Super Tuesday analysis
I predicted that Trump would win every state except Texas, and my prediction was wrong.
Cruz also won Oklahoma. And it looks like Rubio is going to win Minnesota. Trump looks like he’s going to win Vermont, but Kasich is very close and it has not been called yet.
Trump is still heavily in the lead. Marco “the Boy Wonder” Rubio, besides his big win Minnesota, had a bad night coming in third in most states.
As I did predict, the media spin is that Trump was “dominant.”
Trump sounded very presidential in his victory speech and impromptu press conference.
Trump is at about 49% in Massachusetts (but with not quite all precincts counted) demonstrating that Trump’s “ceiling” is a lot higher than people thought it was.
I think that with the social proof from winning the lion’s share of states and delegates tonight, the spin from the MSM that Trump is unstoppable, the fact that Cruz who is clearly in second place is not competitive outside of the Bible Belt, Trump should be able to win the majority of delegates by March 15th.
It’s clear that Rubio and Cruz will both refuse to drop out, so there is little chance that the voters will rally around a single anti-Trump candidate.
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About Rubio’s close second place in Virginia.
The DC suburbs went heavily for Rubio. That’s where the GOPe actually lives. We already knew that the GOPe was heavily in favor of Rubio.
The rest of Virginia is a Bible Belt state, and the Bible Belters like Rubio because he says that women who were raped shouldn’t be allowed to abort the demon-spawn of their rapist.
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About Cruz’ win in Oklahoma.
It borders Texas.
Cruz always considered Oklahoma, Arkansas and Texas his three strongest states. Cruz only won two of them.
Oklahoma had a closed primary, only registered Republicans could vote. That hurts Trump because he gets a lot of support from Independents.
Oklahoma doesn’t have much predictive power for the rest of the country.
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About Rubio’s win in Minnesota. I’m stumped. Some of my commenters had a better handle on this. I congratulate them.
But Minnesota is a caucus state, and I think one takeaway is that caucus states are difficult for Trump, Nevada notwithstanding. Luckily for Trump, the vast majority of delegates are given out in primary states.