Lion of the Blogosphere

Analysis of the analysis

I predicted that Trump would win with 13 delegates to spare, but that is extremely close. What could go wrong, or right, that I didn’t forsee?

(1) There may be 22 delegates from Missouri not yet assigned, so Trump may be starting with more than the 662 delegates I stated in the first post of the series. He may get another 17 delegates according to a link provided by a commenter.

(2) Is Trump really strong in Indiana as I predicted? What if Cruz is strong there like he was in Missouri, and Kasich steals some of Trump’s votes, and Cruz winds up winning the lion’s share of Indiana’s 57 delegates instead of all going to Trump as I predicted?

Indiana is definitely a key race and a must-win for Trump. An upset victory for Cruz in Indiana in which he picks up the lion’s share of delegates would almost surely lead to a contested convention.

(3) The race is going to come down to California. What if I was wrong about Trump being strong there and winning 40 out of 53 districts? There have been no polls from any of the west coast states. And it’s a long way off.

* * *

This web page give Trump 693 delegates currently. That’s 31 more than the CNN figure of 662. 31 extra delegates makes Trump’s path a lot more likely, and means he doesn’t have to do as well in California to win the nomination.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

March 16, 2016 at 8:20 PM

Posted in Politics

31 Responses

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  1. Is there a point at which Cruz is effectively eliminated and drops out? We know Kasich won’t, since he’s only running to screw trump.


    March 16, 2016 at 8:41 PM

    • At the point where he makes a VP deal with Trump. Which probably won’t happen.


      March 16, 2016 at 10:28 PM

  2. Great analysis.Of course, the election always throws a wrench in one or two state. Have you read any news about spending in the Indiana race?

    California is going to be dog-fight, that’s for sure.


    March 16, 2016 at 8:43 PM

  3. Indiana is prole to the bone. Last spring the Republican governor had to call a public health emergency in Scott County after a rash of HIV cases erupted in the midst of a staggering heroin epidemic. Indiana is full of the “white death” that is positively correlated with Trump success.

    Uptown Resident

    March 16, 2016 at 8:48 PM

  4. You’re too pessimistic. *FAR* More voters will rally behind Trump as the strong horse winner, especially in Hollywood California, to avoid a brokered convention, than will rally behind Kasich or late-game Cruz to sabotage the election and let someone like Jeb Bush or Mitt Romney win the nomination (and Hillary the election). There are enough sellout cucks in the establishment to get off the sinking ship before it reaches a point of no return.

    After New York, it will start looking very obvious that even Cruz is a non-viable candidate, so people will hold their noses and get behind Trump. The key here is to notice how rapidly Rubio fell apart, to see how quickly the voters can think and react these days. They have the discipline to overrule the low-information demographic. They’ll do the same thing to Cruz if he doesn’t pull the plug first, and I suspect he will or else he’ll lose his maverick credibility for all of the rest of his political career, that still has decades to go. If he pretends to be serious opposition to Trump until the end, and it ends badly for the outsiders, it will tarnish him with a Benedict Arnold reputation that isn’t a burden to lifelong neocons, so he would be broken goods to both sides from then on. I think he’s too smart to let that happen.

    Kasich was a one-off chauvinistic incident for a single state. He isn’t a viable candidate and everyone everywhere else knows it. He will fall into the single digits very shortly. His nice and respectable Midwestern agreeableness won’t inspire the West Coast. Republicans from that region are the most hard-wired conservatives, and they’ll notice Cruz stumbling by then, so enough will mobilize for Trump to get him through the finish line. Kasich won’t be fooling anyone.


    March 16, 2016 at 9:00 PM

    • I hope you’re right on all of this.


      March 16, 2016 at 10:35 PM

  5. You have been all over this. Thanks for your insightful analysis!

    Gilbert Ratchet

    March 16, 2016 at 9:01 PM

  6. Politico says Trump and Cruz will work together to keep the establishment from anointing someone other than the delegate leader.

    It looks like the GOPe will force Trump and Cruz into a political union, Cruz’s pitiful response to the Chicago riots notwithstanding.

    The Undiscovered Jew

    March 16, 2016 at 9:11 PM

    • I’m not willing to work with Cruz. He is a TruCon and he drags down the ticket. Deal with Kasich or riots. Trump Cruz ticket is totally unacceptable.

      Otis the Sweaty

      March 17, 2016 at 9:28 AM

    • He is a TruCon and he drags down the ticket. Deal with Kasich or riots.

      And I am not willing to deal with Kasich because of his amnesty policy. Although Cruz is pissing me off, I’d still rather he be in a position to takeover from Trump in 8 years than Katshit.

      The Undiscovered Jew

      March 17, 2016 at 6:17 PM

      • I prefer Kucksick.


        March 17, 2016 at 7:16 PM

      • I prefer Kucksick.

        Be wrong, if you insist.

        The Undiscovered Jew

        March 17, 2016 at 8:40 PM

      • No, it’s Kucksick, from the Cuckeye state.


        March 17, 2016 at 9:12 PM

      • No, it’s Kucksick, from the Cuckeye state.


        The Undiscovered Jew

        March 17, 2016 at 11:12 PM

  7. cruz seems to do well where topsoil is good (iowa, kansas, etc) and where agriculture is strong (and where mormons live).

    The topsoil/agriculture thing makes sense–farming has been doing well lately…trump’s best states might be florida and NV….these are states where people move when they have not succeeded in their home states.


    March 16, 2016 at 9:15 PM

    • “…these are states where people move when they have not succeeded in their home states.”

      Never heard that one before.


      March 16, 2016 at 10:06 PM

      • I come up with original ideas


        March 16, 2016 at 11:24 PM

  8. Modafinil?


    March 16, 2016 at 9:17 PM

    • What, as in the Lion is on it?


      March 16, 2016 at 10:00 PM

      • He did have an extremely productive night.


        March 17, 2016 at 8:53 AM

  9. @MissouriGOP release tentative delegate allocation for prez race: 37 for @realDonaldTrump and 15 for @tedcruz


    March 16, 2016 at 9:39 PM

  10. As someone who lives in a bubble in indiana Trump is strong among republicans but so is Cruz. I think Trump edges out Cruz.


    March 16, 2016 at 10:07 PM

  11. This whole thing is jangling my nerves. I wish it were over with already.


    March 16, 2016 at 10:12 PM

  12. […] First, detailed analysis of the remaining primaries suggests Trump will win a majority of delegates,… — so there is a substantial chance the nomination will come down to a party pick at the convention. Second, if the Republican establishment get to pick, their reasoning may lead them to choose someone “exciting” like New Mexico Governnor, Susana Martinez. […]

    The Wentworth Report

    March 16, 2016 at 10:54 PM

  13. Indiana is neocon central.

    The big Wall Street banks have bought the Indiana political and media establishment or years there. I think at one point they even kicked Limbaugh off the air (despite ratings) becuse he wasnt pro middle east wars enough and replaced him with somebody like Dennis Miller or Medved.

    This is the state of Mitch Daniels, a literal cuckold.

    There’s Indianapolis, which is a typical slowly decaying rust belt ton with a large black population, Gary which s the worse black Ghetto in Chicago, & the rest of the state is fields of Corn.

    It will be Trump’s worst state in the Midwest, and Trump already lost Ohio.


    March 16, 2016 at 10:59 PM

  14. I like it! Feels like a pennant race, with Trump’s magic number being something everyone’s rooting for.

    Might add to his appeal and get-out-the-vote even more among white males? Just enough to keep Cruz and Kasich only nipping at his heels.


    March 16, 2016 at 11:32 PM

  15. here is a map of candidate support–don’t know the basis of the map, however:


    March 17, 2016 at 12:58 AM

  16. Found this somewhere. Instructive only to see the smug, corrupt vile faces of GOP-E.

    They are also pretty stupid. I don’t get a feeling of tremendous brain power in this gathering, except for Halperin. 🙂 He’s maybe 115. The rest of them are strictly 100-105.


    March 17, 2016 at 8:16 AM

    • Halperin – Ashkenazi Surname. There’s your answer!


      March 17, 2016 at 10:51 AM

  17. I’m still hung up on the Pennsylvania thing. Only 17 delegates will be technically bound to Trump with the other 54 “unbound”. But I’m not convinced that will be how it plays out. I’m guessing in the media will put all 71 delegates into Trump’s column after he wins the state (just as they’ve put Guam’s delegates into the Trump column even though they’re “unbound” as well). For the next several weeks, everybody will get used to the notion that those delegates are Trump’s.

    So if your scenario plays out, and Trump ends up somewhere near 1230 official delegates, that means he’ll actually be at about 1284 delegates according to the media tabulation. The RNC will have to yank those Pennsylvania delegates from Trump column by exploiting the “unbound” technicality. Think of how that will play out to the voters. Trump will have easily met the 1234 threshold, and then at the convention, the GOPe yanks 54 from his delegate total to drop him just under 1234! It would be perceived as blatantly unfair and undemocratic.

    Democracies need legitimacy to function. Such a move would absolutely guarantee the illegitimacy of the eventual nominee. Trump’s supporters would not show up to the polls in the general election. Democrats would make massive gains in the House and Senate, as well as winning the Presidency.

    The GOPe isn’t insane enough to commit suicide over Trump. They’ll fall in line eventually.

    Great Again

    March 17, 2016 at 11:09 AM

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