Lion of the Blogosphere

Ross Douthat agrees that Cruz can’t be stopped

Ross Douthat writes in the NY Times:

But now we’re supposed to believe that those same incompetents are going to magically turn into convention Machiavels, capable of running a secret-but-not-really-secret whip operation on behalf of Ryan or Rubio while Cruz and Trump just stand by helplessly and let it happen? That Karl Rove and the Koch brothers are going to rediscover the magic of the smoke-filled room just in time to somehow undo a year’s worth of collective-action failures?

That seems unlikely. Yes, not so long ago the Republican Party drafted a reluctant Paul Ryan for high office, and it worked. But it worked because the House speakership was a job that nobody else — or nobody else plausible — really wanted.

Not so the party’s presidential nomination. Ted Cruz wants it — oh, how he wants it. And if he can keep Trump from the magic number, it’s hard to see the delegates giving it to anyone but him.

I’d like to say that Douthat must have been reading my blog, but actually the fact that Cruz can’t be stopped (if there’s a second ballot) is pretty obvious to everyone but clueless GOPe insiders.

And in addition to Cruz being unelectable even in a normal election year, he also has to contend with a large number of Trump supporters really pissed off because they will believe that the nomination was stolen from Trump. A large number of them will stay home and not vote.

And if Bernie somehow manages to win the nomination instead of Hillary, he will win in the biggest landslide since Reagan and Republicans may lose the House.

* * *

I don’t agree with Ross Douthat on a lot of things, but although Douthat is totally clueless about why blue collar whites like Trump, I think he’s well positioned to understand the behavior of Republican delegates.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

April 7, 2016 at 11:50 am

Posted in Politics

29 Responses

Subscribe to comments with RSS.

  1. Say it isn’t so Lion. I come to your site to find affirmation for my values and wishes, but the last few days have been depressing.


    April 7, 2016 at 12:03 pm

  2. This scenario has been in my mind for weeks now. Cruz manages to get the nomination by flipping delegates to him on the second ballot. Clinton does beat Sanders for the nomination. Cruz vs Clinton. However, Clinton has her email problem and the FBI is still investigating. There are too many Democrats who do not like Clinton and do think she is guilty, they do not vote. Cruz squeaks through to victory. Cruz knows this and this is why he does not drop out. The stars have to align for Lying Ted from Canada, but it can happen. Welcome to the Banana Republic of America.

    If Trump was a mainline candidate, all the other contenders would have dropped out by now because of “party unity”.


    April 7, 2016 at 12:04 pm

    • “If Trump was a mainline candidate, all the other contenders would have dropped out by now because of “party unity”.”

      the #nevertrump thing is partly jealousy with what trump can get away with. but it’s mostly that he’s not toeing the line on party orthodoxy.

      if trump had run a more conventional campaign like everyone keeps saying, but kept his policy positions, #nevertrump would still exist (“he’s not a real republican,” “he’s a stalking horse for hilary,” etc.)


      April 7, 2016 at 12:30 pm

    • but the MSM still have the Cruz sex scandal to work with.

      Mrs Stitch

      April 7, 2016 at 2:41 pm

  3. i had a thought about cruz and the msm. they’ll destroy him because he doesn’t have trump’s skills at playing the media, and i think he thinks he’s so smart and right (and not trump), that somehow they’ll be fair to him.

    trump has the best chance in the general election of all republicans, and the party is throwing that away because they wouldn’t compromise to their right on immigration and trade.

    ann coulter was right. if any candidate had stolen trump’s trade/immigration positions last year he would’ve been knocked out when he was stuck at 15-20% for a couple of months in the summer/early fall. but there was/is no alternative for people like me. so it’s trump, or i walk from the gop.


    April 7, 2016 at 12:25 pm

  4. a contested convention destroys the gop (which is ironic, because last summer i kept hearing trump would destroy the party). why would a large group of people (40-50% of gop voters when all is said and done) who are being told “we don’t want your politics in our party,” ever vote for another republican?*

    this ridiculous idea i’m hearing that cruz will lose honorably, but the party stays together, is the latest and greatest example of gop stupidity.

    *the reply they’re better than the democrats is bs. what has the gop conserved besides tax cuts post reagan?


    April 7, 2016 at 12:36 pm

  5. Lion. You may not like or agree with Nate Silver but he wrote an article yesterday saying the same on his blog too….that Ted is more likely to win at convention than Paul Ryan


    April 7, 2016 at 12:46 pm

    • I already linked to that article in my previous post!

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      April 7, 2016 at 1:27 pm

      • Rule 40b won’t be overturned because Trump & Cruz delegates won’t allow that. So the nomination will go to either Trump or Cruz.

        Steven J.

        April 7, 2016 at 4:18 pm

      • Cruz would want Rubio and Kasich in the race so Cruz can get to a second ballot.

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        April 7, 2016 at 7:09 pm

  6. And in addition to Cruz being unelectable even in a normal election year, he also has to contend with a large number of Trump supporters really pissed off because they will believe that the nomination was stolen from Trump. A large number of them will stay home and not vote.

    I won’t “not vote”.

    I will vote for Hillary and the down-ticket Democrats.

    And I will loudly say, “fuck you, GOPe!” when I do it.


    April 7, 2016 at 1:18 pm

    • A lot of us will be doing this. There are a lot of places where a small shift from one party to another can have catastrophic affects for the abandoned party. When state and local republicans realize they lost out because of what happened at the presidential level, a lot of them will want to either walk away from or seek revenge against the party. This could destroy the republicans for good; which would be a fitting end for the party and a great chance to build something much better.


      April 7, 2016 at 6:56 pm

  7. Do you see any chance of them teaming up? Trump Cruz 2016!


    April 7, 2016 at 2:30 pm

    • Cruz is more likely to team up with Kasich and offer him VP.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      April 7, 2016 at 7:08 pm

    • They have the same positions on trade and immigration. Although Cruz is even more obviously full of shit on those issues than Trump as he is on record with the opposite positions as recently as a few years ago.

      I’d like to see them team up or if not them then at least how they’ve campaigned. Anti immigration, anti free trade, and a full blossoming of their latent pro white, pro male, and pro christian messages.

      Lloyd Llewellyn

      April 9, 2016 at 7:30 am

  8. Uh, no. Those damning phone logs showing him going to a brothel run by that murdered DC Madam will stop him. He has done what he was supposed to, keep Trump from getting the magic number. If he wants the nomination a houseful of charges from his whoring will show him a long vacation at Club Fed if he doesn’t suddenly decide he needs more time with his family.

    Joshua Sinistar

    April 7, 2016 at 4:22 pm

  9. If Cruz thinks he can steal the nomination and people will have no choice but to vote for him he’s mistaken. I’ll either write Trump in or vote for Hillary (or Sanders) out of spite. But I’ll not vote for that greasy bastard. Not now. Not ever.

    This is a must read article by Coulter called “Moonies for Cruz”


    April 7, 2016 at 5:03 pm

  10. Cleveland don’t let us down, don’t let the fucking melting-face fat rat dracula steal the nomination. Authorized to use sunlight, rat pellets, garlic, and holy water, and any other means at your disposal.

    Panther of the Blogocube

    April 7, 2016 at 6:05 pm

  11. And in addition to Cruz being unelectable even in a normal election year,

    And his affairs have yet to come to light.

    His campaign needs to crushed ASAP: It’s use-it-or-lose-it time for whatever dirt the Trump campaign has about Cruz’s infidelity.

    The Undiscovered Jew

    April 7, 2016 at 7:05 pm

  12. Douthat is a little creep who did one one those twitter things about the Trump being killed. What a little rat bastard. He only did it to stay friendly with the scum at the NYT. When the riots start, I hope he’s one of the first losers to get dealt with. PS, S will HTF. Better be prepared. And to be honest, I can’t wait…


    April 7, 2016 at 7:16 pm

  13. you obviously have not yet read the article I linked in another thread…..because you are still posting the establishment propaganda designed to demotivate trump voters….

    trump will likely win the popular vote in Pennsylvania, but 57 of the 71 delegates are not bound at all….this very interesting and detailed article discusses what EACH of these unbound delegates plans to do at the convention. …and it looks like trump will get the vast majority of these delegates on not only the first ballot but on all consecutive ballots….do not sell trump short here! Read the article!

    you have not read this article, and you have not checked the children, either. Why haven’t you checked the children?


    April 7, 2016 at 7:37 pm

    • “Whoever wins his district” doesn’t sound like a very strong Trump supporter.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      April 7, 2016 at 9:05 pm

      • you are just being deliberately alarmist…or you did not understand the ramifications of that article…please write a post on that article…analyse its meaning and ramifications.


        April 7, 2016 at 10:57 pm

  14. I can’t believe the number of people here who seem to want actual violence at the Republican convention and a total collapse of the Republican party, rather than simply a defeat in November for any non-Trump Republican nominee in order to “send a message.” Why all this obsession with spite and destruction? It’s one election. There will be others. These were the same people who claimed that Truecons who threatened to sit out the election or vote Hillary rather than Trump in November were spiteful children.


    April 7, 2016 at 9:06 pm

    • The difference is pretty obvious: there are no policy reasons for TruCons to not vote for Trump against Hillary. There are very real policy reasons for us Trumpians to support violence if Trump doesn’t get the nom:

      1. Revenge on the TruCons for stealing the nomination from us
      2. Damaging America’s social fabric
      3. Legitimatization of the use of violence to solve political disputes, starting us on the path to a much needed civil war

      Otis the Sweaty

      April 8, 2016 at 1:59 am

    • Spite and violence are all that will work.


      April 8, 2016 at 11:28 am

  15. Kasich is only in to get leverage to be VP & to stop Trump. Trump & Cruz delegates won’t overturn Rule 40b. Kasich knows this, and will stay in even with rule 40b intact

    Steven J.

    April 7, 2016 at 9:24 pm

  16. It would really be amusing if the RINO Party actually let Cruz get in. Their whole spiel for stopping Trump is he didn’t get the magic number to automatically win. So they will let the guy who fell even shorter get the nod? Plus this whole Hillary faces indictment is a non-issue because even Obama wouldn’t indict his Party’s nominated candidate. She-male has the hissy Queen hate for the other Queen Bee, but he’ll be raked over the coals if he indicts the candidate of his party. However, with Cruz sailing straight into HOOKERGATE, he’s the worst candidate they could get to run against Hillary. I imagine 15 minutes after getting the nomination at the Cleveland Massacre, there will be a Fast and Furious series of indictments filed on Cruz for all that Paid Poontang at HookerWorld. This guy will be the Hindenburg of Presidential Candidates. Oh the Cubanity! Cuban Ted will be on the Road for Club Fed before Cleveland is over. CLEVELAND ROCKED BY CRUZ INDICTMENT they will say. It’ll be one sad day in Redville because Cruz struck out before he left home!

    Joshua Sinistar

    April 9, 2016 at 11:39 pm

  17. should the pro-Trump people start threatening riots outside the convention if Cruz is picked?


    April 10, 2016 at 5:10 pm

Comments are closed.

%d bloggers like this: