Lion of the Blogosphere

Archive for February 2016

Democratic South Carolina Primary

In case anyone wants to write any comments.

And there are some live Tweets on my Twitter feed.

But there isn’t much to say. Hillary crushed Bernie because of massive black support for Hillary. Democratic primary voters are too black for Bernie to have any hope of winning the nomination.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

February 27, 2016 at EDT pm

Posted in Politics

Texas is a win-win for Trump

From a WaPo article:

Ironically, the first key for Rubio in Tuesday’s balloting involves cheering for a Trump victory over Cruz in Texas, which would embarrass the freshman senator in his home state and block his path forward.

This makes Texas a state where Donald Trump can’t lose in the long run, no matter what the outcome.

If Trump actually wins Texas, he picks up a lot of delegates. Even though Texas isn’t a winner-take-all state, there are still a lot of delegates, and the guy with the highest vote total picks up more of them than anyone else.

A win in Texas probably means that the turnout for Trump was actually higher across all of the Super Tuesday states than currently predicted by the polls. A resounding sweep of Super Tuesday, picking up lots of delegates, will make Trump unstoppable even if Cruz drops out the next day because he couldn’t even win his home state.

Rubio can dream that he can finally start winning if only Cruz drops out, but it won’t turn out that way in reality. Not after Trump gains massive social proof from such a resounding win on Super Tuesday. Current polls show Rubio losing to Trump in a head-on contest, even in Rubio’s home state of Florida.

On the other hand, if Cruz wins Texas (as currently predicted by polls) and Cruz stays in the race, then the anti-Trump vote continues to be split between Cruz and Rubio, and Trump should have the same outcome in future primaries as he does in Super Tuesday, which is that Trump wins at least a plurality of the votes and, with many future primaries being winner-take-all, Trump coasts to the convention with the majority of the delegates.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

February 27, 2016 at EDT pm

Posted in Politics

Another explanation of Trump

Offered only for amusement, don’t take it seriously.

* * *

As the elites are aware, but never talk about publicly, the average white person is inherently racist. This racism is kept in check only through rigorous censorship of the media (both news and entertainment) combined with the proactive insertion of memes which promote anti-racism. Censorship is also expanded to places outside of media such as schools and the workplace. The racists call this “political correctness,” but luckily their power is small compared to the vast power of the elites in the media, education, and corporate America.

Trump is extremely dangerous because he has shown that he has the ability to not be checked by the usual methods of censorship. Trump has the power to tear down the edifice against racism built up by the elites since the 1960s and turn America into a racist nation once again. And racism is the greatest possible evil. Trump must be stopped at any cost.

* * *

Once again, only offered for amusement, don’t take it seriously.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

February 27, 2016 at EDT pm

Posted in Politics

Why Trump will win in November

Although the MSM has finally capitulated to the obvious, that Trump is going to be the Republican nominee, they still hold onto the fantasy that Republicans are doomed because Trump can’t possibly win in a general election. Only Republican primary voters can be that stupid, right?

The latest polls show Trump with a slight lead over Hillary in hypothetical one-to-one matchups in both Florida and Ohio, swing states where Romney lost to Obama in 2012.

How well did denying the results of polls showing Trump ahead among likely Republican primary voters work out for those pundits predicting his eventual defeat? Not very well.

It’s actually Democrats, not Republicans, who are preparing to nominate their weakest candidate. All the polls show Sanders to be a much stronger competitor against Republicans. Hillary is a very weak candidate. Nobody loves Hillary besides a handful of hardcore feminists who ignore the fact that she worked to cover up her husband’s rape of Juanita Broaddrick. Hillary is not a natural campaigner like her husband. She’s only winning the nomination because of the “Party Decides” rule.

One may ask, why does the “Party Decides” rule work this year for Democrats and not Republicans? Actually, what we learned this year is that the “Party Decides” rule no longer works for white voters. If only whites were allowed to vote in Democratic primaries, Bernie would win the nomination and not Hillary. However, Hillary is going to coast to a huge victory on Super Tuesday thanks to the support of black voters, and her momentum will sink Bernie.

Going back to Trump, there are those who say that Trump won’t have the support of the Party. That’s ridiculous nonsense. I do predict that a few media pundits and political strategists associated with supporting Republicans will make a public display of stating their support for Hillary. But actual elected politicians with real skin in the game, no way, they are going to support Trump. It’s a well known fact that presidential candidates have coattails. It’s in the political interests of the party as a whole to try to get Trump as many votes as possible, and it’s in the interest of each individual politician to suck up to the guy who may be the next president by supporting him. Chris Christie is only the first Republican politician to realize what will soon be obvious to all other Republican politicians.

The polls today still reflect the spin of the MSM that Trump is a bozo racist who has no chance of even winning the nomination of his own party, let alone the White House. But after Trump wins the Republican nomination in a much more decisive fashion than either Romney or McCain before him, and the Republican establishment starts publicly stating their support for him, he will gather to himself much social proof which he currently lacks, and this will push him several percentage points ahead of Hillary in the polls.

The notion that a significant number of Republican voters will not vote for him in November is already refuted by those polls I previously mentioned. However, to add some qualitative reasoning to that, Republican voters hate Hillary way more than they could ever dislike Trump, and they hate Obama even more than they hate Hillary, and the more Hillary tries to assume the mantle of Obama’s heir, the more Republicans will hate her. The Republican base will turn out enthusiastically to vote against Hillary, if nothing else.

And then we have that open Supreme Court seat. No TrueCon who cares about their ideology would ever want to allow Hillary to decide who gets nominated to the Court and swing the Court from conservative to liberal. Trump has already named two jurists whom he would like to nominate, and they are very conservative, the exact kind of jurists that TrueCons would want.

And then we have all of those scandals floating around Hillary. Bernie has been too much of a wuss to attack Hillary on those, but we know that Trump will attack every way possible. I especially think it’s interesting that all of these women who Clinton wronged, like Juanita Broaddrick, are waiting in the wings to help anyone take down Hillary. It’s an interesting application of so-called game/red-pill-analysis that these women weren’t very eager to say anything against the alpha-male who wronged them, but are now ready to get into the game to take down his shrew of a wife.

And finally, we get to Trump’s biggest advantage, which is that he speaks to white blue-collar Democrats. These are people who are not into the evangelical Christian stuff and their support for Democrats is passed down from parents who believed that Republicans are the party of the rich. And indeed, Republican support for lower taxes for the top 1% just confirms their impression. But Trump, instead of running on the usual Republican cocktail of tax breaks for the wealthy and outlawing abortion, is running on immigration and unfair trade practices of foreign countries which are taking jobs away from blue-collar Americans, and thumbing his nose at the political correctness which the blue-collar whites correctly see as snobbery against them by the elites who only care about helping blacks and Hispanics but view blue-collar whites as deserving of their economic plight because they were too stupid or too lazy to take advantage of their white privilege to get ahead.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

February 27, 2016 at EDT pm

Posted in Politics

The Trump “University” scam

Comment from “Richard”:

I think Trump University is a much more serious problem than Trump’s taxes or conservative heterodoxy or whatever other piddling issue has been thrown against him. It’s easy to understand, it took advantage of the regular people whom Trump argues he’s best equipped to defend, it was kitschy and vulgar, and no one can defend it honestly as a worthy enterprise. (Trump’s bankruptcies can be dismissed as reasonable investments that just didn’t work out, since no one with his number of investments has a perfect batting average.)

Basically, it’s a validating symbol for every criticism ever made against Trump.

I agree with this.

The question, however, is why hasn’t this even come up until now? And even though it came up at the debate, it was just one of a half-dozen attacks that Rubio used against Trump.

I think the simple answer to the question is that the opposition is just plain stupid. They lack the intelligence of myself and the people who comment on my blog. As you know, the Republican Party’s top strategist, Karl Rove, didn’t even graduate from college.

Luckily, Hillary has a lot of worse scandals surrounding her, so this won’t prevent Trump from becoming the next president.

* * *

Why would students say they were satisfied even though they were ripped off? The obvious psychological explanation is that it’s psychologically painful for people to admit that they were scammed. The consistency principle causes people to want to affirm that they made the right choice.

You know that you have a really good scam when the people who you scammed are satisfied victims.

* * *

Peter from Long Island writes in a comment:

It’s easy to dismiss the victims as naive and/or greedy schmucks who deserved to lose their money. Having been trapped in the straight commission life insurance pyramid scam myself, I am more understanding. People who run scams are *extremely* persuasive. No matter how world-wise and sophisticated you may think you are, you’re no match for them.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

February 27, 2016 at EDT am

Posted in Politics, Psychology

Chris Christie endorses Trump

Yes, this is huge. I’m blogging from the Metrpolitan Museum of Art on my iPhone. Will have a lot more to say later.

* * *

Obviously this is great news for Trump because he needed some social proof. For more than half a year, the MSM has been saying that Trump is a bozo who can’t possibly win the nomination and he’s also an evil racist. So Trump needs social proof like this to let people know that it’s OK to vote for him, respectable governors like Christie support him.

And Christie is pretty well respected among Republicans. His endorsement is big enough that 1 to 2 points could come off of Rubio and move to Trump, and that would make a huge difference.

And this endorsement comes before the crucial Super Tuesday primaries. Christie gave Trump his endorsement when it will do Trump a lot of good.

It’s also common sense for Christie. Getting on Trump’s good side when Trump is likely to be the next president of the United States makes a lot of sense. This has to put Christie at the top of Trump’s short list of vice presidential picks. It’s always good advice to pick for vice president someone who also ran for the nomination but lost.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

February 26, 2016 at EDT pm

Posted in Politics

The attacks on Trump

Trump “University”: This was a pretty bogus business. Trump should be ashamed of himself for letting his name be associated with that. Does the guy have no shame?

While I would love someone with the demeanor of Mitt Romney to be president, unfortunately that’s not going to happen. In fact, the upper-class demeanor of Mitt Romney turned off the blue-collar white voters he needed to win states like Ohio. Trump will crush Hillary in Ohio.

Trump ties made in China: I think that putting a billionaire real estate developer’s name on a tie is ridiculous. Who would buy such a tie? And Why would Trump want to get involved with a silly side business like that anyway? Does he really want his name everywhere that badly?

But of course the ties are made in China or some other place with low wages. Nothing is manufactured in the United States. During the last week on this blog, we mentioned that luxury paper notebooks like Moleskine and Baron Fig, and eyeglass frames and lenses are all manufactured in China. Good luck buying anything manufactured in America.

No, I don’t find it hypocritical for someone to say we need to do something about China stealing all of our jobs, while personally taking advantage of cheap Chinese labor to cut business costs. I don’t expect any businessman to voluntarily take on much higher costs when every other business isn’t doing that.

And for that matter, I don’t find it hypocritical for Warren Buffett to speak out against the tax breaks he personally takes advantage of. Every rich person takes advantage of those same tax breaks. Why should Buffett pay higher taxes? He has already done his part to advise Congress to take away the tax break. But Congress refuses to listen to him. At least the Republicans in Congress refuse to listen to him.

Polish illegal immigrants working on his construction project: Probably the thing with construction projects is that you hire a bunch of contractors who then hire subcontractors, and you don’t look too closely about whether everyone is 100% legal with how they obtain their workers. That’s probably standard operating procedure in New York City real estate. If you were to take the attitude of Rubio, you would never eat out at a restaurant or hire a lawncare company, because there’s such a good chance those businesses have illegal workers.

Also this happened more than 30 years ago. Before Rubio was arrested for doing only God knows what in a parked car with a gay pornography producer.

Tax returns: I don’t know what anyone expects to find in his tax returns. Nothing interesting has ever been found in a candidate’s tax returns, except that they make a lot more money than the average voter. Ted’s returns would be the most interesting because I’d like to know how much money his wife is making at Goldman Sachs.

Maybe Trump is doing with his tax returns what Obama did with his birth certificate? He’s going to hide them for a while and let everyone go crazy making a big deal about them, and then release them in October making everyone seem silly because whatever’s actually in them is going to be a lot more boring than the speculation.

Israel: Trump was Grand Marshal of the Israel parade in 2004. That should be enough said! The Jerusalem Post also says: “[Trump] has consistently and strongly supported Israeli positions on many critical issues, including the Iran nuclear deal and Israeli- Palestinian relations. He has also criticized US President Barack Obama for his attitudes toward Israel and warmly praised Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.” Although the stupid leftist Jerusalem Post hates Trump anyway because he’s against immigration. Suicidal liberal Jews would rather have an Israel-hating immigrant-loving Muslim-loving Barack Obama in the White House so they can feel morally superior to the working-class whites (including working-class Jewish whites).

UPDATE:
Trump’s use of seasonal foreign workers: Every hotel and resort takes advantage of H-2B visa workers. Once again, why is Trump going to put his hotels at a huge disadvantage over every other hotel? As a businessman, he’s going to take advantage of the laws to make as much money as possible. That’s what I would do if I owned a business.

* * *

In a case of me missing the obvious last night, I’ll point out now that all of these attacks against Trump came from Rubio, a guy who in all previous debates avoided sparring with Trump.

Rubio obviously entered the debate having memorized all of these anti-Trump talking points, prepared to use them against Trump as he did.

But as I wrote last night, this is too little too late. I don’t see anything about this debate changing the current polls which show Trump winning every state on Tuesday except for Texas, which will be won by Cruz and not by Rubio. Cruz will then say he won two states to Rubio’s zero states, he has way more delegates than Rubio (even though TX isn’t winner-take-all, Cruz is still going to win a hell of a lot of delegates there), polls show Rubio losing in Florida, it’s Rubio who should drop out and not Cruz.

Of course Rubio won’t drop out, and neither will Cruz, and Rubio and Cruz will split the anti-Trump vote until Trump has won the majority of delegates.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

February 26, 2016 at EDT am

Posted in Politics

Quick post-debate analysis

People seem to think that Rubio had a good debate. It certainly wasn’t horrible like his New Hampshire performance, but I think it’s too little too late.

The first forty minutes of the debate spent talking about immigration benefits Trump no matter what was said. Everyone knows Trump is the strongest candidate on immigration. It’s why the media hates him so much.

CNN completely dissed Kasich and Carson who barely had any chance to speak and the cameras most of the time only showed Rubio, Trump and Cruz on the stage.

The feeling you get from watching the debate is that Trump is the leader and everyone else knows it, and like the immigration issue, this helps Trump regardless of what is actually said.

My conclusion is that Trump just needed to not have a bad debate in order to retain his momentum and sweep Super Tuesday (except for Texas), and Trump did that. Nothing bad happened. Trump threw out some personal insults, but that is what he has done every debate. We are now used to it. It’s not a negative for Trump anymore, it just hurts the guys he insults.

Also, either the audience was a lot friendlier to Trump this debate, or Trump didn’t say anything unexpected that would cause establishment Republicans to boo him. Not sure which is the case.

* * *

The new Bloomberg poll shows that Trump will sweep Super Tuesday (except probably for Texas) because the anti-Trump vote is split between Rubio and Cruz. If everyone dropped out except for Rubio, the same poll shows it would be a lot closer with Trump having only a four point lead. But of course, the other candidates are NOT going to drop out. At least not until after Super Tuesday, at which time it will be too late.

Trump is actually weakest in the South. Trump is strongest in blue states where Republican voters are predominantly non-evangelical prole whites (because the college-educated whites in blue states are almost all Democrats and they don’t vote in the Republican primary).

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

February 25, 2016 at EDT pm

Posted in Politics

GOP Debate! Live updates

Any thoughts shorter than 140 characters will be on my Twitter feed.

You may comment here.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

February 25, 2016 at EDT pm

Posted in Politics

Review of the Baron Fig “Confidant” (paper) notebook

My Baron Fig “Confidant” notebook arrived in the mail today. That’s a paper notebook, not a computer.

Baron Fig, it’s kind of a weird name for a premium notebook company. Sounds like some sort of small sweet fruit, similar to a royal date.

I discovered these surfing the web after I blogged about Moleskine notebooks a few days ago.

The argument against Molekine is that you are supporting a huge publicly traded Italian corporation and the notebooks aren’t even made in Italy, they’re made in China. With cheap paper that’s said to suck with fountain pens. Although the Baron Figs are also, presumably, made in China (what isn’t made in China?), at least you are supporting four hipsters in New York City instead of a big Italian corporation. And the Baron Fig hipsters claim to have made improvements to their notebook. Maybe they did, maybe it’s just marketing bogusness. The Confidant has a nice clothbound hardcover and it comes in a single color, light gray. This lack of color choice is actually an advantage from a branding perspective. In case I ever see someone else using a clothbound notebook that’s the same color, I will know that we are both members of the same exclusive club. I also give Baron Fig credit for not emblazing their logo anywhere plainly visible (it’s printed at an out-of-the-way location on the inner back cover). As Paul Fussell could tell you, big legible logos are prole.

Missing from the Confidant is an elastic strap to hold the book closed. It was my understanding that the elastic strap was one of the key features of the Moleskine. Maybe it’s not so key after all?

The only place to buy a Baron Fig (that I know of) is from their website, and the price is $16, which includes free shipping from their warehouse in Long Island City. A few dollars less expensive than a Moleskine, plus you get better paper and all those other alleged improvements.

To test the fountain-pen-friendliness of the paper, I wrote a line of text with my fine-nibbed Lamy Studio filled with Waterman Florida Blue ink. Pass. No bleed-through. And now that I’ve broken it in by writing in it, I hopefully won’t feel too intimidated by the high cost to write more stuff in it.

Except I have no idea what I’m supposed to write in it or why I need it. It was more of a “wow that looks cool” impulse purchase rather than something I have any need for. If I had a job at a company where they have meetings at which notebook computers are banned, I suppose I could use the Confidant to take old-school pen-and-paper notes, but I never worked for that kind of a company, and I don’t have any job now at all.

The marketing material says that their notebooks are “for creative people and their ideas.” The problem is that I must not be very creative. Surely if I were creative, I would have had a much better life experience than being middle-aged without any prospect of finding a job worthy of my talents, or even a crappy cubicle job that’s beneath me. I guess that companies like Baron Fig sell the hope that maybe your problem is not a lack of creativity, but the lack of a high quality and expensive notebook in which to write those lucrative creative ideas which, until now, just got lost.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

February 25, 2016 at EDT pm

Posted in Nerdy stuff

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