Lion of the Blogosphere

Wisconsin Analysis

Wisconsin is relevant because next Tuesday there’s a primary in Arizona and a caucus in Utah. And then two weeks after that, there’s a primary in Wisconsin. And then two weeks after that, there’s a primary in New York. It’s a very sparse calendar for the five weeks. A lot can happen during that time.

And then, finally, on April 26, there is a Super Tuesday of northeast states: Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island.

So Wisconsin is one of only four states to have a primary or caucus before the next Super Tuesday which doesn’t happen for another six weeks.

* * *

A poll at the end of February had Truimp in the lead with 30%. But that was before even Jeb Bush dropped out.

The poll indicates that Cruz is not especially strong in Wisconsin. I don’t feel like Wisconsin is one of those states where all the church people and TrueCons will come out in droves for Cruz.

If I had the guess, I would say that Wisconsin is a Trump win in which Trump only gets around 38% of the vote, with a close split between Cruz and Kasich.

Wisconsin is a mixed winner-take-all state. There are 42 total delegates. 18 delegates go to the winner of the state, and 3 delegates go to the winner of each of 8 congressional districts. So even a narrow Trump victory can mean that Trump picks up 42 delegates if his victory is even throughout the state.

If I had to guess where in the state Trump would be weak, it would be the congressional district which includes Madison which might go to Kasich (because Madison is too liberal to vote for Cruz), and the congressional district which includes Green Bay which might go to Cruz (because Cruz is strong in second-tier mostly-white cities). I think that Trump will be strong the Milwaukee metropolitan area for the same reasons he was strong in the Chicago metropolitan area in yesterday’s Illinois primary. Milwaukee is a Rust Belt city and the only area in Wisconsin with a significant number of black people. As we know, Trump does better in areas where there are black people, because the presence of black people makes life worse for blue-collar whites.

Predicting that Trump loses in 2 of the 8 congressional districts, he will win 36 delegates. Cruz wins 3 and Kasich wins 3.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

March 16, 2016 at 11:15 am

Posted in Politics

10 Responses

Subscribe to comments with RSS.

  1. Wisconsin is probably more like neighboring Illinois and Michigan than its freakish neighbor Minnesota.

    According to the NY Times map, Minneapolis Republicans vote like Miami Republicans.
    http://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/national-results-map

    SQ

    March 16, 2016 at 11:33 am

  2. Trump campaign needs to shift gears and start talking about swing states and the electoral college.

    Which states does Cruz pick-up that Romney did not? Maybe NV and maybe IA. That’s maybe 12 electoral votes and definitely not enough to win the general.

    Which states does Trump pick-up that Romney did not? Definitely NV, plus FL, OH, PA, MI, and maybe IA and VA. That’s 75 and enough to win the Presidency. NY and NJ would be icing on the cake.

    Though, again, I think the GOPe doesn’t care about November. They only care that Trump is /not/ President.

    Portlander

    March 16, 2016 at 11:42 am

  3. Wisconsin actually votes pretty much the same as all the other states, but commentators keep on discussing the state as if it were different.

    Ed

    March 16, 2016 at 11:53 am

  4. I’m typing this at a Panera Bread in Fond du Lac, Wisconsin.

    Wisconsin has a lot of similarity with Ohio, culturally and demographically. Therefore, I predict Kasich will pick up more of Rubio’s support than Cruz, and possibly may win. You are correct that Cruz will not do especially well here.

    McFly

    March 16, 2016 at 12:15 pm

    • Kasich did not win Ohio due to culture and demographics. He won Ohio because he is Ohio’s reasonably popular sitting governor. Ohio Republicans are used to pulling the lever for Kasich.

      Dan

      March 16, 2016 at 2:37 pm

    • Wisconsin abuts Illinois which went to Trump, and Illinois which went to Trump. These are both considerably closer than Ohio.

      Dan

      March 16, 2016 at 2:39 pm

  5. If Ted Cruz can pick up Rubio and Kasich’s delegates then he is in the lead right now. This is a likely outcome. Clinton vs. Cruz would be a nightmare scenario.

    Ted will have challenges to his eligibility. What if they succeed? What if Cruz wins the general election but cannot serve because of eligibility?

    Why would Cruz win? Because Hillary is under indictment over the email scandal and her turnout is very low. What if Hillary wins the general election but is dealing with legal action over the emails? Does she pardon herself?

    Is it possible for Clinton to be tried and convicted before the election? Does the system move that fast?

    NotWesley

    March 16, 2016 at 12:28 pm

  6. “If I had to guess where in the state Trump would be weak, it would be the congressional district which includes Madison which might go to Kasich (because Madison is too liberal to vote for Cruz), and the congressional district which includes Green Bay which might go to Cruz (because Cruz is strong in second-tier mostly-white cities).”

    I don’t think so. The liberals in Madison wouldn’t be voting in the GOP primary anyway, and would be going for Bernie on the Dem side. My experience has shown that what Republicans there are in strong Dem areas tend to be very conservative, and vice versa. Sort of making an in your face gesture to the local powers that be, such as it is.

    sestamibi

    March 16, 2016 at 12:37 pm

  7. I was born in Milwaukee. Although I haven’t lived there in decades I have a feel for the state. There are a couple of suburban Milwaukee counties that I think are likely to vote for Cruz. Waukesha and Washington counties have a surprising number of TrueCons. Republicans easily won suburban Milwaukee even if Obama won pretty much the rest of the state, including the blue collar Northeastern part of the state (Green Bay-Appleton) that used to be Republican.

    Jay Fink

    March 16, 2016 at 3:07 pm

  8. Saw somewhere that Trump does best in strong Democratic strongholds where Republicans are few.

    Luke Lea (@lukelea)

    March 23, 2016 at 1:27 pm


Comments are closed.

%d bloggers like this: