Lion of the Blogosphere

Trump weak in the Midwest, strong in the Deep South.

Trump lost in Texas, Oklahoma, Minnesota, and Iowa, all Midwest states.

On the other hand, Trump does well in Deep South states, or at least well enough to win them.

Trump does best in coastal blue states.

Luckily for Trump, there aren’t too many delegates left in the midwest. Even if he loses Kansas, Nebraska and the Dakotas, there aren’t a whole lot of delegates in those states.

Trump will also probably lose Utah because the Mormon vote will go to Rubio.

* * *

On Saturday, therefore I predict that Trump loses the Kansas caucus, but wins the Maine caucus, the Kentucky caucus, and the Louisiana primary.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

March 2, 2016 at 12:11 am

Posted in Politics

40 Responses

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  1. Trump on Ryan:

    “I’m going to get along great with Congress,” Trump said. “Paul Ryan, I don’t know him well, but I’m sure I’ll get along great with him. If I don’t, he’ll have to pay a big price. OK?”

    LOL. Forget Presidential, he sounds like a Mafia Don.


    March 2, 2016 at 12:23 am

  2. States that actually have to deal with large minority populations back Trump.

    States with the luxury of not having to confront the costs of diversity don’t appreciate Trump.

    Samuel Nock

    March 2, 2016 at 12:33 am

    • TX is full of Mexicans and they went for Cruz. Mass doesn’t have many blacks and they went for Trump big time. Vermont went for Trump, right? They don’t have many minorities.


      March 2, 2016 at 9:48 am

    • So I predict my state will reject Trump…they’re so naive and self-righteous about minorities here in Montana, because they have so few.

      Mrs Stitch

      March 2, 2016 at 9:52 am

  3. Yes, Trump is similar to FDR, and his support base is similar to FDR’s New Deal coalition of the South and northeast/northern working class, Catholics, etc. Trump like FDR is weakest among the Midwestern Protestants. FDR was also weakest among New England Protestants but New England is no longer very Protestant and is similar to the rest of the northeast.


    March 2, 2016 at 12:34 am

  4. Will that be enough delegates, if so?


    March 2, 2016 at 12:38 am

  5. TX and OK are southern states, not midwestern. Big midwest states remaining are OH, IL, IN, WI, MI. There’s a boatload of delegates there still. I expect Trump to win most of them.

    The strip of states along the 100th meridian, the dividing line between rain-fed agriculture and only irrigated agriculture and the states over the giant but depleting Ogallala Aquifer are sometimes known as the plains states. They are TX, OK, KS, NE, SD, and ND. If you want to predict Trump trouble there, like a fajita strip up the country, I can’t disagree. ND will be all GOPe and doesn’t even hold a contest — GOPe party bosses hand pick all the delegates without a primary or straw poll or anything.


    March 2, 2016 at 12:53 am

    • Those are mostly Rust Belt states where Trump is strong.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      March 2, 2016 at 1:01 am

    • “nd the states over the giant but depleting Ogallala Aquifer”

      @owentt – I’ve been hearing that the Ogallala Aquifer has been depleting for 40 years. Is it finally sputtering out? What’s going on? Will we have another Dust Bowl?


      March 2, 2016 at 9:06 am

      • It’s really enormous — both wide and deep — and you can just keep drilling deeper and more expensive wells for a long time to keep using it. But once it’s gone, it’s gone. There’s no recharge. The water in it comes from a long lost geological era and can’t be replaced.

        A dust bowl requires plowing or overgrazing, both of which need more water than rainfall will produce. The edges of the plains will be watered by mountain pipelines and river projects, but most of the land will become unproductive for farming. I predict the fences will come down and the most profitable use of the land will be buffalo or cattle drives to consume seasonal grass that doesn’t grow enough to support stationary grazing. The usually doesn’t lead to dust bowl conditions unless you overgraze.

        That will slowly develop over a period of a century; it’s not a crisis but just a change in way of life in a region that’s already depopulating. Plus, buffalo drives will become a tourist attraction.


        March 2, 2016 at 5:43 pm

  6. Weakness in the Midwest is the whole ballgame, as far as the general is concerned. This is why Trump will lose.

    My far left Facebook buds are celebrating this evening’s results. Their party is debating how left to be; the GOP is experiencing an epic meltdown.


    March 2, 2016 at 1:02 am

    • You are delusional.

      Even if Trump loses to Hillary by 20 points he has mainstreamed racism and xenophobia. Even if we lose, we win.

      Otis the Sweaty

      March 2, 2016 at 9:12 am

    • Forgive me if I don’t give the authority of your FB friends the respect it deserves, but any citation to a published authority that takes it as a given Trump or the R nominee will lose the Midwest?


      March 2, 2016 at 9:54 am

  7. Trump had the opportunity to win it all. He didn’t. This was not a good night. The nomination was his to take, but his last debate performance cost him a few tics. He should never have lost Oklahoma. Thankfully, his excellent open media performance earned him credibility. He needs to pivot big time to respectability because his clown show is not closing the deal and Rubio/Cruz are drawing blood. Further, he’s still down on Hillary. The Rebbe is getting neurotic. Trump needs to up his game.

    ((( The Rebbe )))

    March 2, 2016 at 1:21 am

    • Rebbe, calm down. This was not a great night for Trump but expectations were too high to begin with. This reminds me of the meltdowns in some areas after Trump lost the IA caucuses. He was never going to win OK, which is full of religious people and true-cons. A general election against Hillary would be different.


      March 2, 2016 at 9:09 am

    • I noticed the press was trying to spin Trump as “sounding more like a general election candidate” in his victory press conference, but they were going to say that anyway. I didn’t think he sounded very “general election” at all. He is still terrible at questions, which always just generate word-salad rambles of often completely unrelated slogans and talking-points, and he missed many opportunities to sew ambiguity about some of his harsher policy proposals.

      Moderate, calm, humble, strategic. I would use none of those words to describe what I saw from him last night.

      Martin F.

      March 2, 2016 at 10:16 am

  8. Lion, Heartiste just blogged about you:

    Dave Pinsen

    March 2, 2016 at 2:18 am

    • By linking to CH back in ’08, Lion had a LOT to do with helping CH’s identity morph from Washington DC player/cad to alt-right spokesman.


      March 2, 2016 at 9:56 am

  9. In the still more-likely-than-not event that Hillary wins the general, Cruz is setting himself up like Reagan, Dole, McCain, Romney after their initial primary losses – as the Next-in-Line Guy for 2020. (In an earlier comment, I correctly predicted Cruz’s win in the Texas primary.)

    Hillary is such a spent force and a recession is likely to happen during her term – highly probable that she is a one-termer though that will give her plenty of time to ruin the Supreme Court.


    March 2, 2016 at 3:17 am

    • Cruz is unloved, and the fact that he and all the rest was pushed aside by a bumptious outsider like Trump reflects their weaknesses. In such an event, the guy who wins in 2020 will probably be somebody who astutely commandeers Trump’s most potent causes while keeping a Romney-like demeanor, and that isn’t anybody who ran this year.


      March 2, 2016 at 11:22 am

  10. But there’s also the fact that Trump has received only 34 percent of the Republican vote, aggregated across all primaries and caucuses to have voted so far. He did not really improve on that figure on Super Tuesday; Trump had a combined 33 percent of the vote through the first four states (Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Nevada); he got 34 percent in Super Tuesday states themselves.

    Lloyd Llewellyn

    March 2, 2016 at 8:09 am

  11. This is a good analysis:

    Trump dominated last night. It was a “nightmare” for GOPe. Only crazy alt-righters are sad that Trump didn’t win everywhere, with 100% of the vote. Even John Podhoretz is conceding this. What did we learn last night? True-cons are a significant part of the Republican party. Wow, who’da thunk?


    March 2, 2016 at 9:37 am

    • The GOPe brainiacs seemed to come up with a plan on Twitter last night: all candidates stay in. I’m sure the donor class won’t mind sending money to Carson, Kasich, Rubio et al to keep them going. Then a brokered convention is a sure thing It would be the first one in my memory.

      Though I was never a fan, I am kind of soft on Trump and have to keep talking myself out of it. I really have doubts about his ability to lead, given the intense loathing in DC.

      Mrs Stitch

      March 2, 2016 at 10:10 am

      • Exactly Mrs Stitch… they are piling delusion on top of delusion. Now all candidates stay in, then at the convention the far more popular candidate is tossed out and replaced by a candidate selected by insiders in a smoke-filled back-room deal. Then the betrayed party voters rally around the selected guy, and this enthusiastic support rubs off on voters outside the party, who carry the candidate to victory over Clinton in the general.

        March 2, 2016 at 11:23 am

      • Steve, it’s not about winning the presidency. They know full well that pulling such a coup would ensure a Republican loss to Hillary. The point is for the old guard to retain power in the GOP, both in terms of jobs and agenda. Their hope is that 2016 was just a fluky Black Swan year and that by 2020 it will have all burned out and they can get back to nominating guys like Bush and Rubio.


        March 2, 2016 at 11:46 am

  12. The biggest deal last night was that it was Cruz’s last gasp. He doesn’t have anymore states where he can thump his Bible. The Stupid Christians cost us IA and OK (can’t blame them for TX, MN and AK) and hurt our margins in every other part of the South. Well we are done with the Bible Belt now and we are also done with Cruz’s fraud of a campaign.

    It’s good that we edged out Kasich in VT. Truthfully, VT and NH rightfully belong to the Establishment but the way they split their votes allowed Trump to win both of them.

    Trump is going to win FLA big, but Ohio is a huge concern. Kasich is beloved and when you add in TrueCons and Shitlibs who will strategically vote for Kasich to stop Trump I have to say that at this point Kasich is the favorite there. We need to win OH or I don’t think we can get to 1237 delegates.

    Otis the Sweaty

    March 2, 2016 at 9:51 am

  13. Did you see this photo of voters at the Democratic Party Caucus in Minnesota:


    March 2, 2016 at 9:53 am

  14. Wow, Minnesota Republicans are the most cucked out people in the nation. I mean, I can sort of see voting for Cruz if you’re a “yeeah ‘MURCA and liberty and the Constitution!” kind of Republican nimrod, but Rubio? Good god. What the hell is wrong with those people? Hasn’t the vibrant influence of Somalis been enough to teach them a lesson?

    Oh yeah… Swedes. Self annihilators all the way down. It’s fascinating to watch people literally voting for their own destruction.


    March 2, 2016 at 9:59 am

  15. Overall Trump didn’t do as well as expected and on closer examination did not “dominate”.

    So far the delegate count for the night is Trump 234, Cruz 209, Rubio 90, Kasich 19, Carson 3 with 40 delegates including 26 from TX and OK still undetermined.

    Of the 10 states, Trump won 4 by large margins (AL, GA, TN, MA), won 3 by narrow margins (AR, VT, VA) and lost 4 (TX, OK, MN, AK).

    Trump won 35% of the total vote and would have almost certainly lost the 3 close races without Kasich and Carson. In a two man race against Cruz he would have lost between 6 and 9 of the races. Cruz won 3 states and is still hanging on, albeit with a rapidly narrowing path to victory.

    Rubio fared the worst but fortunately for Trump the Minnesota win gives Rubio a reason to hang around until Florida, March 15th. This Saturday, March 5th, four more states will probably not vote for Rubio (LA, KY, KS, ME).

    So that leaves the GOPe with some serious thinking to do. If they keep pushing Rubiocito the best they can hope for is a brokered convention with Trump having a plurality of the votes. If that happens, replacing Trump using backroom tactics would be political suicide. Of course, the more likely outcome would be that this causes Cruz and Rubio continue to split the vote allowing Trump wins the delegates he needs and clinch the nomination.

    On the other hand they could rally behind Cruz but that’s unlikely since they’ve already decided amnesty or bust!

    The best hope for Cruz is if Rubio’s polls continue to tank in Florida and Rubio and Kasich drop out before March 15th. I really doubt that will happen because the establishment views the problem as “how can we stop Trump and Cruz?” not “how can we stop Trump?”


    March 2, 2016 at 10:42 am

    • The think tank guys are OK with electoral suicide. Bill Kristol is already calling for all rival candidates to work in tandem to deny Trump a majority of the delegates, so that a brokered convention can nix him. He admits this would ensure a Clinton presidency, but that’s fine by him so long as his group retains control of the party. If you’re them, it’s not suicide so long as they still have titles and salaries.


      March 2, 2016 at 11:38 am

  16. Regarding LoBS’ conclusions on “coastal states” the only data we have on the west coast is Alaska and a 12/16 – 1/3 poll showing Cruz up by +2 at a time when Trump was already up by double digits in Nevada.

    The west coast Republicans have a different brand of libertarianism that tolerates religious language that would turn off NE Republicans. In New England they think of Puritans who want to establish a theocracy while in the West they think of Mormons and fundies as people who just want to live and let live.

    I predict that on Saturday Trump will win Maine and Kentucky while Cruz wins Kansas and Louisiana.


    March 2, 2016 at 10:59 am

    • Louisiana strikes me as more like Arkansas and the Deep South states Trump won than Texas or Oklahoma, so I think Trump will win it, but I agree Kansas is gone. A shame too, because Trump’s weakness in the Plains States corridor makes it less likely Ben Sasse will get primaried for his anti-Trump stunts.


      March 2, 2016 at 12:02 pm

  17. “TX and OK are southern states, not midwestern”

    I think LOB is falling into the habit of most people in New York City and using the term “Midwest” as a synonym for “flyover country”. Also his point in this case is stronger than the data can support.

    What constitutes the “Midwest” is somewhat fuzzier than for other regions of the country. Some people use the term only for the Plains states. Some people exclude the Plains states. Are Missouri, Kentucky, and Oklahoma in the Midwest or the South? Is Pittsburgh in the Midwest or in the Northeast. You can find long arguments on the internets over these matters.


    March 2, 2016 at 10:59 am

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