Prediction: Trump will win more than 50% in New York
Although I have doubts about whether Trump can win 1237 delegates, I have little doubt that Trump wins at least 50% of the vote in New York. All recent polls show him above that, and New York will be a state, like Arizona, where Trump outperforms the polls.
In the unlikely event that Trump fails to win 50% in New York, then Trump is doomed. In addition to having to share delegates if he is unable to win 50%, it will also show that he’s too weak to win enough delegates in other states.
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The image is a screenshot from my portfolio at PredictIt.org.