Lion of the Blogosphere

Lion better at analyzing GOP primaries than Nate Silver

Today, Nate Silver changes his projections and admits mistakes.

Trump got no delegates in Utah when we thought he might get a few.

I always predicted that Trump would get no delegates from Utah, as soon as I started analyzing the delegate rules.

And how about this prediction I wrote on March 16 about New York State: “the final result is 82 delegates for Trump and 13 for Kasich.”

Today, Nate Silver writes:

One pollster, Optimus, took the former approach, surveying more than 14,000 (!) New Yorkers in a “robocall” survey and providing a breakdown of results by congressional district. That poll had Trump finishing first in 26 of 27 districts (losing one Manhattan district to John Kasich) and getting a majority in 15 of 27, along with a majority of the vote (just barely) statewide. Such a result would earn Trump 82 of 95 delegates.

I guesstimated that EXACT number a month ago before the benefit of a poll!

And by the way, I am really annoyed that my phone is ringing multiple times per day with polls and recorded messages from political candidates, and even I even received a live call from a Trump person. I’ve stopped answering my phone.

* * *

At least Nate Silver has some good news MORE than half of Pennsylvania’s unbound delegates may vote for Trump on a first ballot, and that’s really HUGE for Trump because 27 (50%) of those delegates, plus 7 of 9 delegates from Guam and another 7 of 9 from American Samoa who I think will vote for Trump, means that Trump can fall at least 41 delegates short of 1237 and still win on the first ballot.

This could be the first time in history that Guam + Northern Mariana Islands (where Trump won all 9 delegates) + Samoa were so key to determining who wins the nomination!

Trump may also get some of the 6 votes from the Virgin Islands.

Being somewhat on the conservative side here, let’s say that Trump really needs only 1200 bound delegates to have a very good chance to secure the nomination and not 1237.

But let’s also reiterate a point I have been making for the last week or two, which is that if Trump fails to win the first ballot, Cruz is going to win the nomination, and there’s nothing that Trump or the GOPe can do to stop that.

Written by Lion of the Blogosphere

April 14, 2016 at 9:19 am

Posted in Politics

51 Responses

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  1. On benefit of this election is that it is showing that Nate Silver is a charlatan.


    April 14, 2016 at 9:24 am

  2. Nate isn’t so much a charlatan as overrated and a committed establishment liberal. He hates Trump but he hates Sanders too. He is committed to the uniparty establishment and has a deep distrust for the masses and populism, of either the left or right variety.

    He really got ahead of himself before the primaries insisting that Trump had a zero percent chance of winning the nomination, but he did something very impressive after that: he changed his position and admitted that he had been wrong.

    Otis the Sweaty

    April 14, 2016 at 10:03 am

    • I have seen Nate Silver do that multiple times when he is wrong. His record speaks for himself though. 50 out of 50 in 2 presidential election. Cmon.


      April 14, 2016 at 12:57 pm

  3. This interview with Carl Diggler, one of Nate Silver’s greatest rivals, is pretty entertaining. He doesn’t mince words, not often.

    Greg Pandatshang

    April 14, 2016 at 10:04 am

    • “Carl” is actually three guys, so I wonder which one they were interviewing.


      April 14, 2016 at 7:19 pm

  4. Good post. Why don’t the Mormons like Trump? I’ve never understood that. I know that Romney has been attacking Trump and that most Mormons tend to do what their leadership tells them to do, but what’s the angle? Cruz’s evangelical Christian base and the LDSer’s aren’t exactly BFF.

    Black Death

    April 14, 2016 at 10:10 am

    • Because Mormon’s are utter vermin. They are all about “muh values” and are cucks par excellence.

      Otis the Sweaty

      April 14, 2016 at 10:54 am

      • Yes we are. Nothing worse than people who really believe in Middle Class values.

        Half Canadian

        April 14, 2016 at 2:53 pm

    • I wouldn’t call Romney a Mormon leader (a prominent Mormon, yes).
      Mormons don’t like Trump because he’s crude, vulgar, and disingenuous. I really want to believe that he will crack down on illegal immigration, but given that he criticized Romney for being too harsh on immigration, I do wonder why most people here aren’t also skeptical.

      Half Canadian

      April 14, 2016 at 2:49 pm

      • He’s a leader and he’s a religious Mormon.

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        April 14, 2016 at 3:59 pm

      • That’s a rather disingenuous response. As far as I know, he has no formal leadership position in the Mormon church. He may be prominent, but so is John Huntsman, and I wouldn’t consider him a Mormon leader.

        Half Canadian

        April 14, 2016 at 5:17 pm

      • because he’s crude, vulgar, and disingenuous.

        Still righteously judgemental. Even after all the smoke surrounding Cruz’s past that is so obviously being covered up for political reasons. These people should be chastened for their rush to certify and support a ‘true constitutional conservative’ who has turned out to be anything but. But not yet. Not after throwing the Constitution under the bus to side with the Communist left against Trump at Chicago. Not after siding with ISIS against Trump after Brussels. Not after scolding Trump for logically suggesting that there should be some kind of punishment for breaking (abortion) laws, even if the lawbreaker is a woman.

        There’s talk going around that Cruz built is campaign operation over a year ago based on psychological profiling for certain kinds of rigid personality types. I’m starting to think there’s something to that. It matters not to these people that Trump may be running one of the most transparent political campaigns of modern times.

        Andrew E.

        April 14, 2016 at 6:10 pm

    • As members of a cult, Mormons are trained to live in constant fear of doing something that will draw the ire of the respectability police within the church. They have no freedom from inhibitions, they are one big cluster of inhibitions, that’s why Mormons appear as robots to outsiders. Trump, of course, is the polar opposite psychologically, and thus represents a thoroughly alien presence to them. Mormons simply cannot believe that the powers that be might be lying or conning them. For Fs sake, they follow their church’s commandments not to read anything critical of Mormonism. If you are that much of a follower, Trump isn’t going to be your guy.


      April 14, 2016 at 2:55 pm

      • People at blogs like this one are always complaining about how blacks and gays and guidos and proles are misbehaving, but you find one demographic where everybody behaves, Mormons, and they call them a cult of robots.


        April 14, 2016 at 4:29 pm

      • Have you actually LIVED in a Mormon area? I lived in Phoenix for a decade, there were many Mormons there, I know the robotic vibe they give off.

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        April 14, 2016 at 4:55 pm

      • “I lived in Phoenix for a decade,”

        What was that like? Apologies if you have already gone into this. I only began reading you regularly after the Trumpening.


        April 14, 2016 at 6:38 pm

      • Hot. But it was a dry heat.

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        April 14, 2016 at 7:11 pm

      • Hot. But it was a dry heat.

        So’s my oven.


        April 14, 2016 at 11:05 pm

    • Because Mormon’s are very nice people. States with too many nice people vote against Trump unfortunately.

      Jay Fink

      April 14, 2016 at 3:44 pm

  5. Lion, did you see this?

    Maybe the GOPe have had some time to think it over, and realize they can work (and win) with Trump, more so than Cruz. He’s growing on them!


    April 14, 2016 at 10:49 am

  6. Curious, where do you get your estimates for the number of delegates from Guam and Somoa that will vote Trump on first ballot? Hunch?

    Andrew E.

    April 14, 2016 at 10:51 am

    • Hunch. Trump is very popular with Pacific Islanders. He won the Hawaii caucus and the Northern Mariana Islands caucus.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      April 14, 2016 at 2:16 pm

  7. i listened to that whole diggler interview. its hilarious. the guy is such a dick and doesnt care at all, and very right about everything he says.

    james n.s.w

    April 14, 2016 at 11:42 am

  8. “And by the way, I am really annoyed that my phone is ringing multiple times per day with polls and recorded messages from political candidates, and even I even received a live call from a Trump person.”

    See, that could be a sign of how you would be treated when one of them becomes President. Most political candidates, despite having raised millions of dollars, will use a machine to call you. But Trump uses a live person — he always stands out like that. He is the one who is more likely to care about the ordinary folks and address their concerns. He will be available to take that important 3 a.m. call because he does not sleep or vacation much. (Not that it’s a good idea to skip sleep in general, but he happens to need it less, apparently.)


    April 14, 2016 at 1:27 pm

  9. I think that Trump will win the Republican nomination, and I think that Hillary will win the Democratic nomination, and at this point I think that Hilary has the edge in the general election, because liberals (and women) are just so damn clueless. When Trump wins the Republican nomination he will owe nothing, NOTHING, to the Republican establishment. I propose, therefore, that he make a bold move that will ensure his victory in November: select Bernie Sanders as his running mate. This is not a crazy idea. Both men can sit in a room and hash out their differences and establish lower and upper bounds on what policies the Trump/Sanders administration will enact. Publish this as a manifesto and say that it is best for the country because in one fell swoop they will have destroyed the parasitic Republocrat consensus that has degraded this country over the past 30 years. Sure, some Trump supporters will recoil with horror, but where will they go? To Hilary? And enough Sanders supporters will get it so that Hilary will only win in in hardcore liberal havens such as Massachusetts and DC. A Trump/Sanders ticket can win New York, California, Illinois even. Trump has been bold and surprising so far, he oughta pull this rabbit out of his hat and shock them all. He can win easily with this strategy. And Sanders will not be betraying his supporters. He will declare that he and Trump have worked out compromises that will round off the harder edge of Trump’s right wing instincts while preserving progressive economic polices. And Berne will acknowledge that the coalition will have to forsake some of his own left wing preferences, but compromise is the true essence of justice.

    Trump/Sanders 2016.


    April 14, 2016 at 4:26 pm

    • Trump can’t make Bernie his running mate unless the delegates approve it, and these are the same delegates who would vote for Ted Cruz for president if given the chance.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      April 14, 2016 at 4:54 pm

      • What about Jim Webb? Democrat, war hero, former Reagan official. Would fit in to Trump’s strategy of appealing to working class whites regardless of political affiliation.


        April 14, 2016 at 5:38 pm

      • Delegates have to approve the VP choice? I didn’t know that. Then that idea is dead in the water.


        April 14, 2016 at 5:56 pm

      • Normally they rubber stamp whomever the nominee tells them to, but this time around things might be different. Trump might even get stuck with Cruz as VP whether he wants him or not.

        Lion of the Blogosphere

        April 14, 2016 at 6:15 pm

      • The idea of Jim Webb is appealing, except I think he’s bipolar.


        April 14, 2016 at 6:42 pm

      • What about Jim Webb?

        Sec of Veterans Affairs.

        Maybe Trump could announce Cabinet choices during the General Election.


        April 14, 2016 at 11:03 pm

      • What about Jim Webb?

        Why Webb when we can have Harry Reid with whom Webb voted with over 90% of the time in the senate!

        Fucking imbeciles.

        The Undiscovered Jew

        April 14, 2016 at 11:48 pm

  10. I guesstimated that EXACT number a month ago before the benefit of a poll!

    With such prophetic powers you should be making preparations to replace the newly installed, and failing, Igbo CEO of Credit Suisse.

    The Undiscovered Jew

    April 14, 2016 at 5:37 pm

    • Intrigued, I looked up that Igbo factoid. He’s Cote d’Voirian/Senegalese. Neither country has Igbos, to my knowledge – they are in what is now Nigeria.

      BTW the betrayal of Biafra was a crime. Biafra might have made the only functional state in black Africa. But the money was on Nigeria, so that corrupt country got to stay together. A shame.


      April 15, 2016 at 3:10 pm

  11. If Trump gets the nom, would Kasich accept being his VP? I think he would. Would really help Trump with stupid Midwesterners

    Otis the Sweaty

    April 14, 2016 at 5:47 pm

  12. Being somewhat on the conservative side here, let’s say that Trump really needs only 1200 bound delegates to have a very good chance to secure the nomination and not 1237.

    To reach 1237 Trump must knock it out of the park in the Northeast where, at the moment, his position looks strong.

    After New York, where he should get all or almost all of the delegates, there are another 172 delegates up for grabs in states where Trump also leads big: Maryland, Connecticut, Delaware, Rhode Island, and Pennsylvania.

    The Undiscovered Jew

    April 14, 2016 at 5:48 pm

    • I think Trump can clear 50% of the vote in Connecticut and thus pick up 100% of the delegates, per my previous analysis.

      Lion of the Blogosphere

      April 14, 2016 at 6:14 pm

    • Per the latest poll Trump is at 50% in Connecticut.

      The Undiscovered Jew

      April 14, 2016 at 6:24 pm

  13. Assume Trump is nominated at the convention. Is he obligated to immediately announce his vp or can he wait a few weeks?


    April 14, 2016 at 6:02 pm

  14. I’m not sure why so many people here are down on Mormons. I lived in Boise, Id for a couple of years and was surrounded by Mormons. I’ve taken several trips to Europe with a group called “Fun-for-less” out of Salt Lake and have never met a one I didn’t like. A few years ago my wife and I were in Florence, Italy with this group and an older WWII vet over 90, wilted in the heat of the summer. He needed to fly home the next day but he need a $1000. to change his scheduled flight. Several of us were going to kick in a couple of hundred bucks when a retired judge, Mormon of course took out his check book and wrote him a check for the entire amount.

    The other cool thing about traveling with Mormons in Europe is that when there is free wine to be had they always give you theirs.


    April 14, 2016 at 6:12 pm

    • I’m not sure why so many people here are down on Mormons.

      Because they and so many other ‘nice’ people fell hook, line and sinker for the Cruz fraud. And they refuse to admit they got duped.

      Andrew E.

      April 14, 2016 at 6:23 pm

    • Their religion is so weird that they overcompensate by being terribly conventional.

      Mrs Stitch

      April 14, 2016 at 6:45 pm

    • I’m not down on Mormons. I admire them, because they are very admirable.

      I read once (I think in a Joel Kotkin book, believe it or not) about how Salt Lake City was going to be inundated by snow-melt, and the Mormon Pope or whatever they call their top dog, called his 12 apostles or peeps or whatever they call them, and those 12 called their peeps, and so on, and within two hours the entire male population of SLC was mobilized and they stopped the flood. The exact opposite of the gibsmedat/NIMBY psychology that pervades the modern West. Very admirable.


      April 14, 2016 at 6:51 pm

      • Forgot to add, they stopped the flood with sandbags. Every man had a responsibility already worked out in advance what to do. Remarkable.


        April 14, 2016 at 6:52 pm

      • Is it true that many Mormons are multi cult enthusiasts? Lately I have heard they are cucking hard and encouraging miscegenation via immigration and the adoption of non Asian minorities. One would think that such a lily white conservative enclave would have greater suspicion of out groups and the resulting riff raff.


        April 14, 2016 at 7:53 pm

      • Mormons are reflections of America. What Otis would call A-mur-ka. In the 19th Century they were racists but so was the rest of America. Now they are non-racist up the wazoo. In this they reflect America. But with a twist: they want the world to be Mormon. Well, maybe in this they reflect America as well.


        April 15, 2016 at 12:38 pm

    • Now they are non-racist up the wazoo.

      In other words they are hyperconformists.

      They are like herd animals who have been selected to conform to the herd. Whatever the herd standards of behavior are.


      April 15, 2016 at 2:24 pm

      • “hyperconformists.”

        Well, up to a point. They are now being nice to teh gheyz, but they will never, ever approve of homosexuality.

        Interracial marriage, yes. Mia Love converted to Mormonism from Haitian Catholicism, and they hold her up like a prize in a bakeoff.


        April 15, 2016 at 3:12 pm

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