Lion of the Blogosphere

Super Tuesday II post

Polls in several states close at 7:30 PM EDT.

I’ll put any deep thoughts that take up fewer than 140 characters on my Twitter feed.

Read my predictions from two days ago to see if I was right or not.


All states went as I predicted. Kasich outperformed polls in Ohio. That’s what I always predicted would happen.

Trump was strong in Illinois. I’ve said that Trump would be strong in the Rust Belt (except for Kasich’s home state).

Trump, of course crushed Rubio in Florida, and Rubio has suspended his campaign (which is not the same as dropping out, he could be resurrected at a contested convention).

And Trump squeaked by with a narrow win in Missouri. I predicted Missouri for Trump because it’s an open primary and there are more blacks in Missouri than in states where Cruz won. However Cruz actually outperformed the one poll, demonstrating the Cruz is still very strong in his part of the country, and Cruz is likely to sweep the remaining Great Plains and Interior West states. (Except for AZ and NM. CO is hard to predict, it’s a blue state in a red part of the country.)

Next Tuesday, Trump will win Arizona (a winner-take-all state) and Cruz will win the Utah caucus. In fact, I predict Cruz will win more than 50% of the vote in Utah and thereby win 100% of the delegates.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

March 15, 2016 at 7:02 pm

Posted in Politics

57 Responses

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  1. WTF is up with North Carolina


    March 15, 2016 at 7:44 pm

    • What do you mean?

      Jokah Macpherson

      March 15, 2016 at 10:32 pm

  2. I was hoping Trump would break 50% in a state tonight. He’s close in Florida.


    March 15, 2016 at 7:58 pm

    • BOOM! Trump got 55% in Missouri


      March 15, 2016 at 8:16 pm

      • I spoke too soon. 😦


        March 15, 2016 at 8:41 pm

  3. Ohio. Land of idiots.


    March 15, 2016 at 8:43 pm

    • I believe Ohio is the first state to vote for establishment candidate of both parties this primary season.

      Jay Fink

      March 15, 2016 at 11:36 pm

  4. I think this it! Trump is the next president! I’m going to celebrate with a dosai or a sushi! Congratulations to Trump! Love Trump! The best!


    March 15, 2016 at 8:46 pm

    • Keep it kosher. No shellfish!


      March 15, 2016 at 9:02 pm

      • Awesome three rolls. My Tajik roots for Trump even though I keep telling him that he will get deported. Nice of him. I liked him today.


        March 15, 2016 at 9:25 pm

  5. Ohio-yay let’s vote for our Gov who doesn’t care about illegal immigration.


    March 15, 2016 at 8:49 pm

  6. looks like trump is going to win everything except ohio. sanders is finally out of the game too. this is seriously the best result for trump, even losing ohio is going to help him because it keeps kasich in the game.

    james n.s.w

    March 15, 2016 at 9:06 pm

    • Maybe, but I’d rather Trump went ahead and got all of the delegates he needed to get the nomination. If he had won Ohio, he would be a lot closer, plus as the Lion says, social proof. It would have the other states tumbling like dominoes.

      Mike Street Station

      March 15, 2016 at 9:41 pm

  7. Now that Kasich has actually won a state and is a serious contender to steal the nomination do you think he will invest in a decent haircut? As much fun as the Flowbee haircutting system can be it seems oddly unbecoming for the leader of the free world.


    March 15, 2016 at 9:23 pm

    • Kasich isn’t a contender. his only relevance is in keeping it from becoming a two man race.


      March 15, 2016 at 10:47 pm

    • He only needs, like, 130% of the remaining delegates.


      March 16, 2016 at 1:04 am

  8. I can’t abide the idiocy of TruCons. They are stupider than the worst SJW Prog. At least the Prog knows what side he’s on, even if he doesn’t understand anything about his own positions. The TruCon actively votes against his own interests out of ignorance or habit.



    March 15, 2016 at 9:33 pm

    • TruCons have annoyed me as well. With their “true conservative” and “constitutional conservative” crap. As if most Republicans aren’t also conservatives who support the constitution. The rest just aren’t fanatics.


      March 15, 2016 at 10:52 pm

      • …or think that someone like Cruz; evangelical and conservative, could win a general election given today’s demographics. It’s impossible. As far as winning a general election, it’s Trump or no one.

        Mike Street Station

        March 16, 2016 at 6:29 am

  9. Don’t forget the actual OHIO results – the real vote count is probably a tie or slight Trump lead – going into the computerized vote fraud program “adjustments”


    March 15, 2016 at 9:46 pm

  10. It was always going to be tough to beat Kasich in OH. People love their own reps.

    Still a good night, he won everything except OH and got over 40% in every state he won.

    Otis the Sweaty

    March 15, 2016 at 9:54 pm

  11. What is striking is how low “immigration” ranks as a voter priority in these exit polls.

    There’s a conventional wisdom among his supporters online that the man is as successful as he is because he’s upturned some establishment applecart on the issue, but there’s not a lot of hard evidence to suggest his actual base cares that much one way or another.


    March 15, 2016 at 10:30 pm

  12. The Stupid Christians are trying to steal MO from us!

    Otis the Sweaty

    March 15, 2016 at 10:31 pm

    • Holy shit. Missouri is close. I hope Trump wins by only 3 votes so we can see Cruz cry.


      March 15, 2016 at 10:59 pm

    • You need to stop saying that. If you look at the map, it’s clear that the rural areas (ie, the “stupid” Christians) are voting Trump.


      March 15, 2016 at 11:05 pm

      • Jefferson City, the white city, favors Cruz. The black cities, Kansas City and St. Louis favor Trump.

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        March 15, 2016 at 11:06 pm

      • Your defense of Stupid Christians is contrary to the values of the Revolution.

        Rural areas usually have non-stupid Christians. Stupid Christians tend to be in suburbs. They are vile people.

        The people of the Plains in general are just scum. They will be dealt with after the Revolution.

        Otis the Sweaty

        March 15, 2016 at 11:21 pm

    • I’m familiar with Missouri and the two counties that haven’t reported in yet. I’m calling it for Trump.


      March 15, 2016 at 11:10 pm

  13. MO down to 0.1% lead with 73% counted. That’s 1,000 delegates.

    MO going to end up with a recount.


    March 15, 2016 at 10:58 pm

  14. Nate Silver is saying that tonight’s results make it MORE likely that Trump will get to 1237.

    The GOPe better get on board if they don’t want to feel the wrath of the Revolution.

    Otis the Sweaty

    March 15, 2016 at 11:24 pm

  15. Lion: why is the GOPe so incompetent? Why didn’t they rally around a candidate earlier to take Trump out? I don’t want us to get ahead of ourselves, but it is possible that tonight we passed the stage where Trump can still be stopped and if Trump does end up winning it will really just be a case of the GOPe self destructing.

    Otis the Sweaty

    March 15, 2016 at 11:28 pm

    • Lion: why is the GOPe so incompetent?

      It’s laughable.

      If this is the best they can do in the primary then they should be grateful Trump is hijacking the party because only he will wage the total-war campaign required to defeat Hillary.

      The Undiscovered Jew

      March 15, 2016 at 11:42 pm

    • I assume the GOPe isn’t 100% human scum.

      Suppose you’re a member of the establishment who understands that local accountability is essential to achieving good global results, and that American politics has overshot so far in the anti-nationalist direction that it’s actually inflicting substantial net harm on the world, not just itself. You understand that someone like Trump is needed to end the insanity. But you’re surrounded by donors, etc. who benefit from the status quo, and you’ll have to rebuild your social circle from scratch if you come out openly for Trump. What do you do?

      Well, one option is to engage in virtue signaling, denouncing Trump with your words, to preserve your social position… while subtly working to sabotage the effort to stop him.

      (To anyone who has done this, THANK YOU.)


      March 16, 2016 at 2:52 am

  16. trump’s lead just jumped 1% in MO. st louis city was undercounted and it made cruz’ lead look bigger than it was. i knew trump would have a big edge in that city so was just waiting for the votes to come in there.

    james n.s.w

    March 15, 2016 at 11:32 pm

  17. james n.s.w

    March 15, 2016 at 11:32 pm

  18. Regardless of what happens in Missouri Trump is on track to have either a majority of delegates or be so close that he can cut a deal with Kasich to put him over the top. And Kasich’s delegates can probably be bought cheaply with an offer of some marginal cabinet position.

    Sanders’ proved his Michigan victory was just random luck. After tonight Hillary is basically done with him. Expect her to shift her attention to the general election immediately.

    For the general election, Trump’s huge turnout bodes very well for November. At this point I’d say the last obstacle is for him to short circuit any third party independent, perhaps he should do this by continuing to woo over the establishment so that they can’t unite against him with gathering signatures to get a third party on the ballot in time.

    The Undiscovered Jew

    March 15, 2016 at 11:38 pm

    • Also the Democratic turnout is going to be abysmal. Hillary should do well with Latinos but she really will struggle to turn out SWPLs and blacks. Trump could make serious inroads with both groups as well.

      Otis the Sweaty

      March 15, 2016 at 11:44 pm

    • I can’t stand to look it up but in her victory speech she spoke of “12 million immigrants.” Expect to hear a lot about that. She will go full BLM, anchor babies are “our children,” and so on. I do think she’ll tack populist on trade though. She’s already done that.


      March 15, 2016 at 11:45 pm

  19. Because of you, I won $14 on PredictIt! Not sure how, but it was fun. Actually $39 including the $25 promo.


    March 15, 2016 at 11:43 pm

  20. How difficult will it be for Trump to get 50% of the delegates without Ohio?

    I wonder whether Rubio will endorse someone.


    March 15, 2016 at 11:48 pm

    • According to 538s tracker, Trump needs to be at 719 after tonight to stay on track to 1237. He is instead at 698, 21 short. So he is behind where he should be but still in good shape.

      Otis the Sweaty

      March 16, 2016 at 2:30 am

      • I think that if he is close to 1237, the delegates won’t steal it from him. The Republican Party will be permanently destroyed if he gets 1200 or so delegates and isn’t nominated. But maybe they are delusional enough to think there will ever be a Republican President again if we get 8 years of Hillary.

        The whole thing is a very long shot anyway. Probably the contemptible witch wins the general either way, and we’re screwed. It’s depressing.


        March 16, 2016 at 8:38 am

      • I don’t think they’ll steal it if from he makes it to 1150 or so but I also think it is a real possibility. Remember that after the 1st ballot, all those delegates can technically do whatever they want. It isn’t like the establishment can just give them an order. So for Trump to get the nomination it would require some gigantic show of unity with McConnell, Ryan, Rubio, Haley and a whole host of other establishment figures coming out and endorsing a Trump/Kasich unity ticket. Is that really more likely than coming out with a Cruz-Kasich ticket on the 11th or so ballot?

        I think Trump will get to 1237. But I’m kind of hoping that he doesn’t make it, gets robbed and there is massive violence.

        Otis the Sweaty

        March 16, 2016 at 9:50 am

  21. …follow it on the guardian, which has the best primary coverage imo:

    Hard to believe. And yet my entire body resists clicking on sites like the Guardian/slate/salon/huffpo/atlantic/NYTimes……………….

    Check out Hillary here.

    How about 4 YEARS of that voice. I can’t last 4 minutes listening to that.


    March 15, 2016 at 11:56 pm

    • i’m not talking about their actual perspectives, just their breakdown of the numbers and their interactive maps. and the gifs of the candidates on those cranes are cool.

      james n.s.w

      March 16, 2016 at 12:51 am

    • It sounds like someone just learning how to play the trumpet.


      March 16, 2016 at 1:09 am

  22. “Just sold my 500 Kasich @PredictIt_ shares to win the nomination for 17 cents, that I bought for 4 cents, making a $65 profit.”

    I really like this new accountable-betting angle on your blog, Lion. Converting vague words into hard numbers really grows your stature, and hard-proves that you’re smarter than the people you’re betting against.


    March 16, 2016 at 12:45 am

  23. The natural evolution of your new blog development, Lion, might be to start challenging other bloggers whom you disagree with to make bets with you, at market odds. Nothing is better than a public challenge, resulting in an unambiguous winner and an unambiguous loser.


    March 16, 2016 at 12:49 am

  24. Colorado isn’t having a vote.


    March 16, 2016 at 1:20 am

  25. President Trump! LOL.

    …from 28 Sep 2014


    March 16, 2016 at 1:38 am

  26. Colorado GOP actually cancled the presidential vote part of their caucus this year so they aren’t sending any bound delegates to the convention. Caucus was held March 1st but was largely gnored by media on account of no presidential preference vote being taken. Initial delegates (that I believe will later select the final delegates that go to convention) were selected at that caucus. I imagine Cruz got his people in as organization is a a priority in these type things.


    March 16, 2016 at 1:44 am

  27. Comments from RedState last night:

    “Can somebody please tell me who keeps saying the South was Cruz’ fire wall? And then fire him because that was never ever the case. The land of Billy Reb, Jim Crow, the KKK and all of the other soulless racism in America (which happens to dwell in the Republican Party) was never going to vote for Ted Cruz over Donald Trump. His aweful xenophobia campaign was designed to win the South. I have no clue what area Cruz’ strategy was trying to win.”

    “Cruz was never going to win the South because God, Guns and Freedom isn’t what Southern Evangelicals want to hear about. They want to hear about Mexican Deportations, Dead Muslims and as little Legal Immigration as possible. I Voted today and as far as the eye could see were fat, old stupid bearded racists who Cruz was never ever going to win over.”

    Do you all now understand why the Revolution has a 0 tolerance position towards the TruCon enemy?

    Otis the Sweaty

    March 16, 2016 at 5:01 am

  28. Some of the statistical number-crunchers say Trump’s losing Ohio was the best outcome for him. It keeps Kasich in the race , which will split the anti-Trump vote in future primaries with Cruz.

    If Kasich had dropped out, Cruz would have almost certainly stopped Trump from winning a majority of delegates before the GOP convention. Even now, with Kasich and Cruz splitting the anti-Trump vote, Trump’s chances of winning an absolute majority of delegates are only so-so.

    Mark Caplan

    March 16, 2016 at 8:15 am

  29. It’s pathetic that Trump still can’t pass 50% in any state. This is an unprecedented poor showing for a GOP front-runner. There’s a reason we’re talking about a brokered convention for the first time in 100 years or whatever, and it’s not because Trump is strong.

    Trump has not unified the party, retains enormously high disapproval ratings, and, despite his constant, brazen lying on this matter, polls badly in a head-to-head with Hillary. So despite all this conquering hero rhetoric, he is emerging from the primaries incredibly weak.


    March 16, 2016 at 9:51 am

    • Yeah, truly pathetic that when the vote is being split in 4 ways and he’s under attack by both major political machines and the entirety of the media that he only is pulling in 40-50% of the vote. Total loser.

      Panther of the Blogocube

      March 16, 2016 at 10:03 am

    • Your words are contrary to spirit of the Revolution.

      The Republican party is a party in transition and is extremely divided. You have your “Trumpians”, who are a large plurality. This group recognizes the most important thing is getting rid of the immigrants.

      Then you have your establishment guys. This group is basically just Democrats except they want tax cuts for billionaires and no abortions. Unapologetic cucks.

      Then you have your Christian idiots who just want to elect a Pastor in Chief.

      Then you have your TruCons. They are basically the same as the establishment on policy except that they are anti immigration and anti PC.

      Trump is doing as well as anybody could possibly do in a party filled with such utter morons. He is slowly growing his percentages as people drop out and he moves away from states that don’t have popular incumbents or are stuffed to the max with stupid Christians and TruCons.

      Cruz manages to combine TruCons and Stupid Christians into one bloc which makes him an extremely tough nut to crack. Give Trump time, he will wear Cruz down and then you’ll start seeing him break 50%.

      Otis the Sweaty

      March 16, 2016 at 10:16 am

      • There is very little hard evidence that Trump voters care much about immigration. They constantly rank it as a low priority in exit polls behind the economy, terrorism, etc.


        March 16, 2016 at 12:33 pm

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