Lion of the Blogosphere

Emerson Wisconsin poll possibly bad news for Trump

Emerson College Polling Society hints that their Wisconsin poll, to be released later today, has bad news for Trump.

* * *

And the bad news is:

Cruz 36%
Trump 35%
Kasich 19%

However, in Arizona, Trump outperformed the polling average by 9 points, so maybe he can do it again in Wisconsin.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

March 23, 2016 at 3:06 pm

Posted in Politics

38 Responses

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  1. The emerson poll has Cruz up by 1 and the marquette poll has Trump up by 11. Regardless, emerson precedes Brussels. And I have a feeling we’ll be hearing a lot from Ryan and Walker before the primary. Ryan will bash Trump. Not sure about Walker. He took a hard line on immigration before he dropped. I guess we’ll get to see if it was for show or he really meant it.


    March 23, 2016 at 4:53 pm

    • Ryan’s covertly running for president. The speech he gave today was meant to position himself as a “unity” candidate who can calm the waters in the event of a brokered convention.


      March 23, 2016 at 8:03 pm

  2. Final poll is up. Cruz 36, Trump 35.


    March 23, 2016 at 4:54 pm

    • Emerson poll in Wisconsin: everyone needs to jump this early. In last poll a month agao Rubio had 20% and Cruz 19% with Trump in the mid-30’s. In the one they release today, Cruz is 36% and Trump 35% and Rubio has disappeared. So it looks like Emerson says that NOT ONE RUBIO vote went to Trump and 95% went the Cruz?? The rest to Kaisich? FRAUD FRAUD FRAUD. If Emerson has any stones, it will retract this obvious fraud/error.

      Thomas Lynch

      March 24, 2016 at 9:56 am

  3. New #Wisconsin presidential poll shows @tedcruz and @HillaryClinton running neck and neck if the match-up presents itself

    How is that possible?

    Cruz is a right wing religious nut with a very unappealing personality.

    Low information voters?

    So Cruz does better against Hillary than Trump? Is that due to a temper tantrum by TruCons?


    March 23, 2016 at 5:10 pm

    • Wisconsin has close ties to the establishment. Boehner, Ryan, etc. Wisconsin politicians know who butters their bread. They’ve all endorsed Cruz. But it’s not just the endorsements. With all that local support comes local connections ground game, etc. Whenever the local machine supports someone they get a boost.

      Lindsay Graham and Jeb Bush have both recently endorsed Cruz. I’m not sure I believe it. Or they’re just using that turd to stymie Trump. That may be the goal in Wisconsin.


      March 23, 2016 at 6:38 pm

  4. New #Wisconsin presidential poll:
    @tedcruz- 36%
    @realDonaldTrump- 35%
    @JohnKasich- 19%


    March 23, 2016 at 5:36 pm

  5. Off-topic, but PredictIt has a market for whether or not the Republican Party has a brokered convention, and the price doesn’t exactly line up with the price for Trump being the Republican nominee. Since nobody else has a serious path to the nomination without a brokered convention, there’s an arbitrage opportunity here.


    March 23, 2016 at 6:40 pm

  6. Wisconsin is a ways off. Trump knows how big it is, and that Cruz is the last thing in his way to securing 1237. I would be shocked if he didn’t decimate Cruz in the press and possibly even binge on ad money in the state.

    I predict Trump will win by 4 points, and the GOPe will blame Kasich for not pulling out and throwing his support to Cruz.

    Later, Cruz will cut a deal to drop out before the convention. Probably not securing a job for himself but in order to preserve his path to the nomination in 2020. He can’t be the guy who broke the party. He has to be seen as the guy who preserved it.


    March 23, 2016 at 6:49 pm

  7. Hellhouse

    March 23, 2016 at 7:21 pm

    • Flashback to summer of 2015: polls show Trump trailing badly being Jeb Bush.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      March 23, 2016 at 8:02 pm

      • because he turned things around before is no guarantee he’ll do it again. i hope otherwise, but it feels less and less likely trump can actually win this thing.

        james n.s.w

        March 23, 2016 at 9:35 pm

    • Polls in summer of 2015 showed Trump losing to Hillary. They still show that.


      March 23, 2016 at 11:28 pm

    • That’s why it’s vitally important that the Republicans stop this bullshit and start working Hillary.

      The more Hillary talks the more her poll numbers go down, but I guess instead we are still supposed to think that somebody like John Kasich is relevant.


      March 24, 2016 at 8:59 am

    • March polling means nothing:

      March 1948–Truman/Dewey 39/47
      March 1980—Reagan/Carter 33/58
      March 1992—Clinton/Bush 25/44
      March 2008—Obama/McCain 43/47


      March 24, 2016 at 9:29 pm

  8. With the Brussels attack Trump will outperform.


    March 23, 2016 at 7:21 pm

  9. Trump is getting in over his head with his empty threats to sue Cruz over his eligibility and to “spill the beans” on his wife. Same modus operandi as Trump’s 2011 claims of an imminent bombshell about Obama’s birth certificate (his investigators “cannot believe what they are finding” lol).

    This stuff diminishes Trump and makes him look lame. I voted for Trump in the primaries but strictly as a protest vote. Not because I think he’s going to be a great leader. Lion himself has called him a bozo and I assume he still believes that.


    March 23, 2016 at 7:59 pm

    • He would have been better off just running a Goldman Sachs ad against Cruz’s wife. Instead he says he MIGHT run something if Cruz doesn’t call off the attack ads against Melania, which the media reports as “Trump threatens Cruz’s wife”. It sounds awful, even though what Cruz & company have done is objectively worse. They actually did do an ad against Trump’s wife. But Trump had to do that thing of his where he bluffs with vague language, giving room for a hostile media to present in the most lurid form possible.

      Trump’s got high negatives and if he’s going to fix that before November, he’s got to stop giving the MSM the space to define him in a way that suits them.


      March 23, 2016 at 8:39 pm

      • The worst “dirt” on Heidi Cruz is that she was once suicidal.

        It’s beyond the pale for Trump to threaten to use that in an attack against Ted Cruz, particularly given the Super PAC that ran the ad he’s so annoyed about wasn’t even part of the Cruz campaign. (Though Trump, in that magical way of his, has just decided that it is, and that Cruz is a liar for claiming otherwise.)


        March 23, 2016 at 11:30 pm

      • If Cruz can’t even control his own super PAC, how can he deal with ISIS?

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        March 24, 2016 at 12:15 am

      • Stealing Carson votes in Iowa….not Cruz’s fault, that was CNN. Faking Rubio pictures with Obama in South Carolina…not Cruz’s fault, that was his spox Rick Tyler. Voting for TPP…not Cruz’s fault, McConnell lied to him. Supporting amnesty during Gang of Eight…..not Cruz’s fault, he was just trying to poison pill the bill. Melania Trump attack ads….Not Cruz’s fault, that was the Super PAC.

        Andrew E.

        March 24, 2016 at 12:25 am

      • “Make America Awesome Again” is not a pro-Cruz Super PAC, it’s an anti-Trump one. It pre-dates Cruz being in the final three. I think it’s actually associated with the Kaisch/Bush set.


        March 24, 2016 at 8:23 am

      • Today’s National Enquirer links Cruz to 5 mistresses.


        March 24, 2016 at 9:00 am

      • You can’t control a PAC…that’s coordination. Violation of campaign laws IIRC.

        Mrs Stitch

        March 24, 2016 at 5:12 pm

  10. Wisconsin awards delegates based on congressional district, each district is winner take all. Trump could still win most delegates based on district if he performs well broadly across the state even if he loses the state by a small margin.

    The Undiscovered Jew

    March 23, 2016 at 8:30 pm

    • A lot more is at stake than delegates. If Trump can’t win Wisc, a state with few stupid Christians/Mormons, in a 3 way race that shows that that GOP voters do not want Trump.

      One prob people are overlooking is that there is going to be a recession in the next presidential term. Do we want a recession happening under Trump or under Hillary? Prob is best for us long term if Trump is robbed of the nom, Hillary becomes Pres, and then let a combination of recession, Islamic terrorism and Hillary’s incompetence and loathsomeness to discredit the Democratic party.

      Otis the Sweaty

      March 24, 2016 at 7:51 am

      • Didn’t that already happen with Obama? If the GOPe won’t rally behind the candidate the voters want, we will continue to be stuck with Democrats.

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        March 24, 2016 at 10:11 am

      • Emphasis on “Sweaty”. Completely flawed analysis. Ignores GOPe strength: Walker and Ryan both WI. Also, now polls are being tanked. The Stop Trump peeps see this as the last firewall and throw every trick. If Trump “loses” it will have NOTHING to do with voter preference and everything to do with hacks throwing an election

        Thomas Lynch

        March 24, 2016 at 10:18 am

      • Obama *inherited* a recession and after the recovery started in 2010 the economy hasn’t looked back. If we were shedding 200k jobs a month, Obama’s approval would be under 40% right now and any GOP nom, including Trump, would be regarded as a shoe in.

        In late Tsarist Russia (which my great grandfather escaped from to dodge the draft in the war against Japan), the revolutionaries used to say, “The worse, the better”. That is how I feel about pre-revolutionary (i.e. current) America.

        Let’s burn this bitch down!

        Otis the Sweaty

        March 24, 2016 at 10:46 am

      • One prob people are overlooking is that there is going to be a recession in the next presidential term. Do we want a recession happening under Trump or under Hillary?

        As someone pointed out, Trump would be able to blame Obama for any recessions at the start of Trump’s presidency.

        And the next global recession, which is coming, could very well happen before the election.

        Prob is best for us long term if Trump is robbed of the nom, Hillary becomes Pres, and then let a combination of recession, Islamic terrorism and Hillary’s incompetence and loathsomeness to discredit the Democratic party.

        Wrong. A Trump presidency is best because it will provide spectacular blog material.

        The Undiscovered Jew

        March 24, 2016 at 8:38 pm

      • I agree with Otis’s first paragraph and I just had a discussion with my son, a Trump fan and activist, about this. There is an all-out war against Trump and the first millions in negative ads against him have hit home. As a Trump fan, I hope they won’t be enough to rob him of the 1237 delegates, but I’m afraid it will be close.

        Regarding his second paragraph, there are too many variables: maybe there will be no recession (this zero-growth economy will just keep on going); maybe Trump’s “corporate inversion” trick + general optimism will stall a recession; maybe the Republican party disappears and there will be zero chance for anything, recession or not; etc.


        March 24, 2016 at 9:47 pm

  11. Wisconson is going to be a dogfight. Indiana too. There is too much corn in both states & too much Germanic-Scandinavians in both states.

    Maybe the National a Enquirer story will make a difference.


    March 24, 2016 at 8:55 am

  12. There are polls and there are polls.
    Some polls are simply designed to generate headlines making the poll itself news.
    Many polls are agenda driven and deliberately designed to influence and mislead the public
    into not going with a candidate they want, so as not to “throw their vote away”, or to think that some third tier cuck candidate is really coming on strong.

    Is it just a coincidence that that strongly anti-Trump organizations like the Globe and the Wall Street Journal
    both had polls showing Trump weakening right before the NH Primary?

    Here’s one way it’s done:
    Leading Questions – Yes Prime Minister

    Nedd Ludd

    March 24, 2016 at 8:59 am

    • Yep, it’s all psy ops. Moreso than ever with an actual outsider leading the way.

      Andrew E.

      March 24, 2016 at 2:01 pm

  13. Trump doesn’t even need Wisconsin to get to 1237. This media circus around stopping Trump is so disingenuous. Trump has got this thing in the bag:

    755 – delegates so far.
    291 – delegates from winner-take-all states (MD, DE, CA, NJ, plus 14 from PA)
    110 – 75% of 147 delegates in WTA-by-congressional-district states (WI, IN, WV)
    84 – 50% of 168 proportional delegates from Trump states (NY, CT, RI, NM)
    18 – 25% of 72 proportional delegates from non-Trump states (OR, WA)
    0 – from winner-take-all states that Cruz will win (MT, SD, NE)

    Total is 1258. And that doesn’t even count the 413 unbound delegates from states like Colorado, Pennsylvania and North Dakota, and from candidates who have dropped out. Trump is going to get some of those, certainly a big chunk of the 57 unbound delegates from Pennsylvania and some of Carson’s 8 delegates.

    So even if Trump loses Wisconsin and ends up getting maybe 17 delegates instead of about 31, it won’t matter.

    Great Again

    March 24, 2016 at 10:21 am

    • You have this wrong. CA and MD are WTA by CD. With the magic number destined to be decided in CA, it would be good for Trump to minimize the number of CDs he has to win in CA.

      And maybe, if Trump wins big in WI, the anti-Trumpers finally give up.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      March 24, 2016 at 10:54 am

  14. Based on the outrage that I’ve seen from SWPLs after Super Tuesday, I wouldn’t be surprised if people are more wary of admitting that they support Trump now than at any other point. It kind of surprised me. I knew none of them were Trump fans, but I hadn’t expected this reaction. Off the top of my head, I can think of 5 people who I see socially at least a few times a year who posted lengthy Facebook status updates explaining why Trump is the scum of the Earth and how ALL of his supporters are evil, ignorant bigots who are welcome nowhere in polite society. My support for Trump remains strong and it’s not something that I hide, but I’d imagine that a lot of people have been cowed into silence in states like Wisconsin.


    March 24, 2016 at 12:37 pm

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