Super Tuesday II post
Polls in several states close at 7:30 PM EDT.
I’ll put any deep thoughts that take up fewer than 140 characters on my Twitter feed.
Read my predictions from two days ago to see if I was right or not.
All states went as I predicted. Kasich outperformed polls in Ohio. That’s what I always predicted would happen.
Trump was strong in Illinois. I’ve said that Trump would be strong in the Rust Belt (except for Kasich’s home state).
Trump, of course crushed Rubio in Florida, and Rubio has suspended his campaign (which is not the same as dropping out, he could be resurrected at a contested convention).
And Trump squeaked by with a narrow win in Missouri. I predicted Missouri for Trump because it’s an open primary and there are more blacks in Missouri than in states where Cruz won. However Cruz actually outperformed the one poll, demonstrating the Cruz is still very strong in his part of the country, and Cruz is likely to sweep the remaining Great Plains and Interior West states. (Except for AZ and NM. CO is hard to predict, it’s a blue state in a red part of the country.)
Next Tuesday, Trump will win Arizona (a winner-take-all state) and Cruz will win the Utah caucus. In fact, I predict Cruz will win more than 50% of the vote in Utah and thereby win 100% of the delegates.