Analysis of the analysis
I predicted that Trump would win with 13 delegates to spare, but that is extremely close. What could go wrong, or right, that I didn’t forsee?
(1) There may be 22 delegates from Missouri not yet assigned, so Trump may be starting with more than the 662 delegates I stated in the first post of the series. He may get another 17 delegates according to a link provided by a commenter.
(2) Is Trump really strong in Indiana as I predicted? What if Cruz is strong there like he was in Missouri, and Kasich steals some of Trump’s votes, and Cruz winds up winning the lion’s share of Indiana’s 57 delegates instead of all going to Trump as I predicted?
Indiana is definitely a key race and a must-win for Trump. An upset victory for Cruz in Indiana in which he picks up the lion’s share of delegates would almost surely lead to a contested convention.
(3) The race is going to come down to California. What if I was wrong about Trump being strong there and winning 40 out of 53 districts? There have been no polls from any of the west coast states. And it’s a long way off.
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This web page give Trump 693 delegates currently. That’s 31 more than the CNN figure of 662. 31 extra delegates makes Trump’s path a lot more likely, and means he doesn’t have to do as well in California to win the nomination.