Tuesday primaries and caucus analysis
Idaho: Even though a recent poll shows that Trump has the lead, we assume that the undecideds are going to flock to Cruz, and Cruz will win.
Michigan: Trump is strong here because it’s the Rust Belt. The race for second place and third place is key. I’ve been waiting for Kasich’s numbers to increase at the expense of Rubio, but such a change was only barely perceptible on Saturday. If Rubio comes in fourth place here, it will look bad for him.
Missippi: This is a Deep South primary, and Trump has swept all of the Deep South states. Expect him to win again. Cruz will come in second; probably a pretty close second. They don’t like Kasich in the Deep South, but look to see if he has a higher percentage of the vote than he did in Louisiana. In the unlikely event that Rubio comes in fourth, everyone will tell him to drop out. But I strongly expect him to come in third here. (If Rubio comes in fourth because his voters went to Cruz, that would be bad for Trump.)
Hawaii caucus: because this is a caucus and not a primary, anything can happen. Were Hawaii having a primary, I would predict Trump the winner. On the other hand, it’s hard to predict which of the other three guys is going to win. Hawaii is a pretty blue state, so that speaks against Cruz. On the other hand, Rubio has been doing so poorly. Kasich is the natural choice for Hawaiians, but because at this point the perception is that he’s someone who doesn’t have a chance of winning, he probably won’t get enough votes to win. And I also think that Kasich does better in primaries than he does in caucuses.
So after all this, I think Cruz is most likely to win. Thus his price of 20 cents on PredictIt is undervalued and a good investment.