Lion of the Blogosphere

New Quinnipiac New York poll good for Trump

Link to Quinnipiac New York poll.

Trump at 56%.

New York delegate rules highly favor a candidate who wins more than 50% of the vote, and my delegate predictions have assumed that Trump will get more than 50% in New York.

Also, Trump’s big win in New York will make him the first Republican candidate this season to win the majority of the vote in a state primary. (That excludes caucuses and territories.)

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

March 31, 2016 at 11:59 am

Posted in Politics

5 Responses

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  1. New York Republicans nominated Carl Paladino for governor in 2010, so Trump should be a shoe-in.

    mikeca

    March 31, 2016 at 12:44 pm

  2. Proles in NYC voting for Trump might suffer the same fate, after voting for Bloomy as hizzoner of NYC.

    All businessmen are all about the bottom line, not creating jobs.

    JS

    March 31, 2016 at 4:44 pm

  3. Is Donald Trump confusing everyone on purpose?

    http://www.cbsnews.com/news/is-trump-confusing-everyone-on-purpose/

    Rifleman

    April 2, 2016 at 3:13 am

  4. Betfair now has Trump at 55% of winning nomination, 28% Cruz. What’s strange is that the implied odds of a contested convention are now 77%. That implies at least a 22% chance that Trump wins a contested convention. No f’ing way. Not sure what the BetFair definition of contested is, but if Trump doesn’t win on the first ballot, he’s toast.

    I wish I had gone to the trouble of figuring out how to place a BetFair bet back when Cruz was at 2% like Charles Johnson did “I placed a bet on Cruz in London at 35 to 1 odds to win the nomination. I put down $5400.”

    Mercy Vetsel

    April 2, 2016 at 9:34 pm

    • “That implies at least a 22% chance that Trump wins a contested convention. No f’ing way. Not sure what the BetFair definition of contested is, but if Trump doesn’t win on the first ballot, he’s toast.”

      If a contested convention just means that Trump has fewer than 1237 pledged delegates. I think there’s a 22% chance he would win. If he’s only a few delegates short, he should be able to pick up some votes, unless the rules committee comes up with some novel way to screw him.

      But I there’s pretty much zero chance that Trump wins if there’s more than one ballot.


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