New Marquette Wisconsin poll is REALLY bad news for Trump
Other answer: 8.5
If Trump wins only 3 CDs he picks up 9 delegates from Wisconsin. My previous analysis was that Trump would win 36 delegates, so this leaves him 27 delegates short.
AND IT GETS WORSE
The CNN Election Center currently gives Trump 739 delegates. That’s 19 more delegates than I used in my previous calculations because apparently Missouri delegates weren’t properly counted.
I previously predicted that Trump would win with 13 delegates to spare. So we are at +19 for previously uncounted delegates, and at -27 for the downgrade of Trump’s chances in Wisconsin, so that only leaves Trump with 5 delegates to spare.
However, the previous prediction assumed Trump would win 40 of California’s 53 CDs, and that looks in doubt given the latest California poll showing Cruz only one point behind Trump.
Based upon the latest polls from Wisconsin and California, I predict that Trump will NOT win a majority of the delegates before the convention.
Whether Trump becomes the nominee is going to depend on how many delegates short he comes in and how many votes he will get from unpledged delegates. I think he could pick up an extra 20 votes.
I am pretty sure now that Cruz will win a contested convention that goes beyond the first ballot. Although I would really like to see Susana Martinez get nominated so that I can make a killing on my PredictIt investment, I don’t think the GOPe is going to be able to stop Cruz.