Lion of the Blogosphere

Remaining winner-take-all states

The following states will go to Cruz:

Montana 27
South Dakota 29
Nebraska 36
Utah* 40

Total: 132

The following states will go to Trump:

Arizona: 58
New Jersey 51
Delaware 16

Total: 125

This math does NOT look good for Trump. Trump is going to have to win the lion’s share of delegates in the non-winner-take-all states in order to get a majority for the convention. Which Trump won’t be able to do unless he breaks that 50% barrier.

*Utah is only a winner-take-all state if someone wins more than 50% of the caucus vote. But I predict that Cruz will do that. Cruz is strong in caucuses and Trump is weak with Mormons. The Mormons also liked Rubio, but he has “suspended” his campaign so his votes (among Mormons) will mostly go to Cruz.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

March 16, 2016 at 10:38 am

Posted in Politics

25 Responses

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  1. has anyone crunched the numbers on just what trump needs to hit 1237?

    james n.s.w

    March 16, 2016 at 10:40 am

    • 54%


      March 16, 2016 at 5:46 pm

  2. Meh, fine with me. Riots it is. The Revolution was always destined to take place on the streets, not in the voting booth.

    Otis the Sweaty

    March 16, 2016 at 10:44 am

  3. Interesting that South Dakota gets more delegates than Montana. I guess it has something to do with Montana’s penchant for electing Democrats to Congress.

    (Also interesting that both get almost a third of what Texas does, though a tad less surprising.)


    March 16, 2016 at 10:45 am

    • I think people underestimate just how sparsely populated Montana and the Dakotas are. Montana is barely above 1 mil for that massive amount of land and the Dakotas are in the 3/4 mil range. SD gets more delegates because it has the higher pop density of the 3. There’s A LOT of vast, wide open spaces out there

      G VIC

      March 16, 2016 at 1:20 pm

      • SD gets more delegates because both houses of the legislature, the governor, and both senators are Republicans. Montana elects a lot of Democrats because its mountainous western end is eclectic and not True Con. They have to be rough hewn rugged individualist gun toting western Democrats, though.


        March 16, 2016 at 4:47 pm

      • Former Democratic MT Governor Schweitzer said you could win in MT running in favor of gay marriage, but you’d have to be prepared to bar fight your way across the state. That’s just not possible in Dakotas.


        March 16, 2016 at 4:48 pm

      • I understand you now. Colorado still has that element of folks, albeit watered down.

        G VIC

        March 16, 2016 at 7:48 pm

  4. Trump is doing well enough in “congressional-district-winner-take-all” states like Missouri. (Critically, California is such a state.) Cruz wins by huge margins in areas with a high concentration of true believers, but Trump is basically winning everything else by default.

    I think Trump is on track to 1237.


    March 16, 2016 at 10:54 am

    • Yes, that is Trump’s route to a majority.

      CA, MD, WI, CT, IN, DE are Trump states that are WTA by district. Trump will win about 80% of the delegates in those states. Urban north CA isn’t going to Cruz because Republicans there are pro-gay rights. South CA cares too intensely about immigration to compromise.

      New York is winner take all as long as Trump has 50%. He should reach that easily.


      March 16, 2016 at 4:52 pm

  5. I don’t know how we shake these Midwestern knuckleheads out of their GOPe complacency.


    March 16, 2016 at 11:03 am

    • Midwesterners are scum

      Otis the Sweaty

      March 16, 2016 at 11:35 am

    • Transplant them to areas with “vibrant diversity” and they’ll come around. But why would they go there in the first place?

      G VIC

      March 16, 2016 at 1:21 pm

  6. You forgot Maryland.

    There are a bunch more states that are winner take all for the state delegates plus winner take all for the congressional districts. These states could turn out much like Illinois and South Carolina, where Trump walked away with all or nearly all of the delegates. States like this include Indiana, California and Pennsylvania. (Pennsylvania’s delegates are “officially” unbound, but they’ll unofficially go to the winner of the congressional district. You don’t go through the expense of having a primary and then ignore the result.) Connecticut is winner take all above 50%, and if Massachusetts is a guide, Trump could get to 50% with Rubio out.

    Great Again

    March 16, 2016 at 11:04 am

  7. OT: Obama announces WHITE MALE Supreme Court nomination. But… Harvard Law. Naturally. I guess we aren’t allowed anything else.


    March 16, 2016 at 11:06 am

  8. Montana might be a more closely contested state, like Missouri. Politically it’s different from the other three states likely to go Cruz; Obama came within 3 points of winning it in 2008, and thus far Cruz has failed in every state that’s ever wavered in a recent national election except for Iowa. Trump also won most of the Idaho counties bordering Montana, which is important because (a) western Montana is the more populated half of the state, and (b) Idaho was a closed primary like Montana is going to be.


    March 16, 2016 at 11:08 am

    • If Smasher Sloan were still alive he would have definitely endorsed Trump, which in all likelihood would have given Montana to the Donald.

      Lewis Medlock

      March 16, 2016 at 11:41 am

  9. One thing about the Trump losing at a contested convention scenario, is that we wouldn’t be having these discussions if the GOPe wasn’t determined to stop Trump no matter what. Yes, the rule is 50% plus on the first ballot. However, I’ve been through umpteem presidential primary contests by now, and there is always pressure from the party establishment and media for the other candidates and voters to “get in line” behind the front-runner once the front-runner has started winning most of the primaries, with the explanation given that the party has to now concentrate on winning the general election.

    The Democrats particularly have a penchant for this, the front-runner only needs to build up a very slim lead for the calls to go out for everyone to rally behind him or her. The Republican is less of a top down party, but really if any candidate other than Trump had gotten the same primary and caucus results at this point, every other candidate would have dropped out. You wouldn’t be seeing these brokered convention scenarios.


    March 16, 2016 at 11:51 am

    • Exactly, unprecedented times. As we’ve seen all along, past experience has no guarantee on future results.

      G VIC

      March 16, 2016 at 1:24 pm

  10. Trump may get 1237 and STILL the math may not be good for him.

    Mike Street Station

    March 16, 2016 at 11:57 am

    • Curly Haugland has been beating this drum for a while. Here’s an article from March 11, 2014 in which he bragged that the current RNC rules made it impossible for anybody to win delegate majorities in eight states, thereby meaning that the delegates themselves would pick the nominee:

      That article also reveals that Haugland is a TruCon who hates the idea of voters selecting the party nominee. He seems to spend all his time trying to ferret out ways in the rulebook to steal away the voters’ pick.

      “I don’t like people ordering my meals for me, I like to make my own choices. I don’t like people nominating my candidate for me. Political parties are private associations,” he says. “The progressives have long had the idea that the voters should choose the candidates for office. That’s simply not found to be a proper understanding of the role of political parties. We’re not a direct democracy, we’re representative … We can’t all participate directly.”


      March 16, 2016 at 1:08 pm

    • I don’t see where it says that Curly believes they can deny Trump the nomination if he gets 1,237+ pledged delegates. I do see him saying that the party will decide in the event that Trump gets fewer than 1,237 delegates.

      Of course, no matter how many delegates Trump gets, they could still deny him the nomination if they choose to do so by changing the rules so as to release all delegates from their pledges before the 1st round.

      Greg Pandatshang

      March 16, 2016 at 4:12 pm

  11. WIKIPEDIA consider Cal a winner take all:
    California 3 10 159 172 0 172 Primary (closed) Winner-take-all Winner-take-all Jun 7 Slate Jun 7 Slate N/A


    March 16, 2016 at 12:45 pm

  12. to the lion what planet are you from? i like your predictions, are you nostradamus? i truly believe trump will take most of those states, will only loose in utah and i’m willing to bet you seriously on this you maggot. trump will be next president so stop playing god asshole!

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