Lion of the Blogosphere

Breaking news: Rubio donors say he will drop out

Charles Gasparino at Fox News reports that top donors of the Rubio campaign told him that Rubio will drop out before Florida unless he sees better polls.

Were Rubio’s guys reading my blog this morning?

Of course, this rumor creates a self-fulfilling prophecy. It adds to the impression that Rubio is a lost cause, which depresses his poll numbers even further.

When Rubio drops out, will he endorse Kasich?

* * *

Greg Pandatshang wrote in a comment:

Why would anybody drop out at this point? I wouldn’t be surprised if some people are regretting that they dropped out before. Anything could happen at a contested convention. Might as well stay in. Rubio and Kasich will always have a puncher’s chance unless Trump gets to 1,237 delegates.

As I explained in my answering comment, this represents a misunderstanding of how the convention rules work.

And I forgive everyone for not knowing the rules, because throughout my lifetime, there has never been a contested convention, they have just been media events and a party for the delegates. I had no idea about how conventions work until I started doing research the last few days, and I’m still not entirely sure.

But I believe that unless you actually go to the convention with a majority of the delegates, or close to a majority, the delegates don’t really mean anything because after the first round of voting the delegates become unbound and can vote for anyone they want. It may very well be that the Florida GOP stuffs their delegation with people loyal to Rubio, and they will support Rubio regardless of who wins the Florida primary (I would need to do some research into how Florida’s delegates actually get selected).

Rubio still won Minnesota, so if they change to rules so that anyone who won at least one state qualifies to be on the ballot, Rubio is there anyway. Under the existing rules, he’s not going to be a candidate at the convention because he won’t meet the eight-state requirement, even if he stays in. Even if he improbably wins Florida, two states is a lot fewer than eight states. (Rubio also won Puerto Rico, but that’s a territory and not a state.)

Staying in until the end, losing his home state, coming in 4th place everywhere, and being a spoiler to Kasich, is not a good image to present to the convention. It’s much better to show that he’s a team player by supporting Kasich in the best interests of the Republican Party.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

March 9, 2016 at 4:21 pm

Posted in Politics

41 Responses

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  1. Didn’t CNN have a story like this a few days ago? And didn’t the Rubio people fly into a flurry denying it?

    On the other hand, I used to think Jeb would contest Florida, because he was too proud to surrender before his home state. But that proved wrong and I guess the conventional wisdom that Rubio has to make Florida his last stand could be too.


    March 9, 2016 at 4:31 pm

  2. He throws his support to Cruz even if tacitly because he hates Trumpsterfire

    Lion of the Turambar

    March 9, 2016 at 4:31 pm

  3. Rubio will do the Romney thing of endorsing “not Trump”. This way he can spin dropping out as a noble act to save the party. Also, he is a genuine GOPe hack. He will endorse Cruz in FLA and Kasich in OH.

    Trump better not implode on the immigration stuff on Thursday’s debate like he did last time.

    Otis the Sweaty

    March 9, 2016 at 4:31 pm

  4. Rubio might be angling to save his political career, but what he really needs is gainful employment. He’s not running for re-election to the Senate, and his personal finances are a mess.


    March 9, 2016 at 4:33 pm

    • He makes half a million a year giving speeches and stuff, plus he will probably get a very cushy job as a lobbyist.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      March 9, 2016 at 4:36 pm

      • He makes a living in a cushy lobbyist job because he has political prospects. Similar to how Hillary and Bill Clinton make money with their foundation – there’s always a Clinton who can plausibly run for something in the future.

        However, the real reason that Rubio is dropping out now is because Trump has blackmail material on him and he has broadcast this fact to everyone who can hear it. At a Trump rally there were two obviously flaming gay men in the direct background – what do you want to bet that those guys know Rubio from “somewhere” (gay orgies)?

        The establishment loves Rubio because he’s easily blackmailed – but they’re dropping him like a rock now that the cat is out of the bag – if he can be controlled by you having blackmail material on him, he can be controlled by someone else having the same blackmail material on him. Rubio is done. The GOPe will pay him off a bit to keep up their reputation but that’s it – he’s off the train.

        Steve Johnson

        March 9, 2016 at 6:45 pm

      • ” At a Trump rally there were two obviously flaming gay men in the direct background – what do you want to bet that those guys know Rubio from “somewhere” (gay orgies)?”

        Well that explains this:

        Mike Street Station

        March 10, 2016 at 6:54 am

  5. They’ve already done early voting. Votes for Rubio will still be counted. If he drops out now the total will be even less, making him look even weaker.


    March 9, 2016 at 5:16 pm

  6. I figured Rubio was finished ever since his robot meltdown and has been winding down ever since.
    The 11th debate, he made a last-ditch kamikaze attack for the good of the party, spending the whole time attacking Trump, abandoning any efforts to build himself up. He hurt Trump, but hurt himself far worse.

    Giovanni Dannato

    March 9, 2016 at 5:21 pm

  7. They drop out because their donors tell them to. Have you learned nothing at Trump University?

    Lion, I don’t expect you read the NYTimes dead tree edition. I don’t either, but I came across a discarded business section in an Sbux, LOL. They have an article on the front page of the B Section called “Reviving the Working Class Without Building Walls” by Eduardo Porter. He begins: “The political system is in shock over the insurrection of the white working class, which has flocked to Mr. Trump’s candidacy.”

    Do you hear that? We have to keep this up. I’ve made peace with my former doubts. It’s Trump or nothing.


    March 9, 2016 at 5:26 pm

  8. Buh bye, Boobio.


    March 9, 2016 at 5:42 pm

  9. Irrelevant to this post, but Lion, have you ever contemplated being a test prep instructor? I just took my GRE and scored at the 99%, and I know that you also have taken the LSAT and the GMAT? and also did well. Manhattan prep only hires people who score in the 99th percentile, and because of that relatively absurd barrier to entry pay really well.
    They obviously are based out of Manhattan, and most of the in person jobs are located there. Didn’t know whether you still lack employment, but seemed to match up well with what they’re looking for


    March 9, 2016 at 5:50 pm

  10. The real breaking news is that Sky News has succeeded in getting that :
    Names and family details of 22,000 jihadis revealed in huge cache of leaked ISIS HR forms
    Recruits have to fill in 23-question registration card before they can join ISIS
    Included date of birth, marital status, previous jobs, relatives, contacts, etc.
    Former MI6 director said files could be the ‘biggest breakthrough in years’

    So now, west secret intelligence services, can destroy and/or penetrage all recruiting cells all over the world.

    Bruno from Paris

    March 9, 2016 at 5:50 pm

  11. Hey Lion I think my last comment went into auto-moderation, it has a link, but isn’t spam. I guess I could have just emailed it to you, but that seemed overly personal.


    March 9, 2016 at 5:55 pm

  12. Rubio should win 8 states

    He has Puerto Rico and Minnesota. DC and Maryland would be 4. He’s the establishment’s hope.

    The US Virgin Islands are state #5. They are very similar to Puerto Rico. They are black and not Hispanic, but would have benefitted from Rubio’s unsuccessful campaign to get Puerto Rico a bailout.

    Guam, American Samoa, and the Northern Marinara Islands make 8 states, Guam and these pacific Islands economies are heavily dependent on corrupt Republican lobbyists allowing products manufactured there with Chinese slave labor to get official “made in the USA” designations, & Rubio is the candidate of Republican lobbyists.


    March 9, 2016 at 6:02 pm

    • Puerto Rico: not a state.
      DC: not a state.
      Maryland: Trump will win that.
      U.S. Virgin Island: not a state
      Guam: not a state
      Northern Mariana Islands: not state
      American Samoa: not a state

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      March 9, 2016 at 6:27 pm

      • The Republican parts of Maryland are DC insider suburbs. The homes of the Establishment!

        For the purposes of a Rule 40, the territories are states.

        That puts him in a seat at the table in a Convention. If Rubio gets a seat at the convention next to Trump and Cruz, the two have to play a game of chicken or they both lose.


        March 9, 2016 at 6:35 pm

      • Rubio couldn’t win Virginia, and he is weaker now than he was on Super Tuesday. Maryland outside of the Beltway is more like Pennsylvania, a very pro-Trump Rust Belt state. Maryland’s racial problems (remember the stuff in Baltimore) bring out Trump voters. Maryland is more favorable to Trump than Virginia.

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        March 9, 2016 at 6:46 pm

      • What about the Fiorina endorsement of Cruz? I know everyone here thinks she’s a joke, but at The Conservative Treehouse they think the GOP-E is coalescing around Cruz.


        March 9, 2016 at 7:04 pm

      • they think the GOP-E is coalescing around Cruz.

        Doesn’t Cruz’s wife work for Goldman Sacks?

        Neil Bush just joined Ted’s campaign. Why? Why does Ted want to be contaminated by the Bush family unless he’s trying to please the GOPe.


        March 9, 2016 at 10:54 pm

  13. On MSNBC they pointed out that early voting has already started in Ohio and Florida. Kasich and Rubio would be giving the people who already voted for them a black eye by not staying in until at least those states had voted.

    “Favorite Son” candidates, who were backed by their state delegation to the convention but nowhere else, used to be a feature in nominating contests. They allowed state parties who wanted to remain neutral a place to park their delegates and bargain later. Lightning could always strike and the favorite son could emerge as a compromise candidate.

    These were easy to arrange when the state party bosses had a free hand in picking delegates, but difficult once delegates committed by primaries became the norm. Voters like to think they are picking the next president, not returning some neutral slate to allow someone else to bargain with, even if the latter arrangement would be in their own interests. This is also why “hold the balance in the Electoral College” third party candidacy strategies have almost flopped. In 2004, Dean inadvertently became a favorite son candidate by winning Vermont after he had lost everywhere else and dropped out.

    However, a stop Trump movement has to run against Trump whoever has the best chance of beating him in any particular state, which at the moment probably really is Rubio in Florida, and Kasich in Ohio. Their best shot is to stall for time this way, then find a way to get a national alternative candidate with more appeal than Ted Cruz into the later primaries.


    March 9, 2016 at 6:10 pm

  14. Lion,
    I think I am off the Trump bandwagon. I just can’t envision him as President. Although I am a Nationalist and love Trump’s rhetoric on trade and immigration, I just don’t buy his BS at this point. I still love that he was able to break through though.

    We’ll see what happens on Tuesday.


    March 9, 2016 at 6:14 pm

    • Have you seen ? There is a very clear method to his apparent madness. Falling for the media narrative that he’s a totally unpredictable Hitler-clown would be a big mistake.


      March 9, 2016 at 6:41 pm

    • Those are some deep thoughts, man.


      March 9, 2016 at 6:43 pm

    • JerseyGuy, you benefit from this conversation of Trump’s psychology on Bill Bennett’s radio show.

      [audio src="" /]

      Andrew E.

      March 9, 2016 at 9:46 pm

      • That is: ‘you may benefit from…’

        Andrew E.

        March 9, 2016 at 9:46 pm

  15. This news is “barring a positive poll.” Looks like his donors have been creating good news through polls like their jobs depend on it.


    March 9, 2016 at 6:52 pm

    • Why would an anti-Trump group pay good money for a poll when there are plenty of free polls? The answer is they want a poll that’s better propaganda for their candidate.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      March 9, 2016 at 6:57 pm

      • Yes, the poll the PAC did is an outlier, with Trump only 5 points ahead. Real Clear Politics shows 6 recent polls from Florida, in which Trump is leading between 8 and 23 points in all of them.

        How convenient that the Rubio PAC is the only one that finds him that close.

        This kind of propaganda has been happening throughout the campaign. Right before the South Carolina primary, Bill Kristol shared a secret poll from an “insider” that showed Trump only 4 points ahead of Cruz.

        The RCP average was +13, and Trump won by +10.

        It must be said that these polls are probably not fabricated out of thin air. Rather, they try to make assumptions that they know will tell them what their candidate wants to hear.

        This goes to some of your arguments about the make-work nature of the modern economy. The consultants fabricate polls giving their guy a chance, keeping themselves employed. Furthermore, they hope the propaganda value will help create a narrative that will be advantageous to them.


        March 9, 2016 at 7:43 pm

  16. “It’s much better to show that he’s a team player by supporting Kasich in the best interests of the Republican Party.”

    The GOPe tends to support whoever was a big player who lost during the prior primary cycle. So George H.W. Bush got the nomination in 1988, McCain got it in 2008 and Romney got it in 2012. Rubio is so young that he can easily run again in 4-8, even 12-20 years, and if he’s a team player now he’ll get big dividends later.


    March 9, 2016 at 6:58 pm

    • There is something too this.

      Nixon was the nominee in 1960, but they re-ran him in 1968. Nixon’s nomination was close to uncontested in 1970.

      Reagan, the runner-up in 1968, was not nominated in 1976, but was in 1980.

      GHW Bush, the runner-up in 1980, was nominated in 1988.

      Dole, the runner-up in 1988, was nominated in 1996.

      GW Bush did not previously contest the nomination, and they did not nominate Buchanan, breaking the pattern.

      But McCain, the runner up in 2000, was nominated in 2008. Romney, the runner up in 2008, was nominated in 2012. They maybe should have waited a cycle.

      The runner up this year will probably be Cruz. But I think a Trump nomination changes the party to the point where rules like these don’t apply. And you have to be the runner-up, not an also ran.

      The Democrats did nominate Humphrey and Gore after strong thirds in earlier nomination contests, but generally prefer fresh faces, in fact they seem to go out of their way to find candidates without much experience.


      March 9, 2016 at 9:59 pm

  17. Update, Florida voter here.

    The anti Trump ads that used to take up every commercial spot during ‘Jeapardty,’ and were paid for by Conservative Solutions PAC. (Rubio’s Superpac)…….

    ….. They are now anti Kasich ads!

    So, why is Rubio’s Superpac running anti Kasich ads (instead of pulled anti Trump ads) in Florida?


    March 9, 2016 at 9:11 pm

  18. Rubio will lose Florida no matter what he does between now and next Tuesday.

    What Trump needs to do is figure out a way to get Cruz out of the race. Since Cruz must know the establishment hates him more than Trump and, if anything, would give the nomination at a brokered convention to Trump before they’d give it to Cruz, he should be looking to make a deal with Trump to get out in early April. With Cruz out, Trump will sweep supermajorities of the remaining delegates.

    If I were Trump I would offer Cruz a choice between Scalia’s seat or Veep in exchange for Cruz’s exit.

    The Undiscovered Jew

    March 9, 2016 at 10:57 pm

    • No, nothing for Cruz. He is a TruCon and TruCons have no place in our Revolution.

      Also, it is pretty clear now that most of the establishment has gone over to Cruz. They hate Trump infinitely more.

      Otis the Sweaty

      March 10, 2016 at 12:36 am

      • OMG, I’m finding myself agreeing with Otis more n more. Trucons are evil – they are free trade fanatics. They should be exiled to a libertarian planet where there are no taxes and where the literal word of the King James Bible is law.

        BTW Lion, did you hear about the Idaho evangelical preacher who got shot in the head by a fruitcake? It’s an interesting story for a couple of reasons. First, you cannot believe the BS the preacher guy spreads. Total fundamentalism, and he stumps for Cruz, saying that Cruz was sent by god, etc. They believe this. Cruz won Idaho because of evangelicals, so the hell with them. They should be sent to a Chinese labor camp.

        Second, the fruitcake who shot the pastor is an interesting case: he was an ex-Marine, but he also had a degree in biochem, dropped out of a program in human genetics at a decent med school. He wrote a manifesto. What’s with the manifestos, Lion. Did murderers in the 50s write manifestos?


        March 10, 2016 at 8:10 am

      • If a murderer did write a manifesto in the 1950s, it was probably kept hidden for the good of society.

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        March 10, 2016 at 10:19 am

      • No, nothing for Cruz. He is a TruCon and TruCons have no place in our Revolution.

        There’s nothing wrong with Cruz except that he’s diverting Trump’s valuable time from the general election to the primary.

        Cruz would be a satisfactory Veep or replacement for Scalia. It’s a good trade.

        The Undiscovered Jew

        March 10, 2016 at 10:19 pm

  19. Rubio on Fox: “That is 100% categorically false. I have never discussed dropping out with anyone… on the planet Earth.”


    March 9, 2016 at 11:14 pm

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