Super Tuesday predictions
(1) Trump will win every state except Texas.
(2) Trump will perform better than expected based on what people think the state polls say (except perhaps in Texas where Cruz surely has a ground game advantage given that it’s his home state). Perhaps a lot better. Remember that Trump outperformed the polls in New Hampshire (a primary state) and Nevada (a caucus state).
The reasons why Trump didn’t especially outperform polls in South Carolina is that he had a bad week going into South Carolina.
Trump has had a very good week going into Super Tuesday. He won a big win in Nevada. He did fine in the debate; he was the way Trump normally is but there were no shocking attacks on Republican orthodoxy and no booing of him like in the debate before South Carolina. Trump received a huge endorsement from Christ Christie and a significant endorsement from Jeff Sessions (Cruz supporters know who he is, as do all of the voters in Alabama). These endorsements boost Trump’s social proof.
Trump has momentum. The most recent polls released today show a huge surge for Trump. 49% in a national poll, 51% in Massachusets, 42% in Alabama, these are the best numbers that Trump has polled ever and they are coming in right before the big day.
(3) The mainstream media (MSM) spin will be that Trump had a huge victory and is unstoppable. Some people may think it’s surprising that the MSM will spin things in Trump’s favor, because everyone knows they hate Trump.
The media’s spin is based on expectations, and not only will Trump beat the expectations of polls of the last two weeks, but Trump will totally demolish what were the long-term expectations of the MSM. For months and months, the MSM did not believe that polls showing Trump in the lead would translate into real votes in real elections. They always believed that Trump would magically disappear and a “serious” candidate would show up on Super Tuesday to supplant Trump, if it didn’t happen before then.
Cruz’s win in Texas will be discounted as Cruz only being able to win his home state. Which is the correct analysis.