Comprehensive GOP analysis
This is the best analysis you will find anywhere. None of the Wednesday-morning quarterbacking in the mainstream media is as insightful as what I have to say.
For starters, Trump’s strength closely correlated with the map in this New York Times article from December which has a Google heat-map of “where racially charged internet searches are most common.” Yes, this map was intended to impugn Trump and make him look like a “racist.” I prefer to view this map as an indication of both proleness, and as places where whites live in proximity to minorities and can observe the problems they cause first-hand, and would therefore be more strongly opposed to immigration (which is almost entirely non-white) and to political correctness.
Even though the Deep South is not the place where Trump would naturally have the most support, the fact that the Deep South is very prole and there are lots of black people there is what gives Trump his surprising strength there.
If you are looking for a nice place to live, probably the nicest places are those which score low on that chart and where Trump’s support would be weakest. No wonder why all of the young white people want to move to Oregon.
Trump will also be extra strong in Rust Belt states and in the New York/New Jersey area.
Unfortunately, for those in the GOPe hoping that voters would coalesce around an anti-Trump candidate, the three alternatives to Trump are all regional candidates who appeal only to a specific subgroup of Republicans.
That’s right, I said there are three alternatives. Kasich demonstrated last night that he’s still a force to be reckoned with. He almost won in Vermont and he also edged out Rubio for second place in Massachusetts. Kasich does well in non-religious blue states. I predict, therefore, that he will do well in other New England states, throughout the Rust Belt, in New York, and also along the west cast in California, Oregon and Washington. Doesn’t mean he’s going to win any of those states (except, perhaps, for Ohio and Oregon), but he’s going to embarrass the heck out of Rubio and the GOPe people who thought that Rubio was the Boy Wonder.
Kasich is going to embarrass Rubio in the Maine caucus on Saturday, coming in a strong second behind Trump, well ahead of Rubio.
Rubio’s support is among evangelicals who are turned off by Cruz’s hard TrueCon image and want a softer but still-God-fearing Christian man. Rubio proved his Christian credibility by stating that he would like to prohibit women who were raped from aborting the demon-spawn of their rapist. If Rubio ever actually won the nomination, the liberals would never stop talking about that and it would doom his chance. The GOPe is pretty stupid not to realize that.
Rubio also has support among Mormons and among the GOPe who live in Washington DC and its suburbs. Rubio will definitely win Utah and DC, and possibly win some of those nice northern states near Minnesota where the white people are heavily into Christianity but not so heavily into the TrueCon stuff like being tough on immigrants and lowering taxes for the top 1% Many of those Christian types actually want more immigration because they think that more religious Hispanics moving here will eventually tip the balance into the country being pro-life.
On the other hand, Rubio is polling pretty poorly in his home state of Florida, which is a combination of the Deep South and New York/New Jersey.
Cruz’s support comes from evangelicals who are also TrueCons. But this is mitigated by the fact that a lot of those types, such as those who live in the Deep South, are attracted to Trump for other reasons (proleness and proximity to minorities).
Alaska was big win for Cruz, not because it has a lot of delegates, but because demonstrates Cruz’s ability to win a state in an entirely different region of the country.
Cruz will win the Kansas caucus on Saturday, but lose to Trump in the Deep South states of Kentucky and Louisiana.
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Saturday March 5
Kansas caucus: Cruz wins
Kentucky caucus: Trump wins. Kentucky votes like a Deep South state (but as commenters corrected me, is not a Deep South state).
Louisiana: Trump wins, it’s a Deep South state
Maine Caucus: Trump should win, but Kasich will come in a strong second.
Sunday, March 6
Puerto Rico primary: Rubio wins
Tuesday, March 8
Hawaii Republican Caucus: Kasich does surprisingly well
Idaho Republican Primary: Cruz has a good chance to win. Rubio will do well with Mormon voters. Weakest state for Trump.
Michigan: First Rust Belt state to vote. Huge win for Trump. The delegate rules will disproportionately award delegates to Trump. Kasich comes in second. Perhaps the only other guy besides Trump who wins delegates. Very embarrassing for Rubio.
Mississippi: Trump wins because it’s a Deep South state
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Extending this further:
District of Columbia “Convention”: Rubio wins a massive victory here.
Florida: Trump wins. Florida is a combination of a Deep South state and New York. Rubio loses in his home state.
Illinois: Trump has a huge win, this is a Rust Belt state. Kasich beats Rubio for second place.
Missouri: Too close to call. This is in Cruz territory. Rubio comes in third.
Northern Mariana Islands caucus: Kasich will do surprisingly well, hard to predict who wins this.
North Carolina: Trump wins, this is a Confederacy state, votes like Virginia but without the pro-Rubio DC suburbs.
Ohio: Kasich wins. Although the last poll shows that Trump has a lead over Kasich, Kasich’s continuing strength, and the assumption that Kasich will have a huge ground game advantage in his home state, causes me to predict that Kasich wins.
At this point Rubio is forced to drop out and Kasich becomes the GOPe favorite.
If you were following the logic of the predictions, not only did Rubio lose his home state, he came in third in too many states. At this point, Kasich is obviously the stronger candidate to consolidate the not-Trump-not-Cruz vote and the best chance to defeat Trump in California/Oregon/Washington.