Lion of the Blogosphere

New post-Nevada national poll has Trump at 49%!

Link to CNN/ORC poll.

Trump 49%
Rubio 16%
Cruz 15%
Carson 10%
Kasich 6%

I’ve been saying for a long time that the social proof of Trump winning early primaries and caucuses would increase his support, and that Trump’s “ceiling” of support would be well over 50%.

We see my predictions coming true in this most recent CNN/ORC poll.

This poll also points out that Trump is actually weakest in the South where he has to deal with the Super Tuesday primary. If Trump wins every state except for Texas (likely based on polls), Trump is unstoppable in less evangelical states where Trump is even stronger. The bellwether for how well Trump will do after Super Tuesday is how well he does in Massachusetts.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

February 29, 2016 at 9:29 am

Posted in Politics

17 Responses

Subscribe to comments with RSS.

  1. I always knew Trump would be weakest in the South even when idiot Nate Silver was still counting on blue state Republicans to topple Trump.

    The problem with the South is that it is filled with Stupid Christians who are voting for Rubio or Cruz because they want the biggest religious fanatic in the race. We must take away the right to vote in primaries from Stupid Christians! They have ruined America.

    Otis the Sweaty

    February 29, 2016 at 10:33 am

    • Otis, we know you claim to hate us but rest assured that Trump is not less successful here with traditional GOP voters here in the South because he is unliked by Evangelicals. It’s just that so many older Evangelical Southern GOP voters have already made a strong connection with the very outwardly and vocally religious Cruz or Carson, and they are trying to stay the course.

      When the main election comes they will still do their part and vote for Trump and have high turnout, just like they did in 2008 and 2012. Can you say the same for “core Americans” elsewhere?


      February 29, 2016 at 12:30 pm

    • And since you’re obsessed with pointing the finger at “Stupid Christians” might I remind you that not a single evangelical-heavy state voted for Obama in either 2008 or 2012, except for the close 2008 vote in NC where Obama probably still lost by .50% or so. (but no official recount was necessary because NC didn’t matter)

      So, don’t like that our government is now packed with the many fruits, nuts, La Raza enthusiasts, BLMers and wise Latina lesbians who’ve gotten the lion’s share of influential government posts and Supreme Court appointments for the 7 last years? Well, that can’t be blamed on us. It’s quite clear that the blame goes up and to the right on the electoral map – I’ll just say it that way and leave it at that.


      February 29, 2016 at 1:19 pm

    • Camlost: if it wasn’t for your people Trump would have already won the nomination. Your peoples obsession with Christian identity politics has also been devastating towards building a pan white front against immigrants and liberals.

      Take responsibility.

      Otis the Sweaty

      February 29, 2016 at 1:53 pm

      • He’s gonna win the nomination anyway, Otis. So what if he loses Iowa or some other inconsequential places, the net result is more free advertising for him along the way until he slams the door on Super Tuesday. It doesn’t need to be an easy path for him, he’s a white man so he’s not too good to work just like the rest of us. He can haul his arse out there on the road, campaign and pay some dues laboring to win hearts and minds, it can only make him a better leader.

        And “my people”? lol, you’ll have to ask Eric Holder about that stuff.

        Aren’t you in the Obama-loving, DiBlasio- and Hillary-electing Northeast? Sanctuary city of NYC, I think?

        If we Southerners really were the last holdouts refusing to join this mythical pan-white Holy League that you’ve had staged and ready up there then I would gladly take responsibility. I guess we were too far away to get the memo through the underground network. And while I admire and welcome such ambition, before such grand schemes can become possible I’m pretty sure we’ve got to at least get national consciousness to a point where the we are no longer electing anti-colonial socialist transformationalists.


        February 29, 2016 at 3:56 pm

      • Christian identity politics is a mainly southern thing. There is some of it in the midwest but it it Christian identity politics which has kept Trump from getting 45% of the vote in SC and will keep him from getting in the 40s in other SEC states. It is southern created and sustained Christian identity politics which robbed us of IA and are about to steal TX from us. The Stupid Christians of the South are single handedly keeping Marco Rubio afloat.

        Fortunately enough people in the South are starting to wake up from Christian identity politics, but the polls show that it still has an extremely strong hold down there and it is still a danger, albeit an increasingly remote one, to our beloved Leader.

        Otis the Sweaty

        February 29, 2016 at 4:34 pm

      • I’ll be voting GA primary tomorrow, Trump’s running between 32 and 39% in every local news station poll here.

        I’m predicting that they’ve underestimated the rural vote and he will get 43% to 45% or more tomorrow once it’s all said and done.


        February 29, 2016 at 6:32 pm

  2. “And you know what they say about men with small hands — you can’t trust them!” Rubio joked.”

    Never heard that. Is it something they say in the gay community?


    February 29, 2016 at 10:47 am

    • Actually, it’s something southern women say.

      Near Vicksburg

      February 29, 2016 at 1:42 pm

  3. It looks like Trump will lose Arkansas, Minnesota, and maybe Colorado.


    February 29, 2016 at 10:55 am

    • What all three states have in common is that there haven’t been any recent polls. I believe the voters there are closer to recent polls in similar states than polls taken in those states before Trump’s winning NH-SC-NV trifecta.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      February 29, 2016 at 11:27 am

      • Well yes, there are no recent polls in Colorado. I just checked the RC polling average on Nov 13 (when the Colorado poll was taken) and it has Trump and Carson tied, with Rubio a distant third. The Colorado poll is similar but with a large chunk of support going from Trump to Rubio. So if we took today’s national polls and shifted a chunk from Trump to Rubio, that would suggest a Rubio win. However I think that there is a good chance that Rubio won’t perform as well as his polls tomorrow. So I think that we are looking at a tossup between Trump and Rubio.

        The Minnesota poll is somewhat recent but it was a close 3-way race then so the question becomes whether Trump’s momentum beats Rubio and Cruz’s potential to consolidate votes. I have no idea which way this race will go, but probably not to Cruz.

        The Arkansas poll is from this month and it looks like Cruz will be able to dip into Carson’s support to narrowly maintain his need. Arkansas and north-eastern Texas (along with western Tennessee) are very similar places and parts of Arkansas share a media market with parts of Texas. I think that Arkansas leans to Cruz.

        So worst case scenario Cruz picks up Texas and Arkansas, and Rubio picks up Colorado and Minnesota. Best case is that Cruz just gets Texas and Rubio gets nothing.


        February 29, 2016 at 1:24 pm

      • There is no presidential contest in Colorado. They’re just electing county delegates. Colorado picks national delegates in April.

        Minnesota is an upper Midwest caucus state. Usually enthusiasm dominates in those contests. That should help Trump and Cruz to finish well ahead of Rubio.

        I’ve heard so many rumors that Huck will endorse before Super Tuesday, but he doesn’t seem to be doing it. That leaves AR up for grabs.


        February 29, 2016 at 6:21 pm

  4. Super Tuesday may well settle things in both parties, as the scheme was designed to do.

    Trump puts it away with either a sweep of everything on March 1st but Texas, or he can defeat Kasich in Ohio and Rubio in Florida later on, which would effectively end both of those campaigns. He can defeat Cruz one on one in the later contests so he doesn’t really need Texas. His opponents have to hope to win their home states, a few other states in March, and then hope that the proportional delegate allocation rules produce a brokered convention. They also have to keep going until then, which will be a problem for Kasich.

    On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton can put it away in March 1st by winning everything but Vermont. If she doesn’t get a sweep, Sanders can limp along if he can get a couple of wins outside Vermont, but he won’t overcome her edge in super delegates. When he started his campaign, I thought the Democrats had gone so far down the road of a high-low, wealthy suburban whites plus blacks coalition that there was no turning back for them, and actually Sanders has gotten more support than I expected but its really too late for them to turn back.


    February 29, 2016 at 12:17 pm

  5. 49%? Lion, I would now say the Presidency is Trump’s to lose.


    February 29, 2016 at 6:27 pm

Comments are closed.

%d bloggers like this: