Northeast Super Tuesday analysis
On April 26, the following five northeastern states vote: Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island.
I predict Trump wins all five of these states, but how many delegates will he pick up?
In my previous post, I predicted that, up to this point, Trump would have 833 delegates, and he needs 1237 to win.
If Trump wins 50%, this becomes a winner-take-all state. Trump won 49% in Massachusetts, and that was before Rubio and Carson dropped out of the race. I call this 51% for Trump, and Trump picks up all 28 delegates.
Winner-take-all, so Trump wins all 16 delegates. (That’s only 7 more than he won in the Northern Mariana Islands which isn’t even a real state.)
Maryland works like Wisconsin. The winner of the state wins 14 at-large delegates, and the winner of each of 8 congressional districts wins all 3 for that district.
I predict Trump will win Maryland, but the two congressional districts around the DC area will go for Kasich instead of Trump. That means that Trump wins 32 delegates and Kasich wins 6 delegates.
Pennsylvania only has 17 at-large bound delegates, awarded on a winner-take-all basis. Trump wins these.
The other 54 delegates are not bound. That sucks for Trump.
All delegates are assigned proportionally. I give Trump 9 of the 19 delegates.
Trump picks up another 102 delegates. So now he has 935, still quite a bit short of the 1237 he needs to win.