Lion of the Blogosphere

Missouri results

NY Times map of Missouri results.

What’s interesting is that Trump’s support came from the rural counties.

The counties around cities, including Kansas City, Springfield, and the Columbia/Jefferson metropolitan area, all went for Cruz.

Heavily populated St. Louis County was almost tied. You would have thought that the Ferguson stuff would have given Trump a greater boost.

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It should also be noted that despite Missouri having a completely open primary, where even Democrats are free to vote in the Republican primary, Cruz strongly outperformed the one poll which showed that Trump had a strong 7-point lead.

This indicates that Trump is going to lose to Cruz in all of the states where I have predicted Cruz is strong. Those states are: North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska Montana, Utah.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

March 16, 2016 at 10:16 am

Posted in Politics

11 Responses

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  1. Drilling down, you also see that Kasich outperformed in educated affluent metro areas – Columbia (where the University of Missouri is located), along with Kansas City and St. Louis’ suburbs, but NOT in the more prole/evangelical Springfield.


    March 16, 2016 at 10:32 am

  2. The results follow the American Nations well: Trump support was strong in rural areas, but there was a distinct north-south tilt, showing Trump was stronger in the more Scots-Irish sections.

    We see that pattern with the Democratic side as well, to an extent (Hillary stronger in the Scots-Irish areas).

    The western areas of the state approach the “boiled off” section of the country, and went more strongly for Cruz.


    March 16, 2016 at 10:40 am

  3. Lion what do you think about Wisconson?

    The Wisconson a Republican Party is DC establishment controlled, as are its three major Reps Ryan, Walker, and Priebus. Is it more like Michigan (trump territory) or Minnesota (cuck central) or Iowa?

    I don’t think voters there want Cruz or Trump.


    March 16, 2016 at 10:42 am

  4. Some observations:

    (1) Cruz knocked it out of the park in Kansas and Iowa, dramatically outperforming expectations in those places. He also did very well in Arkansas. All of those states share long borders with Missouri.

    (2) Cruz has strong support among churchgoers. Churchgoers tend to vote at higher rates.

    (3) Democrats could also play spoiler, in an open primary, right? An open primary also means that the stop Trump Democrats could show up, no?


    March 16, 2016 at 10:42 am

    • “An open primary also means that the stop Trump Democrats could show up, no?”

      I can’t imagine Democrats voting for Cruz in order to stop Trump.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      March 16, 2016 at 10:44 am

    • “(2) Cruz has strong support among churchgoers. Churchgoers tend to vote at higher rates.”

      Maybe the Cruz “sex scandal” that has been bubbling under the radar will explode in time to offend these churchgoers so they can stop ruining my country’s future with their stupid Cruz support.


      March 16, 2016 at 11:05 am

  5. Yep. I think your prediction of the Cruz states is about right – particularly with Rubio now out. It doesn’t really matter though. Trump will run the table in the remaining Northeast states: New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Delaware and Maryland. He’ll also win Indiana and West Virginia for sure.

    Wisconsin might be interesting. There’s enough Scandinavians there that it could play out more like Minnesota. Although it’s strongly prole (and therefore pro-Trump) along the Lake.

    Does anybody have a sense on how Arizona, New Mexico and California will go? Trump’s strong showing in Nevada may be an indicator, but it’s tough to say whether that was due to general demographic appeal, or the fact that the Trump brand is powerful in Las Vegas and Vegas pretty much IS Nevada. In general, Trump does well among whites who live in close proximity to minorities.

    Great Again

    March 16, 2016 at 10:44 am

    • Arizona goes to Trump. There are a lot of old retirees there (like Florida which was big for Trump). The former governor Jan Brewer and Sheriff Joe Arpaio both endorsed Trump. Also a lot of people people from Chicago move to Arizona, and the Chicago area was strong for Trump.

      New Mexico will probably go to Trump but not as strongly as Arizona, and there will be a three-way split between Trump, Kasich and Cruz.

      California had better go to Trump or Trump is in big trouble. If Kasich somehow manages to pick up steam between now and California, maybe he could do well there.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      March 16, 2016 at 11:18 am

    • Northern California (where I live) will, I believe, favor Trump. It’s kind of like a Northeast state plopped along the West Coast. The place to be worried about is Southern California. It’s got a lot of TruCons and whacko religiosity. Unfortunately it’s the more populated half of the state. Orange County will surely go Cruz. Hopefully concerns about immigration and jobs will dislodge everyone else’s mind from abstractions about true constitutionalism and whose halo is brighter.


      March 16, 2016 at 11:56 am

  6. Missouri is really quite redneck, even within the St. Louis and Kansas City metropolitan areas. St. Louis County and Jackson County contain a few toney suburbs, but also alot of white prole rednecky exurbs.

    I predicted here that Cruz would win Missouri without problems and am actually quite surprised Trump did as well as he did.

    There is an argument that the most redneck states in the country are found in the upper South and border states. Everyone thinks of the deep South, but remember those states have large African-American populations. Upper south and border states are mostly rural white. But Virginia and North Carolina both have lots of Yankee transplants, plus the whole “Tidewater” area/ culture. Structurally, Missouri is similar to Tennessee, lots of rural low income white areas with two mid-sized cities.


    March 16, 2016 at 11:44 am

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