Lion of the Blogosphere

Saturday Republican elections and the race for third place

Yes, it’s kind of strange that who comes in third place matters, but it does quite a bit.

I predict that Rubio’s star is fading and that some of the people who would have voted for him are going to go somewhere else.

Rubio actually has two main bases of support. The first is from evangelical Christian types who want a candidate who is a True Believer in Christ (and they see that in Rubio because he says that women who were raped shouldn’t be allowed to have an abortion) but who also want someone more moderate than Cruz. Rubio’s other base of support are those who think he is the moderate candidate, on account of the fact that the GOP establishment pushes him as the moderate candidate, ignoring the fact that he was supported by the Tea Party once upon a time, and that he has extreme anti-abortion views, and wants to shoot down Russian planes in Syria.

I predict that some of Rubio’s evangelical support will go to Cruz, and some of his establishment/moderate-wing support will go to Kasich. In today’s elections, what we will see is that in the three Bible states, Rubio will do worse than he did on Super Tuesday, falling further behind Cruz and Trump. I predict that Rubio will not get a single finish better than third place.

If Kasich beats Rubio for third place in any state but Maine, that would indicate the complete collapse of the Rubio campaign! But I don’t think it will happen. However in Maine, Kasich will probably come in a strong second, and Rubio could even come in fourth in Maine behind Cruz. Maine is a sparsely attended event in which, previously, Ron Paul supporters turned out en masse, so anything could happen in Maine. But I think Trump will win because his supporters are the most passionate, and that passion will translate into going to the caucus. Trump did very well in Massachusetts as well as in New Hampshire. Maine is the most prole of all the New England states, and that generally means that Trump does well because he is the candidate for the proles. On the other hand, I will not be completely shocked if Kasich, or even Cruz pulls off an upset victory. Kasich could win if anti-Trumpers are passionate enough about hating Trump to come out and vote for Kasich, the only adult in the race.

* * *

There are four states voting for Republicans today, listed in the order in which we will start getting results:

Kansas caucus: Trump led by a few points in the only poll, but the consensus is that Cruz will win because Cruz is strong in caucus states, and Kansas is like Oklahoma where Cruz vastly outperformed the polls.

Kentucky caucus: I believe that Kentucky will vote like a Deep South state because it’s full of rednecks, and therefore Trump will win.

Maine caucus: I wrote about Maine in detail above.

Louisiana primary: Deep South state which will vote Trump.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

March 5, 2016 at 12:51 pm

Posted in Politics

55 Responses

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  1. This post should at a minimum name which states are voting today.


    March 5, 2016 at 12:55 pm

  2. “If Kasich beats Rubio for third place in any state but Maine, that would indicate the complete collapse of the Rubio campaign!”

    We must carpet bomb his twitter profile with gifs of guac bowls if this happens, and start calling him ¡Rub! Guac Merchant 2 might be incensed to do something stupid.


    March 5, 2016 at 1:44 pm

  3. I get nervous before these things. Cast my vote in Louisiana Let’s go BATTLESHIP TRUMP.

    Sagi Is My Guru

    March 5, 2016 at 1:45 pm

  4. Totally OT, but I’m ROFL:

    “Authorities say Trentavious White, 28, known as “Bankroll Fresh” died from his injuries suffered at Street Execs Studio on Defoor Place.”


    March 5, 2016 at 2:42 pm

    • How come stuff like that only happens to rappers and never to classical violinists?

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      March 5, 2016 at 3:21 pm

    • About 2-3 “aspring rappers” get shot each year like this at recording studios in Atlanta. It’s the world’s most dangerous profession.


      March 5, 2016 at 11:26 pm

    • Wow. I know where that place is at…


      March 5, 2016 at 11:39 pm

  5. Rubio doesn’t have evangelical support. The evangelicals support Cruz and Trump. Rubio’s support seems to be limited to more educated, upper middle class, professional and establishment types.


    March 5, 2016 at 2:43 pm

    • Rubio’s a good talker but I find it offensive that the establishment really thinks it can win by putting forth a cute young white Hispanic as an ideal candidate, their answer to Obama. They really think like that: love us love us we has minorities.

      Mrs Stitch

      March 5, 2016 at 4:11 pm

  6. One thing that really impresses me about Trump is how great his instincts are. Socially, Trump’s views are certainly the same as Giuliani’s: pro gay marriage, pro abortion, doesn’t care about Christianity. But whereas Giuliani was stupid enough to be honest about it, Trump knew that most republican primary voters only cared about those things as identity signifiers, not on actual substance. So he has mouthed SoCon stuff and even though nobody buys it, it still is enough to win over enough ostensibly Evangelical voters in the primaries.

    Otis the Sweaty

    March 5, 2016 at 2:46 pm

    • He’s pretty shameless about it, too. Why have you been audited for the past 12(!) years, Mr. Trump? “Because I’m a strong Christian.”


      March 5, 2016 at 4:02 pm

      • Because there’s a lot of income and the returns are complicated. The IRS focuses on audits that are likely to generate money. There’s no profit in auditing a little person.

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        March 5, 2016 at 4:13 pm

      • Sure, that’s where the money is. He’s more likely to be audited because he’s a multi-billionaire, not because he’s a “strong Christian.” It’s such a ridiculous lie, in part because Trump’s NOT a strong Christian, but he gets away with it.


        March 5, 2016 at 6:07 pm

      • >>There’s no profit in auditing a little person.

        Except if that little person has accused a powerful Democratic of rape/sexual harassment: Paul Jones, Juanita Broaddrick, Gennifer Flowers, Elizabeth Ward Gracen


        March 5, 2016 at 6:55 pm

  7. Why didn’t you mention that Kansas is full of Stupid Christians? That is the real reason people expect Cruz to win there. Not because it is a caucus state.

    Otis the Sweaty

    March 5, 2016 at 2:48 pm

    • I said that “Kansas is like Oklahoma where Cruz vastly outperformed the polls.”

      I don’t think there’s any need to always call Christians stupid. Maybe misguided or lacking in wisdom or not having a good long game.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      March 5, 2016 at 3:19 pm

      • I have stated repeatedly that I do not regard Christians as stupid. Ann Coulter is a Christian. So is Laura Ingraham.

        But people who vote for Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum? Yeah, they are stupid. To not call them stupid is to essentially lie by omission. Why aren’t you willing to speak truth to power about the people who have ruined America?

        Otis the Sweaty

        March 5, 2016 at 3:47 pm

      • At least the stupid Christians still have babies. Whatever the rationale, the child-free are infertile, sterile, and impotent, long game.

        Mrs Stitch

        March 5, 2016 at 4:16 pm

  8. Results for Kansas are already starting to come in, and they will please Otis greatly:


    March 5, 2016 at 3:45 pm

  9. Cruz smoked Trump in Kansas. Cruz currently leads Trump by 10% in Maine. Both are closed caucus states.

    It looks like Rubio has collapsed and Cruz is setting up as the main challenger. Do the establishment prefer him to Trump?


    March 5, 2016 at 4:24 pm

    • If Cruz and Trump slug each other out it’s doubtful either will reach a delegate majority. Then it’s a brokered convention, which is what the establishment has wanted all along since Rubio flopped, and that way Romney gets nominated (or Ryan, if the GOPe feels anointing Trump’s nemesis would be in bad taste).


      March 5, 2016 at 5:14 pm

  10. One reason Cruz is doing better than Trump today is that today’s primaries/caucases are closed, meaning that Democrats and Independents can’t vote in the Republican primaries or cauceses in places like Kansas. Trump has been getting a lot of votes from Dems and Independents.


    March 5, 2016 at 5:01 pm

  11. “Maine is the most prole of all the New England states”

    Rhode Island is more prole.



    March 5, 2016 at 5:21 pm

    • When I think of Rhode Island, I think of Newport. I also thought of some islands which turn out to be owned by Massachusetts and not Rhode Island.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      March 5, 2016 at 5:41 pm

  12. Rubio is going on long term vacation minata

    K.l. Asher

    March 5, 2016 at 5:24 pm

  13. I don’t think Trump realizes that Cruz is out tough talking him on immigration. This is Trump’s chance. He can shame Ted Cruz for wanting to increase legal immigration by 500% while also calling for a legal immigration reduction. It’s the only tough talk on immigration option he’s got left.


    March 5, 2016 at 5:47 pm

  14. How the Hell did we lose Maine? This is the most mystifying Trump loss yet. Maine was supposed to be ours. There are no Stupid Christians in Maine.

    Otis the Sweaty

    March 5, 2016 at 7:01 pm

    • I only see 9% of the vote counted.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      March 5, 2016 at 7:16 pm

      • yeah but that margin is too much to overcome. I have to keep reminding myself that Cruz isn’t just strong amongst Stupid Christians, he’s also strong amongst Stupid TruCons. So not only does he win midwestern states, he wins states like AK and ME which are filled with Stupid TruCons.

        Otis the Sweaty

        March 5, 2016 at 7:38 pm



        March 5, 2016 at 7:42 pm

    • What’s Maine got like 20 to win?

      K.l. Asher

      March 5, 2016 at 7:19 pm

    • Caucuses are only open to party members, and subject those who show up to social pressure. Fortunately, there are few caucuses left; today was an anomaly.

      There are a fair number of closed Republican primaries, though (including California, which looks like it may actually be relevant this year); get all the Trump supporters you know in those states to register as a Republican in time.


      March 5, 2016 at 7:29 pm

  15. Cruz doing very well. One thing we should remember through all this is how intelligent the candidates are. Especially verbally. There’s a reason most presidents and politicians are lawyers.

    Cruz’s legal career is actually very impressive. If you were to chart verbal IQ, he would definitely be near the top of congress.

    And so his campaign is the most organised and efficient as well as his not much praised but pretty effective strategy of painting Trump as a New York liberal (which funnily enough, on social issues, he really is).

    His ratio of normal campaign v PAC/bribery money is the lowest (trump aside of course), which means there’s genuine support for him as well.

    Whatever happens, Cruz has proven he really is the only person that can hang with Trump in what has to be the craziest primary in modern history. While he disgusts me as a person, he’s winning my respect, and much more commendably, even Donald’s. Possible VP?

    The Philosopher

    March 5, 2016 at 7:23 pm

  16. Looks like a Trump vs Cruz primary. I don’t know how Rubio can be a realistic contender with so many 3rd place losses. Kasich is only 3rd in Maine? He needs to pack it in.


    March 5, 2016 at 7:50 pm

    • The longer Rubio stays in, the better it is for Trump, especially as states move to winner-take-all. Even Lindsey Graham is coming to terms with supporting Cruz.


      March 5, 2016 at 8:56 pm

  17. Lot’s of Stupid Midwestern Christians in Kentucky and Kentucky is a caucus state. KY isn’t made to order for Cruz like OK, IA and KS but it is still the kind of state he needs to win. A decisive Trump victory there shows that Cruz can’t expand his map.

    Otis the Sweaty

    March 5, 2016 at 8:00 pm

    • Kentucky is the the south.


      March 5, 2016 at 8:44 pm

      • western KY is like the Midwest. Lot’s of Stupid Christians.

        Pretty good night for us. Sure, the cucks will proclaim victory but big wins in LA and KY show that Trump will win where he needs to, and win big. Even in closed primaries that the cucks were counting on saving them.

        Maine is one of those weird states like AK. Closed caucus with lots of insane TruCons. Great places for Cruz. No more places like that left though.

        The only states from here on out that we should lose are OH, HI and UT.

        Otis the Sweaty

        March 5, 2016 at 9:23 pm

      • No, it’s not.


        March 5, 2016 at 9:32 pm

      • I’ll be surprised if Trump wins Nebraska, Idaho and Montana. Most of the upcoming primaries are closed, which takes away one of Trump’s advantages. TruCons unfortunately are everywhere, especially west of the Mississippi. In my own state of California, for example, Cruz was leading Trump in the last poll taken, which doesn’t surprise me one bit.


        March 5, 2016 at 10:34 pm

      • Yes, it is. I live in northern Illinois and it is nothing like southern Illinois and really nothing like Kentucky.

        Even southern Indiana is part of Dixie.

        ” Southern Indiana, he wrote, “is definitely part of Dixie, and has been ever since the Coppherheads (those Northerners who sympathized with the Confederates in the 1860s).””

        Look at the red religion map in the link. You can also tell by how people talk.

        ” Similarly, the Army of the Ohio suggested that the Ohio River was the western border between North and South, which seems reasonable if you consider Kentucky southern and Ohio northern.”

        “If you look at the Kentucky/Ohio and Kentucky/Indiana borders, you’ll also see that the southern state is overwhelmingly Baptist while the northern one is a mix of Catholics, Methodists, and Presbyterians. Not surprisingly, the Baptist counties in southern Illinois supported Stephen A. Douglas (who founded a Baptist seminary) over Lincoln, who was a Presbyterian.

        The divide roughly follows the Ohio River, but it cuts across West Virginia, where the southern tier is Baptist and speaks will a drawl and the northern tier is ethnic and cheers for the Steelers.”

        Southern Indiana is even part of Dixie.

        In the “Nine Nations of North America,” Joel Garreau noted that there are “substantial differences in food, architecture, the layout of towns, and music to either side of that highway.” Southern Indiana, he wrote, “is definitely part of Dixie, and has been ever since the Coppherheads (those Northerners who sympathized with the Confederates in the 1860s).”


        March 5, 2016 at 10:37 pm

  18. The elimination of Rubio tonight is a good thing even if it means some Cruz victories. If Trump pulls out KY and LA, all good. On to MS and MI on Tuesday.

    Andrew E.

    March 5, 2016 at 8:15 pm

    • I was thinking that too. I think Cruz is a legit challenger, but I think Trump vs Cruz is Trump’s best situation at this point. There would no longer be the risk of a brokered convention, and Trump would probably do better when he’s not trading insults with Rubio. Trump would still have a good chance to win, and things would be less muddled. I doubt Rubio and Kasich drop out though.


      March 5, 2016 at 9:10 pm

  19. The GOPe could have handed that Maine win to anyone they wanted. It’s heavily controlled by the GOP out of Kennebunkport, low turnout, caucus. Then they trot out some reps for a news conference to set the media narrative. So transparent.

    But they’re running out of cards to play as evidenced that they’re now having to push votes towards Cruz who they loathe but who is not anti-establishment. Only one outsider is running.

    Andrew E.

    March 5, 2016 at 9:18 pm

  20. This article about France by Christopher Caldwell is as usual brilliant, and has many echoes in the US:

    “It is better in some ways to be an immigrant in a housing project in La Courneuve, outside of Paris, Guilluy believes, than to be cut off from the global economy in what he calls “peripheral France.” The people who live there are doing badly, and they are coming to see this as the outcome of a deliberate policy. In January, INSEE, France’s national demographics bureau, announced that the life expectancy of French people of both sexes had fallen for the first time since World War II.”

    Perhaps what is happening to white Americans is now happening to native French people. Your own elites are exterminating you.


    March 5, 2016 at 9:25 pm

    • This is obvious enough.

      I frequently wonder why?

      It is obviously enough that the elites benefit by the widening rich/everyone else moat. They institute this systemically, not strategically.

      Socially Extinct

      March 5, 2016 at 11:03 pm

  21. What happened in Maine is that the Party instructed Rubio supporters to go to Cruz to deny Trump. It is a caucus state and they can do that. This is why Rubio, a GOPe, bombed out while Cruz did so well.


    March 5, 2016 at 9:47 pm

  22. The cucks are trying to minimize our Glorious Leader’s win!

    He matched his polls in LA, winning 41+% in a 4 way race. He also scored a victory in Kentucky, a caucus state filled with Stupid Chrisitans.

    KS was quite an achievement for Cruz, but it is basically Ohio except that this time, Rubio wasn’t viable and Carson was out. Maine is full of crazy people and was super low turnout so who cares.

    Basically Trump wins the real states and Cruz wins the joke states. Tonight was a victory for Trump, period.

    Otis the Sweaty

    March 5, 2016 at 11:19 pm

  23. Ok so I’m sure LotBS will get to this soon, but here’s what happened. Trump lost the nomination in the last few days and probably specifically at the debate Thursday and the voters are finally seeing this as a two-man race. Here’s the evidence:

    +Kansas: 3/3 polls were Trump +6, Cruz won +25, that’s an incredible **31** POINT SWING

    +Louisiana: 3 March polls avg Trump +16 and looks like it will finish +4, that’s a **12** POINT SWING.
    Interestingly, the absentee ballots came in first were 2 to 1 Trump.

    +Kentucky: 2/22-2/26 poll was Trump +20 over Cruz. Trump won by +4, that’s a **16** POINT SWING
    Same deal with

    +Maine: no polls, but no one expected Cruz to win by +13 over Trump and an amazing +34 win over 3rd place Kasich. Based on NH and VT, this looks like another

    Tonight shows that 1) Trump is damaged goods, 2) Marco Rubio and John Kasich have NO business being in the race. From here on out, people are going to see the race as Trump vs. Cruz. Hell, there are TWENTY STATES that have voted. Kasich came in third in the Cincinnati suburbs behind Cruz and Trump.

    I was surprised to here Trump say he wants a two man race. Not sure what why he would say that. Is it reverse psychology since he’s sees that as likely to happen or is he really afraid of a brokered convention. I’m guessing the former.



    March 5, 2016 at 11:19 pm

    • again, Trump only did bad in low turnout Caucus states that were dominated by either a) Stupid Christians or b) Crazy people.

      He did great in LA, got what the polls said he would. Cruz consolidated some TDSers but so what, still wasn’t enough to best our Glorious Leader in KY or LA.

      There are no more crazy states left and only one Stupid Mormon state.

      All the polls show Trump beating Cruz in a 2 man race if it comes to that. Trump isn’t using reverse psychology, he knows that he will take Cruz if it’s one on one.

      Otis the Sweaty

      March 5, 2016 at 11:44 pm

    • I think Trump really does want a 2-man race. He doesn’t want a brokered convention, he thinks demographics favor him over Cruz in key states, and he thinks he will do well once he can focus in on Cruz alone. I think he may be right, provided he can make a case beyond the issue of Cruz’s eligibility and continually calling him a liar.

      Maybe we would see Trump and Cruz treating each other with more respect, with each keeping sight of the fact that Cruz is a potential VP pick. Cruz would be interested in the job because he is young enough to run for President as the incumbent in eight years.

      Cruz did very well tonight no matter how one cuts it, and he has a much more legitimate chance at the nomination than anyone would have guessed a couple weeks ago. Before the primaries began I said I thought Cruz was the only one who was a threat to Trump. Once the Rubio/establishment thing went into high gear I lost confidence in that, but Cruz is the one who pulled through after all.


      March 5, 2016 at 11:55 pm

      • “he is young enough to run for President as the incumbent in eight years.”

        It could be just four years. Trump/Cruz could lose to Hillary, or Trump could leave office after one term. He might get bored with the job, and he is getting pretty old.

    • All the non immigration papers suck.

      Lloyd Llewellyn

      March 6, 2016 at 8:46 am

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