Lion of the Blogosphere

ARG Michigan poll shows Kasich in the lead

Link to poll.

I don’t believe this poll. The sample size is very small, and all other polls show that Trump has a big lead in Michigan, so I think you need to assume there’s a margin-of-error type of problem.

On the other hand, I have been saying for the last few days that Kasich was going to pull ahead of Rubio, so maybe it’s happening. My predicted order of finish in Michigan is Trump, Kasich, Cruz, and Rubio in last place. I am sort of enjoying seeing Rubio’s campaign fail so miserably. I never did like the guy.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

March 6, 2016 at 12:09 am

Posted in Politics

20 Responses

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  1. Trump is starting to piss me off. When is he going to sit down and learn policy. Personal insults were entertaining at first,but if that’s all he has then he’s not presidential material, and he will be annihilated as the field winnows because more time will be available in debates to probe the candidates on substance.

    Someone said that Trump isn’t as much proposing solutions to problems as he is identifying problems. Fine, but then he is not presidential and his candidacy is a protest candidacy like Ron Paul’s.


    March 6, 2016 at 12:36 am

    • at the very least trump knows what the problems are. everybody else thinks there’s either no problem or wants to make the problems even worse. i do agree though, what the hell are his advisors doing? somebody needs to tell him he really needs to know this shit. its pretty basic.

      james n.s.w

      March 6, 2016 at 7:15 am

    • He has also never once come close to articulating how he actually plans to deport millions of people in a cost effective and humane way that doesn’t immediately turn the population against the policy when it’s covered by the media. There’s a long very bloody history of forced population transfers and anyone who is actually serious about deporting millions of illegal immigrants needs to have put a great deal of thought into exactly how they would do it.

      And I don’t even think it’s a question without an answer. You just fine people that employ, lease, and provide banking services to illegal immigrants.

      I think all presidents grate you after long enough but Trump is already starting to really piss me off.

      Lloyd Llewellyn

      March 6, 2016 at 9:17 am

      • That will cause many illegals to leave, but not enough. You still need massive real deportations. There has to be a good plan or it will fail. I want tens of millions deported, but sympathise with individual illegals – they just want a better life. Also, I think we need a law that anyone here illegals should be never allowed to come back, otherwise we won’t see the end of this.


        March 6, 2016 at 10:03 am

      • Getting illegals to leave won’t be much of a problem once you start mandating E-Verify and gradually start backdating it. Once you get E-Verify going and the SSA to start identifying to employers who is using a fraudulent SS number, these guys lose their jobs. Then what? Either they leave, or they become criminals and then they’ll get caught and have to leave. In any case, you don’t need a massive deportation plan.

        Mike Street Station

        March 6, 2016 at 2:52 pm

      • You should just kill yourself. “There’s a very bloody history of forced population transfers”, I say who cares. These people who come to America come here to free load. They are not coming to be your friend. They are here to sponge money from normal white Americans who could spend that money on their families. But apparently defrauding white people is the only “moral” thing left in the country.


        March 6, 2016 at 3:12 pm

      • @NotWesely

        Many illegals quite happily work very hard and for very low wages while getting no benefits. I see them on construction sites all the time. When given access to government programs, they will take advantage of them like most people. It’s really the government’s fault, not their’s.

        If an illegal has a tax idea will E-vetify consider him eligible for employment.


        March 6, 2016 at 4:25 pm

      • You still need massive real deportations.

        Trump only needs to deport a percentage of them to scare the rest into leaving. Eisenhower deported a fraction of the total illegals in the ’50s, the majority self-deported.

        The Undiscovered Jew

        March 6, 2016 at 7:28 pm

      • Trump does need to sit down with his policy people so he can avoid screwups in debates like he had with visas, interrogations, or when he said he was in favor of a mandate and then had to clarify. In the latter case he seemed to be referring to a catastrophic insurance mandate, the only one that makes sense, but some Republican voters may have interpreted that to mean support for Obamacare mandates.

        I know he prefers stream-of-consciousness discussions but firming him up with practice and going over some talking points is appropriate and won’t make him less authentic.

        He also needs to have it explained to him that he needs to not moderate his position on immigration for the general election; immigration is the one the policy issue that makes his supporters forgive whatever other faults he has and it pulls in Rust Belt Democrats (as well as white professionals who are increasingly tired of Asians driving down the wages of the last few jobs that can’t be automated). If anything he should move further right on immigration by backing cuts in legal to no more than 100 thousand green cards (at most) a year.

        The Undiscovered Jew

        March 6, 2016 at 7:35 pm

  2. Trump victories might be tight for a while. Here’s what the schedule looks like:

    3/6: Puerto Rico [Trump won’t win, probably Rubio gets it]

    3/8: Hawaii [Trump won’t win this either. Kasich breakthrough?]
    3/8: Idaho [Cruz for sure]
    3/8: Michigan [Trump had been leading, but latest polling suggests Kasich is moving ahead]
    3/8: Mississippi [Trump victory]

    3/12: Washington DC [Little Marco]
    3/12: Guam [???? See no reason why it’d be Trump]

    Then 5 states and a territory vote on March 15. Includes Florida and Ohio.

    So in the next 7 contests, Trump seems guaranteed to win only one, and it’s highly probable he’ll lose at least five. And that’s coming on top of his upset loss in Maine, his narrower-than-expected victories in Louisiana and Kentucky, and his 20+ point thrashing in Kansas. He’s looking damaged and the news for the next week is going to re-enforce that.

    What can he do to shift the momentum? The next debate is March 10 in Miami, but the last two debates have weakened Trump. If we’re lucky the establishment guys will selfishly gang up on Cruz.


    March 6, 2016 at 2:09 am

    • Meh. No consensus anti-Trump in sight. Kasich, Rubio, Cruz continue to split the anti-Trump vote. Trump only needs a plurality. RNC self-immolates if they try to throw the nomination to someone with less delegates.


      March 6, 2016 at 4:34 am

    • Maine was a token victory with a smallish number of delegates. Cruz may have “won” it but his delegate advantage was only 3. While Puerto Rico, Guam, DC and Hawaii have a smallish number of delegates they add up. But I don’t expect anyone will be persuaded by what happens at any of them. I don’t even consider those people real Americans. And I’m including DC and Hawaii in that.

      Even if Kasich eventually pulled ahead in Michigan he can’t win the nomination. And a third place finish doesn’t do much to help Cruz who’s the only real challenger. My only concern is that Cruz and Kasich could pilfer enough votes from Trump to force a brokered convention. That’s why I wonder whether some of the TruCon pundits pushing Cruz are on the establishment payroll. They seem more interested in stopping Trump than stopping the establishment. They have to know the most likely outcome of their actions is a brokered convention even if most of their listeners don’t. Conservative Inc is just another wing of the establishment.


      March 6, 2016 at 8:22 am

  3. OT: Has the establishment gotten its hooks into CPAC?


    March 6, 2016 at 7:34 am

  4. OT: NYT, 03/04/16 – Rupert Murdoch and Jerry Hall Marry in London

    Rupert Murdoch, the executive chairman of News Corporation, and the former model Jerry Hall were married on Friday at a centuries-old mansion in central London, weeks after announcing their engagement.

    Mr. Murdoch, 84, and Ms. Hall, 59, were photographed leaving Spencer House after the ceremony…It is the fourth marriage for Mr. Murdoch and the second for Ms. Hall…Ms. Hall’s marriage in Bali to the singer Mick Jagger of the Rolling Stones was annulled in 1999.

    E. Rekshun

    March 6, 2016 at 8:10 am

    • Sadly, she doesn’t look as good now as she did in 1999.

      I hope Murdoch has an airtight pre-nup and will. At that age, he could die any day. I wouldn’t want to see his fortune go to an aging gold-digger instead of his children.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      March 6, 2016 at 9:37 am

  5. It would be great if Kasich won. We need another candidate out there to prevent the anti-trump vote from coalescing around one candidate.

  6. Some good news: CBS just released a new poll on Michigan that shows Trump with a comfortable lead.

    Trump 39%
    Cruz 24%
    Rubio 16%
    Kasich 15%

    This one is more in line with prior polling than the ARG poll that detected a Kasich surge. Michigan’s also an open primary, so the lead over Cruz is securer than in those damn caucus states.


    March 6, 2016 at 11:56 am

  7. And a new NBC/WSJ/Marist poll on Michigan out today that closely matches the CBS one.

    Trump 41%
    Cruz 22%
    Rubio 17%
    Kasich 13%

    ARG looking like a fluke, although both these polls are probably underestimating Cruz’s and Kasich’s support since people seem to be in the middle of abandoning Rubio.


    March 6, 2016 at 12:33 pm

  8. The ARG poll is shit but I think we can expect a couple of things from Michigan.

    1) Trump to underperform his 39% by 1 or 2 points
    2) Cruz to massively over perform his 22%. I see him getting around 35%.

    All in all, another close win for Trump.

    Which is fine. Win MI, win MS and then don’t tank the debate on the 10th like last time and then we put this thing away in FLA on the 15th. Ironically, Kasich might give Trump OH by splitting the anti Trump vote. Even so, for now I’m assuming Kasich wins OH.

    Otis the Sweaty

    March 6, 2016 at 6:29 pm

  9. If Trump becomes president, I am not expecting him to really deport millions of Mexicans, just build a wall and stop any new influx. I would also think he might tackle getting rid of non-Mexicans who came in on a visa and never left. The resistance would be massive, but it would also be nice if he stopped any more Muslims from entering.


    March 7, 2016 at 5:00 am

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