Lion of the Blogosphere

More about who gets to be a Republican delegate

“sestamibi” wrote in a comment:

We are really in uncharted waters if no one gets a majority on the first ballot. There hasn’t been a GOP convention that has gone more than one ballot since 1952 because the Republicans have decided that these things should be dainty affairs culminating in a coronation of whoever’s “turn” it is. This explains putzes like McCain and Romney, and even Dubya (who history will regard far higher than he is now) who won only because Gore and Kerry were even bigger putzes.

Since the outcomes of these events (full disclosure: I have been a delegate or alternate to three GOP conventions myself) are pretty much guaranteed before they begin, that is reflected in the kinds of people who get to become delegates in the first place. The 1880 convention to which you refer was a meeting of a relatively new party, and its participants were (for one thing) all male and the party bosses of their local fiefdoms, so the convention was a deliberative body which could indeed go for 36 ballots before cutting a deal.

In contrast, when the outcome is preordained, the whole thing becomes a big party, like a trip to Disney World, and delegate positions are awarded to innocuous, often politically naïve individuals who have simply knocked on a lot of doors, made a lot of phone calls, and addressed a lot of envelopes: people like 70-year old Mrs. Ida Mae Folderol of Duck Flat, NE, rewarded for her 45+ years of service to the party.

Now I have known a lot of Ida Mae Folderols over the years, and they are for the most part, very sweet and sincere ladies for whom attending a national convention (at her own very considerable expense, and making a big dent in her budget, since all too many of us Republicans are not exactly rich), is the greatest experience of their political lives. However, I question their capability to make judgments affecting our national future, which they would have to make on subsequent ballots after which they are unbound.

This promises to be real interesting.

Another thing to point out is that the delegates are free agents. The only thing they are required to do is to vote for the candidate they are bound to, in the first round of balloting, if their candidate is on the ballot. Under the current rules, candidates don’t get on the ballot unless they have the support of the majority of delegates from eight states.

Rubio or Cruz cannot simply direct their delegates to vote for Trump, or Kasich, or whomever they make a deal with.

Also, delegates bound to Trump, but who don’t personally support him, are free to vote for a rules change that would harm Trump’s interests in winning the nomination, such as changing rule 40(b) to open up the voting to more candidates.

* * *

Note that rule 40(b) is one of those things the Republicans did to prevent those crazy contested conventions in the past like in 1880 which took seven days and 36 rounds of balloting. It’s pretty unlikely that more than two candidates would qualify under 40(b), and if there are only two candidates running, that pretty much assures that the nominee gets decided with one round of voting.

But now, the Republicans WANT a crazy contested convention to stop Trump, and to also stop Cruz if it comes down to Trump v. Cruz.

For starters, they would want to change the rules so everyone, even if they have a single delegate, is on the ballot. That ensures that Trump can’t win the first round, and then all of his delegates become unbound and most of them are not Trump supporters. While they are at it, they may add some changes that allow Mitt Romney or Paul Ryan to swoop in as candidates.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

March 9, 2016 at 11:07 am

Posted in Politics

35 Responses

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  1. This just shows how weird our primary & party system is. People expect their vote to count when they go to vote in a State-run election. If a party is just a private organization that can choose whom it wants any way it wants, then why are party primaries built into our official government election system at all? If the government is going to be involved, then I think the guy with the most votes should win. Otherwise, let the party select a candidate in private any way it wants, and run him in a general election.

    steve@steve.com

    March 9, 2016 at 11:42 am

  2. Hhhmmm, lawyers always do very well on these lists, usually right under physicians, but non-elite grads struggle mightily. This list will boost the number of naive, special snowflake law school applicants for the fall. Mostly all tech-related, but I guess competition for jobs is crushing; and #25, Information Systems Manager, has been one of the worst, most stressful, least secure jobs at any of the half dozen firms I’ve worked at. Isn’t pharmacy now on the down-slide as a well-paid, stable, pleasant career? The entire staff at my local CVS pharmacy is Arab and other non-White. Actuary has always scored high on these lists and seems pleasant if one can get through the series of ten exams.

    Any thoughts?

    OT: Glassdoor.com, 03/09/16 – 25 Highest Paying Jobs in America for 2016

    1. Physician
    Median Base Salary: $180,000
    Number of Job Openings: 2,064

    2. Lawyer
    Median Base Salary: $144,500
    Number of Job Openings: 995

    3. Research & Development Manager
    Median Base Salary: $142,120
    Number of Job Openings: 112

    4. Software Development Manager
    Median Base Salary: $132,000
    Number of Job Openings: 3,495

    5. Pharmacy Manager
    Median Base Salary: $130,000
    Number of Job Openings: 1,766

    6. Strategy Manager
    Median Base Salary: $130,000
    Number of Job Openings: 701

    7. Software Architect
    Median Base Salary: $128,250
    Number of Job Openings: 655

    8. Integrated Circuit Designer Engineer
    Median Base Salary: $127,500
    Number of Job Openings: 165

    9. IT Manager
    Median Base Salary: $120,000
    Number of Job Openings: 3,152

    10. Solutions Architect
    Median Base Salary: $120,000
    Number of Job Openings: 2,838

    11. Engagement Manager
    Median Base Salary: $120,000
    Number of Job Openings: 1,452

    12. Applications Development Manager
    Median Base Salary: $120,000
    Number of Job Openings: 263

    13. Pharmacist
    Median Base Salary: $118,000
    Number of Job Openings: 4,502

    14. Systems Architect
    Median Base Salary: $116,920
    Number of Job Openings: 439

    15. Finance Manager
    Median Base Salary: $115,000
    Number of Job Openings: 2,582

    16. Data Scientist
    Median Base Salary: $115,000
    Number of Job Openings: 1,985

    17. Risk Manager
    Median Base Salary: $115,000
    Number of Job Openings: 1,137

    18. Creative Director
    Median Base Salary: $115,000
    Number of Job Openings: 696

    19. Actuary
    Median Base Salary: $115,000
    Number of Job Openings: 175

    20. Data Architect
    Median Base Salary: $113,000
    Number of Job Openings: 762

    21. Tax Manager
    Median Base Salary: $110,000
    Number of Job Openings: 1,495

    22. Product Manager
    Median Base Salary: $107,000
    Number of Job Openings: 7,758

    23. Design Manager
    Median Base Salary: $106,500
    Number of Job Openings: 510

    24. Analytics Manager
    Median Base Salary: $106,000
    Number of Job Openings: 988

    25. Information Systems Manager
    Median Base Salary: $106,000
    Number of Job Openings: 147

    E. Rekshun

    March 9, 2016 at 11:45 am

    • Seems like the right salaries for management-level IT people.

      But most lawyers make only 5 figures.

      • When I graduated from law school 13 years ago, it took me a while to find a job as an associate at a law firm. My starting salary was $36,000 per year. I finished in the middle of my class at a first-tier state school. I now earn about $150,000, but that’s only because I have my own practice and taking on a lot of risk (if the phone calls don’t come in, then my income is $0). I’m totally calling BS on this claim that the “median” salary is $144,000.

        I never, ever tell anyone that law school is a good idea for them.

        Jeff

        March 9, 2016 at 1:01 pm

      • @Jeff: When I graduated from law school 13 years ago [2003], it took me a while to find a job as an associate at a law firm. My starting salary was $36,000 per year.

        My starting salary in 1986 (30 years ago!) right out of undergrad w/ a BS Comp Sci was $30K.

        E. Rekshun

        March 9, 2016 at 4:43 pm

      • Lawyer earnings: In 1994 I took a CLE course from a Bay Area lawyer who specialized in attorney divorces. He told us he saw a lot of tax returns showing $40K gross, for lawyers 10 years out.

        Department 11

        March 9, 2016 at 6:17 pm

      • @E.Rekshun
        ‘My starting salary in 1986 (30 years ago!) right out of undergrad w/ a BS Comp Sci was $30K.’

        This is pretty good! I’d started at $22,000 in 1985 after a 6 months course. I still don’t think that education paid in your case, because in a year, that is in 1986, I was making $35,000 plus $5,000 bonus. Of course I was working for a Wall Street firm and they pay the best, so it’s not exactly apples to oranges.

        Yakov

        March 9, 2016 at 6:47 pm

    • There are no jobs in America that aren’t being invaded by foreigners, and it’s all ramping up. Expect more mediocrity in performance, corruption in execution and hostility in service.

      peterike

      March 9, 2016 at 12:34 pm

    • But we need tens of thousands more H1-B tech immigrants.

      LA Times, 03/08/16 – Lockheed seeks to lay off up to 1,000 aeronautics workers

      http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-lockheed-martin-layoffs-20160308-story.html

      E. Rekshun

      March 9, 2016 at 4:38 pm

    • @Jeff: I never, ever tell anyone that law school is a good idea for them.

      Lists like this encouraged me to waste one year and $5000 in 1987 in the night program at toilet law school New England School of Law.

      E. Rekshun

      March 9, 2016 at 4:41 pm

    • Better to be a plumber. I installed a Carrier Infinity system by a Greek plumber this week. I kid you not, the guy had a Merc, a Porsh and and an Pilot SUV. Now this is an extreme case of success, but Greeks and Jews are smart. I don’t remember hearing a plumber whine about his job or low income. I fixed a furnace and installed a 30×20 chimney rain cap this Sunday. The job took me 4 hours plus 2 hours travel time and I made $500. This is neat. Also, since I learned a lot about bed bugs while getting rid of them in my own house, I did an extermination job by my friend for $150 plus materials. I took apart the bed, found the nits and did my thing. My friend saved a fortune, learned how to do it himself and I made a few dollars. I don’t remember an exterminater complaining either. The guy that sold me supplies was telling me about a house he had recently bought in Florida. This is neat. He says NY had a lot of bugs and is a good place to be in the field, better then Florida, that’s what he says.

      You mates, just don’t get, do you? Study science, math on whatever if you like it, but keep your eyes focused on what you need to do to earn money in real life. An electrician or a plumber can have a job in Gulag or in Africa, who needs lawyers or tax accountants over there? This is very important for the Jewish guys, like Lion, because a Jew never knows where he is gonna find himself. If he has a trade, he has a better chance to survive.

      Obviously, a guy like Trump doesn’t need to be a plumber, because he has brains. But you guys can never be like him or marry women like him, so get real. I’m gonna give up on you soon, I think. You just keep chewing the same cud. Anyway lawers and accountants are crooks. Trades are much better for your moral character and the purity of your soul. Your hands are dirty, but your mind is not and the mind is the most important thing.

      Yakov

      March 9, 2016 at 6:37 pm

      • jakov: Please keep posting. I find your posts very interesting and worthwhile. I’m not a trained tradesperson, but am very handy and do much of my own home improvements and repairs; but I, like everyone else on this blog, is too lazy to do trade work every day, no matter what the pay, as a career for 20 or 30+ years.

        E. Rekshun

        March 10, 2016 at 4:55 am

  3. This tells me that there is a lot of skulduggery that can happen if Trump does not get the minimum number of delegates to get the nomination on the first ballot. However, suppose Trump does get the minimum number. Is there anything that the GOPe can do to nevertheless deny him the nomination? Can they change the rules in some way?

    ASF

    March 9, 2016 at 11:58 am

  4. Cruz cannot win. Trump takes NY and NJ 100%. Without those states Cruz can’t get to 1237. What do his supporters say about that? #NeverTrump?

    Andrew E.

    March 9, 2016 at 12:04 pm

  5. The Trump campaign has been a fascinating exposure of our “leadership” class. It’s really all about the gimmedats, at every level. That fat K-street job is just as much as gimmedat as Trayvontious in the hood getting food stamps and an Obama phone.

    Our nation is corrupt at top and bottom. Only the ever shrinking middle keeps the lights on.

    peterike

    March 9, 2016 at 12:36 pm

    • That’s true, but I’m not sure it’s all that new. Every nation is corrupt all the time, as a few people at the top struggle to dominate, and some people at the bottom struggle to get by at all, and most people struggle to have the best version of a happy medium that they can manage. Lots of corners get cut. So, I think it’s all a matter of degree. Hard to say how near the brink we are exactly. We’re always pretty close, and the stakes are always high.

      Greg Pandatshang

      March 9, 2016 at 4:20 pm

  6. So, if the current rules continue to be in force, it sounds like perhaps only Trump and Cruz will meet the 8 state minimum to be nominated. What would the delegates pledged to vote for Rubio & Kasich & miscellaneous do in the first round of voting? Are they required to abstain? If there are only two candidates nominated, that doesn’t mean that one of them is necessarily considered to have a majority, does it? I mean, it has to be a majority of delegates including the ones abstaining, right? Can additional candidates be nominated after the first ballot under the current rules? I took a very quick look at the bylaws, but didn’t have time to review in detail, and the answers were far from obvious, so I’m wondering if anybody here already knows.

    Greg Pandatshang

    March 9, 2016 at 12:46 pm

    • As far as I can tell, the delegates for Rubio, Kasich etc. can vote for whomever they want the first round if their own guy isn’t running.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      March 9, 2016 at 3:13 pm

      • In that case, if Trump comes into the convention with under 50% of delegates, we could see intense campaigning (+bribes, blackmail, and threats) followed by, theoretically at least, a Cruz win on the first ballot.

        Or, if most of the Trump delegates don’t actually want to vote for him, the party could just change their bylaws on the fly to release all delegates from their pledges. Then nominate Romney on the first ballot.

        Greg Pandatshang

        March 9, 2016 at 4:00 pm

  7. Trump will be able to afford to be magnanimous the more he dominates upcoming votes. Having shown some heart and diplomacy, the GOP will find some way to rationalize falling in love with a winner. All Romney’s and the #nevertrump tantrums will be forgotten in the endlessly refreshing newscycle.

    Barring any big “own-goals” or other revelations, Trump could crush Hillary in a landslide thanks to the support of those Reagan-Trump Democrats. However I’m concerned that Trump likely has plenty of sleaze waiting to be revealed. Real estate development and casinos have to be some of the most corrupt businesses there ever were. To succeed in these is like trying to do business in Russia. You have to be crooked to survive.

    Thin-Skinned Masta-Beta

    March 9, 2016 at 3:37 pm

  8. Rubio is dropping out!

    That makes 3 careers now that Trump has ended: Rubio, Bush and Perry. Rubio is far and away his most impressive scalp to date.

    Otis the Sweaty

    March 9, 2016 at 3:43 pm

    • Why would anybody drop out at this point? I wouldn’t be surprised if some people are regretting that they dropped out before. Anything could happen at a contested convention. Might as well stay in. Rubio and Kasich will always have a puncher’s chance untless Trump gets to 1,237 delegates.

      Greg Pandatshang

      March 9, 2016 at 4:24 pm

      • Just because they suspend their campaign doesn’t mean they can’t be selected as the nominee at the convention (assuming there’s a second round of voting and rule 40(b) is changed).

        Dropping out now puts him in a BETTER position to win at the convention. Staying in until the end, losing his home state, coming in 4th play everywhere, and being a spoiler to Kasich, is not a good image to present to the convention.

        Much better to show that he’s a team player by supporting Kasich in the best interests of the Republican Party.

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        March 9, 2016 at 4:26 pm

      • Fair enough. He’s got to game out what’s going to put him in a better position for convention craziness. Dropping out and then trying to come back at the convention sounds like a bad narrative, but so does losing his home state and coming in 4th all the time (or maybe sometimes 5th behind Vermin Supreme). If the delegates at a contested convention want to select someone who is not exactly an active candidate, maybe they would prefer someone who isn’t already a proven loser who has admitted defeat. Like Nikki Haley instead of Marco Rubio. Romney, as you have often suggested, is the obvious choice from a GOP delegate’s perspective; I feel like Rubio would want to stay in front of that by able to say “he’s not a candidate! I am.” and hoping to wrap things up early in the confusion process before Romney gets fully swooped in. But maybe you’re right that clinching on the ropes is the least worst plan. Not a lot of good options for Rubio as long as people keep not voting for him.

        Greg Pandatshang

        March 9, 2016 at 4:43 pm

      • “Just because they suspend their campaign doesn’t mean they can’t be selected as the nominee at the convention (assuming there’s a second round of voting and rule 40(b) is changed).”

        And then there’s Jeb! With a suspended campaign, he’s tanned, rested and ready to assume the throne. See you at the convention.

        Arriba!

        Mike Street Station

        March 9, 2016 at 6:11 pm

      • I know you are being sarcastic, but I would certainly not be shocked if he re-appeared as a candidate.

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        March 9, 2016 at 6:29 pm

      • “I know you are being sarcastic, but I would certainly not be shocked if he re-appeared as a candidate.”

        I’m being both sarcastic and recognizing it’s a real possibility. If they end up throwing out the rules and anointing one of their own, why not the one they wanted to begin with?

        Mike Street Station

        March 9, 2016 at 6:42 pm

  9. They would unleash more troubles than it’s worth if there was public perception of foul play at the convention. Establishment would be better off letting a center right candidate who talks big do his thing. Perhaps short term concern over patronage money could push them into doing some really stupid things. It would make for some fantastic mayhem, very possibly much worse for them than a Trump presidency ever would be. Reagan-esque politics are finally being phased out no matter what they do. They can change with the times or go down kicking and screaming.

    Giovanni Dannato

    March 9, 2016 at 3:46 pm

  10. Supposing Trump took Kasich as a running mate before the convention. Does that get Kasich’s delegates?

    Dan

    March 9, 2016 at 4:04 pm

  11. Trump needs to call 100,000 armed supporters to hang out in Cleveland, to make sure everything goes ‘smoothly.’

    Dan

    March 9, 2016 at 4:05 pm

    • Count me in! Minutemen militia! And regardless of what happens some people need to be taught a lesson. A riot is the only thing that may save that stupid convention.

      Yakov

      March 9, 2016 at 6:40 pm

  12. “…This explains putzes like McCain and Romney, and even Dubya (who history will regard far higher than he is now) ”

    Higher? As in more highly, or highly worse. I can see W as the beginning of the end. Of the GOP, nation states, America.

    You couldn’t have created a worse President.

    esiz

    March 9, 2016 at 9:47 pm


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