Lion of the Blogosphere

Oregon analysis

The Oregon delegate rules are here.

The Oregon primary is on May 17.

Oregon is the first west coast state to vote. I think that Oregon will be Kasich’s strongest state. If he’s still a viable candidate by this time. Remember, we are now at two months after he won Ohio, and Kasich hasn’t won any other state and he only picked up a tiny number of delegates.

Oregon has full proportional allocation. I will pessimistically give Trump 35% of the vote and he picks up 10 out of 28 delegates. In the previous post, I had Trump at 1,026 delegates after winning West Virginia. So he picks up another 10 delegates and is now at 1,036.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

March 16, 2016 at 7:04 pm

Posted in Politics

One Response

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  1. I don’t think so. Oregon Republicans historically were regarded as well to the left of the national GOP’s center of gravity (think Tom McCall, Mark Hatfield, Bob Packwood), but as the state has drifted to the left due to the influx of Californians and the desertion of the GOP by the country club set embarrassed by the evangelicals and blue collar types now making some noise, the Oregon GOP is far more conservative than it used to be.

    And of course, this, together with universal voter registration enacted by the legislature this year and all mail ballots, under which no voter actually has to prove her existence, has resulted in complete Dem domination of the state. No Republican has been elected governor since 1982 and no Republican presidential candidate has carried the state since 1984.


    March 17, 2016 at 7:48 pm

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