Lion of the Blogosphere

Why I was wrong in predicting Trump would win the nomination

I predicted that Trump would pick up support as the primary season went on, because early victories would give him social proof, and voters like to associate with a winner.

This doesn’t seem to be happening. I blame the massive and unprecedented attempt by the mainstream media and establishment Republicans to malign his character.

In all other primary seasons during my lifetime, what happens is that candidates drop out after they see they no longer have a path to winning a majority of the delegates. They drop out because they don’t want to waste money, and they don’t want to anger the establishment.

If Trump were replaced by Scott Walker, Chris Christie, or any other normal Republican politician, Rubio and Kasich would have dropped out by now, and most of their supporters would vote for the front-runner.

But that’s obviously not going to happen this year. The establishment has clearly let it be known that they want a contested convention, and because in a contested convention anything can happen, no one left in the race has any incentive to drop out. (Although I continue to believe that Rubio will be incentivized to suspend campaigning when he suffers the embarrassment of losing his home state.)

And as I pointed out in my previous post, Trump is guaranteed to lose a contested convention, because a significant chunk of his delegates are are picked by local Republican bigwigs, and they are not loyal to Trump.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

March 8, 2016 at 2:39 pm

Posted in Politics

37 Responses

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  1. Imagine you go to a convention and have Trump as number 1 and Cruz as number 2. Do they really screw over both of them and give us a ticket of 3rd and 4th place? I don’t think they’ll screw over Trump for the sake of Cruz.


    March 8, 2016 at 2:42 pm

    • Then imagine a 3rd party Trump/Cruz ticket.


      March 8, 2016 at 5:13 pm

  2. I was wrong on this too. I thought at this point, it would all be downhill. I mean, I knew the GOPe would be really resistant to a Trump nomination. They were to a Reagan and Goldwater one too, but I never expected so many of them to actually prefer either Hillary or another Presidential defeat. That’s really something. If they can’t have the party, no one can and they’ll burn it to the ground before they let Trump and his wacky ideas about controlling trade and immigration reach the White House.

    Mike Street Station

    March 8, 2016 at 3:06 pm

    • Mike, they are all part of the same globalist party. They would rather lose to Hillary and share power with her, than lose to a genuine populist leader like Trump and lose the power that they have.

      For what it’s worth, I was off Trump for a while. It wasn’t the scurrilous attacks, it was my own judgement. I’ve been watching this guy for years and I just basically said that I could not imagine him in the Oval Office.

      As a result of the GOPe machine offensive, and Romney’s speech, and thinking things over, I concluded that he was the only choice. I have Trump to thank for opening my eyes about trade. I already was onto the immigration scam, but I have to admit I was clueless about trade.

      I said to myself, you have to feel a bit of gratitude towards the person who opened your eyes. you chose your team, now stick with it. so I will, even though I think that there’s no hope. I will write him in.


      March 8, 2016 at 4:31 pm

      • I get that this election, more than any other I’ve seen in my lifetime, is far more globalist/nationalist than left/right. I’ve just never seen a situation in which the globalist are going to sink their only chance to win the Presidency over it.

        I had thought, based on previous statements, that you were not on the Trump train. I guess Romney’s speech backfired with you, and I suspect with a lot more than just you.

        Mike Street Station

        March 8, 2016 at 5:43 pm

      • I’m more starting to think their opposition to Trump really is all based on not wanting to be viewed as mean racist sexists — their “cuckservatism,” basically. The more Trump’s had to spell out his policy the more obvious it is he’s very flexible on legal immigration. He wants a “big beautiful door” in his wall, so probably Republicans and Democrats could play ball with him in letting a lot of people come back, increasing worker visas (have some rich executives cry crocodile tears about how hard it is to find workers — Trump will understand, he brought in his visa slave labor too!), etc. He talks about a tariff, which would really put a wrench in global trade, but it’s not really to be found in his detailed policy proposal on trade. In fact, on trade, he would do literally nothing but call China a “currency manipulator” — Romney’s own plan, in all its detail and potential effectiveness.


        March 8, 2016 at 6:34 pm

      • “I’m more starting to think their opposition to Trump really is all based on not wanting to be viewed as mean racist sexists — their “cuckservatism,” basically. ”

        50% that, and 50% Trump is PROLE.

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        March 8, 2016 at 6:43 pm

      • “I had thought, based on previous statements, that you were not on the Trump train. I guess Romney’s speech backfired with you, and I suspect with a lot more than just you.”

        Yes – and your right, not only me.

        But more than that I have become literally inflamed about the trade imbalance which is something I didn’t think of much before. It’s killing us, Mike. The greatest industrial infrastructure in the world was destroyed as a result of Vichy globalists. John Culbertson was a Fed Reserve economist who was a “prophet without honor,” before he died in 2001:

        Eamonn Fingleton thinks “America is finished”:


        March 8, 2016 at 7:43 pm

      • Do not fret my dear, your support for Trump is noted and appreciated, but if you know about the alt right, then you know Vox says that the guy after Trump is going to be even more hated by the globalists and the traitors.

        You have gone off about the alt right on our esteemed host’s webpage, but we all must admit that they do have a pretty good track record of predictions.

        Anonymous Bro

        March 8, 2016 at 10:30 pm

      • I have no idea WTF what you’re talking about.


        March 8, 2016 at 11:45 pm

      • “They would rather lose to Hillary and share power with her, than lose to a genuine populist leader like Trump and lose the power that they have.”

        quite clear


        March 9, 2016 at 9:04 am

  3. I still think Trump has an excellent chance. The fact that Kasich and Rubio are still around only benefits Trump. Think of it this way: Trump has yet to lose a significant number of open primaries. OH and FL will be his final tests of social proof.

    What’s happening now is that he is being forced to up his game in the face of: (i) an onslaught by the GOP; (ii) hatred from media; and (iii) his lock of political polish (read: his temper tantrums). If can reign in the latter and withstand the continued onslaught, momentum is still on his side.


    March 8, 2016 at 3:07 pm

  4. I also agree he won’t be the nominee. It will be Cruz, who will lose by a few decimals to Hillary.

    Things have a way of returning to the mean (or at least the serious/rigorous), and Trump has not yet demonstrated he could put on the clothes of a President. Even though Rubio started it, the remark on his “manhood” was puerile and undignified. Also, Trump University harmed him a lot I think.


    March 8, 2016 at 3:09 pm

    • I think Cruz would lose to Hillary in a humiliating landslide.

      Sagi Is My Guru

      March 8, 2016 at 4:20 pm

      • And when Cruz loses to Hillary, we’ll have a full 1/4 of the country who will be rightly outraged at the fact that the GOP establishment handed the election to a Clinton rather than nominate a candidate who would better represent the interests of the base.

        That’s not a pretty picture going forward.

        If Trump gets the nomination, the same people will be held in suspicion of throwing the election for Hillary should she win.

        In short, without a Trump presidency, this country is in deep sociopolitical shit moving forward.

        They are likely to see someone more anti-establishment than Trump in the next election. It might be said that a Trump presidency is likely the establishment’s best choice, assuming that it wants to survive at all, in terms of support, outside of the political class and certain groups of dispensationalists.

        Under a three party system, conservatives are likely to eventually view secession as their only choice moving forward. Certainly, they won’t win any more presidential elections. Though, secession is likely the inevitable future as it stands.


        March 8, 2016 at 6:47 pm

  5. You need to start putting bets down. 😉


    March 8, 2016 at 3:11 pm

  6. 1. I doubt there will be a contested convention. The problem with a contest convention is that it isn’t just Trump you are screwing over, it’s Cruz. The eventual nominee, probably Rubio, would get slaughtered in the general and kill the Republicans down ballot.

    2. I doubt there will be a contested convention also because the math just isn’t there. Trump is en route to 1237 as long as he wins Michigan and MS today and wins FL on the 15th.

    3. Trump’s support has risen since the beginning of the race. He is now at around 40% nationally and the primaries started with him at 36%. His numbers haven’t risen that much because: A) the race is still being hotly contested B) He is a moron who tanks in debates C) He is very polarizing with a large amount of Republican primary voters who absolutely detest him D) he has struggled in caucus states and states dominated by Stupid Christians E) He got crushed in Texas by homeboy Cruz.

    So things are really looking up for Trump overall. He needs to do well today and then hold his own in the next debate and then he’s got this. The problem has been the Stupid Christians voting for the biggest TheoCon nutjob in the race (Cruz), stealing votes and states that rightfully belong to our Glorious Leader. But the Stupid Christians have shot their bolt, they only have ID today and then one state dominated by Stupid Mormons (UT) but other than that it is states that are built for Trump except for OH.

    Otis the Sweaty

    March 8, 2016 at 3:15 pm

    • And New York and Jersey are winner-take all.

      The Undiscovered Jew

      March 8, 2016 at 5:56 pm

  7. A contested convention could actually turn out to be a good thing, because it:

    1. Makes the Trump supporters victims of an obviously non-democratic system.
    2. Sets the stage for a long-lasting political movement.
    3. Means that there’s no burden to win in the general.

    My bigger concern is that the small local elections probably depend on advertising and marketing more than the national elections, so the donor-friendly GOPe could still dominate the house and senate, even if the anti-donor movement is very popular.


    March 8, 2016 at 3:17 pm

  8. ” They drop out because they don’t want to waste money, and they don’t want to anger the establishment.”
    No they drop out because their moneybags backers no longer want to waste their money. The stupid candidates would go on forever if they could. Carly Fiorina wasn’t working. She runs for office for a living.

    Otherwise I agree w/you. There will be hell to pay.


    March 8, 2016 at 3:27 pm

  9. Trump can still win without a brokered convention because many primaries are winner take all after today. If he does well today, he’ll have about 440 delegates. there are about 900 delegates to be selected from winner take all states. That would give him 1340 delegates – 100 more than needed to lock up the nomination. even if he loses a handful of winner take all states he can make them up with delegates from the proportional contests (NY for example has 95 delegates-proportional). It’ll be tight but definitely can be done.
    One caveat: the rules are insanely complicated so it’s hard to think through all the outcomes, Connecticut for example, is proportional unless the candidate gets over 50% then it’s winner take all. there’s also the Congressional District Delegates – chosen by district level not state level results. what a mess. Real Clear has a page up where they try to explain it all:


    March 8, 2016 at 3:39 pm

  10. I’ve come to the conclusion that Trump has zero chance at the nomination. They’ll certainly stop him. Media and oligarchy won’t let him have it.

    In the long run, it’s for the better. Only someone like Trump could have gotten through the system at this point. He opened up space for nationalists. However, as we all know by now, Trump is a deeply, deeply flawed candidate. Let him be our Goldwater until someone better comes along. I’d love someone like Lou Dobbs (populist and nationalist but with much less baggage). but he’s too old.


    March 8, 2016 at 3:51 pm

    • The problem I see with that is after 8 years of Hillary, every person in the Western Hemisphere will either have a green card or citizenship. So I don’t see how a nationalist movement or conservative movement could ever gain traction at that point.

      Mike Street Station

      March 8, 2016 at 5:49 pm

      • True. I wonder if things are really changing though (I know we are always wondering when people are going to “wake up” but I think it’s actually starting). Another recession is coming (people in our sphere are constantly predicting a “collapse” but who knows when or if that will ever come) and globalization, especially trade and offshoring is continuing unabated. There will be a tipping point one way or another. We’ll see.


        March 8, 2016 at 6:48 pm

      • The recession won’t come until after the election. The financial market insiders want Hillary to win, and they will keep the money supply lose until after the election.

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        March 8, 2016 at 7:03 pm

      • “. I wonder if things are really changing though (I know we are always wondering when people are going to “wake up” but I think it’s actually starting). ”

        I think the “waking up” is starting too. Trump has gained much more traction than say, Pat Buchanan did with a similar program. The problem is that the “waking up” seems to be a lagging indicator rather than a leading one, so by the time everyone is fully awake, it’s probably too late.

        Mike Street Station

        March 8, 2016 at 7:06 pm

  11. It’s still not unwinnable for Trump, but it looks bad. I still think the objections to Trump from much of the base are based more on style than substance. People expect a certain amount of class and dignity from their president. This is especially true of the middle and upper classes.

    In any case, this primary is historic. They’ll be talking about this one for a while, especially if it goes to a brokered convention, but even if it doesn’t.

    A brokered convention would be pure chaos. It will be difficult to predict what’s going to happen even minute-to-minute, let alone months out, where we currently stand.

    Whatever happens, however, the Republicans can’t win the presidency in 2016, and they never could. The whole thing is pure theater.

    My position: the Republicans might as well just run Mitt every 4 years. He at least puts a good face on the party, and while he can’t win, neither can any other Republican. He’s at least good for Republicans in Congress and in state races. Mitt, however, doesn’t actually enjoy running for office, so he would never sign up for it. And he probably only has 1-2 good election seasons left in him before he’s too old.

    If Trump or Cruz got the nomination, I’m in the camp of the Goldwater-style defeat, which might even give Congress to the Democrats. As things stand, a Rubio or Kasich would lose by a respectable 5 points without giving up Congress.


    March 8, 2016 at 3:51 pm

  12. I really think Lion is getting ahead of himself here. As Otis says, Trump is en route to 1237 and at least Lion should have waited until tonight. If today Trump wins the open primaries of MS and MI, what happens next? Please read this and learn everything you need to know about the UniParty:


    March 8, 2016 at 3:54 pm

    • Agreed. The death-knell is premature.

      According to one betting market, he’s scheduled to win in Michigan and Mississippi, as well as Florida next week. With most (?) of the onslaught behind him, he could still turn things around into next week. He would be a terrible, terrible president, and even an awful candidate in the general election, but at this moment in time he seems the most likely to win the nomination.


      March 8, 2016 at 5:59 pm

  13. We are seeing the Trump ceiling is a real thing.

    Whereas Cruz is adding support. There are two young Hispanics in the race; the difference is that one of them is smart and has good money sense.

    We are also seeing that the drop outs add to Cruz’s support, and to an extent to Kasish. Not to Trump or Rubio.

    Lion of the Turambar

    March 8, 2016 at 3:59 pm

  14. Julian

    March 8, 2016 at 4:06 pm

  15. well said, lion.


    March 8, 2016 at 5:01 pm

  16. Most Israelis look favorably on a Trump presidency according to this poll.


    March 8, 2016 at 5:01 pm

  17. Trump will win the nomination because G-d loves America, or at least this is what I think. America can be great again


    March 8, 2016 at 6:20 pm

  18. The problem for Trump is that results which would be very good for a normal candidate aren’t quite good enough for him, because the party and the media are so against him. The hope was that his results would be so dominant that he would be unstoppable, but he kept being just stoppable enough to keep them going, and now he’s in a risky position. It’s because he just hasn’t run a good campaign over the past month.


    March 8, 2016 at 7:29 pm

  19. This doesn’t seem to be happening. I blame the massive and unprecedented attempt by the mainstream media and establishment Republicans to malign his character.

    And doesn’t Trump deserve blame for calling people names instead of debating, contradicting himself, learning nothing about what are ostensibly his own policy positions, learning even less about his opponents policies, not spending nearly as much money as his opponents, and just all around failing at all the non standup comedian duties of presidential candidate?

    He can’t win the national election unless he gets his act together and if he can’t win the GOP should take the nomination from him.

    Lloyd Llewellyn

    March 8, 2016 at 8:19 pm

  20. The establishment’s extraordinary actions indicate beyond a reasonable doubt that they believe Trump could make a real difference. This time, your vote counts for far more than it does in other years, because of him.

    It’s of course trivial to demonstrate that Trump is not the Hitler figure that so much of the media has committed to portraying him as, so the difference can’t actually be negative (otherwise the media would just report the real problems a President Trump would cause and prevent that message from getting buried in the noise); it follows that it is probably rather positive for the American people. I’ve never been a fan of Trump’s style, but that overwhelming signal has convinced me to swallow my disgust and vote for him.


    March 8, 2016 at 11:33 pm

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