Lion of the Blogosphere

Things are seriously looking bad for Trump

The latest California poll shows that Cruz is only 1 point behind Trump.

I previously calculated that Trump will need to win a strong majority of the California congressional districts to win the 1,237 delegates needed to avoid a contested convention. Based on the most recent poll, a 50/50 split looks likely.

The unprecedented collusion between the GOPe and the MSM to prevent the clear front-runner from winning the nomination is seriously hurting Trump. Under any normal circumstances, Trump would have increased his share of the vote because people rally around the winner.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

March 28, 2016 at 10:50 pm

Posted in Politics

55 Responses

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  1. What’s really weird is that the NY Times is running all these strangely respectful articles about Trump’s issues. I smell a big fat rat.


    March 28, 2016 at 10:52 pm

  2. Also, this Cuban Mistress Crisis is beginning to rebound on Trump. It’s just looking very dirty.


    March 28, 2016 at 10:54 pm

  3. Well I don’t think we’ve ever had a situation in which the media and a major political party has colluded to take out that party’s own front runner. It’s a totally unprecedented situation. But Trump isn’t helping himself either. He’s not “pivoting” into Mister Serious Statesman. He’s not boning up on the issues nor is avoiding these petty fights. The nonsense of fighting with Cruz only helps Cruz at this point because he’s the one behind. Trump has a lot of enemies at this point, but one of them is himself.

    Mike Street Station

    March 28, 2016 at 10:57 pm

    • Trump has a lot of enemies at this point, but one of them is himself.

      Apparently it’s too much of a one man operation.

      Petty diversionary scandals, vulgarity, lack of intellectual substance.

      At some point the reality TV/pro wrestler act has to be significantly reduced and replaced with serious, Presidential style.

      But I think he’s now going to lose because White Republicans really are a fairly stupid, misguided, delusional group.

      Evolutionarily they are just not able to thrive. Even when they win they are still losers, esp from a national or racial perspective.


      March 29, 2016 at 1:34 am

      • At some point the reality TV/pro wrestler act has to be significantly reduced and replaced with serious, Presidential style.

        His AIPAC speech about Israel was exactly this.


        March 29, 2016 at 3:17 pm

  4. Gingrich was on Hannity tonight talking about how Trump messed up this week, he’s been basically a Trump supporter up to now.

    The Heidi Cruz thing even turned off Ann Coulter, who’s been the most pro-Trump person on the planet.

    It was a complete unprovoked attack against a third party, when the Cruz campaign wasn’t even responsible for the original shot. Made people question whether Trump will be able to control himself during the general election.

    It’s easy to blame the MSM, but this last week’s wounds were self-inflicted.


    March 28, 2016 at 11:00 pm

    • Yeah, Trump has not helped himself much lately. Looking mean and petty instead of above the fray and substantial is a bad combination. He should have turned a page on his campaign a few weeks ago, but he seems to be in a rut. He’s probably making some of these decisions while being too tired, but he needs to have someone filter his tweets.

      Unapologetic White Man

      March 30, 2016 at 1:25 am

  5. Trump is living and dying by the media simultaneously. He receives more media attention than any other candidate, which initially worked in his favor when he was still spouting policy ideas on the regular.

    It appears, however, that he has no second act. He had the wall, he had the Muslim ban, he had some tough talk on ISIS, but for several months now he hasn’t offered much else to keep himself interesting. He’s simply doubled down on his reality TV persona, insulting and rambling. The media responds in kind by shifting their characterization from “dangerous” to just “embarrassing.”

    If Trump had come up with some new policies designed to expand his base I think he’d be doing better. Instead he simply decided to tread water in the 40%-ish range.


    March 28, 2016 at 11:06 pm

    • Yeah, he should come up with a major new policy proposal every week and knock off the “Lyin’ Ted” crap. I don’t think that part of the game is effective any longer.

      I hope the National Enquirer has something solid on Cruz pretty soon.

      Unapologetic White Man

      March 30, 2016 at 1:28 am

  6. I also wonder if a stolen nomination could be a galvanizing event for the alt-right, even though getting a Trump presidency might be important in the short run (to prevent the left from continuing their third-worldification program).


    March 28, 2016 at 11:12 pm

  7. There is also Trump fatigue. Most of my friends and family are against Trump. The few that support him are wavering. People get tired of the endless mini-scandals and constantly defending their positions to others. The constant media hammering is starting to have an effect.

    I think Hillary is will try to position herself as the sensible moderate between the two crazies, Trump and Sanders.


    March 28, 2016 at 11:13 pm

    • I thought for sure he would have changed things up by now, but his routine has become monotonous. It’s not too late, I think, but he’s going to have to pull a rabbit out of hat pretty soon if he is to make the 1237.

      Unapologetic White Man

      March 30, 2016 at 1:29 am

  8. There are people who genuinely believe his campaign slogan is Make America White Again.


    March 28, 2016 at 11:33 pm

    • There are people who genuinely believe his campaign slogan is Make America White Again.

      And that’s the kind of talk that will kill him with White women.


      March 29, 2016 at 1:29 am

      • That kind of talk will hurt him with black Americans too. The fake slogan seems to have taken off in African American communities — or flauxgon, as I like to call it.


        March 29, 2016 at 3:03 pm

  9. The MSM push against Trump has ramped up to unbelievable levels in the past month or so, ever since the Chicago thing. There was already plenty of hysteria over him beforehand but since that it’s morphed into a downright moral panic in many quarters.


    March 28, 2016 at 11:49 pm

  10. The next Pres is going to have to deal with a recession. And there won’t be any quasi recovery like there was under Obama either. Do we want that under Hillary or under Trump?

    GOP voters are too retarded. All they care about is “muh Conservatism”, so fuck them. Let them nominate Cruz and get blown out by 10 points and slaughtered down ballot.

    Hillary, who has none of Obama’s charm, leading 4 years of BLM, trannies in women’s bathrooms, terror attacks, lectures about Islamophobia and economic malaise will severely damage the Dems amongst white voters while further radicalizing the GOP electorate.

    Our goal should be maximum polarization, and I can’t think of somebody who would polarize this country more than Hillary.

    Otis the Sweaty

    March 29, 2016 at 12:11 am

    • Ah, the old win-by-losing strategy. Which never seems to work.

      Reagan had a severe recession in his first term. Won reelection by a landslide.

      Dave Pinsen

      March 29, 2016 at 12:41 am

      • It worked in the Russian Revolution. It worked bringing the Nazis to power. It worked to set the stage for 20 years of Republican dominance at the national level after the backlash to the Civil Rights movement. It worked to make Giuliani the mayor of ultra liberal New York. It worked to completely eviscerate the Democrats bench and give the GOP an essential lock on the House.

        “Worse is better” works, period.

        As for Reagan, he won because he was likable, had survived an assassination attempt, the economy was coming around and he was running against a clueless idiot who explicitly said he would raise money on white people to give more free stuff to blacks.

        Now, Hillary may very well win a second term if the GOP nominates some open borders, socon, cuck, but if they run a remotely competent candidate (Abbott, Sandoval, Deal or even Ivanka Trump) they are in great shape and I think will probably win because Hillary will only get about 33% of the white vote in 2020 and minority turnout will be in the toilet.

        Otis the Sweaty

        March 29, 2016 at 1:10 am

  11. I think the GOPe is going to call Trump’s bluff. They will prop Cruz up just enough to ensure that Trump gets a plurality, and then they’ll dump both of them, along with Kasich, at the convention. They’ll go with Romney or Paul Ryan. Trump will be furious and will run a third party campaign, ensuring that Hillary wins.

    The GOPe is ready to lose the election to Hillary, nevertheless, if it means not losing the party to Trump. They figure that in 2018 and 2020, the Trumpists will be brought back into the fold, and they can win 2020 with Paul Ryan. Their donors will love it: low taxes and high immigration!

    Of course, their long term strategy is insane. Their hope is to win the Hispanic vote, but that will never happen. Democrats are happy to offer Hispanics any kind of special benefit they can think of. Republicans will never be able to one-up Democrats when it comes to state-funded giveaways.

    So what will likely happen, for the foreseeable future, is that there will simply be too few whites around for Republicans to win the presidency. This doesn’t mean that we will end up with socialism, certainly not the Scandinavian sort: whites are voting for Bernie, but Bernie is losing because blacks don’t like him. As someone here mentioned earlier on this blog, Medicaid and Affirmative Action scholarships mean that blacks already have free healthcare and college education. Bernie’s proposals just divert money away from them to poor whites.

    What we will likely be stuck with, probably for a very long time, is the kind of Banana Republic which doles out favors to its constituents in return for their votes. The Republicans will only be able to win legislative elections, ensuring a kind of soft secessionism. The Republicans will ensure that Democratic presidents will not be able to create Obamacare-style legislation. So as such, the reach of the federal government will be limited.


    March 29, 2016 at 12:15 am

    • Ed Luce of the FT raised the “lose now, run Paul Ryan in 2020” idea in a recent post. The only way that makes sense is if the GOP has given up even pretending to try to win POTUS elections.

      Which may indeed be the case. Hillary is a weak, flawed candidate. If the GOP doesn’t think Paul Ryan can beat her this year, then why would he be able to beat her in 2020, when she’d have the advantages of incumbency? Doesn’t make sense.

      Unless they realize that they simply can’t win elections with their current policy mix and are just content to offer symbolic resistance to the Dems while rubber stamping their budgets, like Ryan’s been doing.

      Dave Pinsen

      March 29, 2016 at 12:56 am

      • “Unless they realize that they simply can’t win elections with their current policy mix and are just content to offer symbolic resistance to the Dems while rubber stamping their budgets, like Ryan’s been doing.”

        I think a number of GOP strategists believe that presidential campaigns will always be losing propositions, henceforth. That said, white male voters are much more active in congressional races than NAMs are, so the Republicans will be able to have a very sizable chunk of Congress, maybe even a majority, for the foreseeable future.

        Washington gridlock, hence, will not be an unwanted consequence of a Republican Congress and Democratic presidency, but the desired outcome. Obamacare was Obama’s one great legislative accomplishment, which Republicans hated, and they have since made sure that nothing similar will be passed.


        March 29, 2016 at 1:43 pm

    • This…more or less.

      For those of us saying that demography matters, there is no 2020 election to look forward too. The electoral college advantage, regardless of who is the Republican and who is the Democratic candidate, will be too great. Republicans still have many years left to win on the local level, but the only chance for the Presidency was a Presidential candidate who could poach on Democratic votes and unite the Republicans which doesn’t look like will happen this year.

      Mike Street Station

      March 29, 2016 at 5:52 am

      • “For those of us saying that demography matters, there is no 2020 election to look forward too.”

        Even if Trump wins, he would need to do a lot of work in halting immigration, deporting illegals, encouraging self-deportation among a lot of legal immigrants, etc. if Republicans will win the presidency after his election. His support has remained very narrow throughout this race, and he’s not broadening it out yet.


        March 29, 2016 at 1:49 pm

      • “Even if Trump wins, he would need to do a lot of work in halting immigration, deporting illegals, encouraging self-deportation among a lot of legal immigrants, etc.”

        Well Trump, even given a free hand, isn’t going to reverse anything. It’s already too late for that. I think the goal is to halt the damage and slow it down, so we can still have a few more years of decent lives. Particularly, if like me, you have children, that’s important.

        Mike Street Station

        March 29, 2016 at 4:43 pm

      • “I think the goal is to halt the damage and slow it down, so we can still have a few more years of decent lives. Particularly, if like me, you have children, that’s important.”

        Once white Americans realize they’re disenfranchised and that their government actively seeks to scapegoat them for other people’s problems, I wonder what kinds of subnational bonds of loyalty will emerge? In the past, it made sense for white Americans to be proud patriots, both enjoying America’s preeminent status while trying to build up the country.

        In contrast, I doubt that Arabs, Greeks or Armenians ever felt loyal to the Ottoman Empire, or proud to be part of it. They felt loyal to their families, and perhaps their lords, coethnics or regional identity.

        If Trump loses, I think a yuuuge number of white proles will conclude that their government and establishment opposes them. I suppose they’ll become more attached to their churches and sports teams, and their regional identity will become entrenched. Republican Congressmen and Governors will not be able to promise they’ll change Washington, but that they can keep Washington out of their states and neighborhoods.


        March 29, 2016 at 8:31 pm

  12. The California Republican primary is a closed primary, so Trump cannot count on independents or Democrats to vote for him in California. The LA times poll shows Trump leading Cruz 37% to 30% among all GOP voters, but the lead shrinks to 36% to 35% among those most likely to vote. I’m not sure how this survey determined that voters are likely to vote.

    The turn out in the California primary is usually very small, because it is so late. Usually all the presidential races are already decided. This year it looks like California will matter in both the Republican and Democrat primaries. That means turnout may be higher than normal.

    California is a huge state and hard place to campaign. Most people think you have to buy ads in the expensive LA and SF markets to be competitive. I expect Trump will hold rallies and exploit the free media mostly,rather than buy ads.


    March 29, 2016 at 12:27 am

  13. It is by no means over for Trump. But he will have to scratch and claw for every victory and every delegate. The globalists are all in alignment against Trump. This is what it looks like when someone credibly threaten REAL CHANGE to the system. Media is 24/7 against you. Your main contender’s sex scandal becomes your scandal. Communist agitators become freedom fighters against fascist authoritarians.

    Trump is making a play for the big prize and the Eye of Sauron just realized the threat is already within Mordor, not without. All reserves have been called up.

    Andrew E.

    March 29, 2016 at 12:44 am

  14. Maybe it’s time for Trump to buy some negative ads against Cruze in CA. Here’s an idea for one:

    Voiceover: “Why is Ted Cruz? He’s a Washington insider, a former Bush administration official, married to an executive of Goldman Sachs, the global bank known as ‘a vampire squid wrapped around the face of humanity, relentlessly jamming its blood funnel into anything that smells like money’

    [An image of that Matt Taibbi quote appears on the screen]

    Then the video in the gif below of Cruz eating his own booger plays.

    Voiceover: “Is this who you want to be your next president?”

    Dave Pinsen

    March 29, 2016 at 12:50 am

  15. Btw, I liked Trump’s twitter response to the Melania pic which Cruz definitely knew about. You go after Trump’s wife and he goes nuclear on you. Cruz won’t go there again. Heidi is already running and hiding from the campaign trail. If it costs him some votes, so be it. For Trump, nobody gets away with that. Ann Coulter is wrong on this one.

    Andrew E.

    March 29, 2016 at 12:53 am

    • Morning consult nationwide poll has Trump at 49%. I think that CA poll is off some.

      Sean c

      March 29, 2016 at 8:02 am

  16. don’t panic–that cali poll had a very small sample size….and there are plenty of uncommitted delegates –if trump comes within 100 of the 1237, he can easily buy off 100 delegates and walk away with the nom on the first ballot…


    March 29, 2016 at 12:58 am

  17. Trump insider launchers dire emergency warning

    The Bush, Cruz, Rubio, Romney, Ryan, McConnell faction has united and is moving into high gear to steal the nomination from Trump. The immediate plan is an all out bid to deprive Donald Trump of victory – and the delegates – in Wisconsin.


    March 29, 2016 at 1:28 am

  18. Proof if ever were needed that MSM is scum.


    March 29, 2016 at 3:51 am

  19. The media loves Trump’s ratings and can’t take their eyes away from him. Voters just love him and his rallies (which the others know, that’s why they now desperately run out their goons to stop him with violence). Trump should draw the spotlight away from Cruz again, then the Cuban will shrivel up and blow away like the others before him.

    Strategically, I get the impression that the others are getting a handle on how to characterize him, so Trump’s team should think up a few surprises and refreshes, now and in the general. They are good at that. Also, most productive of all, they should take the opportunity to further sharpen the thinking on how to help and talk to and connect to voters. Let the others be distracted by petty scandals and jockey for any sort of media time. Trump’s campaign can leave the rest far off in the dust.


    March 29, 2016 at 3:59 am

  20. The problem is we are talking about Donald Trump. He has been a breath of fresh air in the primaries and is saying a lot of important things that no-one else has the guts to say. But at the end of the day you remember this is Donald Trump we’re talking about – a man who has been a national laughingstock for the upper classes for the past 30 years. Most educated people saw him as a mediocre tacky businessman with a bad combover whose greatest success was a reality TV show. If Trump showed a little more self-awareness and self-deprecation I think he could win more waverers over. For all Scott Adams’ talk about what a great persuader Trump is supposed to be, Trump is not persuasive when he appears clueless and out of touch. The longer he is in the spotlight the more these deficiencies show up.

    Peter Akuleyev

    March 29, 2016 at 5:10 am

  21. “The unprecedented collusion between the GOPe and the MSM to prevent the clear front-runner from winning the nomination is seriously hurting Trump.”

    I don’t think they are colluding, their interests happen to coincide right now: Republicans want an actual Republican for their nominee, that is why they oppose Trump. The MSM assumes Trump will win the nomination and so are attacking him as a way of helping Hillary in the general election.


    March 29, 2016 at 8:24 am

  22. Cruz is clearly the smartest person is the race and is taking steps to actually win. “Stealing Delegates”??? stop your whining.

    Lion of the Turambar

    March 29, 2016 at 8:50 am

  23. Don’t loose heart yet – ‘The course of true love is never smooth.’

    There’s plenty more gas in the tank for Trump to go after both Ted and Heidi
    Also, Trump is going after the free ride, our mostly worthless “allies”, have had when it comes to their national defense – Yet another terrible deal for American taxpayers, but a great deal for the tax-taking military contractors, lobbyists, and ex-generals.

    Trump says allies must start paying for ‘American protection

    Cruz with Glenn Beck at the border – Soccer balls & teddy bears for the invaders – Ugh!!
    Ted Cruz Visits Texas Border To Welcome Illegal Alien Families…

    Goldmanite Globalist Heidi
    “Heidi Cruz was a member of the CFR-sponsored Independent Task Force on the Future of North America, which was launched in October 2004. The Task Force advocates a greater economic and social integration between Canada, Mexico, and the United States as a North American region.

    Comprised of a group of prominent business, political and academic leaders from the U.S., Canada and Mexico, the Task Force was organized and sponsored by the Council on Foreign Relations (U.S.), the Canadian Council of Chief Executives, and the Mexican Council on Foreign Relations. It was co-chaired by former Canadian Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance, John Manley, former Finance Minister of Mexico, Pedro Aspe, and former Governor of Massachusetts and Assistant U.S. Attorney General William F. Weld.”

    Wikipedia lists Heidi Nelson Cruz as an “investment banker” and a “historical member” of the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR).

    Nedd Ludd

    March 29, 2016 at 9:20 am

  24. “The unprecedented collusion between the GOPe and the MSM”

    You can add the TruCons to that list. They’re absolutely colluding with the GOPe and MSM against Trump. Of course, they have a different agenda but they’re colluding against Trump nonetheless. But we should make a distinction between the SoCon/evangelical/constitutionalists and their “leaders”. People need to realize that every demographic movement always has some power broker who owns it and pays shepherds to steer it in the direction they want for their own selfish political and financial reasons. The donors have long since bought out the tea party groups. They donate money and that gives them influence over selecting board members. The fact those groups take the money is proof. Wealthy donors wouldn’t fund them if they weren’t getting their way. Even a lot of the fringe conservative/rightwing news outlets have been bought out. The golden rule — he who has the gold makes the rules. Those who follow are just useful idiots. It’s very frustrating.

    There’s only one person who’s going to break this sick cycle. And it sure as hell isn’t Kasich, Romney, Ryan or Cruz.


    March 29, 2016 at 10:45 am

    • @destructure – all true.

      There’s an article in the NY Times about the donor class that should make your blood boil.

      I could hardly bear to read it, esp. the parts about Paul Singer. He’s our NY State mini-Soros.

      Although I am frankly not paying much attention to social issues now, because immigration and trade are absorbing most of my attention, the cultural revolution continues apace, and all the fake trucon governors are cracking like eggs under the Big Business whip. Rod Dreher is covering this angle exhaustively from the perspective of a disgusted religious conservative.


      March 29, 2016 at 5:12 pm

  25. Don’t overlook the possibility that the LA Times poll was cooked a bit.


    March 29, 2016 at 11:15 am

  26. “The latest California poll shows that Cruz is only 1 point behind Trump.”

    Another poll by a different company had Trump up by 11 on Thursday. Without a reason to discount one or the other, it’s hard to say which is more accurate. I usually try to look at several different polls and throw out any outliers. Then I average the remainder. With only two recent polls there are no outliers. Averaging those two gives Trump a 6 point lead. I wish it was a 26 point lead. But 6 points ahead is still a lot better than 6 points behind.


    March 29, 2016 at 11:17 am

  27. Really damning essay from his ex-communications director:


    March 29, 2016 at 11:34 am

    • Not his ex-communications director, just a hired gun for a super PAC that was disbanded back in October. She probably got tired of being ostracized by her SWPL friends.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      March 29, 2016 at 12:10 pm

      • It’s pretty damning because it focuses on motivations and administrative ability rather than his supposed racism and sexism.

        Lloyd Llewellyn

        March 29, 2016 at 5:36 pm

      • If trump can’t handle his own super PACs how is he going to take on ISIS?


        March 29, 2016 at 8:03 pm

      • The problem is that this woman was hired by someone OTHER than Donald Trump himself. Trump did tell his super PAC to disband, if you remember.

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        March 29, 2016 at 8:15 pm

  28. Yes. Over the past week or two I have for the first time given up hope that Trump can win. The attacks from both the left and GOPe are just too much. The average voter is unable to resist that much negative programming. They are told that Trump is the bad guy and they will internalize it all and believe every word.

    Jay Fink

    March 29, 2016 at 3:14 pm

    • One person who has been supporting (without actual endorsement) Trump via twitter is Nassim Nicholas Taleb – quoting Trump’s book ‘Art of the Deal’, pointing out Trump understands risk & tweeting that Trump’s resistance to attacks show ‘anti-fragility’.


      March 29, 2016 at 7:21 pm

  29. If the media is so against Trump, then how can any of these polls be believed?


    March 29, 2016 at 4:27 pm

  30. As the lady put it, “this is no time to go wobbly”.


    March 30, 2016 at 3:58 am

  31. Cruz is going to win Wisconsin big!

    Lot’s of funny anti-Cruz and anti-GOPe videos here:


    March 30, 2016 at 3:18 pm

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