Lion of the Blogosphere

Tuesday results

Trump surprised me in Hawaii. Especially after he lost in Maine, a state that I thought he’d win. My explanation here is that, in the absence of a strong enthusiastic base of hardcore TrueCons (like they had in Maine), Trump’s enthusiastic supporters helped him to win the caucus.

The other big story here is the Rubio collapse. Fourth place in the biggest races, Mississippi and Michigan. And only 5.1% of the vote in Mississippi, in a region where Rubio was getting more like 20% on Super Tuesday. Rubio has collapsed. Everyone knows it now.

Rubio coming in ahead of Kasich in Idaho is a Mormon thing and doesn’t mean he has support anywhere else in the West besides in Utah (which I now predict for Cruz because of Rubio’s collapse). And we assume that Rubio’s narrow 2.5-point lead over Kasich in the Hawaii caucus is because native Hawaiian and Japanese-Americans wanted to vote for a guy who also has brown skin. This is a factor unique to Hawaii. In fact, Rubio was given a good chance of winning Hawaii a while back, so there is not comfort in just barely avoiding fourth place.

The only state where the combined Rubio+Kasich vote would have come in higher than third place is in Michigan, where Kasich was strong and would have beat Cruz for second place bragging rights if Rubio had dropped out of the race.

Based on Kasich’s surprisingly strong showing in the neighboring state of Michigan, I predict he will win his home state of Ohio. Similarly, based on Rubio’s collapse in the Deep South, I predict Rubio will lose Florida. Polls show him losing and he has negative momentum.

Will Rubio drop out before Florida? This may turn into a weird case of the GOPe now wanting him to stay in so he might win the delegates, while Rubio wants to drop out before suffering such an embarrassing loss that would kill his future political career.

* * *

The GOPe probably wants Rubio to drop out immediately, to ensure that Kasich wins his home state and also wins the DC convention. Rubio losing his home state to Trump doesn’t help defeat Trump, it does the opposite by making him look stronger.

Multiple polls released today show Rubio way way behind Trump in Florida, and Kasich very close behind Trump in Ohio. If Rubio drops out right now and endorses Kasich, that would surely put Kasich over the edge in Ohio, while Florida is obviously a lost cause.

* * *

Also, polls show Kasich and Rubio closely tied in Illinois for second place, with Trump in a weak first place. If Rubio drops out now and endorses Kasich, then Kasich has a good chance of beating Trump in Illinois (based on the theory that Rubio’s “establishment lane” voters will mostly go to Kasich) and picking up the lion’s share of delegates (based on delegate rules which disproportionately award the first-place guy). It’s much safer to bet on Kasich in Illinois than on Rubio winning Florida. Every poll shows Trump has an insurmountable lead over Rubio in Florida; Trump will win 100% of Florida’s delegates whether Rubio stays in or drops out.

* * *

Isaac Chotiner at Slate Magazine says: “Marco Rubio Needs to Drop Out Now. Not Tomorrow. Now. It’s his only shot at taking down Trump and restoring his own dignity.”

* * *

Trump-hating Erik Erickson wrote yesterday that Rubio should drop out before Florida, but his reasoning is that it helps Cruz who is better than Trump. I guarantee that Rubio is NEVER going to “ally with Cruz.” Rubio hates Cruz. And no one in the GOPe will ask him to endorse Cruz because they also hate Cruz.

* * *

Yesterdy, CNN reported:

Publicly, the campaign is maintaining they are still a contender in this race, touting a Sunday win in Puerto Rico’s primary that delivered Rubio 23 delegates. But privately, the campaign is having a debate about whether he should remain in the mix — even for his home state of Florida’s primary.

“He doesn’t want to get killed in his home state,” one source familiar with the discussions said, noting “a poor showing would be a risk and hurt his political future.”

Most of the senator’s advisers agree he does not have a path to the nomination and some are advising him to get out ahead of the March 15 primary.

Sources within the campaign also say the pressure will only continue to mount following an expected disappointing showing Tuesday, when voters in Michigan, Mississippi, Hawaii and Idaho make their picks in the GOP primary.

“Not going to have a great day is an understatement,” one campaign source said.

Coming in fourth in Mississippi behind Kasich is probably even worse than his advisers imagined would happen.

* * *

Rubio says the CNN story is false, but the reporter responded: “So the Rubio campaign may not be happy that this story is out there when they are fighting for their life, they don’t want people to know there is dissent in the campaign, but the reality is we were told there has been a serious debate about whether he should drop out before the Florida primary.”

* * *

Probably, the reason why Trump is saying that Rubio should drop out is because he’s using reverse psychology.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

March 9, 2016 at 9:32 am

Posted in Politics

28 Responses

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  1. So those murders in Kansas by an illegal alien where worth it because of family reunification and muh feels. Americans commit murder all the time so it’s okay that an illegal do it. Hopefully this helps Trump in Missouri.

    Mayor of Space

    March 9, 2016 at 9:44 am

    • At times like this, I miss Lee Atwater.


      March 9, 2016 at 10:48 am

  2. There are actually lots of Mormons in Hawaii, both transplants from the mainland and native converts.


    March 9, 2016 at 9:45 am

  3. Some people have theorized that the military and ex-military vote may have delivered Hawaii to Trump.


    March 9, 2016 at 9:47 am

  4. Do these results change your thoughts on Trump not winning the nomination?

    Pete M

    March 9, 2016 at 9:49 am

  5. And we assume that Rubio’s narrow 2.5-point lead over Kasich in the Hawaii caucus is because native Hawaiian and Japanese-Americans wanted to vote for a guy who also has brown skin.

    Aren’t there Mormons out in Hawaii, including Polynesian converts? Maybe like the Utah Mormons they went for foamboi.


    March 9, 2016 at 9:54 am

    • Hawaii is 5% Mormon, and we can assume they are almost all Republican so maybe the Republican Party is 10% Mormon, which could account for Rubio getting 2% more of the vote than Kasich.

      • Why do you assume that Mormons are excited about an ex-Mormon. Since their church teaches them to shun those who leave the church (or cult).


        March 9, 2016 at 10:41 am

    • Rubio’s pictures on the internet show him to be completely white. He looks no more Japanese or Polynesian than I do and my ancestors all came from Germany and the British Isles.


      March 9, 2016 at 10:35 am

      • I think Rubio is somewhat mixed. Mildly so.


        March 9, 2016 at 11:39 am

    • Trump’s native Hawallan campaign manager tears up with emotion in thanks for Trump’s candidacy and victory in Hawaii.


      March 9, 2016 at 11:41 am

    • Rubio has brown skin? What?

      Steven J.

      March 9, 2016 at 3:08 pm

  6. Kasich strong in Michigan? I don’t know about that. He’s been camped out there for weeks now, spent a lot of money on ads and GOTV. Some polls showed him closing fast on Trump during the last week and despite all that Trump wins convincingly. Including a decisive win in southern Michigan bordering Ohio. I think Kasich is looking at his performance last night in MI and feeling pretty shaky about OH.

    Andrew E.

    March 9, 2016 at 10:14 am

  7. I say Trump wins OH – he’ll eek out a win.


    March 9, 2016 at 10:16 am

  8. It was a great night. Just a few days ago I was worried Trump might come away with only one victory, at best two, and he got three. I never saw Hawaii coming, it being (1) a caucus state, (2) mostly Asian and multiracial, and (3) remote from mainland concerns (which seems to equal establishment in the demographically similar territories). Trump also never campaigned there. Yet he won it more decisively than some of his southern states.

    I don’t understand it. If you take Ronald Reagan in 1980 as the consensus pick, Hawaii has voted for the establishment/consensus guy in every prior GOP primary except for 1988, when weirdly the state went for Pat Robertson in a landslide. I don’t know what to make of that either.


    March 9, 2016 at 10:17 am


    A CNN/ORC poll out Wednesday has Trump holding the lead in Florida with almost double the share of voters than Rubio (40 percent to 24 percent). Cruz follows with 19 percent and Kasich has just 5 percent.

    The poll of Ohio Republicans has Trump ahead of the Ohio governor 41 percent to 35 percent. Texas Sen. Ted Cruz has 15 percent and Rubio is a distant fourth with 7 percent.


    The poll is also good news for Hillary Clinton. The former secretary of state leads Bernie Sanders 63 percent to 33 percent in Ohio and 61 percent to 34 percent in Florida.


    March 9, 2016 at 10:20 am

    • The polls on Michigan were way off; the average had Clinton beating Sanders by 20-odd points. I don’t see him losing to her by 30 points in Ohio when he just beat her by 2 in Michigan.


      March 9, 2016 at 10:33 am

  10. OT: We’ve got a manifesto from the guy who shot that pastor in Idaho:

    He seems like a David Icke-type schizophrenic, although he’s fairly lucid for someone who believes that a race of highly advanced sex crazed Martians are secretly controlling the world.


    March 9, 2016 at 10:28 am

    • How do we know that they aren’t, and they are just very effective at covering up their influence?

      • Good point, and isn’t it strange that the pastor is doing just fine after being shot six times by an ex-Marine? One of the shots was a head shot too.


        March 9, 2016 at 11:05 am

  11. Does home state loyalty override Kasich’s support for TPP and NAFTA?


    March 9, 2016 at 10:37 am

    • If you think that Cruz is a crazy extremist and Trump is Hitler, then you obviously vote for the only adult, Kasich.

  12. RE: Hawaii. I’d venture that the small increase for Rubio had more to do with the more moderate nature of Hawaii Republicans than anything to do with Mormonism or skin color. For one, I don’t think either Polynesians or Asians relate to Hispanics. Secondly, most Republicans in HI are whites and most whites in HI (except for the military) are wealthy whites not prole whites (because the state is so expensive). Rubio’s support in HI is a reflection of the comparative wealth of the white population there.


    March 9, 2016 at 10:44 am

  13. If Rubio wants to run for re-election to his Senate seat he will have to drop out of the presidential race quite soon. Florida law doesn’t let people run for two offices at a time, and the filing deadline for the Senate race is coming up in a month or so.



    March 9, 2016 at 10:58 am

  14. The military might help explain why Trump won Hawaii.

    Trump does considerably better among military than non-military:

    Hawaii has the highest percentage active duty of any state, by far, around 50,000 in a state of only a million and change.


    March 9, 2016 at 11:04 am

  15. “Marco Rubio Needs to Drop Out Now. Not Tomorrow. Now. It’s his only shot at taking down Trump and restoring his own dignity.”

    His dignity is over. He blew his political chances by joining the Gang of 8, for no logical reason that I could see. It made no sense to be the conservative Republican who helped sell Obama’s pet new voter project. Shame too. He could have been a contender.

    Mike Street Station

    March 9, 2016 at 1:17 pm

    • He was probably all excited that the GOP leadership was showering him with attention (for being young allegedly good looking and Hispanic, the perfect guy for outreach to the “natural conservatives”).

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      March 9, 2016 at 3:16 pm

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