Lion of the Blogosphere

Comprehensive GOP analysis

This is the best analysis you will find anywhere. None of the Wednesday-morning quarterbacking in the mainstream media is as insightful as what I have to say.

For starters, Trump’s strength closely correlated with the map in this New York Times article from December which has a Google heat-map of “where racially charged internet searches are most common.” Yes, this map was intended to impugn Trump and make him look like a “racist.” I prefer to view this map as an indication of both proleness, and as places where whites live in proximity to minorities and can observe the problems they cause first-hand, and would therefore be more strongly opposed to immigration (which is almost entirely non-white) and to political correctness.

Even though the Deep South is not the place where Trump would naturally have the most support, the fact that the Deep South is very prole and there are lots of black people there is what gives Trump his surprising strength there.

If you are looking for a nice place to live, probably the nicest places are those which score low on that chart and where Trump’s support would be weakest. No wonder why all of the young white people want to move to Oregon.

Trump will also be extra strong in Rust Belt states and in the New York/New Jersey area.

Unfortunately, for those in the GOPe hoping that voters would coalesce around an anti-Trump candidate, the three alternatives to Trump are all regional candidates who appeal only to a specific subgroup of Republicans.

That’s right, I said there are three alternatives. Kasich demonstrated last night that he’s still a force to be reckoned with. He almost won in Vermont and he also edged out Rubio for second place in Massachusetts. Kasich does well in non-religious blue states. I predict, therefore, that he will do well in other New England states, throughout the Rust Belt, in New York, and also along the west cast in California, Oregon and Washington. Doesn’t mean he’s going to win any of those states (except, perhaps, for Ohio and Oregon), but he’s going to embarrass the heck out of Rubio and the GOPe people who thought that Rubio was the Boy Wonder.

Kasich is going to embarrass Rubio in the Maine caucus on Saturday, coming in a strong second behind Trump, well ahead of Rubio.

Rubio’s support is among evangelicals who are turned off by Cruz’s hard TrueCon image and want a softer but still-God-fearing Christian man. Rubio proved his Christian credibility by stating that he would like to prohibit women who were raped from aborting the demon-spawn of their rapist. If Rubio ever actually won the nomination, the liberals would never stop talking about that and it would doom his chance. The GOPe is pretty stupid not to realize that.

Rubio also has support among Mormons and among the GOPe who live in Washington DC and its suburbs. Rubio will definitely win Utah and DC, and possibly win some of those nice northern states near Minnesota where the white people are heavily into Christianity but not so heavily into the TrueCon stuff like being tough on immigrants and lowering taxes for the top 1% Many of those Christian types actually want more immigration because they think that more religious Hispanics moving here will eventually tip the balance into the country being pro-life.

On the other hand, Rubio is polling pretty poorly in his home state of Florida, which is a combination of the Deep South and New York/New Jersey.

Cruz’s support comes from evangelicals who are also TrueCons. But this is mitigated by the fact that a lot of those types, such as those who live in the Deep South, are attracted to Trump for other reasons (proleness and proximity to minorities).

Alaska was big win for Cruz, not because it has a lot of delegates, but because demonstrates Cruz’s ability to win a state in an entirely different region of the country.

Cruz will win the Kansas caucus on Saturday, but lose to Trump in the Deep South states of Kentucky and Louisiana.

* * *

Coming elections:

Saturday March 5

Kansas caucus: Cruz wins

Kentucky caucus: Trump wins. Kentucky votes like a Deep South state (but as commenters corrected me, is not a Deep South state).

Louisiana: Trump wins, it’s a Deep South state

Maine Caucus: Trump should win, but Kasich will come in a strong second.

Sunday, March 6

Puerto Rico primary: Rubio wins

Tuesday, March 8

Hawaii Republican Caucus: Kasich does surprisingly well

Idaho Republican Primary: Cruz has a good chance to win. Rubio will do well with Mormon voters. Weakest state for Trump.

Michigan: First Rust Belt state to vote. Huge win for Trump. The delegate rules will disproportionately award delegates to Trump. Kasich comes in second. Perhaps the only other guy besides Trump who wins delegates. Very embarrassing for Rubio.

Mississippi: Trump wins because it’s a Deep South state

* * *

Extending this further:

March 12

District of Columbia “Convention”: Rubio wins a massive victory here.

March 15

Florida: Trump wins. Florida is a combination of a Deep South state and New York. Rubio loses in his home state.

Illinois: Trump has a huge win, this is a Rust Belt state. Kasich beats Rubio for second place.

Missouri: Too close to call. This is in Cruz territory. Rubio comes in third.

Northern Mariana Islands caucus: Kasich will do surprisingly well, hard to predict who wins this.

North Carolina: Trump wins, this is a Confederacy state, votes like Virginia but without the pro-Rubio DC suburbs.

Ohio: Kasich wins. Although the last poll shows that Trump has a lead over Kasich, Kasich’s continuing strength, and the assumption that Kasich will have a huge ground game advantage in his home state, causes me to predict that Kasich wins.

At this point Rubio is forced to drop out and Kasich becomes the GOPe favorite.

If you were following the logic of the predictions, not only did Rubio lose his home state, he came in third in too many states. At this point, Kasich is obviously the stronger candidate to consolidate the not-Trump-not-Cruz vote and the best chance to defeat Trump in California/Oregon/Washington.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

March 2, 2016 at 11:16 am

Posted in Politics

28 Responses

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  1. It’s odd that that the search map shows such a high concentration for WV and low for the Missouri Ozarks, which are both Greater Appalachia prole and demographically similar.

    Fiddlesticks

    March 2, 2016 at 11:36 am

  2. “Kasich demonstrated last night that he’s still a force to be reckoned with. He almost won in Vermont and he also edged out Rubio for second place in Massachusetts. Kasich does well in non-religious blue states. I predict, therefore, that he will do well in other New England states, throughout the Rust Belt, in New York, and also along the west cast in California, Oregon and Washington.”

    So Kasich does well in every state that the GOP has no chance of winning? That sounds like the perfect GOPe candidate!

    Mike Street Station

    March 2, 2016 at 11:36 am

  3. The best explanation for what happened in Minnesota is that Minnesotans are dumb. They are naive.

    Have you seen the footage of the (Democrat) Somali caucus in Minneapolis?
    http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2016/03/minnesota-dfl-caucus-candidates-speak-only-in-somali/

    Look at those pictures, and consider that Trump had his worst performance in the whole state among the Republicans in Minneapolis. He got 15.6 percent there. He got only 21 percent in the state. Bizarre.

    SQ

    March 2, 2016 at 11:41 am

  4. Andrew E.

    March 2, 2016 at 11:42 am

    • How did they become citizens if they don’t speak English?

      Yakov

      March 2, 2016 at 12:53 pm

  5. Kentucky caucus: Trump wins, it’s a Deep South state

    Well, no it isn’t but I guess he will win it. You are showing your NYC area bias if you think Kentucky is the Deep South. Hell, it’s barely The South.

    It’s known as a boarder state and the people definitely view themselves as not Deep South.

    I guess it’s vote pattern might resemble the south at times. But remember Rand Paul is their Senator.

    Rifleman

    March 2, 2016 at 11:44 am

  6. Regarding Kansas, their very popular Secretary of State Kris Kobach, who is very pro-life and a national leader on illegal immigration, endorsed Trump strongly the other day. That was very good (some think he might be what Trump needs as a VP).

    Andrew E.

    March 2, 2016 at 11:51 am

    • Kobach VP? No way. Picking anyone lower-ranking than a Gov/Sen/Committee-chair level Congressman/1st-tier cabinet secretary completely undercuts your social proof.

      Fiddlesticks

      March 2, 2016 at 12:31 pm

  7. Kentucky is not a Deep South state. It wasn’t even part of the Confederacy.

    Ripple Earthdevil

    March 2, 2016 at 12:06 pm

    • Nevertheless, it votes like a Deep South state. If I’m wrong, then Cruz could win there. Or maybe Kentucky is more like West Virginia which is strong for Trump.

      • You are right, LOTB. Whether or not Kentucky fits the definition of “deep South”, it fits your definition of “prole white state in proximity to minorities”. It will go for Trump, much like Tennessee did.

        That’s a good insight, BTW. All-white states like Idaho and Oregon simply don’t get the appeal of Trump because they don’t face the social problems of dealing with minorities. To them, minorities are little angels who are beaten down by racist white hicks. In some ways, I hope Obama’s goal of spreading out the Section 8 housing to all the sheltered white neighborhoods is realized. That’ll probably spur a national understanding of race realism more so than anything else.

        Great Again

        March 2, 2016 at 12:36 pm

    • Correct. It’s a fully Greater Appalachian state throughout. Indeed, it’s probably the only state entirely within Greater Appalachia.

      JayMan

      March 2, 2016 at 12:21 pm

  8. “I prefer to view this map as an indication of both proleness, and as places where whites live in proximity to minorities and can observe the problems they cause first-hand, and would therefore be more strongly opposed to immigration (which is almost entirely non-white) and to political correctness”

    I’m not so sure about that. Trump is strong in Greater Appalachia, which is pretty White throughout.

    The overall pattern appears to be that Trump’s strength lies in Greater Appalachia, the Deep South, and the Tidewater – the traditional “red” nations:

    American Nations Series

    He seems to be strong with Catholic Irish as well, judging from the pattern. Some of that (but not all of it) stems from proximity to non-Whites. But sure, some of that could be a Rust Belt effect, but the pattern doesn’t quite fit.

    He seems to be popular with the Finns (Yoopers) for some reason.

    JayMan

    March 2, 2016 at 12:17 pm

  9. Do Trump and Kasich already have a secret deal in place? Kasich stays in and bedevils Rubio allowing Trump to cruise to victory and then Kasich receives the VP nomination?

    Greg Pandatshang

    March 2, 2016 at 12:24 pm

    • Rubio’s surrogates are spreading that rumor around because Rubio is actually the one who is desperate to cut a deal with Kasich.

      Dan McLaughlin, one of Marcomentum’s main pundits, admitted that they need someone (coff coff Kasich coff coff) to drop out before the Ohio primary on 3/15 or Rubio is toast. Thus the awkward efforts to get Kasich’s voters to turn against him.

      Team Rubio keeps acting like he is Everybody’s Second Choice, but that beta orbiter strategy is not working too well, as he has even lost the runner-up mojo to Cruz.

      Fiddlesticks

      March 2, 2016 at 1:10 pm

      • Well, it could still be true even if purporting it is good for Rubio’s campaign. I agree that Rubio’s strategy isn’t working very well, but it would be working better if Kasich would drop out. I guess Kasich’s people have done the same math that Lion has and figure he will become the leading non-Trump/Cruz candidate after Rubio loses Florida, which puts Kasich in line to buy a lottery ticket for a small chance of becoming president.

        Greg Pandatshang

        March 2, 2016 at 1:57 pm

  10. […] such an amazing prediction, this deserves its own post. The logic behind it is in my previous post. After Kasich wins Ohio and Rubio loses in Florida, Rubio will drop […]

  11. And none of this shakes your faith in his victory in the general election?

    Lloyd Llewellyn

    March 2, 2016 at 12:44 pm

  12. The Trump win in Virginia was huge even if it was tight. Rubio was betting big that the heavily GOPe DC suburbs would be enough for him squeak out a win. I’ve even heard that busloads of ‘Dem voters’ were brought in to bloc vote for Rubio. Plus the area is heavily Hispanic and filled with clueless liberals who came out in numbers to vote anybody-but-Trump (which were mostly Rubio votes). I’m from the area originally and most of my friends down there are clueless liberals (and non-white, Indian) and to them Trump is Hitler. I checked my FB feed yesterday and there were several posts about getting out to vote not-Trump.

    The country/rural folk and the coastal military patriots really came through for us yesterday. Kudos to them.

    Andrew E.

    March 2, 2016 at 12:51 pm

    • Great observation. GOPe kept claiming libs weren’t worried about Trump winning the general. But they clearly are, otherwise when they crossed party lines they would’ve cast troll votes for him, not Rubio.

      Fiddlesticks

      March 2, 2016 at 1:25 pm

    • The GOP turnout has been surging this year in every state, but Virginia was WAY out of line. Compared to 2008, the typical state has been goosed with 20-60% more voters. Virginia had 110%. It’s pretty obvious that Democrats were crossing over en masse, probably in the DC area especially.

      Richard

      March 2, 2016 at 1:42 pm

    • It’s possible that the Rubio camp was busing in black voters. Comparing Virginia exit polls from 2012 and 2016, we see the black proportion of voters increasing from 2% to 9%. It could always be exit poll error though.

      http://www.cnn.com/election/primaries/polls/va/Rep
      http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/primaries/epolls/va/

      Entity

      March 2, 2016 at 3:28 pm

  13. this analysis is worthless without the delegate math. Are we getting to 1237 or not?

    Otis the Sweaty

    March 2, 2016 at 1:15 pm

  14. > This is the best analysis you will find anywhere.

    Where? You forgot the link!

    Seriously though, I think you underestimate Ted Cruz’s potential to appeal to a broader base, especially in the West and almost everywhere in a head-to-head contest against Trump. He’s really more of a Tea Party economic conservative / libertarian making his pitch to cultural conservatives to rebuild Reagan’s leave-us-alone coalition. What gives him a reputation for being extreme is that he actually stands of up for his position and doesn’t mind turning over apple carts in D.C.

    His biggest problem is that profane, obnoxious Trump better personifies the apple cart flipper that most people imagine, despite his long track record of peddling apples and being an unpredictable gadfly.

    But for the GOPe Cruz IS predictable and therefore a bigger threat to them than Trump. That’s why the pundits (including LotBS) would rather just ignore him.

    If these people were really serious about their #NEVERTRUMP bs, they would rally around Cruz and work to get Rubio and Kasich to drop out so that Cruz could get all of the anti-Trump vote plus some of the anti-establishment vote. The problem is that they want it all and haven’t resigned themselves to not getting their damned amnesty.

    mvetsel

    March 2, 2016 at 2:31 pm

  15. Another issue is open vs closed primaries. Trump has done very will in open primaries where registered Democrats or independents can vote in the Republican primary. Trump has also done well in semi-open primaries where independents can vote in the Republican primary. Trump has under-performed polls in states with closed primaries. Oklahoma was a closed primary and Trump under-performed vs his polls.

    The winner take all primary in Florida is a closed primary. Trump is way ahead in the polls, but he might under-perform vs those poll numbers. The other big winner take all primary is Ohio. It is semi-open, independents can vote in the Republican primary which should benefit Trump.

    mikeca

    March 2, 2016 at 3:13 pm

  16. Trump’s victory in Massachusetts, where he attracted white ethnic proles, is a good sign for how he’ll perform in the Rust Belt.

    The Undiscovered Jew

    March 2, 2016 at 5:31 pm

  17. “If you are looking for a nice place to live, probably the nicest places are those which score low on that chart and where Trump’s support would be weakest. No wonder why all of the young white people want to move to Oregon.”

    Your correspondent checking in from Asheville, NC: just as white, with identical politics and terrain, coffee house and foodie cultures, but somewhat (at least for now) lower housing costs. However, unlike PDX, this is a very blue island in a very red western NC region.

    Expect Bernie to win Buncombe County easily on 3/15. Hillary not doing anything here as she expects to overcome losses in whitelib towns like Asheville, Chapel Hill, Durham, and Raleigh high-tech suburbs with overwhelming support in black Charlotte, Greensboro, Winston-Salem, etc.

    Absolutely no signs of GOP life here, but that is probably to be expected. Closed primary, so that changes the calculus, but I still think Trump takes it. If he does, that removes the argument that “outsiders” are making the GOP’s decision for it.

    sestamibi

    March 2, 2016 at 5:41 pm

  18. “This is the best analysis you will find anywhere. None of the Wednesday-morning quarterbacking in the mainstream media is as insightful as what I have to say.”

    lion, i like your confidence. #veryalpha

    rivelino

    March 2, 2016 at 6:52 pm


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