Not enough blacks in Wisconsin for Trump to win
There have been six recent Wisconsin polls, and every one of the six polls shows Cruz beating Trump. Furthermore, Cruz has shown that he gains support in actual voting when polls are close. (On the other hand, Trump far outperformed the polls in Arizona, but that’s a state where Cruz was never close in polling).
The problem in Wisconsin is that there just aren’t enough blacks in Wisconsin. Trump won in Illinois and Michigan which are both 14% black, and he essentially tied with Cruz in Missouri which is 11% black, so 11% is probably the threshold figure for Trump. Wisconsin is only 6% black.
I thought that Wisconsin was a Rust Belt state and that Trump is strong in the Rust Belt, but Trump isn’t strong enough to counter the absence of black people.
This is bad news because Indiana is another state in doubt. Indiana is only 9% black which is below the 11% threshold, and Indiana lacks other characteristics which would make it pro-Trump. If Trump loses both Wisconsin and Indiana, he will not have enough delegates to reach 1237.