texas (as currently predicted by polls) and Cruz stays in the race, then the anti-Trump vote continues to be split between Cruz and Rubio, and Trump should have the same outcome in future primaries as he does in Super Tuesday, which is that Trump wins at least a plurality of the votes and, with many future primaries being winner-take-all, Trump coasts to the convention with the majority of the delegates.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

February 27, 2016 at 6:35 pm

Posted in Politics

14 Responses

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  1. When i listen to Trump, i’m immediately seduced and found him very sympathic. And i do believe it’s a clever guy talking in a pleasant straightforward way. But i also have something – like a prescience, gut feeling – that he is a dangerous guy. You know, like the new boyfriend of a friend you feel will harm her – and generally do – without knowing exactly why. So i don’t like Cruz, i feel Rubio is empty and hypocritical, but i hope i’m mistaken about him, if ever he becomes president of the USA. Because i really love the USA …

    Bruno from Paris

    February 27, 2016 at 6:42 pm

  2. But we, in France, have had only bad presidents since Georges Pompidou, 40 years of bad leadership …

    Bruno from Paris

    February 27, 2016 at 6:45 pm

    • Restore the monarchy.

      The Undiscovered Jew

      February 27, 2016 at 7:56 pm

      • Bourbons or Bonapartes?


        February 27, 2016 at 9:16 pm

  3. My feeling on the ground here is that Cruz will win in Texas.


    February 27, 2016 at 6:53 pm

    • Yup. No state has a higher percentage of Republicans who are Hispanic than Texas. They are going to go with their homie Cruz.


      February 27, 2016 at 7:31 pm

  4. Even with a win in Texas Cruz will be too far behind Trump be the nominee.

    Rubio on the hand might be able to keep Trump from getting a majority of delegates if he wins in a few key states.

    To prevent this I recommend Trump and his supporters to start questioning Rubio about those homosexuality rumors. If there’s any truth to those rumors Rubio’s campaign is DOA and no amount of establishment support will save him. That leaves the establishment to choose between Trump and a Cruz campaign that can’t win and would have no establishment support even if Cruz were close.

    Look at the Radaronline article. There are two photos there. The one taken from a foam party is useless IMO, but the other clearly shows a young, shirtless Rubio dancing. No straight man does this. He should also be challenged to release more information about his arrest in a gay park and links to a gay pornographer. It’s time to mortally wound Rubio’s campaign: has learned that Presidential candidate Marco Rubio is hiding a gay secret in his past!

    Miami cops busted 18-year-old Marco at a notorious “cruising” spot for gay guys on the prowl for casual sex.

    And that’s not all!

    Radar viewed shocking photos — one allegedly showing the 44-year-old Florida senator at a man-fest “foam party” where he splashed about in an embarrassingly skimpy bathing suit.

    Another pic allegedly caught him performing a hunky gay dance after stripping down.

    “People in the gay community have told me it was well-known that Rubio frequented gay nightclubs,” political blogger Wayne Madsen told Radar. “And foam parties were almost exclusively gay events!” he added.

    The explosive revelations threaten to destroy the married father of four’s quest for the White House.

    Young Rubio’s escapades also landed him in trouble with the law.

    Official records obtained by Radar show the candidate was arrested along with two men at 9:37 p.m. on misdemeanor charges in Miami’s crime-plagued Alice C. Wainwright Park on May 23, 1990.

    Police Major Delrish Moss said: “It was very dark and had lots of trees. People went out there to smoke illegal substances, have sex, drink.”

    One of the men with Rubio, Angel Barrios, was later tied to a sensational gay porn case.

    Court records show that the charges, which included “failing to observe” an unspecified regulation, were dismissed.

    Rubio aide Todd Harris brushed off the episode, saying the youths were merely caught drinking beer after hours.

    But a local homeowners association complained in a newsletter that the park was a haven for “gang warfare, gunfire, prostitution (straight and gay), drug dealing and muggings.”

    Asked about his relationship with the GOP presidential hopeful, Barrios said: “I have nothing against gay people, but this is just so far from the truth.”

    The Undiscovered Jew

    February 27, 2016 at 7:55 pm

    • Miami is a crazy, f’ed up place. I attended the University of Miami and the party scene in that town is filled with gay music, flamboyant fashion and hard drugs like coke and ecstasy. It’s a Latin thing. And even the most machismo Latin guys are into it. All the clubs on South Beach, even the straight ones, would be considered flaming gay by any other measure. When I was down there a couple different frats even had foam parties, and these were very alpha roided up straight dudes. My point is: a Cuban guy dancing around with his shirt off in South Florida is pretty standard practice.


      February 27, 2016 at 9:25 pm

  5. Let’s take bets on the next prominent Republican politician to endorse Trump now that Christie has done so. I nominate Arnold Schwarzenegger.


    February 27, 2016 at 9:26 pm

    • Nah, Schwarzenegger is pozzed. I’ll guess Carson drops out and supports him after Tuesday.


      February 27, 2016 at 10:30 pm

  6. Epic rant by Trump’s senior policy advisor Stephen Miller, who used to hold that position for Jeff Sessions. Trump doesn’t do wonkery, he delegates it to first rate minds like Miller. Anyone still considering voting for Rubio after hearing this should be ashamed of themselves. I wonder what Red State would say.

    Andrew E.

    February 28, 2016 at 12:27 am

  7. Gothamette, I’m from Paris, France, but we are two millions in this circunstance. Still not all were borned in the capital but i did🙂

    You recognize lot’s of (“true”) parisian in the fact that (1) they don’t have TV (you have illimited access to all cinema for 19 euros /month) and lots of them (2) don’t have any driving license (like me) even if they’re over 30 yo (i use the city bikes, and its 2 euros a month).

    Bruno from Paris

    February 28, 2016 at 1:32 pm

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