Lion of the Blogosphere

When will Trump reach 50%?

A commenter (who appears not to like Trump) writes:

It’s pathetic that Trump still can’t pass 50% in any state. This is an unprecedented poor showing for a GOP front-runner. There’s a reason we’re talking about a brokered convention for the first time in 100 years or whatever, and it’s not because Trump is strong.

As I previously stated, I originally predicted that Trump would indeed pass 50%, because after winning early contests he’d gain social proof and voters would want to associate with a winner. That’s what usually happens.

However, this year there has been an unprecedented attack on the front-runner by both the mainstream media and the establishment of his own party. That is clearly hurting him. There is an assumption out there that it hasn’t hurt him because his poll numbers haven’t dropped, but under normal circumstances his poll numbers would have risen substantially as he won primaries and other candidates dropped out.

It’s not too late for fellow Republicans to bury the hatchet and start supporting him. But it looks to me like too many establishment Republicans would prefer to give away the election to Hillary than support Donald Trump.

And rallying around Cruz to stop Trump would also give away the election to Hillary. There’s no way that a beta-male-looking fire-and-brimstone TrueCon preacher would have any appeal to independents, white blue-collar Democrats, or even the moderate wing of the Republican Party. Republicans know that too. If Cruz winds up winning the nomination (a likely possibility if Trump has less than a majority of the delegates), it means that a lot of the GOPe preferred to lose with Cruz (and probably lose Senate and House seats as part of that losing bargain) than possibly win with Trump.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

March 16, 2016 at 10:03 am

Posted in Politics

20 Responses

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  1. Who could not want the fun of a brokered convention? Doesn’t anyone remember the Dumbs in Chicago in 1968? Who will play James Daley?

    bob sykes

    March 16, 2016 at 10:15 am

  2. It’s silly to compare Trump to other front-runners because typically the Establishment will have gotten behind the clear front-runner by now. Most of the financially-supported competitors would have dropped out leaving only the quixotic Ron Paul/Mike Huckabee types.

    It’s not “pathetic” that Trump can’t get to 50%. It’s pathetic that the entire Establishment, media, and donor class have worked around the clock to prevent Trump from winning and they still can’t stop him.

    I think it’s likely that Trump will start breaking 50% now that Rubio is out. Nobody in the Northeast will vote for Cruz, so as long as Trump can trounce Kasich handily, he could win those states 55-35-10.

    Great Again

    March 16, 2016 at 10:51 am

  3. 100% correct. And related from Bloomberg: “Republicans Rejected Elite Agenda Along With Rubio”; “Trump Says He’ll Skip Debate, Warns of Possible Convention Riots”

    It appears some GOPe guys know Trump isn’t winning based on name-recognition, or unPC language. He’s winning on policy. That only took, what, 9 months to figure out?

    Why these idiots didn’t offer amnesty in exchange for less legal immigration (and a Canadian style points system) shows how committed they are to open borders lunacy.


    March 16, 2016 at 10:58 am

  4. This is a comment I wrote at Steve Sailer’s site way back on August 11, 2015, in response to somebody who thought the GOP’s establishment would eventually reconcile themselves to Trump because it’s in the party’s long-term interest:

    “You’re confusing GOP elite members’ self-interest with party success, rather than what’s actually good for them as individuals. They succeed if they keep getting hired as consultants, as pontificators at think tanks, as party staffers, and hold onto elective office in a few solid Red fiefdoms that would choke rather than elect a Democrat. The current ideological configuration of the Republican Party works beautifully for them, because it has placed them at the top of the heap. A new realignment of the GOP’s values would mean (for most of them) their displacement, which is why guys like Krauthammer are so personally enraged by Trump’s candidacy.

    “To illustrate from across the pond, look at how David Cameron and his allies were so staunchly opposed to the exit of leftist Scotland from the UK, even though objectively it would have been great for the Conservative Party. Yes, great for the Tories …. but absolutely terrible for Cameron and his cronies, since in a UK without Scotland, Cameron would make no sense as a national party leader. Both the Labour and Conservative parties would have moved rightward to fill up the ideological vacuum caused by Scotland’s exit, but it’s much harder for individual politicians to make that swing and survive voter scrutiny.

    “This is why political realignments are difficult to achieve artificially. Most political realignments, like the Reagan Revolution or Obama’s landslide victories, are more or less passively riding social forces that were operating naturally. Reagan essentially ran out the Goldwater coalition, which by 1980 was robust enough (through Boomers and late Silents coming of age) to achieve what it could not in 1964; Obama’s coalition is just McGovern’s, fattened up by gentrification and the 1965 Immigration Act.

    “When you don’t have the luxury of riding natural population growth in constituencies that are already disposed to favor you, you’re fighting your own elected leaders, your donors, your partisan press, your think tank ideologues, just to smash the table and build a coalition that would actually win in a demographic environment vastly changed from when that original group came to power within the party.

    “That’s extremely difficult to do, which is why Trump will likely fail, even if he wins the nomination. The best case scenario may be that Trump will lay the groundwork for a future realignment in 2032 or 2052, after the current party bosses and strategists have died off.”


    March 16, 2016 at 11:27 am

    • 2052??? 2032??? therer’ll be no america at either of those dates.

      james n.s.w

      March 16, 2016 at 1:59 pm

    • The country would be through a collapse by 2032


      March 16, 2016 at 3:47 pm

      • There’s a lot of ruin in a nation.

        If Trump loses but succeeds in establishing a working class consciousness (or those who follow him do, by taking his main causes but with more rhetorical finesse) then the GOP will have finally found themselves a growing demographic, because the losers of outsourcing and globalization are only going to get larger. Democrats fear this; it’s a big reason why they so zealously whip up culture war issues involving race and gender, so as to keep the losers of globalization from unifying.


        March 16, 2016 at 6:11 pm

      • “working class consciousness ”

        Karl Marx would be voting for Trump, no doubt.

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        March 16, 2016 at 6:29 pm

      • He definitely favored Lincoln back when the cheap labor lobbyists of the 1860s were trying to preserve slavery.


        March 16, 2016 at 6:41 pm

  5. Most serious political observers in the NYT, Washington Post, FOX, MSNBC, etc have reached the exact opposite of your conclusion, Lion.

    The GOP-E has NOT, in fact, gone after Trump with any real vigor until VERY recently. A supposed anti-Trump ad blitz has been long promised but never delivered. And most attacks that have been leveled have been of the mild “you’re-not-a-perfect-conservative” sort, rather than harsh attacks on his various scam businesses, personal finances, and so on.

    The media, for its part, has given Trump endless coverage. By some estimates as much as 70% of all MSM coverage of the GOP race has been Trump coverage, including live, unbroken coverage of his rallies. The period in which Trump was “not taken seriously” by the press lasted all of what, five minutes? Talk to the Cruz and Rubio campaigns and I guarantee you a pro-Trump media bias will be among their biggest gripes. Not necessarily “pro-Trump” in the sense of “blindly favorable to Trump” but pro-Trump in the sense of “Trump news is always worth covering at the expense of everything else.”

    At some point the candidate himself has to be blamed for something. He cannot unify the party. He has divided the party like no one else. He has proven a disaster for the Republican Party. If you hate the Republican Party and want someone to ruin it, fine, but then don’t be surprised when that ruined party proceeds to crash and burn in November.


    March 16, 2016 at 12:31 pm

    • Trump gets the media coverage because he brings eyeballs to the screen. Every time there is a debate or a rally people tune in by the millions. Those eyeballs represent millions of dollars in advertising revenue.

      And why does he bring eyeballs to the screen? His positions on trade and immigration. Nobody wants to admit that Trumps ascendancy is entirely the result of substance.

      The rest of the Republican slate could’ve easily neutralized Trumps message by adopting his positions on trade and immigration, but they didn’t. The Repubs are such stupid True Believers in free trade and mass Democrat voter immigration that they allowed an outsider to spot an undervalued policy position.


      March 16, 2016 at 4:24 pm

      • Look at an exit poll. People are voting Trump because of his personality. They like that he speaks his mind and is “politically incorrect.” No one cares about his positions on trade, immigration, or anything else.

        A lot of people watched his stupid TV show but no one intelligent did. All these intelligent people are trying to find a high-minded explanation for why a stupid reality TV star is proving an effective presidential candidate. We always knew this day would come. Trump was just the first celeb with a big enough ego to try.


        March 17, 2016 at 1:05 am

  6. I’m not following the delegate counts closely, but I read somewhere that Trump is now the only one left for which it is mathematically possible to get majority. This means we have 2 candidates staying in the race who cannot possibly win under normal circumstances. How typical is this?

    I would think that if mathematically eliminated candidates dropped out as soon as they became so, Trump would be at 50% in primaries and in national polls. Is this sort of strategic sabotage of the front runner unprecedented?


    March 16, 2016 at 12:49 pm

  7. Who cares about reaching 50%? It’s a 3 man race, and any of the rest of these are winner take all.

    Trump needs 597 delegates to win. He can do it just by sweeping 10 winner take all states and then getting a bunch from New York.

    Winner-take-all states he could win

    California 172
    Pennsylvania 71
    Arizona 58
    New Jersey 51
    Indiana 57
    Wisconsin 42
    Delaware 16
    Maryland 38
    Connecticut 25

    That’s 530. New York has 95 delegates, it’s winner take most. If he gets 67 of them, he wins.Which of those states does he lose? Maybe Indiana to Cruz?

    If he does what I said, he won’t need anything from

    New Mexico
    West Virginia
    South Dakota
    North Dakota
    Rhode Island

    The WTA states are most important obviously. I don’t think he’s weak in any of them.


    March 16, 2016 at 1:10 pm

    • CA, PA, IN, WI, MD are not WTA states. Their delegates will be divided by district.
      NY is winner take all only if the winner gets over 50% which Trump will.


      March 16, 2016 at 4:40 pm

    • Try reading and other states.


      March 16, 2016 at 4:41 pm

  8. Trump will break 50% either in Arizona on 22 March or in New York on 19 April. Arizona is fertile Trump territory, but winner-take-all so Trump doesn’t have to work too hard.

    New York is Trump’s home state and in the heart of his key region. It has a 50% threshold for winner-take-all that Trump has to meet to get a comfortable majority. He’ll be investing there.

    Oddly, there is only one contest between Arizona and New York. Wisconsin is 5 April. Trump will win almost all the delegates there but not a majority of the vote. Probably he’ll have 43-48%.


    March 16, 2016 at 4:37 pm

  9. I disagree with Lion here a bit. Establishment Republicans actually think Cruz can win. They are always citing polls which show that he does better against Clinton than Trump does. They actually expect a groundswell of popular support for Cruz after the conventions are over, and think Clinton is a weak candidate. I get this impression from National Review Online mostly, articles and comments.

    March 16, 2016 at 6:17 pm

    • The GOPe doesn’t pay as much attention to NRO as you think they do.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      March 16, 2016 at 6:30 pm

      • I admit I’m a little hazy with the whole GOPe thing… is there a working definition? A list of people?

        March 16, 2016 at 9:44 pm

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