Polls and Republican candidates vs. Clinton or Sanders
I copied this image from the RealClear Politics latest polls page.
We see that in a Trump vs. Clinton matchup in Pennsylvnia, voters only prefer Clinton by 3 points. Now if you examine Pennsylvania’s previous voting record, you will see that Republicans lost Pennsylania each of the last 5 elections, and the only election lost by only 3 points was 2004. Romney lost by 5 points and McCain lost by a whopping 10 points.
Republicans trying to stop Trump say they must stop him because it would be a huge disaster at the voting booths for the Republican Party, but at least this poll shows that’s totally false and that Trump outperforms the Republicans in the last two elections in the state of Pennsylvania.
The poll shows that Cruz only has a 3 point advantage over Trump in a matchup against Clinton, and is tied with Trump in a matchup against Sanders. I don’t know why Trump would be more popular than Cruz relative to the Democratic candidate when they are running against Sanders, and the poll has a margin of error, so I would split the difference and say that Cruz only has a slim 1.5% relative advantage over Trump.
That relative advantage is according to this poll. This poll doesn’t reflect how the MSM will go after Cruz the way they have been going after Trump. This poll reflects all of the bad information about Trump, but little of the bad information about Cruz. Furthermore, this poll doesn’t show how Trump supporters will feel after they perceive that the nomination was stolen from the candidate they feel passionate about.
Taking the above into account, common sense tells me that Trump will do much better in the general election than Cruz.
Commenter dsgntd_plyr writes:
I had a thought about Cruz and the MSM. They’ll destroy him because he doesn’t have Trump’s skills at playing the media, and I think he thinks he’s so smart and right (and not Trump), that somehow they’ll be fair to him.
Trump has the best chance in the general election of all republicans, and the party is throwing that away because they won’t compromise to their right on immigration and trade.
I agree! Well according to the poll, Kasich has the best chance of winning in the general election. That may even be correct, but Kasich is never going to have that chance. Based on how Cruz is positioned to win a delegate fight, the only real choice for the GOPe right now is Donald Trump or #LoseWithCruz.
If Democrats believed these polls, they would dump their support for Clinton and get behind Sanders really fast. Every poll shows that Sanders is liked a lot more by general-election voters than Clinton.