Why I was wrong in predicting Trump would win the nomination
I predicted that Trump would pick up support as the primary season went on, because early victories would give him social proof, and voters like to associate with a winner.
This doesn’t seem to be happening. I blame the massive and unprecedented attempt by the mainstream media and establishment Republicans to malign his character.
In all other primary seasons during my lifetime, what happens is that candidates drop out after they see they no longer have a path to winning a majority of the delegates. They drop out because they don’t want to waste money, and they don’t want to anger the establishment.
If Trump were replaced by Scott Walker, Chris Christie, or any other normal Republican politician, Rubio and Kasich would have dropped out by now, and most of their supporters would vote for the front-runner.
But that’s obviously not going to happen this year. The establishment has clearly let it be known that they want a contested convention, and because in a contested convention anything can happen, no one left in the race has any incentive to drop out. (Although I continue to believe that Rubio will be incentivized to suspend campaigning when he suffers the embarrassment of losing his home state.)
And as I pointed out in my previous post, Trump is guaranteed to lose a contested convention, because a significant chunk of his delegates are are picked by local Republican bigwigs, and they are not loyal to Trump.