March 15 primaries betting opportunities and analysis
Florida: Trump dominates in the polls. But the odds aren’t particularly good (in the sense that I had to risk 88 cents to win 12 cents). I bet some money, however, to demonstrate that I believe in Trump.
Illinois: Trump is ahead in the polls, and I believe that the Rust Belt will be strong for Trump.
North Carolina: North Carolina is like Virginia but without the anti-Trump pro-establishment DC suburbs. Thus I bet on Trump who won in both Virginia and South Carolina.
Ohio: I bet on Kasich here long before the price increase. The two latest polls show Kasich ahead, and Rubio says that his supporters in Ohio should vote for Kasich. Still a good bet even at 73 cents.
Missouri: I saved Missouri for last because it’s the most complicated state to analyze. I previously said it’s too close to call, but today I am betting on Trump, even though he’s now selling for 62 cents for the contracts.
Missouri is geographically in Cruz country, and although the one poll shows that Trump is a few points ahead, Cruz has come in well ahead of the polls in states that are in Cruz country,.
However there are two factors that favor Trump here.
1. Missouri has a completely open primary. A Democrat is free to vote in the Republican primary for Trump. This benefits Trump and hurts Cruz.
2. Missouri has a lot more black people than states where Cruz won. Let’s look at the percent of black people in those states:
The presence of black people makes life a lot worse for blue-collar whites, and unhappy blue-collar whites are where Trump’s heaviest support comes from.
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I believe that the contracts on Kasich to win the nomination will reach their peak value after Rubio drops out. So I am holding on until then.