Lion of the Blogosphere

Polls: Trump looks good in Arizona, bad in Utah

Fox 10 Phoenix Arizona poll.

Trump 45.8
Cruz 33.3
Kasich 17.1
Undecided 3.8

Trump looks pretty strong, Cruz will need a lot of strength to catch up. And Trump will benefit from early voting, because many Mormon voters who would vote Cruz today (based on Romney’s directive to for Cruz) probably early-voted for Rubio.

Arizona is a winner-take-all state, so Trump looks good to win all 58 delegates.

* * *

Deseret News Utah poll.

Cruz 42
Trump 21
Rubio 17
Kasich 13
Undecided 7

Looks like Cruz is going to win more than 50% here in Utah, given his strength in caucuses and the likelihood that most of that Rubio vote is going to move over to Cruz. Winning more than 50% means that Cruz wins all of Utah’s 40 delegates.

* * *

After today’s vote, there’s a two week break and then a single primary in Wisconsin, which is a crucial state for Trump to pick up the plurality of the vote so he can win most of the delegates.

There hasn’t been a poll since February, which had Trump 30, Rubio 20, Cruz 18, Kasich 8, Carson 8. We must hope that the people previously supporting Rubio and Carson split their support three ways between Trump, Cruz and Kasich. And I think this will likely happen. Carson endorsed Trump, and most Rubio supporters don’t especially like Cruz that much.

* * *

And after Wisconsin there’s another 2-week break following by a single primary in New York where Trump polled 64%. If Trump can win 50% or more in every CD, he will win 100% of the delegates.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

March 22, 2016 at 12:54 am

Posted in Politics

5 Responses

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  1. One thing that could help Trump in Utah is that they’re allowing online voting. The conspiracy theorists have suggested that they’ll rig it against Trump, but I don’t think so–it isn’t worth the risk of getting caught for one small primary. It could help because at previous caucuses, there’s been pressure from the religious people to vote for the more socially conservative candidates–people go in wanting to vote for Trump, but get talked out of it. With online voting, there’s no social pressure. It also increases voter turnout, which helps Trump. I don’t think it’ll be enough to win, but it could be enough to help keep Cruz under 50%.


    March 22, 2016 at 2:33 am

  2. Trump is also looking very strong in national polls. He’s over 45% in the HuffPo tracker.

    Just win AZ and then we are in good shape. The stupid Mormons will give UT to Cruz but we knew to expect that. After that we are almost out of bad states. I think just NE, MT, WA and WY are left for Cruz after tomorrow. Trump will kill it in the mid atlantic/northeast.

    Otis the Sweaty

    March 22, 2016 at 4:27 am

  3. Haha! Feel the butthurt!

    Heritage Foundation meets with Trump today and RedState is NOT happy about it.

    The GOPe and the sensible TruCons are getting on the Trump train.

    Otis the Sweaty

    March 22, 2016 at 4:29 am

  4. Terrorist attack in Belgium. This could push Trump over 50 in AZ today.

    Otis the Sweaty

    March 22, 2016 at 6:07 am

  5. Wait! Lion, your VP candidate Romney campaigned with Kasich in Ohio and endorsed Cruz in Utah! Wow! What a flip-flopper, what a stupid party. I really don’t understand this: why a simple, uneducated, very modest IQ and intelligence guy like me always hated Romney and McCain, but a guy like you thinks that he is a good VP choice for Trump? Romney is a disaster – always was and always will be. I do get a lot of laughs listening to him talk about his religion, though.

    This guy talks more sense then all the talking heads on FOX and CNN. This is people talking finally.


    March 22, 2016 at 7:36 am

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