Polls: Trump looks good in Arizona, bad in Utah
Trump looks pretty strong, Cruz will need a lot of strength to catch up. And Trump will benefit from early voting, because many Mormon voters who would vote Cruz today (based on Romney’s directive to for Cruz) probably early-voted for Rubio.
Arizona is a winner-take-all state, so Trump looks good to win all 58 delegates.
* * *
Looks like Cruz is going to win more than 50% here in Utah, given his strength in caucuses and the likelihood that most of that Rubio vote is going to move over to Cruz. Winning more than 50% means that Cruz wins all of Utah’s 40 delegates.
* * *
After today’s vote, there’s a two week break and then a single primary in Wisconsin, which is a crucial state for Trump to pick up the plurality of the vote so he can win most of the delegates.
There hasn’t been a poll since February, which had Trump 30, Rubio 20, Cruz 18, Kasich 8, Carson 8. We must hope that the people previously supporting Rubio and Carson split their support three ways between Trump, Cruz and Kasich. And I think this will likely happen. Carson endorsed Trump, and most Rubio supporters don’t especially like Cruz that much.
* * *
And after Wisconsin there’s another 2-week break following by a single primary in New York where Trump polled 64%. If Trump can win 50% or more in every CD, he will win 100% of the delegates.