Lion of the Blogosphere

The two most powerful forces at the Republican convention

They are (1) Cruz supporters; and (2) the RNC establishment.

The Cruz supporters are the most dangerous to Trump. They will use any dirty trick available to get their guy nominated.

The RNC establishment (let’s call them the RNCe) is a distinct subset of the GOPe. The never-Trumpers within the GOPe are not from the RNCe. The RNCe is protective of the Republican organization, to which they owe their positions. Unlike certain never-Trumpers, the very last thing the RNCe wants is for there to be any sort of third party candidacy, whether from Cruz, Trump, or anyone else.

The RNCe has no love for Trump, but they also have no love for Cruz and they genuinely value the perception that the convention process is fair. Thus they will certainly not support any dirty tricks that would result in the perception that Cruz stole the nomination from Trump (because that would result in a weaker Republican Party and a nominee they still don’t like and who can’t beat Hillary unless she dies from a stroke before the election and even then Cruz still might lose).

If Trump simply comes to the convention with fewer than 1,237 delegates, they would prefer that either Trump wins or nobody wins rather than Cruz wins the first ballot. After the first ballot they would prefer that someone more moderate comes in to take the nomination. Someone like Susana Martinez, or any of the other not-Cruz possibilities I mentioned in that blog post.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

March 19, 2016 at 11:43 am

Posted in Politics

39 Responses

Subscribe to comments with RSS.

  1. Bretibart has put useful together a list of Trump supporters among conservative figures.

    Interesting to speculate on what they have in common.


    March 19, 2016 at 12:15 pm

    • They’re all proles?


      March 19, 2016 at 12:47 pm

  2. To maintain the political independence of the FBI, I think Comey is going to recommend Hillary be indicted but only he really knows and is probably having a hard time sleeping at night? The Republican establishment can use that media circus to get the nominee they want. Conspiracy or political surrender….who knows?


    March 19, 2016 at 12:16 pm

    • He’d be excoriated by the media if he did that. “What are you trying to do, throw the election to the next Hitler?” The blowback from the DC media complex would probably be as bad or worse as what happened to Kenneth Starr.

      People say Comey is a straight shooter, but it’d make his life a lot easier if he let Hillary skate with a “gravely disappointed” reprimand.


      March 19, 2016 at 12:43 pm

      • I think he had to do the recommendation for indictment to show the political independence of the FBI which is more important than any politician. He is a Republican and willing to take the political heat though he will have to probably resign.


        March 19, 2016 at 1:06 pm

      • They will probably indict a few underlings like Huma Abedin or Cheryl Mills. Then Hillary can make a statement about being very disappointed and let the process go forward. But I just can’t see a scenario where Hillary gets an indictment.

        Mike Street Station

        March 19, 2016 at 3:27 pm

      • There will be no indictment because Hillary has Obama’s ‘lay down your arms’ order from the Bengazhi seige sitting in a computer somewhere. And that’s probably just for starters, who knows what other kind of dirt she has collected on Obama while she was SoS.

        The Undiscovered Jew

        March 19, 2016 at 6:31 pm

  3. This morning I was listening to a radio interview with an unpledged delegate from Wyoming, who said he had been contacted by several campaigns, especially Cruz, about giving them his vote. According to him, the Trump campaign hadn’t reached out at all.

    Cruz won’t need to play dirty tricks if Trump isn’t even playing the game, and he better because it’s going to be dicey whether he can even achieve 1,237 delegates through the ballot box.


    March 19, 2016 at 12:37 pm

  4. Trump’s feud with Megyn Kelly continues to rage. It’s so silly and petty. Why is he so pathologically obsessed with anyone who says anything even slightly critical of him?


    March 19, 2016 at 12:44 pm

    • Don’t think so 2D. Trump is trying to show Murdoch and Ailes who’s boss. And he does that by going after their prize jewel, Kelly. A media creation of Murdoch and Ailes straight out of the playbook of Golden Age Hollywood studio bosses and their starlets.

      Andrew E.

      March 19, 2016 at 1:44 pm

      • “Showing who’s boss” to what end, exactly?

        This is hardly going to get him BETTER press from the network.


        March 19, 2016 at 7:36 pm

    • Simple – Kelly is clearly and obviously in the tank against him, and runs the most petty and ridiculous stories against him. I used to actually like and respect her, but her antics are hard to swallow. She needs to get over herself, not plant herself in the middle of the story.

      Trump is Trump. He will say outrageous things. I believe he suffers from a form of Tourette’s, and Kelly focuses pretty much entirely on his Tourette-like emissions. Making fun of cripples doesn’t appeal to me, at least.


      March 19, 2016 at 2:33 pm

      • Agreed.


        March 19, 2016 at 6:24 pm

  5. Forget this “moderate third person is going to get the nomination” crap. Not going to happen. It would enrage the voters and destroy the party. It will be Trump or Cruz. All the RNCe and GOPe can do now is force a VP choice on Trump or Cruz as the price of their support.


    March 19, 2016 at 1:17 pm

    • The only reason we are still discussing this “will he, won’t he” situation is because the MM have an interest in spinning this out as long as possible for their own benefit. Notice how they never seem to show you an analysis of upcoming contests, because it would demonstrate how Trump is strolling to a comfortable win.

      A major British bookmaker has already paid out on the bet that Trump wins the nomination. I can assure you that they don’t just give money away for free. Barring an earth-shattering event, Trump WILL win.

      Do the right thing – just turn off your TV when they start on this contested convention garbage.


      March 19, 2016 at 3:07 pm

      • I don’t think this thing is in the bag yet at all. Not like every prior election I’ve seen. It really is up in the air this time, because of the number of closed primaries that Cruz could win.

        Cui bono doesn’t explain everything.

        Mrs Stitch

        March 19, 2016 at 9:27 pm

  6. The RNCe has a rather easy-to-attain objective: pour money and endorsements on Cruz to deny Trump a first-round nomination. That’s all they have to do to crown their preferred candidate, probably ¡Jeb¡ or tMittt (those are Christian crosses on both sides of “Mitt”). It’s telling that ¡Jeb¡’s brother Neil Bush has joined Cruz’s inner circle.

    Mark Caplan

    March 19, 2016 at 1:21 pm

    • It’s not that simple. A lot of the establishment surrendered after their $63 million worth of attack ads didn’t stop Trump last week. They realize it’s over. But there are still some die-hards willing to burn the house down to stop Trump and/or elect Cruz.

      Neil Bush is on the Cruz team. But George(43) hates Cruz.


      March 19, 2016 at 10:40 pm

  7. Starslatecodex, a highbrow left-leaning website, has an interesting piece on Trump where they conclude that Trump would not tear the system apart, but on the contrary, would be the best person to work within the system to clean up the mess. General consensus seems to be that Trump would be a better-than-average President, which is surprising given the leanings of most of its readers.

    Here’s the money quote for me;
    “ Damn it, stop convincing me that a Trump Presidency would be awesome!”


    March 19, 2016 at 2:21 pm

    • Has Trump made a single deal during the course of this campaign?


      March 19, 2016 at 7:33 pm

      • He’s made a number of deals. Just by reading between the lines I’ve noticed several. But they’re not going to publicly announce it. That would be dumb.


        March 19, 2016 at 10:43 pm

  8. These protests are great. They play right into our hands.

    Otis the Sweaty

    March 19, 2016 at 2:26 pm

  9. They could not go with Susanna Martinez because she’s not vetted (this was one of the problems with Palin). If the RNC chooses anyone other Cruz, Trump or Kasich, then it’s going to be either Romney or Ryan. Still, choosing either Romney or Ryan could/would be disastrous since they never ran formal campaigns, and still have loser-stink from four years ago. It’s going to be either Cruz or Trump.


    March 19, 2016 at 2:33 pm

    • “this was one of the problems with Palin”

      You are assuming there that the GOPe learns from its mistakes.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      March 19, 2016 at 2:41 pm

      • Palin was not a mistake. McCain got more votes with her than he would have with some “safe” choice. If anything it should have been Palin-McCain not McCain-Palin.

        Also, since neither McCain nor the GOP actually wanted to win in 2008, the choice of Palin was basically irrelevant — but very possibly they believed the “unvetted” and inexperienced Palin would help them lose not help them win.

        This year, if the GOP manipulates things such that anyone but Trump is the candidate, even if it is Romney or Ryan, it is because they once again want to lose.


        March 19, 2016 at 4:56 pm

      • Regardless of who McCain picked for veep, George Bush was going to be his running mate.


        March 19, 2016 at 11:17 pm

  10. They fear Trump because he has enough Fuck You money so they can’t control him, but they HATE Cruz cause he still does the social issues they are trying to dump. Like Carson, Cruz is always going on about religion and morality and that just gives the GOPe the hives.
    I still expect these dummies to nominate Jeb from Motel Six. His brown boy Prescott is the guy they want to make the face of their Party. That will make just about all the voters walk away, but these dummies like Rover keep barking up that latino tree.

    Joshua Sinistar

    March 19, 2016 at 3:23 pm

    • i think they hate cruz on a personal level as well as what you just suggested. cruz has left a trail of people, from college to his profesional life to politics who all hate his guts.

      james n.s.w

      March 19, 2016 at 11:46 pm

  11. Shrewd analysis as always, Lion. BTW, REASON has Scott Addams on Trump Jedi Mind Tricks:


    March 19, 2016 at 4:23 pm

  12. Lion, I have 1500+ shares of Rob Portman and Joni Ernst for GOP VP on predict it. What do you think? I got my Portmans for 2 and Ernsts for 3. Both have refrained from speaking out against him and have voting records against amnesty.

    I think 20-1 odds it will be one of them is a pretty good bet. I am kind of on a winner’s high right now, I have more than doubled my initial $800 account funding betting big on Trump overall, and playing both Trump and Cruz on state primary votes. My biggest win was betting 3-1 for Cruz to win OK.


    March 19, 2016 at 6:22 pm

    • “What do you think?”

      Your talking your book.


      March 19, 2016 at 6:33 pm

      • Nope. I have about $130 invested in GOP VP market. Not worthwhile talking my book.

        Now if you want to accuse me of bragging for winning $400 on Cruz taking OK at 3-1 odds, you may be right!


        March 20, 2016 at 5:42 pm

  13. lion, OT, could we have made a lot of money betting against the south african currency, the rand? can we still? i am watching this video, SA is doing very badly.

    reminds me of just about the opposite of what you were saying about australia a while ago.


    March 19, 2016 at 6:42 pm

  14. I like this RNCe vs. GOPe distinction. It puts a nice label on what I’ve been saying about down-ticket Republicans that will have to live with disgruntled voters staying home in 2018, 2020, and maybe even into 2022 and 2024 vs. Beltway-establishment Republicans that get their funding from Wall Street and other Big-Capital (Pharma, Ag, Defense, etc.) sources that are not dependent on the local economy, local political events, or local control. The latter move seamlessly from govt jobs when their side wins to private industry sinecures when their side loses.

    Kasich and Jeb both “worked” at Lehman between their stints at the polls. Cruz’ wife works and Goldman. When Eric Cantor famously got sent packing, where did he land? Wall Street. It’s a completely different universe for those in the Beltway vs. those outside of it.


    March 19, 2016 at 6:47 pm

  15. Trump is right as usual. Romney is very unlikely to be a true Mormon, regardless of what he wears.


    March 19, 2016 at 8:25 pm

  16. People perceive there to be far more “never Trump” people than there actually are because so many of those people are in the GOPe & the media. And many of those people will vote for Trump nonetheless if he gets the nomination, just as I pinched my nose as I voted for McCain.

    Steven J.

    March 19, 2016 at 8:58 pm

    • At the end of the day most voters are pretty blindly loyal to one party or another. There’s been a lot of overblown rhetoric about how Trump is “killing” the GOP or whatever, but all he’s doing is winning the nomination in a relatively contentious primary, which isn’t very unprecedented.

      The vast majority of Republicans will vote for him. And they’ll vote for Republican candidates for House, Senate, etc etc. Trump is much less of a movement than the Tea Party. The Tea Party at least affected Congress.


      March 20, 2016 at 12:12 am

Comments are closed.

%d bloggers like this: