Lion of the Blogosphere

How does one become a delegate for Trump?

While some of them are selected by Trump himself and will presumably be loyal to him, other delegates are selected by local Republican Party bigwigs and merely bound to vote for Trump in the first round of voting. We can be certain that the vast majority of bigwig-selected delegates will NOT vote for Trump in a second round of voting.

This is why, if Trump falls even one vote short of a majority of delegates, it’s very likely that Cruz will win the nomination instead.

The GOPe themselves don’t even have to play an active role in endorsing anyone. They just let the chips fall where they naturally fall and Trump loses. That allows the GOPe to look fair and balanced, and they still get their wish of destroying Trump.

If the nominee were being decided by Republican Senators, Cruz would get zero votes. But the local Republicans don’t personally know Cruz. They are more likely to be TrueCon anti-abortion anti-IRS types. They will like Cruz, and assuming he’s still in second place, he would be an easy choice for them.

Cruz will surely lose to Hillary. Trump supporters will be pissed and will be less likely to vote. Even if Trump had not been running and Cruz won naturally, Hillary would be heavily favored to beat him because Cruz will be seen as too divisive and extreme. Remember that Cruz believes that even women who were raped should not be allowed to have an abortion, an opinion shared by only 11% of white American voters. He will get slammed with that. (And it’s my own personal opinion that women should most certainly be allowed to abort the demon-spawn of their rapist if they want to.) And then, the idea of abolishing the IRS is insanely stupid. The same corporate type of Republicans who people assume would vote for Hillary instead of Trump would also vote for Hillary instead of Cruz. Remember that rich corporate Republicans are doing very well with the status quo, they don’t want any sort of radical change. They just wanted someone like Jeb Bush who would govern domestically much like Obama except he’d support lowering their capital gains and estate taxes, allowing them to become even richer, in return for the favor of all the money they donated to him.

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Based on this new poll, it looks likely that Rubio will drop out after he loses Florida, leaving only Kasich and Romney as more moderate alternatives to Cruz.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

March 8, 2016 at 12:25 pm

Posted in Politics

23 Responses

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  1. Cruz should put all his media money in California and promise Latinos that all welfare spending will be shifted from blacks to them. Once he has those 55 EV’s, who knows?

    Department 11

    March 8, 2016 at 12:42 pm

    • A president doesn’t have the power to simply choose who gets welfare money.

      Great Again

      March 8, 2016 at 1:12 pm

      • I’m not sure that’s a relevant detail when it comes to promising poor people free stuff.

        Mike Street Station

        March 9, 2016 at 7:18 am

  2. If Trump shows up at the convention with, say, 1200 delegates and the next highest guy is Cruz with 800, I don’t think the Establishment will give the nomination to Cruz. They’ll know that it will result in a complete mutiny of the base, no chance of the Presidency, and a probable loss of the House and Senate as the rank and file stay home. It’s one thing if the count is 1100 to 1000. It’s another thing entirely if Trump has a massive lead. I think even Cruz himself wouldn’t stand for the party stealing Trump’s nomination like that.

    I think the probable scenario goes like this: Trump wins Michigan, Illinois, Ohio and Florida, at which point it becomes impossible for Cruz to ever catch Trump, much less get to 1237 delegates. Cruz and Trump both recognize this reality and have a meeting where they agree that the real enemy is the Establishment. Cruz throws his support to Trump in exchange for the VP.

    If Trump ends up losing Florida and/or Ohio, then things get dicey. Cruz will have reason to believe that he can catch Trump, or at least get close enough to make a Convention floor fight justifiable.

    Great Again

    March 8, 2016 at 1:11 pm

    • It’s up to the delegates, not the establishment.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      March 8, 2016 at 2:23 pm

      • But if Trump and Cruz work together, they can ensure that Trump gets to 1237 and bypass the whole Convention process.

        Great Again

        March 8, 2016 at 3:35 pm

  3. The GOPe wants the non-Trumps to each support the non-Trump with the best chance of defeating Trump in each state with their aim being a contested convention. Romney stated this ploy explicitly. Then they want to give the nomination to Rubio, Kasich, or Romney. It’s therefore satisfying to see the Romney types squirm after Cruz made it clear he was going to campaign in Florida to take out Rubio, even though he obviously knows he can’t win there. The GOPe prefers Cruz over Trump because he poses less threat to their power, but Cruz is smart enough to know he will not get their support.

    If they try to steal the nomination at the convention there would be a revolt. There’s no way that Trump voters would rally around the establishment’s choice, no matter who it ism and it will only further polarize the GOP base with the GOPe. The whole delegate system is flawed.

    Steven J.

    March 8, 2016 at 1:12 pm

  4. Does anyone actually believe Cruz could abolish the IRS if he tried?


    March 8, 2016 at 1:28 pm

    • Its a stupid pledge. He has to talk Congress into it, and who is going to collect taxes.

      The only way to do it is for the government to rely exclusively on external revenue (tariffs) like it did in the nineteenth century, and Cruz also opposes those. There are some quack theories that the government could just print or borrow all the money it needs and not tax anyone, but any presidential candidate who espoused that really should be disqualified from high office.


      March 8, 2016 at 5:37 pm

  5. “This is why, if Trump falls even one vote short of a majority of delegates, it’s very likely that Cruz will win the nomination instead.”

    Or GOP-E will force those delegates to nominate Romney. It’s not inconceivable. He might actually beat Hillary.

    Cruz is so repellent that he makes Hillary seem charming by comparison. I know that most of the guys in the alt-right world hate her so much they can’t see straight, but she knows how to turn on a form of charm when she chooses to. I’ve seen it in person.


    March 8, 2016 at 1:45 pm

  6. If the GOPe screws Trump, they can kiss a lot of voters goodbye FOREVER.

    Including me!

    But since I am exactly the kind of person they hate, they probably don’t care.


    March 8, 2016 at 1:47 pm

    • You say that, but if in 2020 they nominated Dave Brat running on an anti immigrant platform, you’d vote for him.

      Meanwhile, you would never vote for open borders Rubio even if he won fair and square so the GOPe really has nothing to lose by pissing you off.

      Otis the Sweaty

      March 8, 2016 at 3:17 pm

      • After four years of Hillary, I simply won’t care who is president any more.


        March 9, 2016 at 10:20 am

  7. Romney’s campaign lawyer pointed this out on MSNBC on the night of “Super Tuesday”. Most delegates are really party hacks, appointed by other party hacks. The primary system means that for the first vote on the Presidential nominee, they have to vote as directed by state laws/ rules, eg who they are “pledged” for. They can vote for anyone on the other rounds, and they are not bound on votes on rules.

    Its important to remember that the rules have been set up to make it seem like the Democrats and Republicans are nominating their candidates through the will of ordinary voters, but in reality in both parties the bosses have the ability to bring the smoke filled room back if the voters don’t vote who they are told too.

    The twentieth century reform movements lost. All they got was the drapes changed.

    So the GOPe can stop Trump at the convention. I agree that Cruz really doesn’t have a realistic shot at getting a majority of the delegates himself, unlike with Dubya, who also came from a privileged Northeastern background transplanted to Texas, his shtick is just too overboard on appealing to evangelicals and southern and plains state voters. But they have a shot at Cruz plus Kasich and Rubio getting a majority of the delegates combined on the first ballot, which would be all that is needed. It would be essential for Kasich to win Ohio outright, and really useful if Rubio wins Florida. Both these winner take all states have become really crucial. They have a tactical problem in whether it would be better to have Rubio drop out (but not release his delegates) and coalesce around Cruz in Florida, or to try to convince Cruz to stay clear of Florida. I think the second tactic is better for the GOPe, but Cruz may not want to play ball at this point.

    If they get their brokered convention, expect the nominee to be someone not in the race at all, most likely Romney. In fact, there is a 50-50 chance that the Republican nominee is someone who has not run in a single primary, due to the “stop Trump at the convention” strategy actually working, and a 50-50 chance that the Democratic nominee being someone other than Clinton or Sanders, due to Clinton having to drop out due to health problems or legal problems (Sanders is in a similar position to Cruz, in that he is winning lots of states but has no chance of being nominated). I am half-rooting for this because it would educate Americans on how the system really works.


    March 8, 2016 at 1:51 pm

    • “due to Clinton having to drop out due to health problems or legal problems”

      LOL. Conrad Black suggested this in an op-ed. Her poor health is certainly convenient. She would drop out for health reasons as a result of Obama forcing her on the emails issue. Obama is certainly nasty enough, Black said. I totally agree.

      One of his qualities that has gone completely unnoticed in the lying MSM is his sheer malicious glee at f’ing up his enemies, and frenemies.


      March 8, 2016 at 8:23 pm

  8. Are you trying to see if Trump’s people read this so you can become one, Lion?


    March 8, 2016 at 2:01 pm

    • I would gladly be a Trump delegate, but I am sure he has his people already picked.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      March 8, 2016 at 2:27 pm

      • My GOP convention experience has been representing other states, but I am from NY myself. Years ago New York had a direct delegate primary. That is, the names of the individuals running for delegate positions were listed on the ballot, and voters chose them without knowing such delegate candidates’ presidential preferences. During that period either the positions were not contested (most likely) or else those who got to go were party insiders.

        Starting in 1976 as a result of a court case, the delegate candidates’ presidential preferences were listed on the ballot themselves. Later on (although I can’t recall when), the state adopted a presidential preference primary (“beauty contest”) as well, in addition to direct delegate election.

        Subsequent court cases have established the right of parties to conduct their primaries (at least for such party positions and not party nominations for public offices) according to their own rules, so what we’ve got coming up in New York on April 19 works like this:

        Democrats will still have a delegate primary and beauty contest, with delegate candidates’ names and presidential candidates they support still on the ballot. Delegates will be elected by congressional district, with same number of designating petition signatures (1250) required as if running for Congress.

        Republicans will have ONLY the beauty contest, but each presidential candidate will file a slate of delegates for each congressional district with the GOP state committee. Delegates will be elected based on the outcome of the beauty contest in each district. The GOP process is a lot more streamlined and helps avoid voter confusion. The remaining at-large delegates will be chosen at a subsequent meeting of the Republican State Committee.

        If you want to be a delegate for Trump, I’d contact the campaign, but at this point they probably have their full slate selected.


        March 16, 2016 at 6:20 pm

  9. Trump hasn’t shown the ability to sand off the rough edges – something he needs to do as we get closer to the general. At the same time, he has to stay on message about trade/jobs and immigration/security. And he needs some horrible luck – think terror attacks to scare voters into remembering that his stance on Muslim immigration is sane.

    So I don’t think he’s going to win enough delegates before the convention.

    But I don’t think the establishment will promote Cruz over Trump. 1) They really hate Cruz. 2) Trump will have just beaten the guy head-to-head. The GOPe would risk every single Trump voter sitting this one out. It’s too dumb, even for them.

    That’s why they’ll pick Christie. The GOPe likes him more than Cruz. And they can make the case to Trump voters that he’s “one of them” because of Christie’s early endorsement of Trump.


    March 8, 2016 at 2:14 pm

  10. If they know what’s good for them, yes, they’ll pick Christie. As you note, he is almost uniquely non-divisive.

    But if they knew what was good for them; if they knew how to shear the sheep, instead of skinning it; they wouldn’t have gotten into their current predicament. So, who knows what’ll actually happen.


    March 8, 2016 at 3:05 pm

    • That’s the thing, they don’t know what’s good for them. They really are as clueless as they seem.

      They probably will go with Rubio with somebody like Ben Sasse as the VP. You would think that they would make Cruz the VP to mollify Cruz’s people but they are likely too stupid to do so.

      Otis the Sweaty

      March 8, 2016 at 3:49 pm

  11. […] the unbound delegates vote for him. He would certainly win on the second round of voting. (See my previous post explaining that a significant percentage Trump’s delegates are not actually Trump supporters, […]

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