How does one become a delegate for Trump?
While some of them are selected by Trump himself and will presumably be loyal to him, other delegates are selected by local Republican Party bigwigs and merely bound to vote for Trump in the first round of voting. We can be certain that the vast majority of bigwig-selected delegates will NOT vote for Trump in a second round of voting.
This is why, if Trump falls even one vote short of a majority of delegates, it’s very likely that Cruz will win the nomination instead.
The GOPe themselves don’t even have to play an active role in endorsing anyone. They just let the chips fall where they naturally fall and Trump loses. That allows the GOPe to look fair and balanced, and they still get their wish of destroying Trump.
If the nominee were being decided by Republican Senators, Cruz would get zero votes. But the local Republicans don’t personally know Cruz. They are more likely to be TrueCon anti-abortion anti-IRS types. They will like Cruz, and assuming he’s still in second place, he would be an easy choice for them.
Cruz will surely lose to Hillary. Trump supporters will be pissed and will be less likely to vote. Even if Trump had not been running and Cruz won naturally, Hillary would be heavily favored to beat him because Cruz will be seen as too divisive and extreme. Remember that Cruz believes that even women who were raped should not be allowed to have an abortion, an opinion shared by only 11% of white American voters. He will get slammed with that. (And it’s my own personal opinion that women should most certainly be allowed to abort the demon-spawn of their rapist if they want to.) And then, the idea of abolishing the IRS is insanely stupid. The same corporate type of Republicans who people assume would vote for Hillary instead of Trump would also vote for Hillary instead of Cruz. Remember that rich corporate Republicans are doing very well with the status quo, they don’t want any sort of radical change. They just wanted someone like Jeb Bush who would govern domestically much like Obama except he’d support lowering their capital gains and estate taxes, allowing them to become even richer, in return for the favor of all the money they donated to him.
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Based on this new poll, it looks likely that Rubio will drop out after he loses Florida, leaving only Kasich and Romney as more moderate alternatives to Cruz.