Lion of the Blogosphere

New Polls

Arizona poll

Trump 31
Cruz 18
Kasich 10
Rubio 10
Undecided 30

This is a bad poll for Trump. Arizona, which is winner-take-all, is a must-win for Trump. Voters who are undecided are usually undecided about which not-Trump candidate they are going to vote for.

California poll

Trump 38
Cruz 22
Kasich 20
Rubio 10
Undecided 10

This poll has a very small sample size for such a big and important state. I’d really like to see Trump polling in the 40s to ensure he wins enough congressional districts to clinch the nomination. Trump only at 38 is not a great result for Trump.

* * *

This list of delegates looks pretty good. It accounts for all delegates and even shows you how many unpledged delegates there are. Those unpledged delegates could be of key significance if Trump just misses the 1,237 number. How many of those unpledged delegates will vote for Trump?

There are going to be additional unpledged delegates added from American Samoa, North Dakota, and Pennsylvania.

Trump was very strong in the Northern Mariana Islands. Could that mean that the delegates from Guam and American Samoa will be Trump supporters? (It would be pretty weird if the delegations from Guam and American Samoa tip the balance of who becomes the nominee.)

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

March 17, 2016 at EST am

Posted in Politics

27 Responses

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  1. The only good thing about the “undecideds” is that it usually the undecideds only all break for Cruz when then 10% of less of those polled. Or at least, that has been the case so far in this primary season.

    If we assume Trump gets 1 point from Rubio, Kasich gets 3 and Cruz gets 6 that changes the results to 32, 24, 13. In IL, nearly half of the undecideds broke for Trump (although that could be a post Chicago riot bounce). Still, if Trump could even get 1/3 of the undecided vote, 42% is more than enough to win with.

    CA looks good right now. If those polls are accurate we got CA.

    Otis the Sweaty

    March 17, 2016 at EST am

  2. Drudge, bless him, just openly said Cruz needs 87% of the remaining delegates, on a headline! Watch him lose an easy 5-10 percentage points within a week and another 5-10 after that. I was surprised at how rapidly Rubio melted down, but it won’t be a surprise to me when astute coastal voters wake up and kick Cruz aside faster than anyone thinks. They will come to acceptance of Trump even if it just means letting the populist lose and letting off steam for this generation. The minor party types don’t want to see the entire Republican brand and many of their careers ruined by a corrupt convention for a single office! No one wants to see a third party disaster.

    Cruz’s relatively educated base can do the math and by the time their state’s turn comes, they will understand that they need to switch places to preserve Cruz’s long term potential. The “undecideds” might just be sitting quiet instead of calling too much attention to Trump too soon before his campaign is truly prepared to get into general election mode.

    By the time California hits, Trump will be solidly over 50% of the vote.

    scald85

    March 17, 2016 at EST am

  3. Cruz’s peak groups are “very conservative” UMC evangelicals. Plenty of them in TX and OK, but very few here in Cal. Cal’s WWC voters are secular and not really “very conservative” on any issue but immigration. Cal’s UMC white republicans will prefer Kasich. Rubio would have done well here. We have lots of districts reliant on illegal farm labor and the business and farm owners there are all strong regular GOP primary voters.

    Lot

    March 17, 2016 at EST am

    • UMC? WWC?

      T

      March 17, 2016 at EST pm

      • I’m GUESSING that UMC is upper middle class and WWC is white working class. But it sure would be nice if people wouldn’t make up acronyms out of whole cloth without any indication of what they stand for.

        destructure

        March 17, 2016 at EST pm

      • I agree, use the standard acronyms, please.

        I thought UMC was some college, like the University of Missouri at Columbia or University of Massachusetts at Chicopee.

        Or perhaps the United Methodist Church.

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        March 17, 2016 at EST pm

      • I’m GUESSING that UMC is upper middle class and WWC is white working class. But it sure would be nice if people wouldn’t make up acronyms out of whole cloth without any indication of what they stand for.

        We have SWPL and Prole for the respective classes, so UMC would be something else!

        JS

        March 17, 2016 at EST pm

  4. I think something must be wrong with the poll. Immigration is a huge issue in Arizona, and that’s Trump’s strongest issue.

    sabril

    March 17, 2016 at EST am

    • Arizona is also a stalwart conservative bastion, one of the few true-red states left in the Union. John McCain is far more in the way of the Arizonan brand of conservatism than Donald, and the poll numbers seem just about accurate…coming from somebody who’s lived and covered politics in AZ.

      strangerumblingsusa

      March 17, 2016 at EST pm

      • Trump’s strongest issue is “telling it like it is” and being “politically incorrect.”

        J.J.

        March 17, 2016 at EST pm

      • John McCain — the most well known Republican in the country — only survived his primary in 2010 with 56% of the vote against anti-amnesty candidates.

        McCain changed his position (until the primary was won) and spent close to $10,000,000 lying to the AZ people that he was the strongest anti-amnesty candidate. Even then he barely won the nomination.

        AZ Republicans are not a stupid and craven as you suggest.

        owentt

        March 17, 2016 at EST pm

      • Not as much as it used to be. This is also the state that gave us Janet Napolitano, Bruce Babbitt, and now Raul Grijalva and Kristen Sinema.

        sestamibi

        March 17, 2016 at EST pm

      • I agree, the mood is changing here somewhat with the swell of immigrants – politically, the rights are essentially demanded at a certain point, and the voting bloc will gain a huge amount of influence over time. But in 2016, Arizona is still a Conservative bastion – Grijalva is from the ultra-liberal Tuscon area, and Sinema resides in the Clinton/New Democrat strong-hold 9th District, mostly suburban Chandler. That’s a small portion of the state, even though it holds a good chunk of delegates in any statewide race because they’re fairly urban localities.

        As for J.J. and the other poster, not sure what your point is – I’m simply saying the polls are accurate as of March 17. Trump will, in all likelihood, gain about 7-10% of that Undecided vote in the area, if not more, and Cruz will do fairly well in that area as well, picking up near the lower-end of the 6-10% range in Undecided, while picking up the majority of Rubio votes. I would expect Trump to win Arizona with at least 40%, maybe hovering around or just near 44-45%, with Cruz coming in a solid second with 28-34%.

        Not such a bad outcome for Trump. And yes, McCain has seen some tough primary challenges – but only from the right in an already-right state, from the Arpaio nuts who think they run the Party (and they somewhat do). The voters also elected Jeff Flake to the Senate, one of the few Senators who has come against against Trump publicly and has been publicly against the Republican blockade of any Supreme Court nomination.

        It’s a solid red-state and the polls will definitely increase in Trump’s favor in the next few days, but as it stands, Trump is looking at just about what the polling number suggests. But they’ve barely done any campaigning here! That’s the main point, that his numbers will increase soon when the rallies come before the vote.

        Keep in mind, Arizona has a closed-primary system, so the idea of Cruz over-performing isn’t too far-fetched. 35, 36, even 37% – I wouldn’t put it out-of-range with the consolidation of the field. But the turnout in Arizona is the snowbird population, and I suspect Trump will carry that crowd to victory, and douse some of the Cruz fire in the process.

        You would have to assume Ted believes he has a serious shot to win the state, so any loss here would be a blow, to say the least.

        strangerumblingsusa

        March 17, 2016 at EST pm

  5. Trump would probably benefit by making more red-meat attacks against Hillary Clinton. Besides the social proof of coming off as a general election candidate, it would also help people not yet on the Trump Train to emotionally identify with him for a change, since they’re going to agree that Hillary will be terrible for the country. Attacks on other Republicans have maxed out their effectiveness and now just remind people who don’t already support you why they’re not on board.

    Richard

    March 17, 2016 at EST am

    • “more red-meat attacks against Hillary…”

      Sounds like solid advice. Trump’s already calling for the party to unify around him. Make the rest of it seem like formality, and close ranks against the Dems. By the time November draws near, a lot of the Republicans crying “NeverTrump” will have a change of heart.

      Vince

      March 17, 2016 at EST pm

  6. Drudge frequently links to articles by I think a largely not-credible Roger Stone, who raises scary scenarios of the GOPe robbing Trump of the nomination. For what it’s worth, here’s the latest warning from Stone:

    Rule 16 (d). Nobody can be a delegate if he is from a state where voters who are not registered Republican can vote in the Republican primary. Like Massachusetts, where Trump got 22 delegates. Like Arkansas, where Trump racked up 16 delegates.

    Stone says the GOPe will toss out those 38 delegates before the convention. And that isn’t the only rule the GOPe will use to deny Trump a first-ballot nomination.

    Mark Caplan

    March 17, 2016 at EST am

    • Like Georgia where he got 40 delegates.

      Polentone

      March 17, 2016 at EST pm

    • If this is true, then they’ll have to kick out Rubio’s Minnesota delagates as well. Anyone can vote in the Republican caucus in Minnesota. Or does the rule only apply to actual primaries and not caucuses?

      Anon

      March 17, 2016 at EST pm

    • Drudge frequently links to articles by I think a largely not-credible Roger Stone, who raises scary scenarios of the GOPe robbing Trump of the nomination.

      Those scenarios become realistic only if Trump falls well short of a majority. If Trump is within 100 delegates he will easily cut a deal to get himself over the top with some combination of uncommitted delegates, Cruz and/or Kasich.

      The Undiscovered Jew

      March 17, 2016 at EST pm

  7. Remember Trump also has a lot of elected and former elected officials supporting him in Arizona. Those people have ground games that can help him.

    Sean C

    March 17, 2016 at EST am

  8. How the hell could California Republicans not vote for Trump? Arguably the number one issue there is illegals and the changing of their communities. San Diego is the Republican hotspot of California, and the city is divided by Mexicans to the south of Downtown and whites to the north (not too many blacks, and the Asians live with the whites). Major drug smuggling down there.

    I can’t for the life of me imagine that they would vote for Cruz of Kasich. There are some born again, but most are Protestants. Come on, they voted in the freakin’ Governator! They don’t have qualms about electing celebrities to higher office.

    And I would find it hypocritical of the blacks to vote for Hillary when the blacks constantly war with the Mexicans in L.A.

    DdR

    March 17, 2016 at EST pm

    • “The only way to comprehend what mathematicians mean by Infinity is to contemplate the extent of human stupidity.”

      fakeemail

      March 17, 2016 at EST pm

  9. Didja hear the owner of the Arizona Diamondbacks baseball team announced she “doesn’t care if we lose 100k fans, Trump must be stopped”?

    Macgregor

    March 17, 2016 at EST pm

  10. I talked to a very low information Hispanic about Trump. She actually never heard of him until yesterday!!! Her son played her some anti-Trump rap song on YouTube filled with profanity that kept calling him a racist. When I told her I support Trump she was stunned and said “I didn’t know you are a racist”. This is what we’re up against.

    Jay Fink

    March 17, 2016 at EST pm

  11. This list of delegates looks pretty good. It accounts for all delegates and even shows you how many unpledged delegates there are. Those unpledged delegates could be of key significance if Trump just misses the 1,237 number.

    What’s the plan to block Trump when he wins at least 54% of remaining delegates and arrives in Cleveland with a majority?

    How many of those unpledged delegates will vote for Trump?

    There are over 100 ambassadorships for him to hand out if wins, aren’t there? Albeit there are maybe only 40 countries where anyone sane would to serve as American ambassador…

    The Undiscovered Jew

    March 17, 2016 at EST pm

  12. Beyond my failed career in GOP politics, I also had a failed career as a regulatory economist and statistician, so I can tell you that while the California sample is a bit small (600 or more would be better), the accuracy of the poll depends ONLY on the size of the sample and not the size of the population. That is, a sample of 600 would give you just as good results for California as it would for Wyoming or Vermont. This is a common misconception and is discussed in any good statistics textbook.

    sestamibi

    March 17, 2016 at EST pm


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