When will Trump reach 50%?
A commenter (who appears not to like Trump) writes:
It’s pathetic that Trump still can’t pass 50% in any state. This is an unprecedented poor showing for a GOP front-runner. There’s a reason we’re talking about a brokered convention for the first time in 100 years or whatever, and it’s not because Trump is strong.
As I previously stated, I originally predicted that Trump would indeed pass 50%, because after winning early contests he’d gain social proof and voters would want to associate with a winner. That’s what usually happens.
However, this year there has been an unprecedented attack on the front-runner by both the mainstream media and the establishment of his own party. That is clearly hurting him. There is an assumption out there that it hasn’t hurt him because his poll numbers haven’t dropped, but under normal circumstances his poll numbers would have risen substantially as he won primaries and other candidates dropped out.
It’s not too late for fellow Republicans to bury the hatchet and start supporting him. But it looks to me like too many establishment Republicans would prefer to give away the election to Hillary than support Donald Trump.
And rallying around Cruz to stop Trump would also give away the election to Hillary. There’s no way that a beta-male-looking fire-and-brimstone TrueCon preacher would have any appeal to independents, white blue-collar Democrats, or even the moderate wing of the Republican Party. Republicans know that too. If Cruz winds up winning the nomination (a likely possibility if Trump has less than a majority of the delegates), it means that a lot of the GOPe preferred to lose with Cruz (and probably lose Senate and House seats as part of that losing bargain) than possibly win with Trump.