Lion of the Blogosphere

Tuesday primaries and caucus analysis

Idaho: Even though a recent poll shows that Trump has the lead, we assume that the undecideds are going to flock to Cruz, and Cruz will win.

Michigan: Trump is strong here because it’s the Rust Belt. The race for second place and third place is key. I’ve been waiting for Kasich’s numbers to increase at the expense of Rubio, but such a change was only barely perceptible on Saturday. If Rubio comes in fourth place here, it will look bad for him.

Missippi: This is a Deep South primary, and Trump has swept all of the Deep South states. Expect him to win again. Cruz will come in second; probably a pretty close second. They don’t like Kasich in the Deep South, but look to see if he has a higher percentage of the vote than he did in Louisiana. In the unlikely event that Rubio comes in fourth, everyone will tell him to drop out. But I strongly expect him to come in third here. (If Rubio comes in fourth because his voters went to Cruz, that would be bad for Trump.)

Hawaii caucus: because this is a caucus and not a primary, anything can happen. Were Hawaii having a primary, I would predict Trump the winner. On the other hand, it’s hard to predict which of the other three guys is going to win. Hawaii is a pretty blue state, so that speaks against Cruz. On the other hand, Rubio has been doing so poorly. Kasich is the natural choice for Hawaiians, but because at this point the perception is that he’s someone who doesn’t have a chance of winning, he probably won’t get enough votes to win. And I also think that Kasich does better in primaries than he does in caucuses.

So after all this, I think Cruz is most likely to win. Thus his price of 20 cents on PredictIt is undervalued and a good investment.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

March 8, 2016 at EDT am

Posted in Politics

6 Responses

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  1. trump just spoke out about legal immigration.

    james n.s.w

    March 8, 2016 at EDT am

    • For or against? Is he ‘softening’ again?


      March 8, 2016 at EDT pm

      • he said it crippled the middle class or something. so against.

        seems like he’s becoming more sophisticated in his arguments.

        james n.s.w

        March 8, 2016 at EDT pm

  2. A shame because it looks like Trump has the best chance of beating Clinton.v

    Still, the model says it is 87 percent certain that Trump will defeat Clinton in November….

    It is possible, of course, that the Republican Party will not nominate Trump as its presidential candidate. If the nomination were to go to Marco Rubio instead the PRIMARY MODEL would predict:

    The model is 86 percent certain that Hillary Clinton will defeat Marco Rubio. Clinton would get 52.4 percent and Rubio 47.6 percent of the two party vote.

    According to the model, Ted Cruz or any other candidate (except Trump) would fare the same way against Clinton.

    In the event that the Democrats nominate Bernie Sanders instead of Hillary Clinton, while the GOP nominates Marco Rubio, the PRIMARY MODEL would predict:

    The model is 89 percent certain that Marco Rubio will defeat Bernie Sanders. Rubio will get 52.8 percent and Sanders 47.2 percent of the two party vote.


    March 8, 2016 at EDT pm

  3. Daniel Larison at TAC is bullish on Trump’s chances today:

    MEH 0910

    March 8, 2016 at EDT pm

  4. I agree with everthing you wrote except Idaho. My guess is Trump wins Idaho because he’s due to win a small Evangelical state from Cruz at some point.

    The Undiscovered Jew

    March 8, 2016 at EDT pm

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