Lion of the Blogosphere

Jeb Bush endorses Cruz, what does it mean?

I find it hard to believe that Jeb is acting without the tacit collusion of the GOPe.

Therefore, the GOPe had decided that anyone-but-Trump means support Ted Cruz. Once they start endorsing Cruz it will be hard to walk that back at the convention and bring in some moderate white-knight savior (like Susana Martinez).

And everyone knows that Cruz will lose the general election unless Hillary has a stroke between now and November, and even then Cruz still might lose. So they prefer to lose with Cruz than possibly win with Trump. (Unless they believe that Trump can’t possibly win the election because he’s so low class; the exact reasoning they used back in 2015 about Trump winning the nomination. It’s hard to know if they believe this or not; the GOPe does have an established track record of going back to the same logic that has failed them over and over again. Also, there are those in the GOPe who possibly think that McCain and Romney lost because they weren’t conservative enough; if only a REAL conservative could somehow be nominated then they could finally win the general election, because everyone knows that swing voters are more conservative than Republican primary voters who never seem to vote for the most conservative candidate.)

* * *

Does this endorsement actually help Cruz at all? I find it doubtful that there are very many Trump supporters who will suddenly switch over the Cruz because someone they never liked in the first place is endorsing Cruz.

Jeb’s endorsement is aimed at Kasich supporters, telling them to abandon their moderate guy who has no chance of winning another state and vote for Cruz who can stop Trump who is the much greater evil than Cruz. I suppose there are some would-be Kasich voters who would be moved to switch to Cruz based on endorsements from people like Bush and Romney.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

March 23, 2016 at EDT pm

Posted in Politics

26 Responses

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  1. I think the intent of the endorsement is to enhance the chance of a brokered convention where neither Trump nor Cruz have enough votes to win the first ballot. After that, Jeb or some other loser gets the nomination. And yes, the GOP would rather Hillary win than Trump. Trump would be bad for business as usual and that is all the DNC and GOP care about really.


    March 23, 2016 at EDT pm

    • Spot on. The Establishment would be satisfied with Kasich, but they know he has no chance to win. They want to have Cruz prevent Trump from obtaining a majority of delegates in the primary, then they will cancel them both out, and go with Romney, Paul Ryan or someone else of that ilk. This is why Romney told Mormons to vote for Cruz in Utah: he campaigned with Kasich previously, but wants neither him nor Kasich to win.

      I doubt that Jeb, Rubio or Kasich will be nominated. The Establishment thinks they had their shot and failed to beat Trump, so it’s time for someone who hasn’t run in this election cycle to steal their thunder. Boehner explicitly stated that a Republican who doesn’t win a majority of delegates will have lost the race, and someone else is entitled to step in.

      I’ve been more iffy about Trump than most readers here. But I think throwing the convention to someone who hasn’t run would likely lead to the annihilation of the Republican Party. Trump will be furious and will call them unfair cheaters, so he will run as a third party to ruin them. Trump’s working class supporters will never back the GOP for the rest of their lives, unless there’s a Stalinist purge wherein the old fat cats get disgraced and fired, only for Trumpists to take control of the party apparatus.


      March 23, 2016 at EDT pm

    • “Trump would be bad for business as usual and that is all the DNC and GOP care about really.”

      Couldn’t agree more. I’m from Philly which is by all measures a single-party (Dem) Oligarchy with a wealthy ruling class, a vast Nam underclass, and a shrinking by the day Irish/Italian prole middle class in the outlying neighborhoods. We haven’t had a Republican mayor since 1952. There is however a city Republican party which does retain some local bastions of power mainly in the Northeast and Roxborough (both home to a majority white prole population).
      The city Republican party (Meehan family among others) basically stays out of the way of the ruling class in exchange for some Civil Service patronage jobs (Parking Authority, Sheriffs Dept, Police and Fire) and a sometimes seat on City Council, and I assume the implicit understanding that they can retain what little bit of power that they have. It truly is that corrupt of a system and I think it is precisely what the GOPe is hoping to accomplish. Needless to say a lack of competion has been nothing short of disaster for Philly and absolute power corrupts absolutely. Go Trump 2016-John from Roxborough

      Roxborough John

      March 23, 2016 at EDT pm

    • Went to my first local GOP meeting in years, and they were picking delegates to go to the state convention to pick the state’s delegates to Cleveland. I noticed the way to signal Trump support is to say you don’t want a brokered convention. That way you don’t have come out and admit the awful truth.

      People who support Cruz are up front about it, because it is a more respectable (if losing) position.

      Mrs Stitch

      March 23, 2016 at EDT pm

  2. I’ve been saying from the beginning that there was 0 chance of the GOPe stiffing both Trump and Cruz. If they have the votes, they’ll go with Cruz.

    Cruz would lose worse than McCain, but honestly, that might be for the best.

    I voted for McCain and Romney (in the general, not the primaries, I didn’t get to vote in either primary cause the races were done by the time they got to my state) but I am so so so happy that they ended up losing.

    Similarly, Trump getting robbed the nomination could end up being the best thing for the anti immigration movement because it will destroy the GOP.

    Otis the Sweaty

    March 23, 2016 at EDT pm

  3. “Lose with Cruz!” Not a bad slogan.

    Luke Lea (@lukelea)

    March 23, 2016 at EDT pm

  4. there are those in the GOPe who possibly think that McCain and Romney lost because they weren’t conservative enough;

    Nah. That’s the base. The GOPe thinks conservatives are stupid, vulgar, and prole. They think the GOP loses because it is not liberal enough (mainly in that it does not cater to minorities enough).

    Jeb’s endorsement ought to give all TruCon voters great cause for pause. But maybe they’re all so stupid and wound up against Trump that no evidence will convince them to abandon Cruz.


    March 23, 2016 at EDT pm

    • Yeah the GOPe believes that the problem is that all of their candidates are too conservative. Anything to do with social issues, particularly abortion, they hate. That’s why it’s so funny that Trump triggers them so badly. On paper, he’s their perfect candidate; a RINO who could care less about social issues who is bringing in new people to the party.

      I can only assume that someone in the RNC after the 2012 election either got hold of a monkey’s paw or genie bottle, and made a wish that, like all such wishes, is backfiring big time.

      Mike Street Station

      March 23, 2016 at EDT pm

  5. The GOPe just wants to keep their cushy jobs and they’re afraid that Trump will clean out the Augean stables, Hercules style. And let’s hope he does.

    Otherwise, GOPe cucks are just grifters. They haven’t perfected the art of the grift like Barack and Hillary, who have taken it to Pharonic levels, but that’s one more reason the GOP is the stupid party. They can’t even rob as well as the Dems do.

    Heh. Trump should put out a parody book called “The Art of the Grift” and point out how Dems and GOPe are all about sucking money wherever they can find it.


    March 23, 2016 at EDT pm

  6. The only alternative scenario I can think of (alternative to “e has decided to go all-out for Cruz”) is a personal grudge on Bush’s part. He probably wouldn’t take this step against orders from GOPe headquarters, but it’s possible the message from hq is “We still can’t get our act together, so who you choose to endorse is on you. (We suck at being an establishment.)”

    “Jeb’s endorsement is aimed at Kasich supporters” Spot on.

    Greg Pandatshang

    March 23, 2016 at EDT pm

  7. I agree that this is aimed at Kasich voters. I don’t think it matters much. It’s not going to influence what’s going to happen in the eastern states of Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Delaware, Maryland and West Virginia. Trump will run the table over there. If anything, the move to undermine Kasich only makes Trump stronger in the East. It’ll certainly make it easier for Trump to cross the 50% threshold in Connecticut to make it WTA.

    The only states that have any drama left are Wisconsin, Indiana and California. And frankly, Wisconsin and Indiana aren’t that dramatic because they’re not WTA. They’re merely WTA by congressional district. Out of the 99 total delegates there, I figure Trump has a ceiling of about 80 and a floor of about 50. That 30 delegate difference won’t stop Trump from getting to 1237.

    California is the only state that can change things. Right now, Trump is up by about 10 in the polls, and if Arizona is any indication, he is only getting stronger.

    Great Again

    March 23, 2016 at EDT pm

  8. Is #LoseWithCruz a thing yet? In any case, I think many GOP people honestly believe Cruz has a better chance than Trump against Clinton. They point to a number of polls that support this conclusion. My instinct is that Trump has a much better chance, but that’s not what the polls seem to say.

    March 23, 2016 at EDT pm

    • Your instinct is correct. Polls, when taken at the wrong time or if the sample is small or biased, can be unreliable. Who does Clinton attack more? She is afraid of Trump, not Cruz.


      March 23, 2016 at EDT pm

  9. After running the numbers, I’ve concluded that this thing is pretty much over. Trump will get to 1237. It breaks down like this:

    755 – delegates so far.
    291 – delegates in WTA states of MD, DE, CA, NJ (plus 14 from PA)
    110 – 75% of 147 WTA-by-CD delegates from WI, IN, WV
    84 – 50% of proportional delegates from Trump states (NY, CT, RI, NM)
    18 – 25% of proportional delegates from non-Trump states (OR, WA)

    That gets him to 1258. And that doesn’t even count the 54 unbound Pennsylvania delegates, the 37 from Colorado, the 28 from North Dakota and the 15 miscellaneous ones from places like Guam. It also doesn’t count the unbound delegates from Rubio (167) and Carson (8) and other candidates (4). Trump is going to get some of those delegates – certainly a good chunk of the PA ones. He’ll probably finish with over 1300.

    Great Again

    March 23, 2016 at EDT pm

    • 84 – 50% of proportional delegates from Trump states (NY, CT, RI, NM)

      You’re underestimating his delegate count. NY has 99 delegates. Of those Trump will take 90 of them at a minimum, probably all 99.

      The Undiscovered Jew

      March 23, 2016 at EDT pm

  10. Off topic, but previously talked about…

    Turnout is expected to be high in Wisconsin.

    “high turnout will be driven by Republican Donald Trump attracting new voters to the polls”

    guido in da hood

    March 23, 2016 at EDT pm

  11. Jeb Bush probably believes that the Republican party in its current form can survive a Cruz loss to Hillary. The Republican party survived Goldwater. On the other hand Trump is likely to facture the Republican party whether he wins or loses.


    March 23, 2016 at EDT pm

  12. Hellhouse

    March 23, 2016 at EDT pm

  13. Jeb Bush endorses Cruz, what does it mean?

    That the Bush family wants to cling to power.

    Neil Bush has been hired, Heidi and Ted met in the Bush administration.

    Similarly, Trump getting robbed the nomination could end up being the best thing for the anti immigration movement because it will destroy the GOP.

    Otis you are hallucinating due to stress.

    A Hillary victory means at least 2 maybe 4 liberal supreme court justices. It means Amnesty for 15 million Democrats.

    Game over.

    So called conservatives would just be a small group of bitter, delusional, pathetic Glenn Beck followers and libertarian nerds. And pseudo intellectuals, consultants and media hacks. Kinda like now without Trump.


    March 23, 2016 at EDT pm

    • On the plus side, the assistance of Neil and Jeb Bush totally cements Cruz’s image as a conservative, anti-Establishment outsider who will shake up Washington.


      March 24, 2016 at EDT am

  14. It means that Ted Cruz just received the Kiss of Death.


    March 23, 2016 at EDT pm

  15. California is WTA by congressional district. Lion’s estimate (Trump winning ~40 out of the 53 districts) sounds about right to me.


    March 23, 2016 at EDT pm

  16. The more interesting question is what it means re immigration. Either Jeb has changed his mind on the issue so important to him that he wrote a book about it, or he believes Cruz’s immigration hawkishness isn’t real.

    Interestingly, though, a new poll came out showing Cruz beating Hillary head-to-head (but Trump still losing).

    Dave Pinsen

    March 23, 2016 at EDT pm

    • With the left depicting Trump as Hitler’s godchild, every anti-Trump Republican is suddenly seeming a moderate by default. Yesterday I was amazed to read a newspaper article about some new Cruz endorsements describing Scott Walker as a “centrist Republican”.

      Before Trump came along, Walker was Hitler.


      March 24, 2016 at EDT pm

  17. “And everyone knows that Cruz will lose the general election unless Hillary has [another]** stroke between now and November, and even then Cruz still might lose.”

    **For the sake of clarity.


    March 23, 2016 at EDT pm

  18. What does this mean? A lesser rival of your strong rival is your friend.

    Furthermore, don’t forget that Trump trashed Jeb badly, as weak and non-sequitur!


    March 24, 2016 at EDT pm

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