Wisconsin is relevant because next Tuesday there’s a primary in Arizona and a caucus in Utah. And then two weeks after that, there’s a primary in Wisconsin. And then two weeks after that, there’s a primary in New York. It’s a very sparse calendar for the five weeks. A lot can happen during that time.
And then, finally, on April 26, there is a Super Tuesday of northeast states: Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island.
So Wisconsin is one of only four states to have a primary or caucus before the next Super Tuesday which doesn’t happen for another six weeks.
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A poll at the end of February had Truimp in the lead with 30%. But that was before even Jeb Bush dropped out.
The poll indicates that Cruz is not especially strong in Wisconsin. I don’t feel like Wisconsin is one of those states where all the church people and TrueCons will come out in droves for Cruz.
If I had the guess, I would say that Wisconsin is a Trump win in which Trump only gets around 38% of the vote, with a close split between Cruz and Kasich.
Wisconsin is a mixed winner-take-all state. There are 42 total delegates. 18 delegates go to the winner of the state, and 3 delegates go to the winner of each of 8 congressional districts. So even a narrow Trump victory can mean that Trump picks up 42 delegates if his victory is even throughout the state.
If I had to guess where in the state Trump would be weak, it would be the congressional district which includes Madison which might go to Kasich (because Madison is too liberal to vote for Cruz), and the congressional district which includes Green Bay which might go to Cruz (because Cruz is strong in second-tier mostly-white cities). I think that Trump will be strong the Milwaukee metropolitan area for the same reasons he was strong in the Chicago metropolitan area in yesterday’s Illinois primary. Milwaukee is a Rust Belt city and the only area in Wisconsin with a significant number of black people. As we know, Trump does better in areas where there are black people, because the presence of black people makes life worse for blue-collar whites.
Predicting that Trump loses in 2 of the 8 congressional districts, he will win 36 delegates. Cruz wins 3 and Kasich wins 3.