Lion of the Blogosphere

Prediction: Rubio will drop out and Kasich becomes GOPe favorite

It’s such an amazing prediction, this deserves its own post. The logic behind it is in my previous post. After Kasich wins Ohio and Rubio loses in Florida, Rubio will drop out.

Kasich could eventually wind up as Trump’s VP to unify the party. Otherwise, Christie is Trump’s choice for VP.

* * *

Additional elections after March 15 (assumes Rubio has dropped out)

March 19

Virgin Islands caucus: Kasich could win this now that Rubio has dropped out.

Arizona primary: Big Trump win. Trump was endorsed by Sheriff Joe and Jan Brewer. Illegal immigration is a big issue here.

Utah primary: Kasich wins. Romney will endorse Kasich, and Kasich will win the Mormon vote.

April 5

Wisconsin primary: Kasich wins.

April 9

Wyoming primary: Cruz wins

April 19

New York: Huge win for Trump

April 26

Connecticut primary: Trump

Delaware primary: Trump

Maryland primary: Trump (Kasich’s strength in DC suburbs not strong enough to beat Trump)

Pennsylvania primary: Huge win for Trump, Rust Belt state.

Rhode Island primary: Too close to call between Kasich and Trump.

May 3

Indiana: Too close to call between Cruz and Trump

May 7

Guam: not sure what this is, but Kasich would win if there was something going on here.

May 10

Nebraska primary: Cruz

West Virginia: Trump

May 17

Oregon: Kasich wins.

May 24

Washington primary: Trump narrowly defeats Kasich

June 7

California: Trump

Montana: Cruz

New Jersey: Huge win for Trump

New Mexico: Trump

North Dakota: Kasich

South Dakota: Too close to call between Cruz, Kasich and Trump

* * *

Does Trump have a majority of delegates after all that?

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

March 2, 2016 at 12:34 pm

Posted in Politics

44 Responses

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  1. Did you see that one of the larger bookmakers out there has already paid out on Trump winning the nomination?

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-03-02/bookmaker-pays-out-early-on-trump-winning-republican-nomination

    More interesting is that the bookie is placing 65% odds that Hillary wins the Whitehouse vs. Trump at 33%. I think that it’ll be a helluva lot closer than that and will likely bet now assuming I can make the arbitrage play once the race tightens come fall.

    DdR

    March 2, 2016 at 1:07 pm

    • You would bet on Trump now and Hillary later. It’s not technically arbitrage though because arbitrage has to exploit simultaneous price discrepancies.

      Lloyd Llewellyn

      March 2, 2016 at 1:27 pm

      • I would take the bet and try to flip it to somebody else once the race tightens and Trump’s odds improve. I didn’t mean arbitrage, rather incorrect pricing. Thanks for catching that.

        I don’t know if I can flip a bet. I’ll be researching this over the next few days. Otherwise I would take the bet and ride it to the end. He has a better than 33% chance of winning. He’s only gaining strength and momentum, similar to Obama in 2008, and I don’t think he can be stopped.

        Exciting times.

        DdR

        March 2, 2016 at 1:49 pm

  2. Okay, first of all, there is 0 chance that Christie will be Trump’s veep. Forget it. Trump’s veep will probably be Kasich but if not him it will be somebody like Ivanka, Scott Brown, Brian Sandoval or Susana Martinez.

    2nd of all, I don’t see Rubio dropping out after FLA because it simply is not in his self interest. His political career is over if he doesn’t win the nomination. He has to keep fighting until the convention and hope that the party crowns him. It’s a long shot, but it’s also his only shot.

    Otis the Sweaty

    March 2, 2016 at 1:08 pm

    • Rubio is a pawn of the GOPe and big money donors. They will all tell him to drop out. He will obey.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      March 2, 2016 at 1:12 pm

      • This is a bold but sane prediction, Lion. I like the cut of your jib.

        AnonymousCoward

        March 2, 2016 at 1:23 pm

    • Susanna Martinez is a prole.

      B.T.D.T.

      March 2, 2016 at 2:00 pm

  3. Lion, that’s an astounding prediction that resonates at the gut level, and Kasich’s propensity to remain civil with Trump increases the chances of this happening. It’s so logical now once verbalized. And it makes sense to Trump’s value proposition to take a governor, and even more when he’s the governor of Ohio. Not his first choice, but you’re right, one the GOP might be able to sell him on.

    I’m frightened for tomorrow’s debate. I’ve been on board since July, and I have a feeling about what they’re going to do to him tomorrow on that stage. It will be an unprecedented collusion among the players. I think I’m just going to follow your tweets while I go stare down evil somewhere else.

    E. Green

    March 2, 2016 at 1:10 pm

  4. Trump has promised that his VP will be from the political world, AND pro-borders. The pro=borders part rules out Kasich.

    Steven J.

    March 2, 2016 at 1:10 pm

    • Trump makes deals. He wrote the book on making deals. He will make a deal on Kasich if it helps him.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      March 2, 2016 at 1:14 pm

    • Exactly, how did everyone else here miss this? The first thing Kasich would do is harangue Trump about how “mean” it would be to limit immigration, Muslim or Spanish-speaking. As someone else said the other day, Kasich is just a less dweeby Jeb. And the whole Trump phenomenon by definition makes Kasich’s connection to Ohio immaterial. Trump would be cutting his own throat by picking Kasich. It might make some voters in winnable states stay home, just as they did with Romney.

      SAT Coach

      March 2, 2016 at 2:15 pm

      • Wouldn’t Trump point out how much heroin is brought in from Mexico, and how much harm this has done to Ohio?

        Half Canadian

        March 2, 2016 at 7:17 pm

  5. I hate to disagree Lion, but I believe it is Rubio who is likely promising the moon, stars and VP slot to Kasich to stand aside in Ohio and give him a chance. Follow the money. Rubio’s campaign is far more expensive and helping far more pollsters and consultants make their mortgage payments.

    Team Rubio is whispering, in bad faith, of a secret Trump-Kasich deal to distract from THEIR shady overtures and to sow mistrust among Kasich voters.

    Fiddlesticks

    March 2, 2016 at 1:18 pm

    • Since Rubio isn’t going to win the presidency he has nothing to offer.

      Richard

      March 2, 2016 at 1:36 pm

  6. Christie doesn’t want to be Vice President, which is a nothing job. He wants to be Attorney General, about which he has dreamed all his life. I’d bet good money that’s the deal he was offered.

    Handle

    March 2, 2016 at 1:32 pm

    • Christie would be a good pick as AG.

      jjbees

      March 2, 2016 at 2:16 pm

  7. Also, I think it’s fair to say that the GOPe establishment have a regular love/hate cycle which they go through with each of their shiny anti-Trumps.

    “King Xerxes is displeased with his generals… …he disciplines them”

    King GOPe and Queen Media put forth Jeb. He proves weak. This weakness displeases the masters. The new savior is angrily rejected, in favor of a new, fresh toy, who is now anti-Trump of the month.

    King GOPe and Queen Media put forth Carly. She proves weak. This weakness displeases the masters. The new savior is angrily rejected, in favor of a new, fresh toy, who is now anti-Trump of the month.

    King GOPe and Queen Media put forth Carson. He proves weak. This weakness displeases the masters. The new savior is angrily rejected, in favor of a new, fresh toy, who is now anti-Trump of the month.

    Etc, etc.. interestingly, each time, the angry rejection is more abrupt and harsh. Rubio might find the media and his backers turn on him very suddenly.

    AnonymousCoward

    March 2, 2016 at 1:36 pm

    • AnonymousCoward

      March 2, 2016 at 1:46 pm

  8. I agree with the prediction that Kasich will be the GOPe favorite, but not that he will be Trump’s VP. In fact the two predictions cancel one another out.

    gothamette

    March 2, 2016 at 1:37 pm

  9. Trump undoubtedly offered Christie the Attorney General spot. He must now court Kasich for VP and offer Ted Cruz a Supreme Court nod if he goes bye bye. Then he should offer Marco the job of head caddy at The Mar-a-Lago Club.

    B.T.D.T.

    March 2, 2016 at 2:07 pm

  10. “Arizona primary: Big Trump win. Trump was endorsed by Sheriff Joe and Jan Brewer. Illegal immigration is a big issue here.”

    Relevant. What happened in AZ after SB1070 became law?:
    “As the Arizona economy recovered, a worker shortage began surfacing in industries relying on immigrants, documented or not. Wages rose about 15% for Arizona farmworkers and about 10% for construction between 2010 and 2014, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Some employers say their need for workers has increased since then, leading them to boost wages more rapidly and crimping their ability to expand.”
    http://www.wsj.com/articles/the-thorny-economics-of-illegal-immigration-1454984443

    dsgntd_plyr

    March 2, 2016 at 2:12 pm

    • Wages went up? Boo fucking hoo. The entire staff of the WSJ should be shipped offbtoba labor camp in the PRC.

      gothamette

      March 2, 2016 at 3:11 pm

      • Heaven forbid the people who do the actual work get paid more.

        fakeemail

        March 2, 2016 at 6:58 pm

  11. Trump should pick someone like Scott Brown as his VP.

    -Handsome
    -Well liked by liberals considering he won in massachusetts, is a “unifier”

    My own personal pet theory is that Trump should pick Bernie Sanders as his VP. He would be truly unstoppable and would finally unite the white vote. Bernie Sanders has said in the past that he knows what’s up on immigration and would fall in line with Trump, and white millenials love Bernie for his social welfare for whites stance, which most everyone can get behind except the most tru-con cucks. Bernie being VP would be the ultimate F-U to the insanely corruption that has taken over both parties.

    jjbees

    March 2, 2016 at 2:20 pm

    • Interesting but I think this could depress GOP turnout by confirming the suspicions of all the conservatives who think Trump is a liberal. I think Trump on his own pulls enough independents and crossover Dems to score a convincing win against Hillary. What he needs to shore up is his right flank, not left, and unite the GOP and make sure the record turnouts continue through the general election.

      Andrew E.

      March 2, 2016 at 3:45 pm

    • If Trump was forced to run as an independent Bernie was be a genius pick as VP.It would be a winning ticket. If Trump is the Republican nominee I don’t like the idea. It would cause far too many Republicans to stay home.

      Jay Fink

      March 2, 2016 at 5:58 pm

  12. Someone needs to do the actual math on this prediction. Or is that too much work?

    Martin F.

    March 2, 2016 at 2:49 pm

    • He wouldn’t have the required number of delegates. Many of those contests are proportional, there’s the super-delegates and delegates from the territories, and Cruz’s non-southern Bible belt states will have disproportionate voting power at the convention.

      jasonbayz

      March 2, 2016 at 4:19 pm

  13. Would the selection of Kasich as VP guarantee victory in Ohio in the main election?

    Camlost

    March 2, 2016 at 2:50 pm

  14. Kasich could eventually wind up as Trump’s VP to unify the party. Otherwise, Christie is Trump’s choice for VP.

    No. Scott Brown is the VP. Christie might get AG or solicitor general. Kasich is a cabinet guy at best. Maybe HHS.

    Kasich is another Jeb Bush type.

    Rifleman

    March 2, 2016 at 2:52 pm

    • which is what makes bringing him on board so crucial. “Moderates” and even liberals love the guy and he re-assures the establishment. Remember that a million or so butthurt TruCons are going to sit out the election or vote Hillary so we need the establishment on board and we need somebody who appeal to swing voters.

      Otis the Sweaty

      March 2, 2016 at 4:51 pm

      • And let’s all remember that vice presidents don’t to anything besides go to funerals. It doesn’t matter what the VP’s policy views are. As long as Kasich looks good in a dark suit, he can do the job.

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        March 2, 2016 at 5:02 pm

      • And let’s all remember that vice presidents don’t to anything besides go to funerals.

        He does if he becomes president. Reagan’s greatest mistake was not dumping Bush 1 for a conservative VP in 1984. When the elder Bush won in 1988 he immediately purged the White House of Reagan conservatives.

        The Undiscovered Jew

        March 2, 2016 at 5:37 pm

      • The VP should be someone who would continue Trump’s immigration policies. I say Scott Brown because he appeals to similar demographics as Trump does; he’s a Northeasterner for immigration control, he appeals to suburban moderates and moderate Dems by not being an Evangelical while he’s still ‘good enough’ for Christian conservatives, and he’s mostly on board with Trump’s economic agenda. He’s also young enough to takeover after an 8 year Trump reign.

        The Undiscovered Jew

        March 2, 2016 at 5:39 pm

      • >>And let’s all remember that vice presidents don’t to anything besides go to funerals.

        If I were Vice President I wouldn’t even do as much as that. I would sit in my office all day, read books, pursue hobbies, go out fishing or hunting, visit the kids. I wouldn’t attend a single cabinet meeting, because it would be pointless. I would stay as far away from the executive functions as possible, because my only real job is to be there if The Man drops dead. Of course the Senate would have my cell phone number to call me if I needed to break a tie, but that would be the extent of my involvement with the government.

        Daniel

        March 2, 2016 at 6:24 pm

      • No good hunting in DC.

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        March 2, 2016 at 7:35 pm

  15. No way Kasich would be VP. Did you see the ad he made comparing Trump to Hitler? He wouldn’t agree to it, Trump wouldn’t agree to it, and, if it somehow happened, the Democrats would be having a field day. “If Trump’s own vice presidential candidate doesn’t trust him, how can you?”

    jasonbayz

    March 2, 2016 at 4:16 pm

    • In exchange for Kasich’s support in the general election campaing in Ohio, Trump should offer Kasich HUD, or some other unimportant department, where he can’t do damage.

      If Trump still needs delegates he can cut a deal with Cruz to give him Scalia’s SCOTUS seat.

      The Undiscovered Jew

      March 2, 2016 at 5:41 pm

  16. I would have expected Scott Brown or Guliani before. I think Trump really needs a black VP to be able to bring in some black voters and deflect the racism smears. Maybe Herman Cain?

    Winston

    March 2, 2016 at 5:10 pm

  17. Aside from the National Black Republican Association, Mike Tyson & Dennis Rodman, another example that Trump might be likely to draw some working class black voters.

    http://blog.dilbert.com/post/140353736681/a-letter-to-donald-trump-from-a-voter-not-me

    Julian

    March 2, 2016 at 6:31 pm

  18. I cannot understand why people vote for Kasich. Booooooooooooooooooring!

    Tarl

    March 2, 2016 at 6:45 pm

  19. Lion, you haven’t yet chosen one plausible VP candidate! I only read you analysis because I don’t know about all these red states and blue states. So the way to you disect them and drill down is all I know, but there is no way Trump can have these guys as VP. No way!

    Yakov

    March 2, 2016 at 7:09 pm

    • In 1980, Bush who called Reagan’s economic plan “voodoo economics” was selected VP and did an excellent job at it.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      March 2, 2016 at 7:42 pm


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