Lion of the Blogosphere

Trump at 43% in new Rasmussen poll

New Rasmussen national poll.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely Republican Primary Voters finds Trump with 43% support to Senator Ted Cruz’s 28% and Ohio Governor John Kasich’s 21%. Just five percent (5%) of GOP voters like some other candidate, and three percent (3%) remain undecided.

It’s unlikely that Kasich voters will shift to Cruz or vice versa. They are at polar ends of the Republican spectrum.

The 8% of respondents who are supporting someone else or who are undecided are not numerous enough to put Cruz into first place even if they all switch to him, which is unlikely because some of them will switch to Kasich and some to Trump.

So this is good news for Trump, but it’s still worrisome for Trump given how close it’s going to be to get 1,237 delegates, plus it would be nice to have a buffer in order to counteract any GOPe dirty tricks to disqualify some delegates.

* * *

I suspect that the vast majority of the 8% will NOT vote for Cruz. Cruz has reached his ceiling. I find it hard to believe that there are very many voters out there who can’t decide between Cruz and Kasich.

Some of the 8% includes people who will never vote for Trump but haven’t decided which not-Trump candidate to vote for. They will vote for Kasich.

Some of the 8% are simply low-information voters who genuinely haven’t thought much about who they will vote for. Most of these types will vote for Trump because he’s the leader.

Some of the 8% includes people who can’t decide between Cruz and Trump because they are angry and want an outsider and can’t decide between these two angry outsider candidates. Most of these types will vote for Trump because he’s the leader.

And finally, some of the 8% will stubbornly vote for one of the other candidates still left on the ballots, or simply not show up.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

March 18, 2016 at 1:01 pm

Posted in Politics

39 Responses

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  1. Article discussing the rules committee includes comments from insiders. It’s fascinating stuff. Suggests there’s no unanimous opinion. They appear to be divided as well.


    March 18, 2016 at 2:50 pm

  2. Many people, like Diamond and Silk, know instinctively that Trump is their once-in-a-lifetime candidate who will actually put the interests of the nation above his/her own career aspirations, wealth accumulation, and even party ideologies, unlike the typical modi operandi of both parties. When they hear him speak, they can sense the genuineness and passion in the man. He cares about competence, making smart deals and getting things done (the guy is a doer, not a talker) and will work tirelessly to rebuild the country. A smart workaholic all his life, he will get them done under budget and ahead of schedule, like his other projects.

    Contrast that with Hillary and Cruz. Do the people sense that they genuinely care about them or the country? When you hear them speak and gesture, you get the feeling that they are acting a part, and very poor acting at that. The gestures are so exaggerated and the words so calculated that the performance appears fake. It’s more comical if you turn off the volume.


    March 18, 2016 at 2:56 pm

    • “unlike the typical modi operandi of both parties”

      Looks like someone has studied their Latin singular and plurals.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      March 18, 2016 at 5:43 pm

      • “Looks like someone has studied their Latin singular and plurals…”

        Ma Schlomcha, amico.


        March 19, 2016 at 3:53 am

  3. At this point, what needs to have been said is said. You hope Cruz loses in Arizona (where Lyin’ Ted is campaigning hard to close the border) which knocks Cruz out of the possibility of a delegate win.

    Then you hope Cruz drops out. Cruz isn’t going to win a contested convention just like Trump isn’t going to win one.

    OT: Trump picked up 3 of Rubio’s 5 delegates in Alaska.


    March 18, 2016 at 3:03 pm

  4. Cruz has been getting like 20% or less with non-evangelicals. Most of the rest of the primaries are on the west coast and in the northeast. I don’t think he’s got much of a chance.


    March 18, 2016 at 4:03 pm


    Very stupid of them. They should wait & see if he is even the nominee. But wisdom isn’t one of their signal traits.


    March 18, 2016 at 4:07 pm

    • If he hasn’t already, Obama should say the Republican party is doing to the Donald what they’re doing to his Supreme Court nominee. They rejected the nominee sight unseen, and they’re blocking Trump before he even reaches the requisite number of delegates.

      A columnist at National Review is saying the party should “steal” Trump’s nomination. I mean, that’s the word he’s using. I expected to see him frame it as stealing the nomination “back,” but no.


      March 18, 2016 at 11:00 pm

  6. If he can’t lock up the Republican nomination this far into it than what hope does he have in the national election? He’s way behind in every Trump/Clinton matchup poll.

    Lloyd Llewellyn

    March 18, 2016 at 4:54 pm

    • There is a slim hope that Rodham-Clinton will be indicted for breaking all those government worker e-mail laws, or she will suffer some kind of physical collapse, or people will sour on her when Trump reminds them she enabled her rapist of a husband, lied about Benghazi and a host of other things, has screwed up every job she has had (health reform in the ’90s, conqueror of Libya and negotiator with Russia during the Obama admin) and is only rich and famous because she has a sham marriage with a cunning creep.


      March 18, 2016 at 7:57 pm

      • I don’t know if you’re being sarcastic but the chance of any of those things happening is genuinely slim, especially if all Trump can offer is shallow insults and not a mastery of actual policy.

        Lloyd Llewellyn

        March 19, 2016 at 12:05 am

  7. All the hate heaped on Trump stems from misogyny. Trump is the most feminine of all the candidates, according to a prominent linguist:

    Mark Caplan

    March 18, 2016 at 6:53 pm

  8. OT: I bought a 16-foot/75-HP boat today. I guess that might be kind of prole.

    E. Rekshun

    March 18, 2016 at 9:07 pm

    • I hope it bring you the self-actualization you are looking for.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      March 18, 2016 at 9:20 pm

    • Einstein loved to sail. Was he a prole?


      March 18, 2016 at 9:21 pm

      • Traditional sailing is very upper class. Motor-boating or pontoon boating is prole.


        March 18, 2016 at 9:44 pm

      • hell no, sailing is elitist.

        Mrs Stitch

        March 18, 2016 at 9:46 pm

      • That’s what I thought. I did it once when I was a kid and had a fantastic time. This was the old fashioned sailing, not motorized. I did get very wet though. Actually, that was the best part — getting wet.


        March 18, 2016 at 10:46 pm

      • You don’t just jump in a sailboat, turn the key and off you go…
        Sailing is much harder than powerboating and requires work and thought.
        Sailing is also quiet, much slower, and can be quite contemplative.
        Proles, in general, don’t like slow, quiet, or too much contemplatin’.
        Sailing actually requires some learned skills, or you will quickly get into trouble.
        Powerboats, not so much.

        Powerboats, besides being very noisy, are more on the order of driving a car without lanes,
        roadways, speed limits, or most other disciplines.
        I think apex-prole is the jet ski – These are very noisy, very fast, and require so little finesse to operate that hotels can rent them at various tourist destinations to completely inexperienced, numbskull tourists
        to annoy everyone else within earshot.

        These same divisions exist in fishing as well – See trout vs bass fishing.

        Nedd Ludd

        March 19, 2016 at 10:17 am

    • Isn’t there an old saying about the two happiest days in a man’s life? The day he buys a boat, and the day he sells it. Good luck with that.


      March 19, 2016 at 2:37 pm

  9. Hopefully, with this whole sex tape fiasco behind him, Hulk Hogan can now focus on his political career as Trump’s V.P.


    March 18, 2016 at 9:28 pm

  10. Trump is up to 49.7% in the Reuters tracking.


    March 18, 2016 at 9:36 pm

    • It’s all kind of fun, but I really don’t think that it has any relevance to a presidential election. Trump has a lot of negatives, and these are all going to be relentlessly magnified, and I think a lot of people are just going to say to themselves do they really want Donald Trump in the Oval Office? And of course you can’t underestimate the importance of unexpected events. There’s Russia, there’s Turkey, there’s Syria…


      March 18, 2016 at 10:05 pm

      • What are all these negatives? Effing up Libya? Unexpected events like muzzie terrorism? And Russia, Turkey and Syria aren’t mysteries, except if you’re John Kerry. Then again, the NYPD is confused about stuff closer to home


        March 18, 2016 at 11:13 pm

      • Trump has a lot of negatives, and these are all going to be relentlessly magnified, and I think a lot of people are just going to say to themselves do they really want Donald Trump in the Oval Office?

        General election polls at this early point mean nothing; they are especially useless with such an unorthodox candidate as Trump.

        Hillary has more downside than Trump does. Firstly, Trump’s favorables will improve as the Republican voters of other candidates rally to the front runner. Secondly, the establishment of both parties has already used most of their ammunition on Trump – they even deployed the pope against him. They’ve failed and it’s hard now to see what else they can use that would be original.

        On the other end, Hillary has high unfavorables despite fawning media attention and softball questions, a Democrat primary process rigged to hand her the nomination, and before the case against her has been built. When that case begins to be made Trump will have no shortage of scandals and policy positions to base it on.

        The Undiscovered Jew

        March 19, 2016 at 12:08 pm

  11. What the hell is the deal with Kasich? I thought they just used him to cockblock Ohio but that clueless fuck is still in the race. He has one state! Why is he still running?

    Joshua Sinistar

    March 18, 2016 at 11:16 pm

  12. And Lion, if you’re home, hope you’re getting tanked. Shite, I’d send you booze if I could, since you’re out of a job and all. Never hurts to have copious amounts of booze. You should do what that Steve Sailer guys does, with a PO Box and all. The USPS bruthas could probably get a 40 oz into them.


    March 18, 2016 at 11:39 pm

  13. “I believe Donald Trump may be the greatest POTUS since Ronald Reagan” – Newt Gingrich (2day on Sean Hannity’s radio program.


    March 19, 2016 at 4:11 am

  14. Is anyone here a closet Trump fan? I live in New Zealand and pretty much every Facebook comment I see regarding the US election is anti-Trump. Of course, that probably reflects the fact that most of my friends are liberal, but also that their knowledge of the election is based on biased news reporting & hit pieces like John Oliver’s misleading attack. I wouldn’t dare share a pro-Trump article on Facebook, although maybe I should stand up for him more.


    March 19, 2016 at 4:15 am

    • I’ve supported Trump since I saw his announcement speech last May. You’re right that the news is biased. The political class is terrified he’s going to undermine the stranglehold they have on power. Not just in America but overseas as well. If Trump is elected the chance of other candidates doing the same thing in other countries increases dramatically.


      March 19, 2016 at 8:47 am

    • Most of use have already come out. And if your lib friends want a bit more diversity, let me know. I’ll send some down.


      March 19, 2016 at 10:39 am

  15. GOPe dirty tricks dep’t:

    GOP ‘ringer’ plants have been slowly emplaced in the Libertarian State parties for years, and are now flooding into state Libertarian party conventions, causing this statement from an LP Chair candidate and former Vice Chair: and LP California

    Usually this is done just to screw up LP operations (in Florida they ran off with the entire member list and the state party is run by 2 GOP operatives IMHO) , but if the GOPe wants to Hail-Mary run someone third party, the LP alone has 50-state ballot access. There’re complaints ‘conservatarians’ are already poised to seize control of the Platform and Rules Committees of the National Convention to allow a flood of ‘bused-in’ phony delegates who could then select whoever they liked and change the platform, and these types are already floating the idea of Romney, Kasich, or Cruz as a ‘practical Libertarian’ candidate.

    Trump’s past advisor, anti-Libertarian conspiracy writer Roger Stone, suddenly left Trump while positioning himself as a born-again Libertarian in Florida (where they’ll be holding the LP National Convention) to, presumably, monitor what’s going on. The whole thing is self-destructively delusional as only the ‘me-too’ conservative GOPe knows how to be since 1932.

    Friends of mine in the Green Party are also reporting similar disturbances, though the GOPe angle here is to usually use the Greens to attack the Dem candidate. If the Greens had 50-state access like the diligent LP Libertarians, we might also see Romney floated as a ‘viable Green’ candidate as well. I would pay serious money to see that hat trick.

    Good times.


    March 19, 2016 at 4:22 am

    • How incompetent are the libertardians that they can’t even protect their own party from a half assed, GOPe, hostile takeover? What a bunch of clowns.

      Otis the Sweaty

      March 19, 2016 at 10:00 am

      • Otis the Sweaty Clown: Very simple, as you know: State laws written by the GOPe and DEMe. Even when the LP wins in the courts, they just keep writing them to waste the LP’s money in its efforts keeping some kind of ballot access open for everybody. Nothing half-assed about it: they spend millions on these shenanigans to suppress groups like the LP.

        The GOP and Dems do this to each other as well, but it really hurts small and independent candidates. So wise up, Otistardian.


        March 19, 2016 at 4:50 pm

  16. GOPe Dirty Tricks II:

    GOP elder urges third-party GOP run, even if it means taking a ‘Dive for Clinton.’ Since it’s impossible now to meet new party/candidate ballot requirements in many if not most states, this means a Libertarian Party takeover, as it alone has 50-state ballot access.

    This guy is also a former Clinton adviser.

    Good times.


    March 19, 2016 at 5:18 am

    • The Republicans coming out hard against Trump are either CLIMPs, Neocon ideologues, Cucks or TruCons. Of those groups, only the CLIMPs are part of the establishment, and a mostly powerless part at that. What is amazing is that the GOPe has seemingly mostly made peace with a Trump nomination but certain powerless figures have decided to go down with the #NeverTrump ship.

      And that is a good thing. We need to purge people like Erick Erickson, the National Review, RedState, the think tanks and NeoCons from the party. GOPe we can work with, even the CLIMPs, but Neocons, Cucks and TruCons must be destroyed completely.

      Otis the Sweaty

      March 19, 2016 at 10:11 am

  17. Another analysis looking at swing states which predicts Trump will almost certainly beat Hillary Clinton.


    March 19, 2016 at 5:50 am

  18. Any thoughts on Trump’s ubiquitous “I LOVE YOU” on twitter?

    Hard to imagine any of the other candidates being able or willing to say I love you constantly.

    slithy toves

    March 19, 2016 at 8:51 am

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