Lion of the Blogosphere

Trump can beat Hillary because white men won’t vote for her

Two articles in the New York Times: One from yesterday and one from three days ago.

1. John Harwood explains that Trump can beat Hillary if he captures 4% more of the white vote than Romney captures in 2012.

2. Hillary does very poorly among white men.

“She’s talking to minorities now, not really to white people, and that’s a mistake,” said Dennis Bertko, 66, a construction project manager in Youngstown, Ohio, as he sipped a draft beer at the Golden Dawn Restaurant in a downtrodden part of town. “She could have a broader message. We would have listened.”

And the articles don’t even mention the black vote. Blacks love Donald Trump also. No, Trump isn’t going to win even close to a majority of the black vote, but if he wins 15% instead of the 6% that Romney won in 2012, then he doesn’t need to capture a full extra 4% of the white vote.

Also, Trump’s victories in Hawaii and the Northern Mariana Islands indicate that Trump does well with the Asian and Pacific Islander votes.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

March 18, 2016 at 9:22 am

Posted in Politics

36 Responses

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  1. Of course Trump would beat her. The GOPe would rather have her in office than him.


    March 18, 2016 at 9:38 am

  2. “Of course Trump would beat her. The GOPe would rather have her in office than him.”

    False. Categorically false. That is just the CLIMPs and probably only a minority of them at that.

    Otis the Sweaty

    March 18, 2016 at 10:05 am

  3. Lion, I think you would enjoy playing with this app at the bottom of this RealClearPolitics article. It lets you come up with theoretical percentages of how much each candidate will win of the popular vote, as sorted by racial groups, and creates an electoral college scenario for you:


    March 18, 2016 at 10:06 am

    • And indeed, the magic tool shows that if Trump wins an extra 3% of the white vote, and 15% instead of 6% of the black vote, he wins the election, everything else (support and racial turnout) being equal.

      However, I also think that a Trump election would see grater white turnout and less black turnout, helping Trump.

      Simply increasing white turnout by 2% and decreasing black turnout by 3% (which is likely), and still assuming that Trump wins 15% of the black vote, then Trump only needs to win an extra 2% of the white vote.

      This is all very likely. Blacks are not excited about Hillary the way they were excited about Obama, but whites are very very excited about Trump.

      The Hispanic vote is the wildcard. Will Hispanics not hate Trump as much as they are supposed to because proles love Trump? Or will the media convince Hispanics that Trump is racist against them, and the Hispanics, who historically have very low voter turnout, show up in droves to vote against him?

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      March 18, 2016 at 10:15 am

      • “Or will the media convince Hispanics that Trump is racist against them”

        How is the Spanish language media treating Trump? The Mexers don’t sit around watching the evening news. They watch telenovelas on Univision.


        March 18, 2016 at 10:24 am

      • I listen to Spanish radio a lot and the coverage has been generally negative in the “he’s insane” [and not so much “he’s racist”] sense. They gave a lot of coverage to his penis size issue.

        However celebrities, even radio personalities, tend to be liberal.

        slithy toves

        March 18, 2016 at 10:47 am

      • Honestly, Lion, I think it’s fantasy land to think that Trump will get 15% of the black vote.

        I don’t think it’s fantasy land to project that black turnout will be very depressed – they are already doing analyses of the extremely tepid black support now. (Except, I guess, for nice black 75 year old church ladies, not exactly a growing demographic.)

        I particularly believe – and it’s just a belief – that black men will stay the eff home and see what the Big Man has for them, for four years. If he’s a disaster, he can always be fired.

        That’s practical.

        BTW, it would be wonderful if there’s some havoc in NYC tomorrow:


        March 18, 2016 at 1:10 pm

      • I think one should operate on the base assumption that Trump would win fewer Hispanic votes than Romney. Not zero, just less.

        One doesn’t need to widely speculate about this sort of thing, either. There are lots of polls on how different groups think about the candidates.


        March 18, 2016 at 1:27 pm

      • gothamette:

        I was at Trump Tower the other day to sign a volunteer agreement. There were a few Black church-lady types in line, but zero Black men. Most of the line was well put together middle-class White proles. No underclass types.

        Professional Pleb

        March 18, 2016 at 6:46 pm

      • That only proves that black church lady types tend to volunteer for things, not that many of them are going to vote for Trump. And what about black men? They stayed home in droves during the last mayoral election. Wilhelm was elected by black women. Black men went for Thompson, in the primary, and when he lost to Wilhelm, they stayed home.


        March 18, 2016 at 7:18 pm

      • However, I also think that a Trump election would see grater white turnout and less black turnout, helping Trump.

        And black turnout in 2008 and 2012 was exceptional Quite unlikely Hillary matches it. Combined with higher white turnout, Trump’s general election odds are no worse than 50-50.

        The Undiscovered Jew

        March 18, 2016 at 8:11 pm

      • Lion, I think it’s fantasy land to think that Trump will get 15% of the black vote.

        It’s very possible. Every Republican nominee since Reagan has won 12-15%, even incompetents like GWB. Blacks voted almost 100% for Obama purely out of racial solidarity that won’t translate to an old, white feminist.

        The Undiscovered Jew

        March 18, 2016 at 8:14 pm

      • Well Bernie Sanders seems to have a tough time peeling black voters from her. They’re not THAT desperate for an alternative, clearly.


        March 19, 2016 at 1:15 am

      • “It’s very possible. Every Republican nominee since Reagan has won 12-15% [of the black vote], even incompetents like GWB.” -UDJ

        That range seemed awfully high…

        Gallup’s website has the black vote back back to 2000 (prior to that all nonwhite is lumped together).

        Percentage Black vote for the Republican candidate:

        2000 – 3%
        2004 – 7%
        2008 – 1%
        2012 – 5%


        March 19, 2016 at 5:22 am

      • That range seemed awfully high…

        I’ve seen other articles where exit polls have the Democrats usually winning 88 to 85% of blacks.

        Also the Gallup website has Bush and Romney winning 57% of whites in 2012. I thought Romney and Bush in those years both won 61%?

        The Undiscovered Jew

        March 19, 2016 at 11:52 am

  4. I’m not worried about Trump beating Hillary. Hillary is vulnerable in a thousand ways, but the media won’t focus their beams on her because she’s their candidate, and for reason I can’t explain gay men love love love her. But once Trump begins to fire away at Hillary he will expose her weaknesses. Their debate could be hilarious (though treacherous because the moderators will be 100% in the tank for Hillary — predicted question: “Mr. Trump, will you turn and face Hillary now, and explain to her why you hate women?”).

    No, my worry is the GOPe stealing the nomination from Trump. There is no level those vermin won’t sink to.


    March 18, 2016 at 10:08 am

    • “vermin” – hah, you’re part of The Savage Nation aren’t you?


      March 18, 2016 at 1:07 pm

  5. Here is my take on hispanics in my family and trump so far. So far the ones that have manual labor jobs are voted for him. They are the ones that have to compete with illegals in the job market. Trump can really appeal to them. The more college educated ones voted for Sanders and really hate Hillary. So out of the votes i know Trump got 4 Sanders 2 and 1 not liking Trump but probably voting for him because her husband make 300k a year.

    Sean c

    March 18, 2016 at 11:16 am

    • 1. what type of Hispanic are you (i.e. Mexican, PR, Cuban, etc.)?

      2. Why do they hate Hillary? This seems to be common amongst a lot of Hispanics and I don’t get it.

      Otis the Sweaty

      March 18, 2016 at 11:34 am

      • I am not Hispanic, but my wife, sister in law, and son in law are of Mexican descent. People need to understand that the Mexicans that have become citizens do not all want to have to compete with new arrivals for jobs in construction or out in the fields. They know the effect that they have on their wages. If Republicans were smart they could easily form a wedge between the citizen versus noncitizen of Mexican descent.

        As for Hillary, they do not like all her scandals and there is something about her personality that puts them off. The way she talks and acts.

        Sean C

        March 18, 2016 at 2:10 pm

      • ‘As for Hillary, they do not like all her scandals and there is something about her personality that puts them off. The way she talks and acts.’

        Yes, Mrs. B.J. Cankles speaks like a shrill, ballbusting shrew, and Mexican women know (because it’s true) that a woman is happiest and belongs in the kitchen, in the home, raising children and grandchildren and great grandchildren. B.J. Cankles is revolting to people with normal priorities.


        March 18, 2016 at 6:40 pm

  6. Trump has surged 7 points nationally in the latest Rassmussen poll and 5 points nationally in the latest Ipsos/Reuters poll. I wonder if it is because of the Chicago riots, his more measured performance in the last debate, his big victories, or some type of combination of the factors.

    Otis the Sweaty

    March 18, 2016 at 11:53 am

    • I am part of that surge. I was indifferent to Trump or thought him a buffoon, and now I see that the worst scum on Earth hate hate hate Trump with literally murderous passion, and so I love him because he makes the best enemies; and ye shall know a man by the enemies he makes. In my book, that makes Trump a great man. God bless Donald Trump — I hope no one murders him before the election.


      March 18, 2016 at 6:44 pm

  7. Gender gaps go both ways. Some women will be drawn to Trump as the alpha male. Unfortunately, I suspect that there are a lot of single, bitter, cat ladies out there who may move away from him.


    March 18, 2016 at 1:06 pm

    • Yeah but single bitter cat ladies were going to vote for Hillary anyway, regardless of who the GOP candidate is.

      Mike Street Station

      March 18, 2016 at 1:59 pm

    • “… there are a lot of single, bitter, cat ladies out there… ”

      Another consequence of feminism.

      Lewis Medlock

      March 18, 2016 at 2:39 pm

  8. Black turnout is very low for hillary compared to obama turnout. Drops by as much as 40%.

    slithy toves

    March 18, 2016 at 1:20 pm

  9. Trump’s going to win anyway. Black Americans should vote for him to help give him a buffer. Then they can say they helped.


    March 18, 2016 at 1:36 pm

  10. Both Trump and Hillary are polarizing figures. They both have very high negatives.

    Trump has strongly motivated supporters but he also has strongly motivated opponents. Trump will motivate higher turnout by his supporters, but he will also motivate higher turnout by his opponents.

    A lot of traditional Democratic supporters do not like Hillary, especially young voters, but faced with the choice of Trump or Hillary, I’m guessing most will vote for Hillary.

    Some Republicans do not like Trump. I’m guessing most of those will not vote for Hillary. They will either not vote or vote for a 3rd party candidate.

    Trump not only has to attract a few more white men, he has to hold on to traditional Republicans that currently hate or fear him. Trump also needs to do as well or better with women. Romney only got 45% of women. Trump cannot afford to do worse than that with women.


    March 18, 2016 at 1:45 pm

  11. I don’t think mitt Romney is comparable to trump.

    Trump has the Alex Jones crowd on his side, this group typically does not vote!

    Romney also had a large group of whites who hated him.

    These are the whites that he screwed over when bain capital performed hostile takeovers and did mass lay offs, wage cutting, benefit cutting.

    This was bain capitals business plan, buy up 51% of a company, outsource as much as possible, do as much wage cutting, benefit cutting as you can, fire the entire research and development staff.

    Next couple of quarters the financial analyst looks at the companies financial info, sees that they are making record profit and the stock price explodes, gain capital walks away with millions.

    In this process mitt screwed over a lot of white men by sending steel mills to China, and destroying long term company success for shirt term etc…..

    Romney also came off to many well educated Republicans as a ignorant plutocrat and vulture capitalist.

    Trump on the other hand has a large group of people who hate him and they refuse to argue and instead just scream racist or sexist over and over again.

    Hbd investor

    March 18, 2016 at 2:13 pm

  12. It’s an exaggeration to that blacks love Trump based on Diamond & Silk. I think they are sincere, but outliers, and likely they are on the payroll.


    March 18, 2016 at 4:09 pm

  13. “She could have a broader message. We would have listened.”

    For me this just sums up democracy. People have become entirely comfortable with the idea that politicans are pliable, flexible creatures free of any core beliefs or values. Rather than expecting the leader of their Nation to embody a particular worldview or set of ideas, it’s considered perfectly acceptable that they will trim and tailor their ‘message’ and calibrate their opinions simply for the sake of getting into office. This guy might as well be talking about a breakfast cereal or a soft drink company’s attempt to get a larger market share. ‘They could have changed the recipe. We would have tried it.’ Hating traditional white American culture and it’s people not working out in the polls? Hey, why not try NOT hating them!

    So this is the basis on which the white voting men of America will decide on the kind of nation they bequeath to their grandchildren? Much as I want to be on the side of ‘Joe Sixpack’, guns, flags and all, (and his European equivalents) sometimes I just feel like saying ‘oh, for fuck’s sake. Fuck the fucking lot of you.’

    prolier than thou

    March 18, 2016 at 4:14 pm

    • The values of democracy — i.e., listening, compromise, moderation, and humility in the pursuit of gaining popularity — are the values of a good life. The values of tyranny — stubbornness, bossiness, violence, and ignorance — are the values of a dysfunctional and miserable one.


      March 19, 2016 at 10:13 am

  14. And even Trump’s famously high unfavorable numbers are turning around: Gallup’s tracking poll of Republicans and leaners shows that his net favorable numbers have surged 14 percentage points in the past two weeks, vaulting him past Cruz.
    “It’s coming together in my opinion and will continue to do so,” said Jonathan Barnett, an influential Republican National Committee member from Arkansas. “Everyone likes a winner.”


    March 18, 2016 at 5:50 pm

  15. Don’t forget young White WOMEN. They have zero love for Mrs. B.J. Cankles. She appeals only to old, bitter, lonely feminists and of course the swarthies, who vote D because gibs.


    March 18, 2016 at 6:34 pm

  16. Those protesters at the Trump event were shipped in and paid for by someone but that sort of person has more in common with Trump policies than Hillary policies. He’s anti-bankster, anti-offshoring, and anti uncontrolled immigration (the left elite doesn’t want to admit that perhaps a majority of the Left is opposed to uncontrolled immigration). Trump needs to make it clear to this type that he should be their choice.


    March 19, 2016 at 12:37 pm

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