Lion of the Blogosphere

Tuesday elections post

My Twitter feed will have any thoughts that take up fewer than 140 characters.

9:02 PM: So far my predictions have proven accurate. Trump is projected the winner in Mississippi based on his massive lead in exit polls. Trump is comfortably ahead of second-place Kasich.

My prediction that Rubio is collapsing and Kasich is rising has also proven true. Rubio is definitely in fourth place in Michigan and it’s going to be very close for third-fourth in Missippi. He will get zero delegates in each of these two states.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

March 8, 2016 at 8:07 pm

Posted in Politics

47 Responses

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  1. Is Missouri a Cruz state or a Trump state?

    Otis the Sweaty

    March 8, 2016 at 8:16 pm

    • Missouri is too close to call.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      March 8, 2016 at 8:26 pm

      • Santorum almost beat Romney there in 2012.

        The same Evangelicals who saw Catholic Santorum as closer to their faith than Romney will see Cruz as more of a kindred spirit than 3x married Trump. They also want a candidate who is unequivocally pro-Netanyahu. Trump’s suggestions of neutrality hurt him there.

        Trump can do well in Evangelical states IF they have high diversity or a strong legacy of manufacturing. There’s not enough of either in Missouri to help him win.

        Fiddlesticks

        March 9, 2016 at 1:47 am

  2. Michigan with 18% in

    trump 37.1%
    kasich 30.7%
    cruz 20.1%

    Off to gym, extra reps for Trump!

    Yakov

    March 8, 2016 at 8:34 pm

  3. big wins tonight. Does Rubio drop out now? Problem with him staying in until FLA means that he risks costing Kasich OH.

    Otis the Sweaty

    March 8, 2016 at 8:38 pm

  4. I’m as interested in the Democratic side. Michigan is neck & neck! Would be wonderful if she lost.

    gothamette

    March 8, 2016 at 8:57 pm

  5. At RedState they are accepting that the dream of stopping Trump is dead. Trump merely needs to hold his own in the next debate and then win FLA and he’s got this.

    Otis the Sweaty

    March 8, 2016 at 9:00 pm

    • Forget Florida. After tonight’s lousy performance by foamboy Rubio, Trump is a lock there. Trump should go for the knockout against Kasich in Ohio, which, like Florida, is winner take all. If he wins Kasich’s home state, Trump sweeps the rest of the Rust Belt.

      The Undiscovered Jew

      March 8, 2016 at 9:13 pm

      • At Reddit, the proper spelling is “foamboi.”

        If the percentages in MI hold up, I call this a smashing victory. No, he didn’t break 50% but he was up against a solid Midwesterner (“the only adult in the room”), and Midwesterners are very provincial. For Trump to win there is a true moral victory. The message is getting out past the media fog.

        And then there’s Sanders. He’s beating her in MI – except of course in Wayne County. Her black firewall is impregnable. Lion, I wish you would write about how honest reporters have been about the racial aspects of Hillary’s victories. I think that Trump has kicked away the prudish taboo of addressing this.

        That to me is Trump’s biggest contribution to our society. His honesty has been a breath of fresh air.

        gothamette

        March 8, 2016 at 10:12 pm

      • Unfortunately Trump’s moral victory in MI won’t be a winner take all, b/c he didn’t break 50%. Damn.

        gothamette

        March 8, 2016 at 10:26 pm

      • That to me is Trump’s biggest contribution to our society. His honesty has been a breath of fresh air.

        http://www.phoenixism.net/?p=20238

        Rifleman

        March 9, 2016 at 9:40 am

      • Lion, I wish you would write about how honest reporters have been about the racial aspects of Hillary’s victories.

        Trump’s surrogate on CNN was the only guy tonight to make argument that black voters in north are less supportive of Hillary than in south..

        Rifleman

        March 9, 2016 at 9:42 am

      • Maybe because the black churches are less powerful in the north?

  6. Looks like the RCP poll average of Michigan nailed the actual vote.

    ,

    The Undiscovered Jew

    March 8, 2016 at 9:00 pm

  7. Now Trump is talking about coming in legally again and being fair. I don’t know what that means. Maybe he’s starting to campaign for the general.

    I guess it’s better than nothing.

    ttgy

    March 8, 2016 at 9:23 pm

    • It’s consistent with what I said about him after the last debate. He hates unlawfulness, but he has a big-business view of legal immigratns.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      March 8, 2016 at 9:26 pm

      • But that big business view is going to cost him OH.

        Otis the Sweaty

        March 8, 2016 at 9:34 pm

      • I don’t believe that Sessions has a big business view of legal immigration. It will be interesting to see how much influence Sessions actually has with Trump.

        Lewis Medlock

        March 9, 2016 at 10:29 am

    • I don’t know why people suggest that squishing on immigration is campaigning for the general. Democrats and independents prefer Trump’s immigration policy (as described on the website) just as much as Republicans do.

      There are issues where you can gain by moving to the center like abortion, taxes, and social programs. Immigration is the other kind of policy where the further you move toward Washington the less the American people like you, including in the opposite party.

      So softening on immigration is not strategic. Trump has always been saying that he’s going to welcome legal immigration including from Mexico. He’s always wanted to keep H2 visas (tons of Mexican H2-As along with Trump’s resorts east European H2-Bs) and only to limit abuse H1 visas without cutting them much. And Trump isn’t going to block family reunification green cards for kids and spouses; he may slow down sibling and parent green cards by enforcing quotas.

      The only thing Trump is really strong on is illegal immigration and Moslem Mideast immigration. Those are a blessing.

      owentt

      March 8, 2016 at 10:04 pm

      • is he actually softening on immigration? he came out with this earlier

        http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2016/03/07/3250381/

        james n.s.w

        March 8, 2016 at 10:42 pm

      • Trump has started to talk about limiting legal immigration, just has his immigration plan says.

        http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2016/03/07/donald-trump-says-massive-legal-migration-eroding-middle-class/

        Andrew E.

        March 8, 2016 at 10:45 pm

      • Sessions will school him. And it’s up to US to follow up and destroy H1B. H1B is evil.

        http://www.thesocialcontract.com/artman2/publish/tsc1503/article_1312.shtml

        READ THE WHOLE THING.

        Bernie is still beating Hillary everywhere except you know where. This could not be better. If I didn’t already know that GOP-E is made up of retards I’d think they scripted it. Where will all those Berniebros go when she gets the nom?

        gothamette

        March 8, 2016 at 10:54 pm

      • It’s a disgrace that foreign students are being let into US colleges, especially state schools. No foreign student should be let into a state school.

        Why do we ven have to let foreign students into private schools? We could ban that too.

        The Mexican guy on Univision went to UCLA and now he is out to destroy the US. We let him into this country and gave him a spot at UCLA over an American. It’s mind boggling.

        ttgy

        March 8, 2016 at 11:14 pm

      • They are being ripped off on worthless education, making American institution’s rich. Don’t complain about it. It’s one of our only good exports.

      • Interesting wall of text…paragraphs would have helped.-

        Mrs Stitch

        March 8, 2016 at 11:15 pm

      • I think they assume that Trump knows what he is doing like some kind of a Jedi master of politics. He doesn’t. His double 180 on H1B’s was idiotic.

        He just lucked out because his unpolished unprofessional campaigning plus his un-PC statements plus his long held protectionist views plus a huge GOP field worked out so far. Also proles like when he says stupid, off script things because it shows he’s not well managed. It feels more authentic.

        I used to buy into the “master persuader” story but when you’re winning people assume you’re smarter than you really are. The bottom line is that there is no way Trump gets elected with such high unfavorability ratings.

        mvetsel

        March 8, 2016 at 11:21 pm

      • “They are being ripped off on worthless education, making American institution’s rich. Don’t complain about it. It’s one of our only good exports.”

        Totally off the wall here. Foreign students dominate our STEM departments. Please read the link I so kindly provided.

        ” Caltech Vice Provost David Goodstein summarized the problem in a 1993 American Scholar article “The American taxpayer (both state and federal) is supporting extremely expensive research universities whose main educational purpose is to train students from abroad. When these students finish their educations, they either stay here, taking relatively high-paying jobs that could have gone to Americans, or they go home, taking our knowledge and our technology with them…. Congress and the public doesn’t seem to have noticed that, while largely ignoring our own students, we are putting our money and our best talent into training our economic competitors. Just wait until this one hits the fan.”

        gothamette

        March 8, 2016 at 11:21 pm

      • “They are being ripped off on worthless education, making American institution’s rich. Don’t complain about it. It’s one of our only good exports”

        True,It is a waste for most people, but It just bothers me that they get to come here and many stay.

        ttgy

        March 8, 2016 at 11:42 pm

      • Where will all those Berniebros go when she gets the nom?

        They will vote for Bernie as Hillary’s VP.

        They are activists so they can’t simply NOT vote.

        And as Good White Progressives they MUST vote against Evil White Racist Xenophobic White America’s Hate Leader Trump!!

        The entire identity of White Liberal leftists is built around feeling disgusted by the Wrong Kind of White People and their preferences and lifestyles.

        Check out Bernie’s speech here:

        ““So, let me tell you, let me tell you—what some of the media may not know is that is in almost all of the national polls, we beat Donald Trump and beat him by big digits. And we beat him. Almost always, not always, almost always do better than Secretary Clinton against him. And it is not only national polls, it is statewide polls, battleground polls. To give you an example—a poll just came out the other day in Michigan, a battleground state. Secretary Clinton was beating him by 16 points. We were beating him by 22 points. In New Hampshire, another battleground poll, we were beating him by 19 points. But it is not just polls. Polls go up and down. I’ll tell you why together, if Trump is their nominee, why we will defeat him, and that is because the American people do not want a president who insults Mexicans and Latin Americans.”

        “The American people do not want a president who insults Muslims,” Sanders continued.

        “The American people do not want a president who insults women, who insults African-Americans. Remember, don’t—please, when you think about Trump, please do not forget that this was a guy who was one of the leaders in this so-called birther effort—remember that—and that was an intentional effort to de-legitimize the president because he was black. It is a funny thing, a funny thing, President Obama’s father was born in Kenya, my father was born in Poland, but nobody has asked me for my birth certificate. Maybe it has something to do with the color of my skin. I don’t know.

        We will defeat Mr. Trump because the American people know that coming together trumps divisiveness. The American people know that community helping each other, supporting each other trumps selfishness. And most importantly, the American people understand that love trumps hatred.”

        Rifleman

        March 8, 2016 at 11:48 pm

      • Not getting into an argument about Hillary’s VP here. I think you are dead wrong but we’ll have to wait & see.

        20ish people are very emotional and unpredictable. I think we have a good chance at skimming some Berniebros.

        gothamette

        March 9, 2016 at 7:39 am

      • I expect Trump, when elected president, will get tougher, not softer, on legal immigration.

        silberstreak

        March 9, 2016 at 9:27 am

      • Not getting into an argument about Hillary’s VP here. I think you are dead wrong but we’ll have to wait & see.

        How can she not pick Bernie as VP? After all the motivation and support he has developed? He just beat her in Michigan. She’s just going to kick him to the curb and pick some nonentity?

        20ish people are very emotional and unpredictable. I think we have a good chance at skimming some Berniebros.

        Yes they are emotional. Did you read the Bernie transcript above? What makes them more emotional than hating White racist bigots, rednecks, Islamophobes and people who persecute and hate “undocumented children”??

        Trump is HITLER for godsake!!!

        Rifleman

        March 9, 2016 at 11:16 am

  8. It’s consistent with what I said about him after the last debate. He hates unlawfulness, but he has a big-business view of legal immigrants.

    What if he puts Kris Kobach in at INS and has Sessions as his point man in the Senate?

    What matters are actual policy and law and enforcement. Trump rambling is what he does. He’s not a lawyer. His words are not always very precise.

    Rifleman

    March 8, 2016 at 10:08 pm

    • Exactly right.

      Andrew E.

      March 8, 2016 at 10:46 pm

    • Right, Trump is not running for the office of Debater-in Chief, and talk is cheap.

      silberstreak

      March 9, 2016 at 9:20 am

  9. The only reason Trump brought up the steaks and everything is because he was bashed by Romney and the others for it. So he’s just shoving it down their throat.

    ttgy

    March 8, 2016 at 10:19 pm

  10. Does anybody know what the reporter named Jeremy asked Trump that he got so upset about? It was something about pc language.

    ttgy

    March 8, 2016 at 10:45 pm

  11. Stupid Christians/Mormons killing us in the Midwest. Do they have any other states besides UT?

    Otis the Sweaty

    March 8, 2016 at 11:25 pm

  12. Feeling the Marcofizzle.

    Curle

    March 8, 2016 at 11:53 pm

  13. I like your painting.

    jef

    March 8, 2016 at 11:54 pm

  14. looking at the map, Cruz should have WA, UT, OR, MT, ND, SD, IN, NM and NE for sure. Kasich takes OH and DC.

    All Trump has for sure is FLA, AZ, PA, NY, NJ, RI, CT, VT and WV. Hmm. Things don’t look that rosy right now. If he can’t win OH and MS, I don’t think he can get to 1237.

    Otis the Sweaty

    March 9, 2016 at 12:32 am

    • Cruz won’t win WA, OR or NM, they are blue states where he doesn’t do well.

      MS is too close to call.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      March 9, 2016 at 9:15 am

  15. Trump did very well. Back in the driver’s seat? If he has many more delegates than any other candidate I don’t think they will steal it from him at the convention.

    Perturabo

    March 9, 2016 at 2:59 am

  16. Lion, by my calculation Trump needs to get 55% of the remaining delegates to cinch the nomination. https://www.google.com/?gws_rd=ssl#q=trump+delegates&eob=m.09c7w0/R/3/short/m.09c7w0/

    Robert

    March 9, 2016 at 5:03 am

  17. Lion, you’d underestimated Trump. I’ve been right so far.

    Yakov

    March 9, 2016 at 6:13 am

  18. I’m starting to sound like Otis. Stupid Mormons stole Idaho from us. Flood the state with illegal aliens and cheap Chinese imports that explode in their hands!

    On the Dem side, the results couldn’t be better for Trump. I can almost not believe my eyes: the most progressive Democrat ever is the candidate of the white rump, and he is being defeated by the candidate of African-Americans. They are the straw that stirs the drink.

    gothamette

    March 9, 2016 at 7:45 am

  19. Idaho was a closed primary. More important than geography is which of the remaining primaries are closed, vs. open. I haven’t seen this tabulated. Going forward, don’t be shocked if Trump sweeps the remaining open primaries, and only loses some, but not all, of the closed primaries. Nevermind east vs, west, and north vs. south…

    Kosher Kowboy

    March 9, 2016 at 9:58 am


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