Lion of the Blogosphere

Super Tuesday analysis

I predicted that Trump would win every state except Texas, and my prediction was wrong.

Cruz also won Oklahoma. And it looks like Rubio is going to win Minnesota. Trump looks like he’s going to win Vermont, but Kasich is very close and it has not been called yet.

Trump is still heavily in the lead. Marco “the Boy Wonder” Rubio, besides his big win Minnesota, had a bad night coming in third in most states.

As I did predict, the media spin is that Trump was “dominant.”

Trump sounded very presidential in his victory speech and impromptu press conference.

Trump is at about 49% in Massachusetts (but with not quite all precincts counted) demonstrating that Trump’s “ceiling” is a lot higher than people thought it was.

I think that with the social proof from winning the lion’s share of states and delegates tonight, the spin from the MSM that Trump is unstoppable, the fact that Cruz who is clearly in second place is not competitive outside of the Bible Belt, Trump should be able to win the majority of delegates by March 15th.

It’s clear that Rubio and Cruz will both refuse to drop out, so there is little chance that the voters will rally around a single anti-Trump candidate.

* * *

About Rubio’s close second place in Virginia.

The DC suburbs went heavily for Rubio. That’s where the GOPe actually lives. We already knew that the GOPe was heavily in favor of Rubio.

The rest of Virginia is a Bible Belt state, and the Bible Belters like Rubio because he says that women who were raped shouldn’t be allowed to abort the demon-spawn of their rapist.

* * *

About Cruz’ win in Oklahoma.

It borders Texas.

Cruz always considered Oklahoma, Arkansas and Texas his three strongest states. Cruz only won two of them.

Oklahoma had a closed primary, only registered Republicans could vote. That hurts Trump because he gets a lot of support from Independents.

Oklahoma doesn’t have much predictive power for the rest of the country.

* * *

About Rubio’s win in Minnesota. I’m stumped. Some of my commenters had a better handle on this. I congratulate them.

But Minnesota is a caucus state, and I think one takeaway is that caucus states are difficult for Trump, Nevada notwithstanding. Luckily for Trump, the vast majority of delegates are given out in primary states.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

March 1, 2016 at 11:12 pm

Posted in Politics

23 Responses

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  1. I think it was probably good enough, but I think that his bungling during the last few days cost him some support, and that leaves the door open for anti-Trumpism to continue. There are four states going on March 5, with three of those being caucuses. How well is he expected to do on that day? I think was hoping to be more dominant than he was, but it was no disaster. It can’t qualify as a momentum-stopper, with Trump winning most of the states and Cruz/Rubio remaining as tangled as ever.


    March 1, 2016 at 11:28 pm

  2. Minn caucus might have been semi rigged, as in people couldn’t figure out where to caucus and Trump’s lack of organization in the state did him in. He did so poorly there and Rubio did so well I think that we can safely write off MN as a fluke. Texas was impossible thanks to Cruz being the homeboy and the state being filled with stupid TruCon and Stupid Christians.

    OK is the bad loss. Trump was supposed to win it by 5 and he ended up losing it by about that much.

    Vermont is establishment city where Kasich’s yankee style cuckservatism plays very well so that was always going to be a tough state, hopefully Trump pulls it out.

    Denying Rubio a win in VA was big.

    2 weeks and another debate before FLA and OH. Trump needs to win both to win the nomination and while FL is no problem, OH could be a tall order. A lot of Rubio and even Cruz people will jump ship to Kasich to put him ahead of Trump.

    Otis the Sweaty

    March 1, 2016 at 11:30 pm

    • Kasich winning his home state doesn’t move the anti-Trumpers converge on a single candidate.

      • There is no need to converge on a single cadidate.
        The candidate that get nominated is the one that got the most votes by delegates in the convention.

        The Cruz, Kasic and Rubio delegates can all pull togetehr to vote for a single candidate, which can even be mit rommeny.


        March 2, 2016 at 6:43 am

    • Trump should hammer the trade issue like a gong. Trade trade trade trade trade. 24/7. Trans-Pacific Partnership. NAFTA. Giant sucking sound.

      The immigration issue sets alt-right hearts a-flutter, but newsflash: America isn’t made up of Heartistes & Co, thank god. America is still made up of practical people with families and children, and Trump should be saying this to them?

      He has to openly run against the GOPe, which is part of a group of DC globalists who care more about their cushy lives than the health of this country. GOPe’s paychecks and swag are paid for by China. Trump has got to make the dots between the Chinese crap that Home Depot sells, and the day laborers you can buy for cheap milling around in front of the Home Depot. I’m not sure he has the ability to do that. Coulter can, but she is monomaniacally fixated on the immigration issue.


      March 2, 2016 at 9:19 am

      • Trump should listen to you. People fully know that Trump is the guy who’ll build the wall and control immigration and they’ve made up their minds where they stand on that. Trade and wages is the underused issue of this campaign, and Trump is the man best positioned to saddle and ride it. Pocketbook!


        March 2, 2016 at 12:13 pm

  3. A few days back when you wrote that MN hadn’t been polled since January I got this knot in my stomach. The way this panned out, with Trump in third and Cruz in second, hasn’t been replicated in any other state. Again, when you stop actively polling a place that last had Rubio on top, it’s not hard to imagine that it was specifically singled out as a state in which it would be relatively safe to commit fraud. I expect Scott Adams to mention this tomorrow.

    Think about it. It’s a small enough state that Trump can dismiss it and nobody is going to think twice about, a state that won’t raise flags, but a win for Rubio means now he can say he’s won a state as he goes into Florida. Then expect him to go up in the polls there because of his MN “surge.” All they’re doing is building a plausible story which they can sell to us.

    I still believe your prediction was correct, it just didn’t take into account the possibility of fraud.

    E. Green

    March 1, 2016 at 11:34 pm

    • The Minnesota Caucus voted for Santorum in 2012 and Romney in 2008. So they always pick losers. It should be noted that the first caucus wasn’t even the binding ones those years so Ron Paul actually won in 2012 when the real vote occurred at the State Convention and McCain won in 2008. I don’t know if the rules changed this year where this vote actually means something delegate wise or not. That seems to be a change they were trying to push at the national level so maybe so.


      March 1, 2016 at 11:55 pm

    • Shrug. It’s the Jesse Ventura/Al Franken state. If Trump was losing they’d have voted for him just to be freaky.


      March 2, 2016 at 1:38 am

  4. I don’t think his speech was all that ‘presidential.’


    March 1, 2016 at 11:34 pm

  5. the main worry wrt trump’s nomination is not an intervention by the party elite or some conservative mutiny but rather assassination. i hope the secret service are doing their effing job. let’s make america great again!


    March 1, 2016 at 11:36 pm

    • This keeps me up at night. From what I understand he has redundancy built into his personal security apparatus, so that it’s not only USSS protecting him.

      E. Green

      March 1, 2016 at 11:48 pm

    • Frankly “assassination” is at this point a pretty minor threat given technological advances in law enforcement and security capabilities. I’d be more worried about Trump’s cardiovascular system…


      March 2, 2016 at 2:03 am

  6. Trump’s speech/press conference thing was good. But Christie standing behind him looked like an idiot. He looks like a fat slob. Christie only looks good when he’s screaming and yelling at people. Otherwise he looks like a fat jackass and a doorman or valet or something. Maybe he should be kept off camera on the side or something, or get more people standing behind Trump with him.


    March 1, 2016 at 11:51 pm

  7. is oklahoma to texas what new zealand is to australia?

    james n.s.w

    March 2, 2016 at 12:45 am

  8. I remember I saw this on YouTube a few years ago:


    March 2, 2016 at 1:17 am

  9. Trump needs to crack 50% somewhere, anywhere.

    Martin F.

    March 2, 2016 at 1:52 am

  10. Hmm, Cruz won Alaska too. Pretty good results for him, all things considered.


    March 2, 2016 at 3:49 am

  11. It’s a total freak out with the Wall Street Journal crowd. The “Best of the Web” Crowd on Facebook are already planning their new political party name. They’re not even trying to spin the few non Trumpian victories. I expect they’ll be joining Raven and Al Sharpton in Canada.

    Mike Street Station

    March 2, 2016 at 6:26 am

  12. bunch of thumpers here in Oklahoma. Trump vetted himself with Okies way back when he said “pussy” in reference to Cruz a while back. Profanity will get you ostracized quicker than a war in this backward ass state. Don’t know if it had any impact or not, but a gal at the tag agency in town informed me that democrats in the state are allowing independents to vote in their primaries this year. Republicans didn’t.

    K.l. Asher

    March 2, 2016 at 7:05 am

    • Trump really needs to clean up his act. There is a bubble of unstable internet fanatics who is very turned on by this adolescent behavior but in the real world, it doesn’t fly. He doesn’t have to turn into a stuffy bore, he simply not say shit, fuck, or pussy. Is that SO hard? Truman used to say “bull” a lot. Everyone got the point.


      March 2, 2016 at 9:25 am

      • The craziness of some of Trump’s internet supporters is really off the chain. Like, the RABID anti-semites and racists and whatnot. Like, the people tweeting Jews pictures of ovens and saying “you’re next” etc. Daily Beast wrote a thing about the phenom:

        a) it’s a legit phenomenon the press will be completely justified in continuing to report on, which will make voting for Trump seem scary, or at least something deeply gross and embarrassing, given who else is doing it (is that reverse social proof?)

        b) it will mobilize the internet weirdos of the other site, the far-left SWJ types, to become more politically active than usual given the high-stakes. Since they spend so much time online, they will not think of Trump’s internet people are merely a faction of his base, they will think it IS the base. And they will move heaven and earth to try and crush them.

        Martin F.

        March 2, 2016 at 10:25 am

      • “Like, the RABID anti-semites and racists and whatnot. Like, the people tweeting Jews pictures of ovens and saying “you’re next” etc. ”

        I call attention to that here & ppl tell me I’m being “oversensitive.” Or else they deny it. They truly have zero idea of what they look like.

        Trump needs to talk trade trade trade China China China 24/7 and clean up the pottymouth.


        March 2, 2016 at 11:28 am

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