Lion of the Blogosphere

Northeast Super Tuesday analysis

On April 26, the following five northeastern states vote: Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island.

I predict Trump wins all five of these states, but how many delegates will he pick up?

In my previous post, I predicted that, up to this point, Trump would have 833 delegates, and he needs 1237 to win.


If Trump wins 50%, this becomes a winner-take-all state. Trump won 49% in Massachusetts, and that was before Rubio and Carson dropped out of the race. I call this 51% for Trump, and Trump picks up all 28 delegates.


Winner-take-all, so Trump wins all 16 delegates. (That’s only 7 more than he won in the Northern Mariana Islands which isn’t even a real state.)


Maryland works like Wisconsin. The winner of the state wins 14 at-large delegates, and the winner of each of 8 congressional districts wins all 3 for that district.

I predict Trump will win Maryland, but the two congressional districts around the DC area will go for Kasich instead of Trump. That means that Trump wins 32 delegates and Kasich wins 6 delegates.


Pennsylvania only has 17 at-large bound delegates, awarded on a winner-take-all basis. Trump wins these.

The other 54 delegates are not bound. That sucks for Trump.

Rhode Island

All delegates are assigned proportionally. I give Trump 9 of the 19 delegates.


Trump picks up another 102 delegates. So now he has 935, still quite a bit short of the 1237 he needs to win.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

March 16, 2016 at EDT pm

Posted in Politics

4 Responses

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  1. That sucks about Pennsylvania. Looks like North Dakota (Curly Haugland’s troll kingdom) is the only other state that allows the party bosses to steal a significant number of delegates from the voters.


    March 16, 2016 at EDT pm

  2. Winning California and New Jersey, and taking 50+% in NY, then gives him 1254.


    March 16, 2016 at EDT pm

  3. I was watching Ted Cruz and it just occurred to me that his mouth moves like Clutch Cargo’s.


    March 16, 2016 at EDT pm

  4. I just moved away from Maryland. I think that you are being too optimistic. Nearly all of the people live in metro areas. The bright side is that many of them are voting democrat. The sparsely populated west is Trump country. The peninsula probably is too. As for the rest, well the districts are gerrymandered so who knows.


    March 16, 2016 at EDT pm

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