Lion of the Blogosphere

Not enough blacks in Wisconsin for Trump to win

There have been six recent Wisconsin polls, and every one of the six polls shows Cruz beating Trump. Furthermore, Cruz has shown that he gains support in actual voting when polls are close. (On the other hand, Trump far outperformed the polls in Arizona, but that’s a state where Cruz was never close in polling).

The problem in Wisconsin is that there just aren’t enough blacks in Wisconsin. Trump won in Illinois and Michigan which are both 14% black, and he essentially tied with Cruz in Missouri which is 11% black, so 11% is probably the threshold figure for Trump. Wisconsin is only 6% black.

I thought that Wisconsin was a Rust Belt state and that Trump is strong in the Rust Belt, but Trump isn’t strong enough to counter the absence of black people.

This is bad news because Indiana is another state in doubt. Indiana is only 9% black which is below the 11% threshold, and Indiana lacks other characteristics which would make it pro-Trump. If Trump loses both Wisconsin and Indiana, he will not have enough delegates to reach 1237.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

April 4, 2016 at 12:09 PM

Posted in Politics

23 Responses

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  1. West VA might be trump’s best state, yet it is only 3% black…another factor in play here is the degree to which residents of a state are able to make a living from the land–farming/ranching….the more that a state allows you to make a living off the land, the less well Trump does.


    April 4, 2016 at 12:22 PM

    • Unfortunately for Trump, Indiana is more like Wisconsin and Missouri than West Virginia or Massachusetts.

      • I disagree–WI, MN, IA, et al are Iowa Nice, Minnesota Nice, etc, they are scandanavian/german etc….indiana however has a high component of scots irish, which Trump’s base…trump will win IN.

        This will come down to CA/OR/WA. Cruz will not do well in those states….Trump has to offer Kasich and Rubio the VP spot…if kasich drops off and endorses trump, it is all over


        April 4, 2016 at 3:45 PM

      • But Indiana is more like Kentucky and Ohio than it is Wisconsin or Missouri. You’ve probably seen this before, but nice analysis in Unz that looks at some of the demographic factors other than race that seem to be driving voting behavior:


        April 4, 2016 at 4:10 PM

  2. If Trump blows both WI and IN, he could still be in the running if he can get abt 82 delegates from NY and 124 in CA. Not sure what kind of voting performance he would need to get to those levels – both are a lot more than forecasted.

    Greg Pandatshang

    April 4, 2016 at 12:27 PM

  3. I find the relentlessly self-destructive stupidity of Midwestern whites to be really depressing.


    April 4, 2016 at 12:36 PM

    • I’m a midwestern white. Everybody I know except one person (other than me) hates Trump. My gf was not pleased with my ‘make america great again’ t-shirt. Not like that’s going to stop me from wearing it.


      April 4, 2016 at 5:14 PM

      • How do they feel about Cruz?

        MidWesterners are scum, but no matter. Things are going to have to get worse before they can get better.

        I want the GOP to steal the nomination from Trump at the convention. Blood will flow. Literally.

        Otis the Sweaty

        April 4, 2016 at 10:10 PM

  4. Trump really needed to do better in Texas. All these problems stem from losing there.

    Milwaukee has a notoriously dysfunctional underclass, but the counties around Milwaukee are actually the worst for Trump. It’s just a terrible state for him.

    Good reason to be worried about Indiana. I don’t know much about the place, but it seems to be part of that German-stock, farming midwest culture, more or less Wisconsin.


    April 4, 2016 at 12:47 PM

  5. This morning Geraldo predicted Trump would win Wisconsin.


    April 4, 2016 at 1:00 PM

  6. So what you’re telling me is that….the same people in Europe who are in favor of suicidal immigration…are in favor of it here?

    Let’s hope they get it good and hard, let every one of them have their neighborhood destroyed by Somalis, let every one of them lose their job to a mexican or a chinese person making a quarter of their wage.

    As with HBD, we know that people aren’t very good at learning. We simply need a new people.

    At least with Democrats you get to win. In the near future it is clear that it will be very advantageous to be a Democrat, and not be one of these loser cuckservatives whose only job is to get yelled at while they are destroyed. And who can blame the left for being so aggressive? These midwestern types are incredibly weak, and seem only to be able to discuss the terms of their surrender.

    After Trump loses this election, I’m going to become a leftist and enjoy being on the winning team. The demographics were never there for a Trump victory in the first place, and if Americans wanted to keep America they wouldn’t have voted for pro-immigration politicians in the first place. Sucks to be them. I’ve got enough social capital to be one of the cosmopolitan elite, so I will be. I was 100% in favor of Trump winning, and I didn’t have anything to gain by it. It’s hard to continue to show noblesse oblige toward proles who are ungrateful and are too nervous about being called racist by people who hate them.


    April 4, 2016 at 1:36 PM

    • “After Trump loses this election, I’m going to become a leftist and enjoy being on the winning team”

      Heh. I’ve thought about, when the entire country resembles the demographics of California, wouldn’t it at least make sense to become a Democrat and at least be a part of the system? At that point it’s all over anyway, so does it make sense to try to line up and get your piece of the pie before the whole thing collapses?

      Mike Street Station

      April 4, 2016 at 2:30 PM

      • That thought has occurred to me to, and I have a sneaking suspicion that the process has already begun.


        April 4, 2016 at 8:19 PM

  7. The Blacks only help Trump in the sense that their presence makes Whites act more ethnocentric.

    Steven J.

    April 4, 2016 at 1:52 PM

  8. Indiana is in the Midwest, but politically it’s a Deep South state.
    As for Wisconsin, the Milwaukee suburbs are very conservative, yet for some reason the small towns and rural areas are surprisingly liberal.



    April 4, 2016 at 1:58 PM

  9. Wisconsin is an open primary and thus difficult to poll accurately. By the way, the latest ARG poll gives 42% to Trump and 32 to Cruz:


    April 4, 2016 at 5:41 PM

  10. Um, and the number of blacks who vote in Republican primaries is . . . ?

    So then what difference does it make what percentage black the state is?


    April 4, 2016 at 8:17 PM

    • More blacks = more racist whites = more Trump voters

      Otis the Sweaty

      April 4, 2016 at 11:29 PM

    • White people who live in diverse neighborhoods have less social capital. They are more alienated from other people, less invested in the community, and distrustful. This is true not just around minorities but they are less trustful of other white people too.

      Trump’s whole campaign, including his “make America Great Again” slogan doesn’t make sense if you are talking about a high trust community.

      There are probably less than 12, mostly small states, that haven’t been hit fully by the Mexican invasion yet and have no frame of reference for what’s coming.


      April 5, 2016 at 12:13 AM

  11. He’s got a big problem in Indiana. Indiana is cuck central and the neocons control talk radio there. Rush even has trouble staying on the air.


    April 5, 2016 at 12:04 AM

  12. i havent heard that about indiana at all. all the people ive known from indiana told me its full of white trash / guys with swaztika tattoos etc. sounds like trump country.

    james n.s.w

    April 5, 2016 at 1:02 AM

  13. Given Milwaukee’s demographics, it is strange that MIlwaukee County Republicans are supporting Cruz. People in the Upper Midwest are an enigma. At least Trump is doing much better in Wisconsin than he did in Minnesota.


    April 5, 2016 at 10:19 PM

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