Lion of the Blogosphere

Will Susana Martinez be the Republican nominee?

The case for Ted Cruz

Let’s say that Trump reaches the convention with less than a majority of the delegates. If the GOPe takes the attitude that they will let the votes fall where they may, I think it’s very likely that Cruz wins the nomination. I suspect that the majority of delegates like Cruz, and they will be predisposed to vote for him because he would be the natural anti-Trump choice given that he did second-best in winning delegates. The GOPe may hate him, but they control the party through their access to rich donors and their influence with elected politicians and the mainstream media. The foot soldiers of the Party tend to be TrueCon anti-abortion types, and I think the delegates will be disproportionately made up of foot-soldier types.

But surely the GOPe would see that a Cruz nomination would be a disaster, right?

It’s hard to imagine Trump not having a strong plurality of the delegates. Any result but a Trump nomination will cause his very loyal followers to feel that the election was stolen from him, and a large number of them will sit out on election day, or may even vote Democratic to spite the Republican Party establishment. The GOPe will expect Trump to be a sore loser about it and encourage such behavior.

Meanwhile, Cruz is a candidate who only appeals to the evangelical TrueCon base. It’s hard to imagine any swing voters swinging for him, and his hardcore fire-and-brimstone anti-abortion conservatism might even turn off moderate Republicans who voted for McCain and Romney.

The mainstream media has been giving Cruz a pass because they hate Trump more. But once Trump is gone, they will go full-throttle against Cruz, and if Trump is Hitler, they will paint Cruz as Mussolini.

And on top of all that, he was born in Canada. Is he even legally qualified to run? Do you think Hillary would not use that against him? Hillary will do anything to win the election.

The GOPe hates Cruz, so I doubt they will feel any personal motivation to overlook his flaws.

The case for some other white male

Why would the GOPe encourage a contested convention (by not supporting Trump now and helping him to win a majority) only to give the nomination to Cruz who is just as bad as Trump? No, clearly they would want to use a contested convention to nominate a candidate who they view as being better than either Trump or Cruz.

Of course there’s an assumption here that they have the power to do that. The GOPe has proven itself pretty incompetent during the last year, so I wouldn’t necessarily assume it’s a 100% given that they have the power to thwart Cruz and convince the delegates that they should rally around someone else. But assuming that they do, or at least that they might try to do that, what’s their game plan?

Three white males have been commonly floated around as possible nominees: John Kasich (because he’s the last “establishment lane” candidate left standing), Mitt Romney (because he won the nomination last time), and Paul Ryan (I guess for the same reason they selected him for Vice President four years ago, although I’m not sure that I understand the reason).

But does the GOPe seriously think any of those guys could beat Hillary? In addition to Trump’s loyal supporters sitting out the election, the GOP also faces the prospect of Cruz’s loyal supporters also sitting out the election, because they too will feel that the nomination was stolen from them.

In the previous two presidential elections, the establishment white male candidate lost. What swing voters will Kasich, Ryan, or Mitt-round-two win in 2016 that they couldn’t win in 2012? Add on top of that the fact that the electorate is slightly less white (and therefore more Democratic) than it was four years ago. And then subtract the unhappy Trump and Cruz supporters who sit out the election. The result is a huge loss to Hillary. But at least the GOPe demonstrated to the mainstream media that they don’t support a racist like Trump, or a crazy reactionary like Cruz. The GOPe believes that if they only suck up enough to the mainstream media, the mainstream media will finally see them for the good guys that they are, and even come to realize that abortion is really bad and they should be opposed to it. While the GOPe is smart enough to see why Cruz, Kasich, Ryan or Romney won’t defeat Hillary, they are not smart enough to see the flaws in their standard mode of thinking.

If only they could find a Hispanic to run…

The GOPe continues to believe that the future of the party lies with winning more of the Hispanic vote. They believe that Hispanics are “natural conservatives” and if only they could convince Hispanics of their goodwill towards them, they would win them over from the Democrats.

Once upon a time, Rubio was the Great Hispanic Hope for an element of the GOPe. No doubt many of them are thinking that if only they had consolidated around him back in 2015 and drove Bush, Kasich and Christie from the race, but especially Bush with his massively funded Super PAC, Rubio would right now be the presumptive nominee.

They could still try to get Rubio nominated, but Rubio has the big aura of LOSER written all over him. Trump totally trounced him in his home state. How can he win over independents in a general election if he only won 27% of his home state among Republican voters?

Nope Rubio is damaged goods.

If only they could find some other Hispanic out there, preferably a governor who doesn’t have any sort of legislative record that could be used against him or her, preferably a governor who has spent at least five years in office so he or she has enough seasoning to be considered ready for higher office. Even better if this person was a woman. Wouldn’t that be exciting? Now where can the Republicans pull someone like this out of their trick hat?

The case for Susana Martinez

There is a such a person in New Mexico! Susana Martinez was elected governor in 2010. She never served in Congress, so there’s no legislative record on which they can pin anything on her. She’s a blank slate to be written over. And she even has a law degree!

Picking Susana Martinez fits in with the established modus operandi of the GOPe. They believe that they can swing elections with an “exciting” pick. That’s how we wound up with Sarah Palin in 2008, and with Ryan in 2012 instead of the older and therefore more “boring” Rob Portman. She can win the Hispanic vote! She can win the women’s vote! She can win every vote! She slices and dices!

And even if she loses for the same reason that the other previously-discussed candidates lose (because too many unhappy Trump and Cruz supporters sit out), at least the loss can be considered a strategic loss that moves the party in the right direction and garners the praise of liberals in the mainstream media.

I’m not saying I agree with this logic, I am just telling you what I think that GOPe must be thinking right now. They are probably already plotting a Martinez dark-horse nomination, but are keeping it very tightly to themselves.


It looks like someone on PredictIt was kind enough to sell me 2000 Susana Martinez shares for only one cent each. This $20 investment will be worth $2000 if I turn out to be right.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

March 16, 2016 at 3:33 pm

Posted in Politics

49 Responses

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  1. According to the NYT article you linked to “Currently, in addition to securing a majority of delegates, a candidate is required to win more than 50 percent of delegates in at least eight states to secure the nomination.”


    March 16, 2016 at 3:36 pm

    • Lion has reported on this rule previously. Fact is, that rule was added last time around (used to be a plurality in five states) in order to keep Ron Paul from getting air time. They can certainly change it this time if they want. If they don’t change it, then only Trump and Cruz will be potential nominees in the first round. I think more nominees can be added in the 2nd round under current rules. But, in any event, they’ll just change that rule if they need to.

      Greg Pandatshang

      March 16, 2016 at 5:12 pm

      • That’s another hurdle. It’s one thing to rob Trump under existing rules. It’s another to change the rules to rob him.


        March 16, 2016 at 6:10 pm

  2. God I hate Romney. He really could have united the party. Instead he does the opposite. This even though the party united around him last time.

    Meanwhile has he shown any ideological vision himself?


    March 16, 2016 at 3:42 pm

  3. No Lion, you were right before. It will be Kasch.

    Sagi Is My Guru

    March 16, 2016 at 3:55 pm

  4. If it’s not Trump, then who cares? I’ll go back to other things than following politics.

    Andrew E.

    March 16, 2016 at 3:57 pm

    • If Trump is denied the nomination in a back room deal, politics could get very interesting very quickly.


      March 16, 2016 at 4:59 pm

    • Me too. Normally I have a “Cthulhu always swims left” view of American politics and I pay little attention to them. Even though it’s now clear that Trump didn’t bother to read the immigration policy paper that Sessions wrote for him, I’m still energized and enthusiastic about him. This isn’t supposed to be happening. If he’s the nominee, I’ll vote for the first time in 16 years. If he’s not the nominee, I’ll enjoy the riots in Cleveland then tune out. Following the election so far has been kind of mind-numbing.


      March 16, 2016 at 5:38 pm

    • I am okay with Cruz being the nominee; I just think he can’t beat Hillary. If not Trump or Cruz, then, yeah, I will forget about politics for a few years. Cruz, at least, would protect down-ticket Republicans.


      March 16, 2016 at 7:19 pm

  5. James

    March 16, 2016 at 4:39 pm

    • Yes, I remember that story when it happened just a few months ago, but I don’t regard that as disqualifying her. She wasn’t driving, so it really doesn’t matter.

      I think she is viable as Trump’s running mate, but I really was hoping to have her for VP with Scott Walker at the top of the ticket.


      March 16, 2016 at 6:07 pm

    • OMG, somebody got drunk. What’s next, smoking a cigarette?


      March 16, 2016 at 11:11 pm

  6. Some statements from her:

    I am hopeful that the Legislature will enact the recommendation of the 9/11 commission, the position of nearly every other state in America, and the opinion of a vast majority of New Mexicans that we stop being a magnet for human trafficking, fraud and crime rings. I’m asking the Legislature to finally repeal the law that gives driver’s licenses to illegal immigrants.
    Source: 2013 State of the State address to N.M. Legislature , Jan 15, 2013

    Susana Martinez recognizes how critical it is that we secure our border. With violence in Mexico reaching unprecedented levels, we must do everything within our power to protect against that crime and violence crossing over the border.

    The first place Martinez will start is by seeking to repeal the law that allows illegal immigrants to obtain driver’s licenses. Martinez opposes providing illegal immigrants with free tuition through taxpayer-funded lottery scholarships.
    Source: Campaign website,, “On the Issues” , Nov 2, 2010

    Really, it could be worse. And if Trump does get the nomination, and he chooses her? She can look forward to being demolished like Palin was (because Republican).

    Half Canadian

    March 16, 2016 at 4:51 pm

    • Maybe that’s why Martinez doesn’t get any buzz … she’s too hardcore on immigration? It defeats GOPe’s purposes to have a photogenic minority woman if she’s still pushing the same anti-immigration policies that GOPe exists to defeat. If that’s the deal, then I’d still bet on Nikki Haley over Martinez.

      Greg Pandatshang

      March 16, 2016 at 6:12 pm

      • She is in favor of “comprehensive immigration reform” which is a euphemism for amnesty.

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        March 16, 2016 at 6:30 pm

      • Too obscure? She might just not have the charisma for the top job. I mean, yeah, it never stopped Hillary, but she had Bill’s tail…er, coattails to ride on.


        March 16, 2016 at 10:54 pm

      • Lion: amnesty really isn’t a big deal. The status quo is amnesty. The problem is granting amnesty without having any further immigration enforcement and without reducing the massive legal immigration we are currently taking in.

        In fact, legal immigration has damaged the US 100x more than illegal immigration.

        Otis the Sweaty

        March 16, 2016 at 11:23 pm

      • You know, in reality, Mark Krikorian, the head guy from the Center for Immigration Studies, is basically in favor of an amnesty for people who are already here. I agree with him. But it’s insane to talk about an amnesty now when no one can have any faith that we’ve secured the border. “comprehensive immigration reform” is almost always a euphemism for policies that will result in two, three, many amnesties.

        Greg Pandatshang

        March 17, 2016 at 10:26 am

  7. Now that two of the establishment drones are out and it’s down to just Kasich, I think Trump has it. There’s no way Kasich gets 8 states. He just got the only state he’s going to get. Trump will either get the 1237 or be close. Cruz will be a distant second. They won’t contest the election just to give it to Cruz. And if they tried to give it to someone else Trump and Cruz have enough delegates between them to block it. It may end up being a Trump/Cruz ticket after all. Maybe not. But it won’t be an establishment candidate. They’d it be burning their own house down, destroying all the down ballot candidates and pissing off special interests who actually depend on representation in congress. What’s more, it would only take a few of the establishment players to reject a brokered convention to put the nix on it. And I seriously doubt they can get all the establishment players to go along with it. Sheldon Adelson has already said he can accept Trump.

    There is, however a wild card that could change everything. Soros’ thugs are gearing up for mass demonstrations, protests and riots. That will either derail Trump or launch him into the stratosphere.


    March 16, 2016 at 5:03 pm

    • “There’s no way Kasich gets 8 states.”

      That’s a red herring. They will change the rules before the first ballot.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      March 16, 2016 at 5:33 pm

    • You’re forgetting the fact that most of Trump’s delegates are opposed to a Trump nomination. Most of “his” delegates will jump ship after the first ballot, if not before.


      March 16, 2016 at 5:56 pm

      • “You’re forgetting the fact that most of Trump’s delegates are opposed to a Trump nomination.”

        How do you know what the delegates think?


        March 16, 2016 at 6:17 pm

      • Delegates are selected by each State Republican Party establishment. Not likely to be a hotbed of sympathies for El Trumpo there.

        Thin-Skinned Masta-Beta

        March 16, 2016 at 10:19 pm

      • Any delegate who votes against Trump should be willing to accept the consequences of that. It is openly declaring yourself to be a traitor to the American people. These people should become pariahs, stripped of all finances, and forced to go live in poverty in Mexico, since that’s what they’d prefer this country to be.

        Panther of the Blogocube

        March 17, 2016 at 4:15 am

      • How would the “State Republican Party establishment” know who delegates support? A lot of them have been delegates for years. They weren’t selected on the basis of whether they supported Trump. And a contested convention wasn’t even a consideration when they were selected because there hadn’t been one in decades. A lot of them are also older. Trump polls extremely well with older voters. Delegates may well go against Trump in a contested convention. But I’ve yet to see any real evidence to support that assumption.


        March 17, 2016 at 4:49 am

      • They’ll pick people who have been loyal to the insiders. It’s true that some of those people will turn out to be Trumpistas, but they are not typical GOP primary voters, so I expect Trump’s support to be low. Especially in cases where the delegates are being selected relatively late, now that everyone knows a contested convention could happen, party bosses will do what they can do exclude people who are suspected of fringe sympathies. At the same time, each presidential campaign will do whatever they can to influence the process. Obviously, Trump’s campaign will be terrible at that. If anybody turn delegate selection to their advantage, it’s Cruz. You have to believe he’s been laying awake at night puzzling out the details of the Nebraska state convention and so forth and so on for years.

        Greg Pandatshang

        March 17, 2016 at 11:03 am

  8. I think I’ve wondered out loud in the comments before if there’s something wrong with Susana Martinez such that I never hear GOPe-oriented sources talking her up as the next great !white hope. I feel like there’s been more buzz around Nikki Haley. 6 of one, half dozen the other, based on my limited knowledge.

    Greg Pandatshang

    March 16, 2016 at 5:09 pm

    • She isn’t especially attractive. Roly-poly. Looks vaguely like Snooki.


      March 16, 2016 at 6:30 pm

  9. Martinez is more likely on the ticket as VP. I could easily see that.

    Jay Fink

    March 16, 2016 at 5:32 pm

  10. Sooooo, no Burkean, small government, pro-life Republican can ever again be elected POTUS? Only moderates and liberals need apply? If Cruz were great looking but maintained the exact same policies, would that make a difference?


    March 16, 2016 at 5:49 pm

  11. The GOPe does not actually care about winning at all. Especially with a candidate they don’t control. Throwing this election was probably *always* their plan. Too bad Jeb was such a loser he couldn’t even win the role of “graceful loser” that was planned for him.


    March 16, 2016 at 5:54 pm

  12. She should be disqualified based on her not being white. The answer to the country’s problems is to stop importing non-whites to be worthless, sponge pseudo-citizens. Especially Martinez who, if she ever becomes POTUS, would undo Trump’s immigration policies just as GHWB and GWB destroyed Reagan’ legacy.

    A white man or woman, please.

    The Undiscovered Jew

    March 16, 2016 at 9:09 pm

    • Oh, I don’t know. Finding a nominal Hispanic who supports immigration restriction might be just the thing to mess with the liberals.


      March 16, 2016 at 10:53 pm

  13. If the Republican Party needs to nominate a Mexican proless to be our next President then we are in much deeper shit than I thought.


    March 16, 2016 at 9:30 pm

  14. […] First, detailed analysis of the remaining primaries suggests Trump will win a majority of delegates, but with only 13 to spare — so there is a substantial chance the nomination will come down to a party pick at the convention. Second, if the Republican establishment get to pick, their reasoning may lead them to choose someone…. […]

    The Wentworth Report

    March 16, 2016 at 10:54 pm

  15. I really think they can’t stop Trump at this point. They’re already starting to accept he’ll be the nominee.


    March 16, 2016 at 10:55 pm

  16. I think you’re right about Cruz doing well in a contested convention. Did you see this article?

    The Cruz campaign is phenomenally well run and activity pursuing the shadow delegate selecting prices on a state by state level, which is what matters after the first vote.

    Also, 80% of Rubio’s votes go to Cruz compared to more like 60% of Kasich’s. Going forward, especially with more Western states voting, Cruz will be able to stop Trump from getting a majority of delegates.



    March 17, 2016 at 1:11 am

  17. A better idea for the GOPe: Chris Christie, with Trump as VP and head of Homeland Security, Carl Icahn as Secretary of Commerce or whoever is the main negotiator of trade deals. Get Cruz on board by promising him AG (but don’t make that public so as not to turn off Dems).

    Dave Pinsen

    March 17, 2016 at 1:44 am

  18. New Mexico receives over two dollars from the government for every dollar of tax revenue collected from the state. This is higher than any other state. Over 20% of the population is on welfare. And it ranks near the bottom on education. There’s no way the GOP would nominate anyone from a state that bad.


    March 17, 2016 at 5:27 am

  19. Lion, $2K minus tax. They send you a 1099 for anything above $600.


    March 17, 2016 at 7:21 am

    • I never head of it until now. Should I be worried?

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      March 17, 2016 at 8:08 am

    • The NY Post has been covering many of the slashing incidents that have occurred recently. Some are gang related, and some are just nuts acting out. Crime is up, police morale is down and Mayor de Blasio along with the City Council are handcuffing the cops. It should be noted that just about every self-defense weapon is illegal in NYC and the cops have arrested many law-abiding citizens for carrying legal knives as well.

      Lewis Medlock

      March 17, 2016 at 11:28 am

  20. What kind of gambling addict sells 100-1 long shot options? Sheesh.

    Heck, Lion, all you need to have happen is one of the cable news channels name-drop her one of their breathless brokered convention segments and you’ve made 4-5x on your money. It wouldn’t take much for her to get to 10 cents, which is 10x on your money. Too bad you can’t scale this up. I’d think you might be able to get in for another $20, but this has to be an incredibly thin market.

    BTW, who holds the collateral? What if somebody decides to welch?


    March 17, 2016 at 1:33 pm

  21. […] Therefore, the GOPe had decided that anyone-but-Trump means support Ted Cruz. Once they start endorsing Cruz it will be hard to walk that back at the convention and bring in some moderate white-knight savior (like Susana Martinez). […]

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