The Final Super Tuesday analysis
On June 7, the last 5 Republican primaries are held
California is split winner-take all by congressional district.
There are 53 congressional districts with 3 delegates.
There are an additional 13 at-large delegates.
Let’s say that Trump wins the 13 at-large delegates and also wins 40 of the congressional districts.
This gives Trump an additional 133 delegates
Montana is a winner-take-all state.
Cruz wins all 27 delegates.
New Jersey is a winner-take-all state.
Trump wins all 51 delegates.
New Mexico has full proportional allocation.
I don’t think Trump is very strong here, but it doesn’t matter much if he wins or loses by a few percentage points. Let’s say that he picks up 38% of the 24 delegates, for a win of 9 delegates.
South Dakota is a winner-take-all state.
Cruz wins all 29 delegates.
Trump wins a total of 193 delegates on this last primary day.
I predicted in my previous post that Trump would have 1,057 delegates coming into the day.
Picking up another 193, Trump now has 1250 delegates.
Trump has exceeded the 1,237 delegates he needs to win the nomination by 13 delegates.