Lion of the Blogosphere

Why Trump will win in November

Although the MSM has finally capitulated to the obvious, that Trump is going to be the Republican nominee, they still hold onto the fantasy that Republicans are doomed because Trump can’t possibly win in a general election. Only Republican primary voters can be that stupid, right?

The latest polls show Trump with a slight lead over Hillary in hypothetical one-to-one matchups in both Florida and Ohio, swing states where Romney lost to Obama in 2012.

How well did denying the results of polls showing Trump ahead among likely Republican primary voters work out for those pundits predicting his eventual defeat? Not very well.

It’s actually Democrats, not Republicans, who are preparing to nominate their weakest candidate. All the polls show Sanders to be a much stronger competitor against Republicans. Hillary is a very weak candidate. Nobody loves Hillary besides a handful of hardcore feminists who ignore the fact that she worked to cover up her husband’s rape of Juanita Broaddrick. Hillary is not a natural campaigner like her husband. She’s only winning the nomination because of the “Party Decides” rule.

One may ask, why does the “Party Decides” rule work this year for Democrats and not Republicans? Actually, what we learned this year is that the “Party Decides” rule no longer works for white voters. If only whites were allowed to vote in Democratic primaries, Bernie would win the nomination and not Hillary. However, Hillary is going to coast to a huge victory on Super Tuesday thanks to the support of black voters, and her momentum will sink Bernie.

Going back to Trump, there are those who say that Trump won’t have the support of the Party. That’s ridiculous nonsense. I do predict that a few media pundits and political strategists associated with supporting Republicans will make a public display of stating their support for Hillary. But actual elected politicians with real skin in the game, no way, they are going to support Trump. It’s a well known fact that presidential candidates have coattails. It’s in the political interests of the party as a whole to try to get Trump as many votes as possible, and it’s in the interest of each individual politician to suck up to the guy who may be the next president by supporting him. Chris Christie is only the first Republican politician to realize what will soon be obvious to all other Republican politicians.

The polls today still reflect the spin of the MSM that Trump is a bozo racist who has no chance of even winning the nomination of his own party, let alone the White House. But after Trump wins the Republican nomination in a much more decisive fashion than either Romney or McCain before him, and the Republican establishment starts publicly stating their support for him, he will gather to himself much social proof which he currently lacks, and this will push him several percentage points ahead of Hillary in the polls.

The notion that a significant number of Republican voters will not vote for him in November is already refuted by those polls I previously mentioned. However, to add some qualitative reasoning to that, Republican voters hate Hillary way more than they could ever dislike Trump, and they hate Obama even more than they hate Hillary, and the more Hillary tries to assume the mantle of Obama’s heir, the more Republicans will hate her. The Republican base will turn out enthusiastically to vote against Hillary, if nothing else.

And then we have that open Supreme Court seat. No TrueCon who cares about their ideology would ever want to allow Hillary to decide who gets nominated to the Court and swing the Court from conservative to liberal. Trump has already named two jurists whom he would like to nominate, and they are very conservative, the exact kind of jurists that TrueCons would want.

And then we have all of those scandals floating around Hillary. Bernie has been too much of a wuss to attack Hillary on those, but we know that Trump will attack every way possible. I especially think it’s interesting that all of these women who Clinton wronged, like Juanita Broaddrick, are waiting in the wings to help anyone take down Hillary. It’s an interesting application of so-called game/red-pill-analysis that these women weren’t very eager to say anything against the alpha-male who wronged them, but are now ready to get into the game to take down his shrew of a wife.

And finally, we get to Trump’s biggest advantage, which is that he speaks to white blue-collar Democrats. These are people who are not into the evangelical Christian stuff and their support for Democrats is passed down from parents who believed that Republicans are the party of the rich. And indeed, Republican support for lower taxes for the top 1% just confirms their impression. But Trump, instead of running on the usual Republican cocktail of tax breaks for the wealthy and outlawing abortion, is running on immigration and unfair trade practices of foreign countries which are taking jobs away from blue-collar Americans, and thumbing his nose at the political correctness which the blue-collar whites correctly see as snobbery against them by the elites who only care about helping blacks and Hispanics but view blue-collar whites as deserving of their economic plight because they were too stupid or too lazy to take advantage of their white privilege to get ahead.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

February 27, 2016 at 2:09 pm

Posted in Politics

34 Responses

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  1. The thing that you are missing is that you will see important parts of Conservatism Inc. openly supporting Hillary or at least calling for Republicans to vote 3rd party/not vote. The National Review, The Weekly Standard, Glenn Beck and Red State will all advocate voting for Hillary or not voting.

    Will this make a difference? I think not because the polls show it not being effective now when it is likely to be most potent, but it is still unprecedented and should not be written off.

    Otis the Sweaty

    February 27, 2016 at 2:19 pm

    • It’s not missing, I wrote “I do predict that a few media pundits and political strategists associated with supporting Republicans will make a public display of stating their support for Hillary.” That’s what I meant. But I think you are exaggerating their numbers. Supporting Hillary means supporting a leftist Supreme Court.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      February 27, 2016 at 2:22 pm

      • You still don’t get it.

        I too would support a leftist supreme court if it was the only way to stop a Marco Rubio or Rick Perry. The reason is that having an open borders leader of the GOP is catastrophic, and a Dem presidency and everything that goes with it is preferable.

        This is 1000x true for the TrueCons. A Trump presidency destroys Conservative Inc every bit as badly as WWII destroyed German National Socialism. American Conservatism is dead and buried for always if Trump wins the Presidency. The TrueCons are literally fighting for their very survival as a viable political movement.

        You are underestimating how desperate these people are and how far they will go to protect their bankrupt ideology.

        My thesis is just that there really are not that many TrueCons. Perhaps ~1 million, in which case we can lose them and still win the election pretty easily, so long as we hold on to the establishment types (I’m thinking win them over with a Kasich VP and lots of establishment endorsements made out of the desire for self preservation by party hacks).

        Otis the Sweaty

        February 27, 2016 at 2:39 pm

      • “A Trump presidency destroys Conservative Inc”

        No, a liberal Supreme Court destroys Conservative Inc, because even if they manage to get a conservative president in the future, the liberal Supreme Court will just rule all of his conservative policies unconstitutional.

        While I do sort of agree with you that there are some so dedicated to being TrueCon they would rather see Hillary win, they number in the few thousands, not a million.

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        February 27, 2016 at 2:41 pm

      • Conservatism, Inc. is dead of suicide. It didn’t need a Donald Trump to kill it.

        What other sorts of chaos will a Trump presidency cause? Think of the character of this man that you want in the Oval Office. Think of the cognitive abilities a president needs. In this sense I think he’d be another Bush. He is nowhere near as bright as he thinks he is. In fact…I think he’s intellectually mediocre. And his character is slime.


        February 27, 2016 at 4:37 pm

      • Liberal SCOTUS does not destroy Conservatism Inc because those creeps get paid to *whine* about liberalism, not to stop it or do anything positive. Like Boehner and McConnell they are fine starring in Failure Theater.


        February 27, 2016 at 6:18 pm

  2. Apparently, Trump University advised its attendees to get their credit card limits extended so that they could have capital to run quick real estate flips.

    That’s common practice for some of these real estate seminars, it scary to think that there’s still suckers of this magnitude born every minute. No one stops to think that if it was that easy banks or mom & pop neighborhood real estate brokerages would just do it themselves, without having to borrow the money on consumer credit at 10-20% interest like with a CC.

    On a bizarre related note I had a very SWPL roommate about a decade ago who went to one of these seminars, then started dating the black female administrator of the group who must’ve dazzled him with her “articulate” and fanciful tales of instant wealth. (she was not cute in the least) She convinced him to extend his credit card lines to “build up his credit profile” in order to run some “starter deals” then gave her limited power of attorney so they could work together – then one weekend she charged up over $20K in goods at Nordstrom and elsewhere… LMAO

    And to this day he still argues with me that it’s a viable play to use credit cards for getting yourself started in the flipping business. (and he graduated from a top 50 university, to boot)


    February 27, 2016 at 2:43 pm

  3. In last 24 hours Trump was endorsed by Gov Christie, Gov LePage and Former Gov Jan Brewer. These are all part of GOPe. The NY Times has an amazing article on GOPe trying to set up an anti-Trump campaign ( Interesting part is how Trump courted and won Christie’s vote. Rubio tried to get Christie but pissed him off. This demonstrates Trump has ability to be atctful and to persuade other GOP politicians to join him:

    “Mr. Rubio made a tentative overture to Mr. Christie after his withdrawal from the presidential race. He left the governor a voice mail message, seeking Mr. Christie’s support and assuring him that he had a bright future in public service, according to people who have heard Mr. Christie’s characterization of the message.

    Mr. Christie, 53, took the message as deeply disrespectful and patronizing, questioning why “a 44-year-old” was telling him about his future, said people who described his reaction on the condition of anonymity. Further efforts to connect the two never yielded a direct conversation.

    Mr. Trump, by contrast, made frequent calls to Mr. Christie once he dropped out, a person close to the governor said. After the two met at Trump Tower on Thursday with their wives, Mr. Christie flew to Texas and emerged on Friday to back Mr. Trump and mock Mr. Rubio as a desperate candidate near the end of a losing campaign.”


    February 27, 2016 at 2:44 pm

    • There is talk that Christie rewarded Jared Kushner handsomely.


      February 27, 2016 at 4:39 pm

  4. Trump has already started pivoting his rhetoric toward the general election – his positive comments about Planned Parenthood on Thursday were an example of that.

    Once he wraps up the nomination (which, for all intents and purposes, he can do by mid-March), he can start appealing more directly to Sanders voters. If 10% of Sanders voters defect and vote for Trump in November, that would be huge.

    One question for you, Lion. Assuming Trump dominates on Super Tuesday, as the polls predict, will he back out of next Thursday’s Fox debate? Trump could give a speech saying that it’s obvious he’s going to win the nomination, and that one reason Romney lost in 2012 is that Newt Gingrich and others dragged the nomination battle out, and the party shouldn’t repeat that mistake.

    Dave Pinsen

    February 27, 2016 at 2:52 pm

  5. The thing that you are missing is that you will see important parts of Conservatism Inc. openly supporting Hillary or at least calling for Republicans to vote 3rd party/not vote. The National Review, The Weekly Standard, Glenn Beck and Red State will all advocate voting for Hillary or not voting

    They can yap all they want for now, but when faced with the prospect of Bernillary all of these spoiled, intransingent cucks will still show up and vote for Trump in the national election, and in the same numbers they’ve always pulled the lever for the GOP. Their screeching helps Trump immensely at this point, because it piques the interest of disaffected, but traditional GOP proles who don’t have any enthusiasm for the endless series of same old, same old mainline Repubs that have been running amuck for the last 15 years.

    Trump rise is initiating a mass extinction event. It’s evolution at work, and a lot of old GOP dinosaurs will be finding themselves ill-suited to survive in the new ecosystem.


    February 27, 2016 at 2:54 pm

    • I’m not so sure about that. On Facebook I’m a member of group for fans of the Wall Street Journal’s daily column Best of the Web. The slice of Republican/Conservatives there are extremely hostile to Trump and many have said they’ll vote for Hillary over Trump.

      Mike Street Station

      February 28, 2016 at 11:45 am

      • Wall Street Republicans are tiny in actual voter numbers (but huge in their donor capicity) and mostly in New York which is going to vote Democratic anyway.

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        February 28, 2016 at 12:26 pm

  6. “I do predict that a few media pundits and political strategists associated with supporting Republicans will make a public display of stating their support for Hillary.”

    Let’s see, how about:

    – George Will?
    – Charles Krauthammer?
    – Michael Medved?
    – Hugh Hewitt?
    – Dana Perino?

    I also think it’s entirely possible you’ll see some establishment Republicans like Jeb Bush, Lindsay Graham, and John McCain say that they have no choice but to “reluctantly” support Hillary Clinton, because a Trump-led GOP is “not who we are” and is “on the wrong side of history.”

    Sgt. Joe Friday

    February 27, 2016 at 3:01 pm

    • Hewitt right now is on Twitter vowing to support Trump if he wins the nomination because Hillary Clinton is “1000%” worse and we can’t let the Supreme Court fall into liberal hands.


      February 27, 2016 at 3:56 pm

  7. Despite his prickly episode with Nikki Haley (they’ve apparently made nice-nice since then), Trump will soon start to pick up a big amount of vocal support from the GOP Governors in the South. (sans Greg Abbott, I guess)


    February 27, 2016 at 3:21 pm

  8. Actually Juanita did speak out when bill was President. She is speaking out against Hillary, presumably, because she resents the hypocrisy of Hillary running as a trail blazing heroine to women when according to Juania, Hillary not only knew about & tolerated Bill’s behavior, but tried to intimidate Juanita into silence in a very aggressive way:


    February 27, 2016 at 3:29 pm

  9. It’s weird that the GOPe is going to end up falling in line but that the TruCons, who I always believed would ultimately be on our side, are determined to fight the revolution to the bitter end.

    One thing we have in common with the GOPe is disgust for the TruCons with their crusades against sex-ed, gay marriage, contraception and abortion. In the end we will end up working together to annihilate the TruCon enemy.

    Otis the Sweaty

    February 27, 2016 at 3:31 pm

  10. Lion, you make a great point about the urgency of a pending Supreme Court nomination. Even the cucks at National Review and RedState, while they despise Trump, care a great deal about “muh Constitution” and the courts. I very much doubt that by the time October rolls around they’ll be advocating voting for Shrillary.

    In a way, batsh$t insane Glenn Beck may actually have had a point when he said God killed Scalia for the good of the nation. He just didn’t realize that what God had in mind was electing Donald Trump!


    February 27, 2016 at 3:33 pm

  11. If you want a good sense of the kind of blue collar voter Trump will bring in by the millions listen to this caller from yesterday on Michael Savage’s radio show. He comes on at 54:45.

    [audio src="" /]

    Andrew E.

    February 27, 2016 at 3:36 pm

  12. If only white people were allowed to vote in the Democratic primaries?

    Lol I didn’t know whites were banned from voting.


    February 27, 2016 at 5:00 pm

  13. A couple of things

    1. I don’t think it goes without saying that “Trump wins the Republican nomination in a much more decisive fashion than either Romney or McCain before him.” It seems just as possible that Cruz and Rubio put up a long fight with the hope of forcing the race into a brokered convention. Or Cruz could drop out and support Rubio, with a very close Trump-Rubio race ensuing.

    2. A presidential election is not some a beauty contest where the two candidates just stand on a stage happily being themselves until voting day. They engage in constant argument and attack. One thing you can say about the Clintons is that they play DIRTY. The other Republicans have not attacked Trump very hard prior to now, and most of their attacks have been of the “not a true conservative” variety, which don’t even appeal to most Republicans, let alone most Americans. Team Hillary will hammer Trump hard on the very issues that make him weakest in the eyes of prole whites: his use of foreign/illegal labor, his scams, and his support of massive tax cuts for the rich.

    3. Even if Trump does win some “Reagan Democrats” I am not sure the math works in his favor. Hispanics will vote less Republican than usual, and I imagine a lot of upper class whites will vote Hillary. If Obama does try to nominate that Republican governor to the Supreme Court, the idea of a Democrat appointing Scalia’s successor will no longer seem that scary. And besides, “picking the next Supreme Court justice” is really just code for “abortion” whichis not an argument that’s nearly as top-of-mind for most voters, even Republican voters, as our media suggests.


    February 27, 2016 at 5:03 pm

    • Trump is a two issue candidate, and those issues are so important to his supporters that they’ll overlook the fact that he’s definitely no conservative. I agree on the abortion business; like gay marriage, the overwhelming majority of voters don’t care, though they don’t like “legislation from the bench”. Trump can probably beat Dems over the head with that.


      February 28, 2016 at 11:16 am

      • Allowing TrueCons to define the meaning of “conservative.”

        Abortion has been legal for 43 years in the U.S., and is legal in just about every civilized majority-white nation. How much longer before it can be conservative to just accept it and move on?

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        February 28, 2016 at 12:23 pm

  14. If you’re so sure of yourself, go make a killing on PredictIt


    February 27, 2016 at 5:06 pm

  15. Your last paragraph was brilliant. A++. Sums up modern America in a nutshell.


    February 27, 2016 at 5:33 pm

  16. Great post Lion! One of your best.

    National Review is already hinting at a pro-Hillary stand. The are starting to panic over there, and the comments sections have gone completely insane.

    February 27, 2016 at 5:47 pm

  17. Lion, any thoughts about Trump’s vow to toughen libel law? Very disppointing in my mind, and a direct threat to bloggers like you.

    Juan DeShawn Arafat

    February 27, 2016 at 6:03 pm

  18. “One may ask, why does the “Party Decides” rule work this year for Democrats and not Republicans? Actually, what we learned this year is that the “Party Decides” rule no longer works for white voters.”

    No, the Democratic Party Decides because it stacks its convention with over 500 non-elected superdelegates. These are the party insiders who, as explained by their brain dead chairman Debbie Wasserman Schultz, keep the party from being controlled by the riffraff.

    As a Republican, I’m proud that our convention has only a relative handful of these–only state chairs and members of the national committee (150 total). EVERY other delegate is chosen in a primary or through the caucus/district or state convention process. Again, which party reflects the preferences of its membership better?


    February 27, 2016 at 8:36 pm

  19. Sanders supporters claim he’s more electable because he polls better against Republicans, but such polls mean jack-all at this point. Republicans know Sanders is the weaker candidate. He has not come down under intense scrutiny; the screws haven’t been put to him.

    Recall the last race for the Republican nomination. You had a flavor of the week, and the candidate would draw more intense media scrutiny before flaming out. This already happened with Carson. Trump’s been able weather these storms, but come time for the general election, I say he’s doomed*.

    *He wins if the economy takes a 2008-like dump or if there’s a major terrorist attack on U.S. soil. Barring such events, your boy is goin’ down.


    February 27, 2016 at 9:48 pm

  20. One thing I don’t get: if Trump is popular because people are so sick of the establishment then the establishment increasingly endorsing Trump should hurt Trump in future primaries, shouldn’t it? I mean he can’t be both anti-establishment and also so easily supported by the establishment. To me, the fact that more and more establishment types are giving in to a Trump nomination only proves that the real anti-establishment candidate is Cruz.

    Does Lion really believe that Bernie Sanders would be a stronger general election candidate than Hilary? The ability to win over Democratic primary voters, particularly younger liberal activists, usually indicates that a candidate will lose in November. And let’s remember that Sanders is Jewish and a socialist. America has never elected anyone from either of these categories. Also, it makes little sense to say that Republican voters hate Hilary so much that they’d’ vote for anyone running against her. What could be worse than 4 years of Hilary, you ask? Four years of Hilary-like policies from a nominally Republican President Trump, which further reduces the influence of Truecons within the party and make the job of the conservative movement even harder. Political activists are in it for the long haul and know that anything that sets back the cause of conservatism is a bad idea, even if it means a temporary win for “our side.” Trump coming up with two names of conservative appointees to SCOTUS is meaningless. It could easily just be a direct lie. Trump has no history as a politician for us to judge him by. Also, aren’t you stating that Truecons are essentially prisoners then – stuck with whoever the Republican party nominates? We know from previous elections that this isn’t true. And it to imply that it is, is a poor way of trying to win people over.

    It is starting to look like Rubio is the only one with a chance to beat Trump. I may have to rethink my support for Cruz. But if Trump is nominated I’ll vote for Hilary if it looks like Trump has any chance of winning. If Hilary is comfortably ahead I’ll go Constitution Party on the theory that one good “revolution” deserves another.


    February 27, 2016 at 11:21 pm

  21. Blacks and Hispanics will vote for Hillary.

    The top one third of Whites will vote for Hillary.

    The lumpen in the bottom third of Whites will vote for Hillary.

    The rest will vote Trump.

    Ergo Hillary wins


    February 28, 2016 at 12:44 am

    • The bottom third of whites are ultra low-information voters who will vote for Trump because he’s on TV. He’ll also take a much, much larger percentage of the black vote than a Repub normally would, because of immigration.


      February 28, 2016 at 11:19 am

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