Lion of the Blogosphere

Hawaii gamble

predict_hi

I finally signed up for this. How stupid I am for not getting involved sooner.

If Rubio wins Hawaii, I lose $13.

But if Kasich pulls off an upset win, I win $297.

https://www.predictit.org/ (If you contact them through Twitter, they will send you a promo code for a free $25.)

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

March 4, 2016 at 1:58 pm

Posted in Politics

27 Responses

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  1. I’ve been laying bets against Bush and Rubio for almost a year at this point. It’s a testament to the mind control powers of the media that there are people out there who overvalue these two nobodies so much.

    It feels bad to trick money from children and well-meaning fools. But taking the money of the smug people who take the NYT seriously is an indulgence, I’d also pee in their cereal if it were opportune.

    AnonymousCoward

    March 4, 2016 at 2:13 pm

    • I recently had a conversation with the chief executive at a major conservative newspaper. (Yeah, I roll like that.)

      I talked about Trump. He was very quiet. And then he said, “I really liked Bush but for some reason he didn’t catch on.” (!)

      These poor souls are laboring mightily, but they are flying blind.

      Dan

      March 4, 2016 at 4:16 pm

  2. If prediction markets are of interest to you, check out Augur and maybe invest a bit into its tokens. It will launch with real money Q2 2016.

    Alex

    March 4, 2016 at 2:52 pm

  3. where is this? I’m looking all over.

    Mrs Stitch

    March 4, 2016 at 3:16 pm

  4. Promo code? Sign up your readers bonus?

    owentt

    March 4, 2016 at 3:23 pm

  5. Can you provide a link to whatever that betting site is? Thanks!

    XC12345

    March 4, 2016 at 3:34 pm

  6. I just bought at 29¢ for Trump to win the Presidency. I think it’ll tighten up quite a bit in the fall time, and I may sell before November.

    Thanks for the link. This’ll be fun, and your insight will win some bets that are mispriced.

    DdR

    March 4, 2016 at 4:10 pm

  7. “But if Kasich pulls off an upset win, I win $297.”

    Wouldn’t you win $291? They pay out $1/share for your 300 shares, or $300, you paid out $0.03/share for your 300 shares, or $9. The difference is $291.

    DdR

    March 4, 2016 at 4:13 pm

  8. Where is it hosted? There was a US prediction market that got shut down and, i believe, all the money people had bet was seized.

    Lloyd Llewellyn

    March 4, 2016 at 4:14 pm

  9. Lion, you are going to turn your readers into compulsive gamblers.

    Gozo

    March 4, 2016 at 4:44 pm

  10. What do they mean when they say, “tweet your favorite market”?

    gothamette

    March 4, 2016 at 6:19 pm

  11. I just tweeted at them and they favorited my tweet but haven’t given me a promo code yet.

    Dave Pinsen

    March 4, 2016 at 7:01 pm

  12. Did you see this story, Lion? In addition to his backtracking on the visas, Trump is now also backtracking on his promise to force the military to do his bidding even when it breaks the law: http://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-reverses-his-stance-on-torture-1457116559

    Hok

    March 4, 2016 at 7:13 pm

    • He realized he put his foot in his mouth. That’s a good thing that he realized that and is taking it back.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      March 4, 2016 at 7:13 pm

      • Correct. He really can’t force the military to obey an unlawful order (although there is a lot of leeway as to what that actually is). But I love the irony that the same people who defended Bush’s waterboarding (full disclosure I’m one of them) now suddenly find waterboarding abhorrent.

        It really is who/whom

        Mike Street Station

        March 5, 2016 at 8:54 am

      • Was it lawful to order the military to invade Pakistan’s sovereignty and assassinate someone?

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        March 5, 2016 at 9:17 am

      • “Was it lawful to order the military to invade Pakistan’s sovereignty and assassinate someone?”

        It might not be. It’s definitely not under international law, but the pursuit of the head of Al Qaeda would be covered under the 2001 AUMF. But who is going to bring that up? The left, which worships international law, also worships Obama…so stalemate.

        Mike Street Station

        March 5, 2016 at 9:25 am

      • “It’s definitely not under international law”

        In that case, that’s the answer Trump should have used at the debate instead of putting his foot in his mouth and making himself sound like a dictator.

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        March 5, 2016 at 9:28 am

      • “In that case, that’s the answer Trump should have used at the debate instead of putting his foot in his mouth and making himself sound like a dictator.”

        I don’t think arguing that killing Bin Ladin was against International law is a winning debate argument. Maybe in Brussels, but not in the US.

        Mike Street Station

        March 5, 2016 at 10:44 am

  13. My only bet so far is for $100 (straight up) that Clinton will NOT be indicted before the election.

    Vince

    March 4, 2016 at 7:28 pm

    • I don’t have any basis for evaluating whether the current odds are correct or not. I suspect you are right. But you will have to have the $100 tied up for a long time before it pays off.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      March 4, 2016 at 7:59 pm

    • I think it is about 7 one to 1 against being indicted. Another prediction market gives 73 to 27. I do not think Hillary would be charged.

      Latias

      March 5, 2016 at 8:07 am


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