Trump at 43% in new Rasmussen poll
The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely Republican Primary Voters finds Trump with 43% support to Senator Ted Cruz’s 28% and Ohio Governor John Kasich’s 21%. Just five percent (5%) of GOP voters like some other candidate, and three percent (3%) remain undecided.
It’s unlikely that Kasich voters will shift to Cruz or vice versa. They are at polar ends of the Republican spectrum.
The 8% of respondents who are supporting someone else or who are undecided are not numerous enough to put Cruz into first place even if they all switch to him, which is unlikely because some of them will switch to Kasich and some to Trump.
So this is good news for Trump, but it’s still worrisome for Trump given how close it’s going to be to get 1,237 delegates, plus it would be nice to have a buffer in order to counteract any GOPe dirty tricks to disqualify some delegates.
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I suspect that the vast majority of the 8% will NOT vote for Cruz. Cruz has reached his ceiling. I find it hard to believe that there are very many voters out there who can’t decide between Cruz and Kasich.
Some of the 8% includes people who will never vote for Trump but haven’t decided which not-Trump candidate to vote for. They will vote for Kasich.
Some of the 8% are simply low-information voters who genuinely haven’t thought much about who they will vote for. Most of these types will vote for Trump because he’s the leader.
Some of the 8% includes people who can’t decide between Cruz and Trump because they are angry and want an outsider and can’t decide between these two angry outsider candidates. Most of these types will vote for Trump because he’s the leader.
And finally, some of the 8% will stubbornly vote for one of the other candidates still left on the ballots, or simply not show up.