Lion of the Blogosphere

Kasich pulls ahead of Rubio in NBC/WSJ poll

Link to article about poll.

Trump 30%
Cruz 27%
Kasich 22%
Rubio 20%

I’ve been predicting for a week that Kasich was going to pull ahead of Rubio and become the favored establishment candidate.

Finally, we see my prediction bearing fruit.

And obviously, the poll, if true, is really bad news for Trump.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

March 8, 2016 at 6:34 pm

Posted in Politics

17 Responses

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  1. Kasich voters hate Cruz. Not sure how this is bad for Trump. Why would Kasich drop out now?

    Rubio, however, is def out after FLA. He’s done.

    Have you guys seen the “Conservative Pundit” twitter:

    Otis the Sweaty

    March 8, 2016 at 6:39 pm

    • If Trump goes into the convention without a majority of the delegates, they will steal it from him, guaranteed.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      March 8, 2016 at 6:44 pm

      • Agreed. Kasich is basically the guaranteed VP at this point. They’ll put all of their money into Kasich at this point. I still think he wins Ohio.


        March 8, 2016 at 6:50 pm

      • That might actually be better for us in the long run, first of all. Hillary is a 1 termer and we can nominate somebody anti immigrant in 2020.

        2nd of all, I don’t believe they will steal the nom from Trump if he clearly has the most delegates because it would be down ballot carnage.

        3rd of all, Kasich staying in actually makes Trump more likely to get to 1237 because it guarantees him victory in every WTA state outside of OH.

        Otis the Sweaty

        March 8, 2016 at 6:54 pm

      • A liberal Supreme Court will say that any immigration restrictions are unconstitutional. Once Hillary wins, game over.

        Even the conservative Supreme Court said that Arizona wasn’t allowed to enforce federal immigration laws because it violated Obama’s exeuctive orders.

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        March 8, 2016 at 7:04 pm

      • Agreed. Kasich is basically the guaranteed VP at this point.

        Why waste the VP slot on Kasich when the stupid bastard would be giddy over Post Office General?

        Offer Cruz Veep to drop out after Florida.

        The Undiscovered Jew

        March 8, 2016 at 7:10 pm

      • Trump can make a deal with Kasich. If Kasich wins Ohio, he’ll have 66 delegates that are absolutely loyal from his home state that will obey him even if unbound. Then Kasich can release his delegates on the first ballot and order them to vote Trump while Trump’s bound delegates are still locked in.

        Of course, if Trump wins OH, Kasich won’t have the delegates but then Trump won’t need them as he will be well on the way to a majority.

        Usually delegates won’t follow an endorsement once unbound. A competitive candidate can unbind them by endorsing Trump but then the GOPe has Washington jobs to offer to delegates but promises to blacklist them forever if they vote Trump so they won’t follow a Trump endorsement. Kasich, on the other hand, is governor and party leader in OH so his delegates will all owe him their jobs and their future so they will obey. That way if Trump is within 66, Kasich could push him over the line for veep. A few more Kasich choices will probably also be loyalists in the states where you can hand pick people, so probably he will command a dozen more by the end.

        So Trump doesn’t really need to meet 1,237. Maybe as little as 1,150 is enough.

        Cruz could make a deal on the first ballot also, but Cruz’s delegates won’t be as loyal. Some of them will be Cruz true believers, though, so maybe Cruz can probably move one or two hundred of them reliably to Trump. I figure Cruz will have about 500-1000 delegates in the end if Trump is short and 10-30% will be reliable faithful delegates that would follow him to Trump.

        There are problems with bringing Cruz on the ticket. There’s personal animosity and eligibility, but that can all be smoothed over. The real problem is that Cruz looks like a liability on the ticket. You’d much rather have Kasich or Senator Scott (R-SC, Rubio supporter so he can add establishment unity) or Christie. But if Trump ends up with 1,050 delegates, he’ll need to make a deal with someone who can deliver the difference on the first ballot.


        March 8, 2016 at 10:24 pm

      • The delegates are only bound to vote for their own candidate, one time. They can’t be assigned to vote for someone else.

      • “The delegates are only bound to vote for their own candidate, one time. They can’t be assigned to vote for someone else.”

        I explained how Kasich’s Ohio delegates can be made to vote however he wants. They owe him their jobs. Once a candidate unbinds delegates, they go ultra-establishment, unless you have something big to offer them. Kasich can unbind his before the first ballot and send them where he wants. So Kaish can make a deal. Other candidates mostly can’t.


        March 9, 2016 at 12:55 am

      • Depends on how the delegates are picked. For the most part, they do NOT owe their jobs to Kasich, the Ohio Party is separate from the governor, and mostly the delegates are not even elected politicans, they are people with day jobs who are active in the Republican Party. Now I agree that SOME of them would be influenced by Kasich’s recommendation, but no where near 100%.

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        March 9, 2016 at 9:19 am

  2. And an anti immigrant pres can just ignore the Supreme Court. The Supreme Court’s power comes from a time when both parties agreed on the rules of the game. In our increasingly polarized country the Supreme Court is about to make itself irrelevant.

    Otis the Sweaty

    March 8, 2016 at 7:38 pm

  3. This poll can be seen as good news for Trump. Trump is up 4 and Cruz down 1 from the last WSJ bs national poll from before South Carolina.

    Andrew E.

    March 8, 2016 at 8:00 pm

    • Exactly. Trump commented on this in his own twit feed.


      March 8, 2016 at 9:07 pm

  4. So do you now think that Trump has a ceiling?

    Lloyd Llewellyn

    March 8, 2016 at 8:09 pm

  5. National polls are irrelevant. It’s a state-by-state thing.

    What’s undeniable at this point is that Trump has a ceiling. Even if he wins Ohio and Florida, unless he can start pulling in majority-vote victories he’s doomed.


    March 9, 2016 at 2:02 am

  6. This poll is complete BS. BUT, if it were true it would be bad news for the establishment to have the three losers bunched so closely like that. The anti-Establishment and anti-Trump vote is split three ways. In a four man race Trump dominates because he is pretty consistently between 35-45% and if the other three are as close as this poll that means they are varying between 15%-25% which means Trump wins pretty much every time.

    Haven Monahan

    March 9, 2016 at 6:34 am

  7. I’m not sure why you would put any stock in an NBC/WSJ poll. Look how badly wrong they’ve been this political season. Particularly when it comes from two institutions that hate Trump.

    Mike Street Station

    March 9, 2016 at 7:50 am

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