Lion of the Blogosphere

Tump at 64% in new New York poll

Link to pdf news release about the poll.

64%. Wow. This is very good news for Trump.

In addition to a really dominant win giving him social proof that will boost his results in future primaries, Trump wins all of the 3 delegates from each NY congressional district where he wins with at least 50% of the vote. So sweeping all 27 districts with 50% or more of the vote or only winning with a plurality in each of the 27 districts is the difference of 27 delegates. Because the race for Trump to win a majority of delegates is still uncertain, a commanding win in NY where he picks up all of the state’s 95 delegates would be a huge boost.

Luckily for Trump, there isn’t a single Manhattan SWPL-only congressional district where Trump would be weak. Manhattan is gerrymandered into four CDs, each including areas from the prole outer boroughs where Trump will be dominatingly strong.

I also predict that Trump’s strongest CD will be the one that includes all of Staten Island and parts of prole Brooklyn. Yes, that’s the same CD that guido congressman Michael Grimm (who once threatened to beat up a reporter) hailed from. I see Trump winning 80% of this district.

I also expect Trump to pick up an endorsement from Rudy Giuliani before the New York primary.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

March 17, 2016 at 9:54 pm

Posted in Politics

58 Responses

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  1. Guido? He’s that and more, partly German too. We’ve got a young and upcoming Garibaldi from Staten Island with a stitch of Otto Skorzeny. Today Brooklyn, tomorrow, the World! Mare Nostrum! Avanti Popolo! Let us have a dagger between our teeth, a bomb in our hands, and an infinite scorn in our hearts!


    March 17, 2016 at 10:16 pm

  2. I’m excited to vote for Trump. First time on my life I’ll be voting in a primary!


    March 17, 2016 at 10:24 pm

  3. Winning one’s home state is not news. Losing it is.


    March 17, 2016 at 10:34 pm

    • The news is that he might win all the delegates from New York, instead of just winning most of them.


      March 18, 2016 at 10:39 am

  4. Yes, that’s the same CD that guido congressman Michael Grimm (who once threatened to beat up a reporter) hailed from.

    Long Island is in the bag when Trump rolls out the Fat Tony Salerno endorsement.

    The Undiscovered Jew

    March 17, 2016 at 11:09 pm

  5. Except there aren’t all that many Republicans to vote in the primary in NY, and most of them don’t show anyway. The NYS Board of Elections reports 3,111,786 Democrats in the five borough (active and inactive), and only 470,730 Republicans as of 11/1/15. The GOP process delegate selection process is distorted also because each congressional district is assigned three delegates regardless of the party’s strength in that district, so that CD 15 (south Bronx) with 15,524 Republicans has as much clout as CD 21 (the North Country) with 175,575. You can bet the turnout in CD 15 will be around 1000 total.

    Obviously, the intrepid Republicans in the ghetto districts are, by definition, mostly non-white, so it would be interesting to see how their vote will be cast.


    March 17, 2016 at 11:51 pm

    • Non white Republicans have been going overwhelmingly for Trump. The reasons should be obvious.


      March 18, 2016 at 3:46 pm

      • Yes, that’s true, but as I said, there aren’t many of them. However, their clout is leveraged because of the delegate allocation rules.


        March 19, 2016 at 12:50 am

  6. Y’all ain’t be having no convention, man. Homies gonna riot all over yo’ delegate ass. Gonna be begging Jeb to come back.


    March 18, 2016 at 12:06 am

  7. Who’s Tump?


    March 18, 2016 at 12:10 am

    • A well rounded wig that Trump sports = Tump


      March 18, 2016 at 10:42 am

      • Oh, so that’s where the phrase, “I’m going to take a Tump” comes from.


        March 19, 2016 at 5:43 pm

  8. This is the good news that we needed to hear. I made the mistake over the last couple of days of listening to Michael Medved’s radio show, which resulted in only in getting my blood boiling. For those who may not know, Medved is like an irritating version of Ned Flanders, who blindly supports the Republican establishment.


    March 18, 2016 at 12:40 am

  9. I’m still voting for Ted Cruz. I knew Trump would be ahead in New York, but I didn’t think he’d be ahead by this much. But it won’t matter to me if Trump makes him VP. I still won’t support any ticket with Trump on it – even a Cruz for President, Trump for VP ticket. I’m starting to face the fact that Hilary is going to be president (a depressing thought!)


    March 18, 2016 at 12:59 am

    • Nobody wants your vote, MaryK. Hell, don’t even sit out, vote for Hillary.

      The GOP is ours now.

      Otis the Sweaty

      March 18, 2016 at 9:57 am

      • If Trump is really so popular and the voting public has been longing for someone like him, then why didn’t he start his own party? He certainly has the money to do this. And it would be a lot more honest. Instead Trump supporters believe he has a right to take over the party and that when loyal Truecon Republicans want to walk away they’re being childish and disloyal. Why do I owe loyalty to “the Trump party?” This isn’t the Republican party I joined.


        March 18, 2016 at 2:19 pm

      • “then why didn’t he start his own party?”

        It’s called taking over a shell company on the Street, and it’s completely legal. Look it up!


        March 19, 2016 at 5:52 pm

      • Indeed, why go through the expense of all that “blue sky law” stuff when it’s a lot easier to just buy up some already existing corporation?

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        March 19, 2016 at 6:11 pm

    • “I’m still voting for Ted Cruz.”

      [rolls eyes]

      Mary, Mary. Ted Cruz hates you. Why do you want to vote for him? He’s nothing but a stealth candidate for the Globalists, up to his neck in Goldman Sachs connections, etc.


      March 18, 2016 at 10:27 am

    • MaryK – the other day I got a phone call from a person who eerily sounded like Cruz.

      You do have a penchant for creepy men like Heeby Gotham Gotleib and this Cruzy boy with his snarly fake texan drawl!


      March 18, 2016 at 10:46 am

    • You’re Italian and from New York. Why are you voting for Cruz?


      March 18, 2016 at 11:38 am

      • What has ethnicity got to do with voting? And Trump isn’t Italian-American (not that it would matter to me if he was. And Cruz being 1/8 Italian means exactly zip to me.) As for being endorsed by Rudy Julie-Annie, the saint of 9-11, that is only another reason NOT to vote for Trump (for me, at least.)


        March 18, 2016 at 2:24 pm

    • Before this I paid zero attention to Cruz, but since coming around here and reading MaryK, I’ve been reading up. Cruz isn’t just a Christian, he’s a real crank. And his father is more bonkers than Mel Gibson’s.

      MaryK, what do you think of this:

      I think the thing that MaryK hates most about Trump is his socially moderate positions. MaryK is the crazy one here. Screw you fruitcakes, you are as bad as the libertarians. Get your own country where you can fight it out with them. I want nothing to do with you.

      A social moderate and an economic nationalist – nirvana!


      March 18, 2016 at 1:05 pm

      • There’s no such thing as a social “moderate.” There are only social conservatives and (if only be default) social liberals. Trump is the latter by choice. His right to be one, naturally. But he doesn’t have to insult my intelligence with silly talk about how he thinks Christians are abused in America. There is nothing the president can do if organizations or businesses want to use “Happy Holidays” instead of “Merry Christmas.” This is a free speech issue. If you think a business is offending Christianity you can use your free market freedom to patronize another business. If Trump were really a social moderate he might at least tell us that he’s on the side of wedding businesses that don’t want to serve a same-sex wedding. Or home schoolers who are only trying to raise their children the way they see fit.. Instead he avoids the serious issues and hopes the evangelicals are stupid enough to think he’s one of them culturally. Apparently, he’s right about their stupidity. And hell will freeze over before I trust a decadent plutocrat from Manhattan to appoint strict constructionists to the court. Trump cares only about raw power – he’s likely to appoint justices who vote the way he himself would vote.

        And Gothamette, what makes you think I care about your opinion of me? I never said I wanted anything to do with YOU, did I? Your anger seems out of place. I can’t determine the outcome of the election by what I write here. The voters apparently want Trump and not Cruz. So why are you being a sore winner? Yes, Trump will lose a lot of “truecons” in November. But you always knew there was a risk in nominating someone as out of the ordinary as him. I don’t owe anyone my vote.

        Yeah, I guess I AM a fruitcake – this being the American word (along with “wingnut”) for anyone who believes in whatever socially conventional values that even liberals themselves believed up until, oh,…yesterday morning at 10 o’clock.


        March 18, 2016 at 2:16 pm

      • I think the thing that MaryK hates most about Trump is his socially moderate positions.

        Yes, basically they want to restrict 4 freedoms –

        – freedom of gays

        – freedom of women to have abortions

        – freedom of Americans to oppose pro wall st trade deals

        – freedom of Americans to oppose open borders.

        True cons are obsessed with the first two. Libertarians, related nerds and Wall st shills are more obsessed with the last two.

        Trump is probably a moderate Archie Bunker on the first two. That is he doesn’t personally like it but would rather not get involved. He’s obviously not a flaming liberal on it.

        But he’s a competitive nationalist on the last two and he doesn’t understand why the powerful people in this country don’t agree with him. Whether they are libertarian nerds or corporate profiteers.


        Ted Cruz is a repellent creep on a personal level by most accounts. From college to the Senate the guy has left a trail of people who find him to be one of the most unappealing people they have ever met.

        On the other issue he is clearly a smug religious kook who seems to believe we are living in the End of Days etc etc.



        March 18, 2016 at 5:14 pm

      • There’s no such thing as a social “moderate.”

        Actually, there is, but I guess someone who supports a man who doesn’t disavow a preacher who says that gays should be killed doesn’t understand the meaning of the word moderate. I’ll pass.

        “Trump cares only about raw power – he’s likely to appoint justices who vote the way he himself would vote.”

        Newsflash, all Presidents appoint ideologically compatible judges. (And most judges wander off the reservation, but that’s a different story.)

        “And Gothamette, what makes you think I care about your opinion of me?”

        I don’t.

        The only reason I brought this up is because until recently I knew nothing about Cruz, other than that he was a hyper-conservative Senator from Texas and believe it or not, I being a conservative myself, I was sympathetic to his conservatism. I paid ZERO attention to his religious beliefs and knew nothing about his demeanor until I read an exchange between you and someone else here, in which you berated the other commenter for questioning whether his beliefs were sincere. I think it was on the thread about Paglia.

        So, out of sheer curiosity I looked into those beliefs and what I saw appalled me. Cruz is either a liar (which I sort of hope) or he is truly sincere about his religious beliefs, in which case he, and anyone who supports him, is clinically insane.

        He is also a political doofus. Lecturing Arab Christians about their insufficient pro-Zionism revealed him to be a jackass.


        March 18, 2016 at 7:51 pm

  10. Lion: can you do a post about “prole drift”? Where somebody is born to middle class, educated parents but their low IQ drags them into proledom.

    I would like to know how common it is. There is a guy I grew up with and his family was pretty well off when I was growing up but I see his posts on Facebook and he is now working in “Real Estate” and is a total prole with a prole latina girlfriend.

    When blacks regress to the mean, they become gangsters but when whites regress to the mean they just become proles.

    Otis the Sweaty

    March 18, 2016 at 1:30 am

  11. Lion, check out this video. It’s the ultimate prole white case for Trump. Notice he didn’t even really mention immigration. This simple fact is Trump is just likable and seems trustworthy.

    Your friend

    March 18, 2016 at 3:12 am

    • Great voter! Makes sense too.


      March 18, 2016 at 3:34 pm

    • But he’s not at all trustworthy. One of the commentors here keeps arguing that the support he gets on this site is for an almost totally set of reasons than the support of the vast majority of his voters. This is evidence that guy is right.

      Lloyd Llewellyn

      March 19, 2016 at 1:09 am

  12. OT, but Charles Murray set Virginia Tech President Sands straight over The Bell Curve.


    March 18, 2016 at 4:04 am

    • But is anyone going to read it and change their minds?

      I bet that Mr. Sands still thinks that Murray is a “racist.”

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      March 18, 2016 at 8:45 am

      • The left does not believe in the free and open exchange of ideas and opinions. That’s why they developed political correctness, which dictates what can and cannot be said.

        HBD will never be accepted by the left because it explodes two of their sacred cows: egalitarianism and environmentalism.

        Lewis Medlock

        March 18, 2016 at 12:43 pm

  13. Could Trump win NY in Nov? If so, that is a good argument for him over other Republican candidates.

    George AngryDad

    March 18, 2016 at 6:44 am

    • Trump will carry the entire state outside of Albany, NYC and NYC suburbs by a huge margin. I think he’ll do ok, not great, in Albany and the NYC suburbs. He’ll win Staten Island and Long Island comfortably. It’s the other 4 burroughs that will give Trump the deficit to overcome. Of course, those are the same burroughs that voted for Republican mayors for 20 years. Not impossible.

      Andrew E.

      March 18, 2016 at 10:09 am

      • Current head to head polls are Hillary +17.

        That will narrow when some officials the stubborn cruzbots get serious. But it’s nowhere close and Hillary is over 50%.

        Honestly, I don’t think he can win NY, but he can force Hillary to spend time and $$ in the super expensive NYC market.


        March 18, 2016 at 12:39 pm

    • Two Siena polls have Trump losing New York to Clinton by more than 20 points.


      March 18, 2016 at 11:27 am

      • The Trump hate among SWPLs is immense. And social proof in NYC is 100% anti-Trump required. It’s not quite the level of Sarah Palin hate/contempt, but it’s up there. Somebody even made “punch Trump in the head” donuts. Needless to say, this kind of “hatred” is perfectly fine when directed at Trump.


        March 18, 2016 at 1:20 pm

    • Nope. Too many hardcore Democrats in NYC.

      But New Jersey is in reach. That would be a yuge Trump advantage. The main target states for Trump to turn a blue state red are MI and PA. NJ or NY would crack open the map we’ve been stuck with for 20 years.


      March 18, 2016 at 3:58 pm

  14. I mentioned a few postings back that Roger Stone of said delegates from open-primary states could be tossed out based on Rule 16(d). I finally tracked down that rule. In simple words, it says only registered Republicans shall participate in the primary elections. It says nothing about caucus states.

    Wikipedia lists 20 states as having primaries where someone who isn’t a registered Republican may vote in the Republican primary, however it is wrong. I don’t know the correct number. New Hampshire, for instance, though on the list of open-primary states, is not an open-primary state. You must be a registered Republican in New Hampshire to vote in the Republican primary. However you may legally register as a Republican immediately before you vote. Still, you technically satisfied the rule that you were a registered Republican at the time you voted.

    The Wikipedia entry with the incorrect list of open primaries:

    Here is a link to “The Rules of the Republican Party” where you can read Rule No. 16(d) for yourself:

    Mark Caplan

    March 18, 2016 at 7:57 am

  15. Report from flyover WNY: Trump will win huuuuge here!

    Bitter Clinger

    March 18, 2016 at 8:11 am

  16. Why would you be registered republican and live in NYC? The only races that matter are the D primaries.


    March 18, 2016 at 11:52 am

  17. Lion, let’s pray that this happens:

    Could be a total bust though.


    March 18, 2016 at 1:11 pm

  18. Would a Trump win cause a substantial number of SWPLs to move to Canada, thereby precipitating a housing crash in Manhattan and Brooklyn?


    March 18, 2016 at 7:35 pm

    • Many will not move to the Great White North. It’s really too cold for most of them.

      But quite a number of Canadian Cities are very much indeed Brooklyn-Bobo Certified, with a lower cost of living.


      March 18, 2016 at 8:13 pm

  19. I just saw that Carl Icahn had endorsed Trump in September.

    In the video, titled “Danger Ahead,” Icahn says that while he disagrees with Trump on “certain issues,” he believes America “needs somebody to wake it up.”

    “Maybe he’s brash, but he’s willing to say what he believes and he’s willing to say, ‘Hey, this is complete bulls—,’” Icahn said in the video, which is posted on his website. “The middle class guy who’s making $50,000 a year realizes ‘I’m being taken advantage of.’ He can read, he can understand.” ..

    “Thirty years, no tax reform, 30 years, no immigration, as a result you have this movement to a guy like Donald Trump because you want somebody who’s not beholden to an establishment,” Icahn said. “So you need a president that could move Congress, and I think Donald Trump could do it.”

    “I want to speak out now because, I know this may sound corny but I grew up in the streets of Queens,” Icahn said in his video. “I love this country and I feel so strongly abut the dysfunction that is going on both in Washington and the boardrooms of corporate America.”


    March 19, 2016 at 3:51 am

  20. Trump is prole, yes — yet, he is also a wealthy tycoon with luxurious Manhattan real estate, for many of Lion’s readers and others to die for. I’m sure many well to do SWPLs live in one of his buildings.

    It would be a travesty, and I think this has become one, that wealthy Manhattanites hate this SOB for a presidential candidate. Meanwhile Staten Island Guidos and low status nobodies in greater America, will be voting for him.

    This goes to show you, that politics has always been a sham for the masses!


    March 19, 2016 at 7:38 pm

  21. […] I previously explained: […]

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