Lion of the Blogosphere

New York analysis

New York goes after Wisconsin.

The New York Republican delegate rules can be found here.

Trump won 49% in Massachusetts, and that was before Rubio and Carson dropped out. In a three way race, in a state where Cruz will have only minimal support, surely Trump can win more than 50% of the vote.

By winning 50% of the vote, Trump wins the 14 at-large district.

If Trump wins 50% in half of the congressional districts, and wins the other half with less than 50%, and we give the odd district to Trump, that gives Trump an additional 68 delegates to Trump and 13 delegates to Kasich.

So the final result is 82 delegates for Trump and 13 for Kasich.

* * *

Trump needs 1237 delegates to clinch the majority and win the nomination.

Today he has 662 (according to the CNN election center) .

After he wins 58 in winner-take-all Arizona, 0 out of 40 in Utah, and 36 out of 42 in Wisconsin, and 77 out of 89 in New York, he is at 833 delegates.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

March 16, 2016 at 6:01 pm

Posted in Uncategorized

6 Responses

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  1. Otis the Sweaty and his NYC pan-white Holy League are on the ground and preparing to roll into action. The board is set, the pieces are moving…


    March 16, 2016 at 6:15 pm

  2. destructure

    March 16, 2016 at 6:23 pm

  3. trump has another 25 or so coming from MO


    March 16, 2016 at 7:07 pm

  4. […] how about this prediction I wrote on March 16 about New York State: “the final result is 82 delegates for Trump and 13 for […]

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