Lion of the Blogosphere

Is Rubio’s support crumbling?

In Super Tuesday primaries, Rubio won 18.7% of the vote in Alabama and 24.9% of the vote in Arkansas. He even got 17.7% of the vote in Texas where Cruz was especially strong because it’s his home state.

Yesterday, Rubio won only 11.2% of the vote in the Louisiana primary. You would expect that Rubio would to as well in Louisiana as he did in nearby Southern states. Is this evidence that Rubio’s support is crumbling? Or is it just a weird Louisiana thing?

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

March 6, 2016 at 9:51 am

Posted in Proles

7 Responses

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  1. Super Tuesday killed Rubio’s credibility as the anti-Trump, so those who are voting with that motivation are lining up behind Cruz.


    March 6, 2016 at 10:01 am

  2. Nate Silver put up the numbers for Louisiana’s early voting and election day voting tallies.

    Early voters:
    Trump 46.7%
    Cruz 22.9%
    Rubio 20.1%
    Kasich 3.1%

    Election day voters:
    Cruz 40.9%
    Trump 40.5%
    Rubio 9.4%
    Kasich 6.8%

    Note that the early voting was consistent with Rubio’s Super Tuesday support. People gave up on him.


    March 6, 2016 at 10:23 am

  3. His standup comedy act turned people off. Maybe his PC posturing did too.


    March 6, 2016 at 12:22 pm

  4. Rubio’s main product differentiator was that he was a latino Obama. Once he starts doing stand up comedy and using Trump’s carnival barker style, (a) it looks really weird and unpresidential to older “adult” voters and (b) appeals only to “prole” voters as you call them, which would never leave Trump for a guy like Rubio anyway.

    Whoever told Rubio to start doing that little hands stuff should be fired. Probably gamma Dan Penishead. All the same, he was never going to win even using his old strat too.

    The Philosopher

    March 6, 2016 at 12:37 pm

  5. What will happen if Rubio drops out? My first instinct was that it would be bad for Trump, since most of Rubio’s supporters would defect to Cruz, who then gains momentum.

    Trump has said he wants to face Cruz one-on-one (probably because he doesn’t like getting double-teamed in the debates). I think the conventional wisdom is (or has become) correct: a two-man race hurts Trump.

    Someone in an earlier thread reported huge swings in the polls after the latest round of attacks; he also claimed absentee ballots broke overwhelmingly for Trump, but that support was off in the people who voted in person.

    Finally, Nancy Freaking Reagan just died, so people will (even more than usual) ramp up the “win one for the Gipper” nonsense.


    March 6, 2016 at 1:54 pm

  6. LA has always rewarded authentic people even if they were scoundrels. Massive fakes like Rubio, not so much.


    March 6, 2016 at 2:11 pm

    • Very true. Especially if they are scoundrels even.

      Sagi Is My Guru

      March 6, 2016 at 4:07 pm

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