Lion of the Blogosphere

Prediction: Trump will win more than 50% in New York

predict_5

Although I have doubts about whether Trump can win 1237 delegates, I have little doubt that Trump wins at least 50% of the vote in New York. All recent polls show him above that, and New York will be a state, like Arizona, where Trump outperforms the polls.

In the unlikely event that Trump fails to win 50% in New York, then Trump is doomed. In addition to having to share delegates if he is unable to win 50%, it will also show that he’s too weak to win enough delegates in other states.

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The image is a screenshot from my portfolio at PredictIt.org.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

April 7, 2016 at EST am

Posted in Politics

5 Responses

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  1. trump will likely win the popular vote in Pennsylvania, but 57 of the 71 delegates are not bound at all….this very interesting and detailed article discusses what EACH of these unbound delegates plans to do at the convention. …and it looks like trump will get the vast majority of these delegates on not only the first ballot but on all consecutive ballots….do not sell trump short here! Read the article!

    http://triblive.com/politics/politicalheadlines/10253036-74/district-whoever-wins

    RCS

    April 7, 2016 at EST am

  2. My understanding was that Americans were not allowed to participate in these prediction markets, ie. the old inTrade. Is your friend who sent you this picture breaking the law? Or not a yank?

    Personally, I use hypermind.com, where patrons put up the money, getting around the US laws. Though the returns are trivial (I’ve won a total of 68 euros after a year of betting) its a free opion.

    Justin

    April 7, 2016 at EST am

  3. […] On April 7 I wrote: “New York will be a state, like Arizona, where Trump outperforms the polls.” […]

  4. It’s no surprise to anyone that Trump has won NYS. The White demographic, in much of upstate NY, is also prolier than that of downstate Westchester and the NYC area, who tend to work in value creating jobs vs the value transference or self actualizing parasites at the southern end. Factory/manufacturing jobs have been decimated up north and proles have been left in the cold.

    JS

    April 20, 2016 at EST am


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