Lion of the Blogosphere


I’ve been telling you for a while that Cruz would win more than 50%, and in fact he did even BETTER than I expected.

The Mitt Romney endorsement really helped him. The Mormons take orders from their leaders. Whether Utah votes for Trump or Hillary in a Trump v. Hillary election depends a lot on what Mitt Romney orders them to do.

Trump winning 47% of the vote in Arizona looks even BETTER in light of the fact that, I estimate, 12% of the Arizona Republican primary voters were Mormons who voted the same way as Mormons in Utah. In a Mormon-free Arizona, Trump would have surpassed 50%.

Wisconsin is the key for Trump. There aren’t many Mormons in Wisconsin or other types who would vote for Cruz. Trump would benefit greatly by winning the state and the majority of the state’s CDs, which I predict he will do. (Although I wish I knew more about Wisconsin. The only thing I know about that state is that Laverne & Shirley and Gary Gygax are from there.)

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

March 23, 2016 at 10:49 am

Posted in Politics

19 Responses

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  1. Nikcrit, this is your cue to check in!

    My ignorant take – Scott Walker’s endorsement will carry some weight. He is a guy who has dealt with leftist protest/chaos and won.

    Even though Kasich is a fellow governor, Walker will end up endorsing Cruz. Kasich botched his attempt to emulate Walker’s success against labor and ended up having to make peace with them.

    The Wikipedia page about this episode has been sanitized to minimize embarrassment to Kasich and cover his tracks. (Anyone with free time should edit this page to make it more forthright about Kasich’s big loss.),_Issue_2


    March 23, 2016 at 11:16 am

    • Feminists, Scientologists, Zionists, etc have all created campaigns to edit wikipedia pages. There’s been a number of times where I was reading a page and it was blatantly obvious that it was propaganda. One group was even taking payments to do it.


      March 23, 2016 at 11:46 am

    • What’s weird is that back in 2011 Kasich was the hardline, principled right wing extremist. When Scott Walker eliminated collective bargaining for public sector employees he was attacked by RedState type guys for giving an exemption to firemen and police officers, which Walker had done for blatantly political reasons. What a spineless panderer! Kasich was a hero for going whole hog. But Kasich’s reforms were completely overturned in that voter referendum because the public felt bad about making cops and firefighters unhappy, while Walker got to keep his against bare-knuckle opposition because he wasn’t dopey enough to create more enemies than he could defeat.

      Kasich waffles hither and thither over his career, but his lack of strategy is his North Star.


      March 23, 2016 at 11:58 am

  2. Minnesotans hate Wisconsin. That’s probably good for Trump, considering how Minnesota votes.


    March 23, 2016 at 11:28 am

    • Wisconsin is more blue-collar prole than Minnesota.

      I’ve commented before that it’s a lot like Ohio, and therefore Kasich has a shot.


      March 23, 2016 at 11:39 am

  3. I have experience with mormons. And my observation is that they will do whatever their leaders tell them. It looks like their leaders told them to stuff the ballot box.


    March 23, 2016 at 11:34 am

  4. By my math, Trump needs to outperform Five Thirty Eight’s best-guess predictions from last week for delegates counts by 8% in the states where he is not already maxed out. Looks like yesterday, Trump got 0 delegates from such states/territories, underperforming their forecast of 6. Not a big deal, it’s only 6. It means that from, here on out, he needs to outperform the forecast by 9.25%. Doing almost 10% better than expected – not impossible, not easy.


    Greg Pandatshang

    March 23, 2016 at 11:36 am

  5. No fucking way is Utah going to vote for Hillary in the general no matter what Mittens says.


    March 23, 2016 at 12:18 pm

  6. Romney implied he held his nose and voted for Cruz as the only alternative to Trump. He didn’t actually endorse or praise Cruz. Still, that appeared sufficient for the rest of the Mormons to fall in line behind Cruz too.

    Mark Caplan

    March 23, 2016 at 12:32 pm

  7. This comment at Sailer is super interesting about Mormons and Trump.


    March 23, 2016 at 12:42 pm

  8. Wisconsin is actually incredibly prole, christian, and conservative outside of Milwaukee and Madison.

    Two in the Bush

    March 23, 2016 at 2:37 pm

    • I was born in Wisconsin and know the state well. I agree with the prole part. As for Christian, it’s not really hardcore. The moderate Lutheran church is big there with due to so many people having German ancestry. Polls that rank states on religiosity rank WI in the middle of the pack. It’s not the Bible belt. OTOH, WI often ranks #1 in binge drinking.

      I most disagree with WI being conservative outside of Madison and Milwaukee. WI is unusual in that many of the states rural counties consistently vote Democrat for President. It is also unusual in that by far the most conservative area of the state are the suburban counties outside of Milwaukee. The trend in most bigger cities has been for suburban areas to be turned off by Republicans on social issues. So most big city suburban areas voted for Obama against their economic self interests. Yet the Milwaukee suburban counties bucked the national trend and totally embraced the TrueCon message.

      On a personal note, my great-grandfather was a very active Milwaukee Socialist (he would be horrified at my political views).Milwaukee routinely had Socialist Mayor’s during that era The neighborhood where he wrote all his Socialist pamphlets and letters to the editor is now all-black and extremely dangerous, very similar to what you would find in Detroit. I guess his Socialist policy ideas (which were basically adopted by Democrats) didn’t work out so well.

      Jay Fink

      March 23, 2016 at 4:03 pm

  9. Trump was polling badly in Utah before Romney gave his speech.

    Trump polls badly in Utah, not because of Romney, but because of Trump. His personality doesn’t appeal to Mormons, regardless of what LDS leaders have stated (and, as far as Romney is concerned, he isn’t considered a leader in the LDS community, just a prominent Mormon AFAIK).

    Half Canadian

    March 23, 2016 at 3:00 pm

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