Lion of the Blogosphere

New Marquette Wisconsin poll is REALLY bad news for Trump

Link to poll results (PDF).

Cruz: 39.6
Trump: 30.5
Kasich: 21.4
Other answer: 8.5

If Trump wins only 3 CDs he picks up 9 delegates from Wisconsin. My previous analysis was that Trump would win 36 delegates, so this leaves him 27 delegates short.


The CNN Election Center currently gives Trump 739 delegates. That’s 19 more delegates than I used in my previous calculations because apparently Missouri delegates weren’t properly counted.

I previously predicted that Trump would win with 13 delegates to spare. So we are at +19 for previously uncounted delegates, and at -27 for the downgrade of Trump’s chances in Wisconsin, so that only leaves Trump with 5 delegates to spare.

However, the previous prediction assumed Trump would win 40 of California’s 53 CDs, and that looks in doubt given the latest California poll showing Cruz only one point behind Trump.

Based upon the latest polls from Wisconsin and California, I predict that Trump will NOT win a majority of the delegates before the convention.

Whether Trump becomes the nominee is going to depend on how many delegates short he comes in and how many votes he will get from unpledged delegates. I think he could pick up an extra 20 votes.

I am pretty sure now that Cruz will win a contested convention that goes beyond the first ballot. Although I would really like to see Susana Martinez get nominated so that I can make a killing on my PredictIt investment, I don’t think the GOPe is going to be able to stop Cruz.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

March 30, 2016 at 3:51 PM

Posted in Politics

37 Responses

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  1. Trump is blowing it. His attitude and comments on women are turning off even Republican women now. Instead of acting more presidential, he is acting more childish.

    That said, this poll has a relatively small sample size. The Optimus polll a few days earlier with more than 10x the sample size of this poll had Trump up by 2%.

    Mike CA

    March 30, 2016 at 4:10 PM

    • Tiny tiny tiny sample size. This poll is basically garbage.


      March 30, 2016 at 4:44 PM

  2. Jesus, man. You’re emotional whirlwinds are worse than a woman’s. Sack up.


    March 30, 2016 at 4:29 PM

    • Yep.

      Andrew E.

      March 30, 2016 at 5:07 PM

  3. Heartiste retweeted your tweet, Lion, and said that Trump needs to move to the “comfort” stage of seduction. For those readers who are unaware of this terminology, it basically means that you’ve hooked your intended audience with something different/interesting, and now you have to reassure them that you’re not misogynistic/crazy/dangerous. He called Cruz’s wife ugly, which Ann Coulter said was stupid (never attack a woman about her looks, especially in public).

    He needs to come from a place of love and respect, not repeatedly insulting people. I hope he gets it really quick, or there goes his shot at becoming president.

    The idea of Cruz becoming president is laughable. No way would people actually vote for him. HRC would have the biggest landslide victory since Reagan in ’84.


    March 30, 2016 at 4:29 PM

    • “The idea of Cruz becoming president is laughable. No way would people actually vote for him.”

      It’s an intentional #LoseWithCruz movement to stop Trump.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      March 30, 2016 at 4:31 PM

  4. I find it ironic, given the delegate lead Trump has, that Sanders looks like he has a better chance at winning the nomination with an insane comeback via last week’s sweep and finding a way to make a break at NY than Trump right now.

    I was hoping one of the two would get to troll the propaganda MSM and establishment. I am not looking forward to the quiet smirk from the establishment and MSM as they get back to being like every other election.


    March 30, 2016 at 4:32 PM

  5. Since the GOPe hates Cruz almost as much as they hate Trump, I don’t see why Lion thinks Cruz would get the nomination in a brokered convention where the nominee could be anyone, including Mitt Romney or Paul Ryan.

    Mark Caplan

    March 30, 2016 at 4:36 PM

    • Romney and Bush both endorsed Cruz. Cruz is stacking the delegations with his people. The GOPe has proven itself at being inept.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      March 30, 2016 at 4:46 PM

      • What will happen: the GOP will change the rules for the convention to get rid of Trump, including appointing disloyal people as “Trump delegates.” Then when Trump is lawyered out of a win, they’ll shiv Cuz in favor of whichever Rubio clone is stupid enough to take the job of losing to Hillary.


        March 30, 2016 at 5:04 PM

    • “Since the GOPe hates Cruz almost as much as they hate Trump”

      This is like reading someone write “since Bush is obviously a shoo-in for the nomination” a few months back. Caplan must have had some special vaccines as a child.


      March 30, 2016 at 5:11 PM

  6. It’s sad and unfortunate that our Presidential politics ultimately depends on the feelz of wimmins, but lo and behold, it does. Trump’s statement on abortion — just came out in the news — is strategically terrible. I know he said there should be punishment “IF” abortion is outlawed, but seems to me (without hearing the tape) that he was hoodwinked by a loaded question. All anyone will hear is “people should be punished for abortion,” end of story. Which is NOT what he said, but no matter. It’s what will be repeated and has probably already been tweeted ten million times by outraged hags.

    Face it, too many Americans are idiots and easily manipulated by the degenerate press.


    March 30, 2016 at 4:38 PM

    • Women consistently poll as more pro life than men. It’s high profile career women that are rabidly pro choice.

      As much as I would like to say that women ruined the Republican primary the same way that Blacks ruined the democratic one, Trump shouldn’t win if he can’t act more presidential.

      Lloyd Llewellyn

      March 30, 2016 at 5:22 PM

      • He just said women should be punished for having abortions, then recanted. Pro-Life women do not believe in punishing women for having abortions.

        I think people here should get used to the fact that this guy will not be the Republican nominee. His bubble has burst.


        March 30, 2016 at 8:16 PM

      • Trump’s position is definitely the rational one, which is more evidence that he has good policy instincts even if it’s clear he’s done very little to actually think about or study any issues. But apparently the pro life movement simultaneously thinks that abortion is a form of murder and that women who procure abortions should not be punished in any way. No wonder they haven’t gotten anywhere.

        Lloyd Llewellyn

        March 31, 2016 at 8:49 AM

    • Strange world where common sense is a gaffe. If abortion is so wrong that it should be banned, of course women who do it should be punished. The argument for a ban is that abortion kills a baby. If we ban abortion we are formally asserting that this is so. How can we then not punish those who persist in doing it?


      March 31, 2016 at 2:33 AM

      • Because it’s dumb politics. Do you think that after every civil war the winning party should order mass executions of the losers on the charge of treason? That may be logical, even justifiable, but it’s gambling with the future by creating the grounds for a guerrilla war that could result in significant economic and social destruction and at worst your defeat if you anger enough people. Most civil wars end with general pardons for that reason.

        The standard pro-life position is illogical because it’s a political compromise designed to acquire the support of 50% plus one of the voting public. A more logical position doesn’t matter because it would never gain popular support.


        March 31, 2016 at 10:10 AM

      • We wouldn’t punish those who had already had abortions. We would punish those who do so after the law is set.


        March 31, 2016 at 7:31 PM

    • I predicted that Trump wouldn’t be able to get out of March. I still have one more day! I just can’t see him making it to the convention. Everyone from both establishment Left and Right is going to put all of their efforts into destroying him. It’s sad but I just can’t see how he can beat them back.


      March 31, 2016 at 8:33 AM

    • @peterike,

      I’ve run out of patience for the attitudes towards women in this place. You are a fucking sad little jerkoff.

      Men want abortion legalized abortion as much as women do. There is no gender split on this, except as noted, women are slightly more pro-life. Men want abortion, divorce, birth control, the lot. They want to be able to walk away from the consequences of their actions. I wish this blog had an ignore feature.

      Really, Heartiste-ism is just a cancer. Let’s go back to before women had the vote. No unions, syphilis, prostitution, a short and brutal life for the working man.

      Actually, it would suit most of you guys just fine. I wish dying in an industrial accident, at the age of 40, with a wife and 8 squalling brats would happen to you guys.


      March 31, 2016 at 9:26 AM

  7. All of the momentum seems to be going Cruz’s way. I really loathe Cruz. I don’t think I can vote for him. I’ll probably vote for Gary Johnson if Battleship Trump isn’t on the ballot in the GE.

    Sagi Is My Guru

    March 30, 2016 at 4:58 PM

  8. He’ll be fine.

    The MSM attacked him really hard when he couldn’t respond because his daughter was giving birth. He’s back on the trail. He’s refocused, & more presidential on the stump (example: when the protestors interrupted his speech he just let them leave instead of rubbing it in).

    The interaction with Miss Wisconsin 2005, terminally ill and explaining how trump’s companies helped her out, brought a tear to my eye. The media ignored it, but its powerful so it can go viral.

    This is like the Batte of the Bulge for Trump, a last gasp full assault from a losing dying enemy.

    Anyways, the “he’s not a conservative types” will come on board vs Hillary (or they were never going to vote for anybody), and the “he’s too far right” people deserve to be kicked from the party, because all they ever do is surrender to democrats. (There aren’t many of them even though they can raise some of the democrat leaning riches).

    The math shows that Trump already has won.

    The only thing up or grabs is the date when the Republicans can start on Hillary.


    March 30, 2016 at 5:00 PM

    • The interaction with Miss Wisconsin 2005, terminally ill and explaining how trump’s companies helped her out, brought a tear to my eye. The media ignored it, but its powerful so it can go viral.

      Nobody cares. This is what gives Trump his delusional self confidence. He finds women who like him and thinks “Women love me”. Then he attacks women who don’t and wonders what the problem is.

      Trump’s obsession with knocking women is what is going viral, like it or not.

      Going after Cruz’ wife was a YUGE flaw. Not only women but Good Boy, beta male provider husband Republican males are turned off by it.

      I support Trump and even I’m bothered by his alcoholic like addicting to attacking women. Enough already, stop with the bitchy tweets. It’s embarrassing.

      Trump has been told that Hillary is going to run the War on Women strategy and Trump just doesn’t care. His arrogance and self deceptions will cause his defeat.


      March 30, 2016 at 6:17 PM

      • The wife stuff was started by Cruz superpac.


        March 30, 2016 at 9:33 PM

      • “The wife stuff was started by Cruz superpac.”

        Yeah but it did it’s job; it suckered Trump in.

        Mike Street Station

        March 31, 2016 at 8:24 AM

      • Suckered him into what? It’s what the news wants to talk about.


        March 31, 2016 at 10:57 AM

  9. We need a hashtag #TrumpPleasePleasePleaseBeMorePresidential. It’s a little long though.


    March 30, 2016 at 5:10 PM

  10. New Marquette Wisconsin poll is REALLY bad news for Trump

    You’re jumping the gun when the scandals over Cruz’s affairs have just begun to play out.

    The Undiscovered Jew

    March 30, 2016 at 5:35 PM

    • The MSM doesn’t want Cruz’s affairs to play out until after he wins the nomination. The MSM wants a contested convention so bad, not only to stop Trump and to lose with Cruz, but because of the amazing news ratings a contested convention would get them.

      The MSM is on Cruz’s side until the convention.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      March 30, 2016 at 5:39 PM

      • Just like with Johnny Mac.

        Sgt. Joe Friday

        March 30, 2016 at 6:13 PM

      • The MSM doesn’t want Cruz’s affairs to play out until after he wins the nomination.

        And the establishment doesn’t want it played out until just before the convention. But Trump knows how to keep a media feeding frenzy when he wants.

        The Undiscovered Jew

        March 30, 2016 at 8:13 PM

  11. Meh…did a Bing search on Donald J. Trump. Polls have Kasich as the predicted winner in Wisconsin.


    March 30, 2016 at 7:12 PM

  12. Don’t get yer panties in a twist…if trump has at least 1050 delegates, he offers Rubio the Vp spot, and he wins on first ballot


    March 30, 2016 at 7:36 PM

  13. Trump’s national polls have been trending up in the last week or so. Trump is doing bad in Wisconsin because Wisconsin is full of German/Swedish cucks and TruCons. After Wisconsin, the map is much better for us, it is the last cuck state.

    The real problem Trump is having is that Cruz’s coalition of Stupid Christians and TruCons is very hard to beat. It doesn’t matter how Presidential Trump acts, there is no way for him to put away Cruz while Cruz has establishment backing.

    Otis the Sweaty

    March 30, 2016 at 8:54 PM

  14. I thought Wisconsin is a white and working class state which means it should go to Trump. Is the state cucked?


    March 30, 2016 at 10:52 PM

  15. If Trump blows WI this bad, then to clinch the nomination, he needs to beat FiveThirtyEight’s delegate forecasts from there on out by 15%. This factors in the many states where he will be maxed out. In practice, this means he would have to knock it out the park in CA and even more than expected in NY.

    Greg Pandatshang

    March 31, 2016 at 12:00 PM

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