Lion of the Blogosphere

The Final Super Tuesday analysis

On June 7, the last 5 Republican primaries are held


California is split winner-take all by congressional district.

There are 53 congressional districts with 3 delegates.

There are an additional 13 at-large delegates.

Let’s say that Trump wins the 13 at-large delegates and also wins 40 of the congressional districts.

This gives Trump an additional 133 delegates


Montana is a winner-take-all state.

Cruz wins all 27 delegates.

New Jersey

New Jersey is a winner-take-all state.

Trump wins all 51 delegates.

New Mexico

New Mexico has full proportional allocation.

I don’t think Trump is very strong here, but it doesn’t matter much if he wins or loses by a few percentage points. Let’s say that he picks up 38% of the 24 delegates, for a win of 9 delegates.

South Dakota

South Dakota is a winner-take-all state.

Cruz wins all 29 delegates.


Trump wins a total of 193 delegates on this last primary day.

I predicted in my previous post that Trump would have 1,057 delegates coming into the day.

Picking up another 193, Trump now has 1250 delegates.

Trump has exceeded the 1,237 delegates he needs to win the nomination by 13 delegates.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

March 16, 2016 at EDT pm

Posted in Politics

2 Responses

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  1. There are apparently no recent polls in California. The last poll of the Republican race in California was in late December. In that poll Cruz was slightly ahead of Trump. California Republican’s usually are very conservative. The California Republican primary is also closed. Only registered Republicans can vote. (The Democratic primary is open to independents, but not the Republican).


    March 16, 2016 at EDT pm

    • Those very conservative Republicans looked up to Reagan. They will choose Trump over a dead-weight Cruz and thus contested convention.

      I’m going to go out now and say that closed primaries are now in fact a bonus to Trump. Registered party members are known to be smarter and more engaged than independents. They know when it’s time to look at the math and make rational decisions. Most of them are not the trolls who voted for Kasich.


      March 17, 2016 at EDT am

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