Lion of the Blogosphere

March 15 primaries betting opportunities and analysis


Florida: Trump dominates in the polls. But the odds aren’t particularly good (in the sense that I had to risk 88 cents to win 12 cents). I bet some money, however, to demonstrate that I believe in Trump.

Illinois: Trump is ahead in the polls, and I believe that the Rust Belt will be strong for Trump.

North Carolina: North Carolina is like Virginia but without the anti-Trump pro-establishment DC suburbs. Thus I bet on Trump who won in both Virginia and South Carolina.

Ohio: I bet on Kasich here long before the price increase. The two latest polls show Kasich ahead, and Rubio says that his supporters in Ohio should vote for Kasich. Still a good bet even at 73 cents.

Missouri: I saved Missouri for last because it’s the most complicated state to analyze. I previously said it’s too close to call, but today I am betting on Trump, even though he’s now selling for 62 cents for the contracts.

Missouri is geographically in Cruz country, and although the one poll shows that Trump is a few points ahead, Cruz has come in well ahead of the polls in states that are in Cruz country,.

However there are two factors that favor Trump here.

1. Missouri has a completely open primary. A Democrat is free to vote in the Republican primary for Trump. This benefits Trump and hurts Cruz.

2. Missouri has a lot more black people than states where Cruz won. Let’s look at the percent of black people in those states:

Idaho 1%
Maine 1%
Iowa 3%
Kansas 6%
Oklahoma 7%
Missouri 11%

The presence of black people makes life a lot worse for blue-collar whites, and unhappy blue-collar whites are where Trump’s heaviest support comes from.

* * *

I believe that the contracts on Kasich to win the nomination will reach their peak value after Rubio drops out. So I am holding on until then.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

March 13, 2016 at 3:32 pm

Posted in Uncategorized

30 Responses

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  1. “Missouri is geographically in Cruz country.”

    Missouri is a split state. Sitting on a boundary of the American nations, only the Midlands part of the state is in Cruz country. The southern part of the state, the Greater Appalachian part, is Trump territory. Trump appears to have a strong appeal to the Scots-Irish.

    This does make the state difficult to call.

    The presence of Blacks is a minor factor in Trump’s support, since Greater Appalachian areas that are overwhelmingly White are Trump’s greatest stronghold (exemplified by West Virginia and in the Appalachian sections of Virginia proper).


    March 13, 2016 at 4:13 pm

  2. Missouri is the buckle of the Bible belt. I’d be very surprised if Cruz doesn’t win the primary there.


    March 13, 2016 at 4:27 pm

    • Abilene Texas is the buckle of the Bible Belt.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      March 13, 2016 at 4:32 pm

    • You might want to compare the primary map with the bible belt. Except for Texas and Oklahoma, Trump is dominating throughout the bible belt.


      March 13, 2016 at 5:32 pm

      • That red patch looks like a burn on America’s butt.


        March 13, 2016 at 9:03 pm

      • Except for the St. Louis area, that map is just a map of Dixie, the area that is culturally southern.

        The Bible Belt overlaps with much of that, but includes most of the rural Midwest. And there are a few parts of the South that don’t really fit with the Bible Belt.


        March 13, 2016 at 9:26 pm

      • Ed — The rural midwest is religious but I wouldn’t consider it part of the bible belt. Very different culture and religion. They’re not even the same ethnicity.


        March 14, 2016 at 5:07 am

  3. Ohio and Florida are difficult, since in national politics they tend to wind up very close to the national average (slightly more Republican, but this doesn’t matter in primary politics), but both have what amounts to strong favorite strong candidates, which any “Stop Trump” movement badly needs to win.

    Missouri I covered. I can’t see any reason why Trump wouldn’t do really well in North Carolina.

    Actually the difficult state is Illinois, because one little noticed facet of the Trump thing is that he has relatively more difficulty in machine politics states. Illinois is the machine politics state par excellence, and also a place, like New York and New Jersey, where the Democratic and Republican machines will cooperate against each other’s reformers and dissidents. Trump doesn’t have the support within the machine itself like he will have in New York and New Jersey. The problem is that this would normally point to a Rubio win, which just isn’t happening right now.

    For much the same reasons this will be a good night for Hillary Clinton, and the only question is whether it will be good enough to put away the threat from Bernie Sanders. Illinois is a gimme for her. Sanders doing well in Florida would cause me to revise everything I thought I knew about the state. His best chance for an outright win may turn out to be in North Carolina, which will be his best southern state unless you count Arizona. North Carolina is a rare example of having a strong enough Democratic Party that the primary electorate is not African-American dominated, while not being as pro-establishment as Virginia.


    March 13, 2016 at 4:37 pm

    • “thing is that he has relatively more difficulty in machine politics states. ”

      Why (or how) does this machine keep coming up with governors who land in the slammer?


      March 13, 2016 at 6:35 pm

  4. I’ve been reading that rural Missouri is livid about the shenanigans at Mizzou. Why they have even taken down their mascots!! That’s showing them! Whether that will translate into anything tangible, however, who can say. White people do the darndest things.

    Regarding Illinois, does anyone know if Dems & Republicans vote in the same polling places? Who here wants to bet on some violent intimidation against Republican voters in Chicago – if there are any.


    March 13, 2016 at 4:57 pm

  5. Missouri is bounded on the North and West by Cruz states and on the South and East by Trump states.

    I think there’s something to your regional voting hypothesis as well as your observation that areas with lots of blacks vote Trump. Kansas City and St Louis both have lots of blacks and very high violent crime rates. The St Louis area even had racist riots a year and a half ago. And the same groups that rioted there just attacked a Trump rally in Chicago. As the two largest cities in a largely rural state, I think they’ll swing Missouri for Trump.


    March 13, 2016 at 5:17 pm

  6. Even if your prediction performance is poor, Lion, you’ve put your bets in hard numbers, and on the table for all to see. That puts you head-and-shoulders above most.


    March 13, 2016 at 5:36 pm

  7. Rubio & Kasich might stay in even if they lose their states in order to rack of delegates for a contested convention.

    Steven J.

    March 13, 2016 at 6:13 pm

  8. Trump will win both Florida and Ohio. These protests are going to help him a lot more than hurt him. When everyday Americans see welfare bums flying USSR and Mexican flags while instigating riots they instinctively get angry, which bodes well for Trump turnout. I have also noticed that the media has been starting to slowly treat Trump more and more fairly in the coverage of these events. I attribute this directly to Trump’s willingness to fight back and call the media on the carpet. It’s working.

    His shifting of the Overton Window in just six months is astounding. Following the drubbing that Angela Merkel’s party received this weekend in Germany I reviewed the comments sections on dozens of sites. The growing defiance of not only Merkel’s policies but the hatred toward third world immigration in general, is nothing short of mind blowing. And i’m not talking about conservative sites either. I’m talking about MSN, Yahoo, Bloomberg, etc. They seem to be at least 80% outspokenly against the elites and their push for cultural invasion. We are witnessing something extraordinary here. I think we are seeing the early stages of a right wing coup in continental Europe, and we will have our own underway this November.


    March 13, 2016 at 8:11 pm

    • I hope you’re right B.T.D.T, but I just don’t see it. The way the media has handled the Chicago protests has got to be the most one-sided, manipulative, counter-factual coverage I have ever seen. Sure, the Trump supporters see right through it and will only become even more enthusiastic to vote for Trump, but I fear the fence sitters are going to swing the other way. I don’t think Trump will win Ohio.

      Great Again

      March 13, 2016 at 8:41 pm

  9. GOP-e is never going to give Trump the nom:


    March 13, 2016 at 9:02 pm

    • The GOPe doesn’t control the primary voters, and they don’t control the delegates as much as you think they do.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      March 13, 2016 at 9:05 pm

      • Yes and no Lion. Soros, Zuckerberg, the Koch Brothers, and the rest of the Axis of Evil flew to Sea Island Georgia on their private jets to meet with Cruz, !Jeb! Bush, Kasich, and Rubio to figure out how to defeat Donald Trump. Just now NR posted a story by Kevin Williamson on how Whites need to die, and deserve it, if they were not successful.

        I suppose the plan is to simply discount all Trump votes, by order of elected Republicans: Senators, Congressmen, Governors, and State Representatives. Soros/Zuckerberg/Koch money will flow like water to seal the deal. Already Rubio is saying he won’t support Trump, if he is the nominee. Plan B I’m sure will be a GOPe “alternative” party if enough people don’t sign on to the Soros plan. With I’m sure Rubio running on the Foam Party or some variation thereof. Hence his signaling that he won’t support Trump if Trump wins the nomination.

        Ironically Trump is the most pro-Black of all the candidates, in favor of AA, closing the border (stopping ethnic cleansing of Black neighborhoods, preserving social spending in favor of Blacks, preserving AA privileges instead of all going to Hispanics); deporting illegals; and protectionism (big demand for manufacturing labor with a labor shortage — bingo ex con Blacks get hired).

        But BECAUSE Trump is favored by Working Class Whites (proles in other words) Blacks just HATE HATE HATE him. Trump threatens the one thing Black voters really care about — groveling abasement by any random White to any random Black. That is the one thing that Democrats have delivered in spades (no pun intended) and seems to be the only thing Blacks care about. Not ethnic cleansing out of Compton, now Latino Majority; not unemployment; not preserving welfare for Black people at a decent standard.

        Call it the Revenge of Disco, or payback for the Disco Demolition Derby Night. But that is the animating feature.


        March 14, 2016 at 3:25 am

      • I was just pulling your leg. But I think it’s entirely possible for the Republicans to run a rump ticket with two dullards (Kasich/Romney?, something like that), and for Bernie to run as an independent. His supporters are *rabid* – they make Trump supporters look sedate. What’s going to happen when HRC gets the nom? The dynamics here are very fluid & unstable.

        “The presence of black people makes life a lot worse for blue-collar whites, and unhappy blue-collar whites are where Trump’s heaviest support comes from.”

        That in a nutshell is the name of the game of life in the US: how the presence of a given minority impacts the well-being of the local whites. I wish you would take it further, maybe make it the subject of a post, with Hispanics, East Asian-Americans, South-Asian Americans, and so on. How does the presence of a given minority affect the white class it serves/competes with, etc.


        March 14, 2016 at 8:47 am

      • @whiskeysplace As anecdotal evidence, I work retail in Texas in an upscale neighborhood, but at the edge of it, next to normal houses and normal neighborhoods. I have seen no less than 3 black people (all women for some reason) openly wearing Trump shirts. His aggro style and populism seems to have stirred something there.

        Does that mean he’ll get a significant portion of the black vote? Probably not. If, however, the vote is more mixed or turnout is worse for Hill than for Obama (highly likely) and prole white turnout is high/significantly more Republican(also very likely) it means that Trump is going to sweep the electoral college.


        March 14, 2016 at 11:37 am

  10. Surprisingly sympathetic NY Times Trump article.

    Mireya Linsky, born to a Jewish family in Cuba, came to the United States as a refugee at age 5. Her family lived in public housing here for several years and sometimes relied on assistance from Catholic Charities. She has spent the past 33 years working for the Hillsborough County School District.

    So Mrs. Linsky, 55, understands that some may see certain contradictions in the fact that she is now spending several nights a week volunteering here at Donald J. Trump’s campaign office. “Like I’m just pulling the drawbridge up behind me,” she says.

    Yet Mrs. Linsky is also quick to acknowledge a long list of racial fears and resentments that she says help explain why she is drawn to Mr. Trump: She is furious at undocumented workers who “come basically to see what they can get.” She is wary of Muslim Americans imposing their religion on communities in the United States. She is fearful of more American jobs being outsourced to China, India or Mexico. She even suspects President Obama “has a dislike for white folks.”

    “We’re not taking care of our own,” she said.

    …As Mrs. Aquino talks about what she loves about Mr. Trump — how “he’s against lobbyists” and how he’s “not influenced by big corporations” — at first it sounds as if she might be talking about Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont. But then she begins talking about a scourge of illegal immigrants. Mrs. Aquino stresses that when she arrived from the Philippines, she followed every rule, paid every fee. “I went through the process,” she said. She learned English, became a citizen and worked to “create my own American dream.”

    Mrs. Aquino brings up a court case she just read about. An Army captain, a Sikh, had sued the Defense Department, seeking the right to wear a turban and beard in adherence with his faith. “Adhere to American culture,” she says disapprovingly. “Adhere to American tradition.”


    March 13, 2016 at 9:59 pm

    • It is NOT a sympathetic article, it is deeply contemptuous and full of lies.

      “Yet Mrs. Linsky is also quick to acknowledge a long list of racial fears and resentments that she says help explain why she is drawn to Mr. Trump…”

      Racial fears and resentments cause people to support Trump.

      And then there’s the graf about “ugly images” of Trump supporters squaring off against protesters. I can’t manage to cut and paste because every time I try I get kicked into another article, but it has to be read to be believed.

      You have to get wise to the NY Times shit-smarm style. Always be nice to the little people, pat them on the head like the little retarded children they are, and lard the article with disgusting lies and spin.


      March 14, 2016 at 10:02 am

  11. Only thing I’d add is NC *does* have some liberal voters in the Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill area and around Charlotte. Probably not enough to sway a Republican primary election though.


    March 13, 2016 at 10:00 pm

  12. I happen to know a blue collar white guy in Saint Louis. He’s a cab driver who has negative experiences with blacks on a regular basis. He has voted Democrat his entire life but supports Trump with a strong passion. He will vote for Trump in Missouri’s open primary. He’s just one person so it’s very anecdotal but he supports your theory about Missouri.

    Jay Fink

    March 13, 2016 at 10:27 pm

    • Trump hasn’t indicated he’ll be particularly tough on blacks. But what I’ve realized is that regardless of what Trump is saying now or has said in the past, racial battle lines have been drawn around his candidacy – and when it comes to blacks, at least, it was not Trump supporters who were the dominant force in drawing these lines. It was the anti-white Left which has defined him as the pro-white, “racist” candidate from the moment he said bad people were coming across the border, and it was disruption by Black Lives Matter that created the optics of blacks being ejected from Trump rallies. Therefore, if a cab driver who is sick of bad behavior by blacks wants to vote for the anti-black candidate, well, that is Trump, as defined by the Left.

      In a broader sense, if one wants to vote against the anti-white Left and those who go along with their attitudes and tactics (such as Cruz, who blamed Trump for the mob that shut down Trump’s rally), then one has to vote for Trump. That’s why it’s Trump or nothing for me.


      March 14, 2016 at 12:38 am

  13. According to this guy’s analysis, it’s better for Trump if Kasich wins Ohio and stays in the race. The median outcome of computer simulations has Trump finishing with 1,189 delegates (but this assumes Kasich stays in until the bitter end–he could still drop out sometime after winning Ohio).

    A head-to-head race with Cruz (after Ohio) has Trump gaining a median of 548 more delegates, for a total of only 1,013.

    Not sure which helps Trump more: Kasich splitting the anti-Trump vote or the social proof that would come with Trump wins in OH, FL, and IL.


    March 14, 2016 at 9:06 am

  14. I don’t really see how Trump could win the nomination with 1237 delegates. I’m not even sure Trump *should* be the nominee if he doesn’t get to 1237.

    If Trump could only get more delegates going head to head with Cruz than he really doesn’t deserve to be the nominee.

    Otis the Sweaty

    March 14, 2016 at 10:43 am

  15. I’m reading The Art of the Deal and got all the way to chapter 3 where I saw that Trump’s grandfather (Fred’s dad) actually immigrated from Sweden. Are there lots of swedes with German names? (I’m betting that asking a bunch of New York jews is the right way to resolve this question.) Or is “Drumpf” just a media concoction?


    March 14, 2016 at 12:11 pm

  16. Quinnipiac poll out today has Trump and Kasich tied in Ohio. The poll was conducted via live phone interviews, so maybe Trump is slightly ahead.

    Great Again

    March 14, 2016 at 12:18 pm

  17. I think after Kasich Endorsed Amnesty over the weekend he is going to lose in Ohio. I bet 25 Shares on Trump in Ohio–I bought them at .27 and the polls really are 50/50 at this point so I think I have a good bet

    Rock Thompsonh

    March 14, 2016 at 5:24 pm

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