Lion better at analyzing GOP primaries than Nate Silver
Trump got no delegates in Utah when we thought he might get a few.
I always predicted that Trump would get no delegates from Utah, as soon as I started analyzing the delegate rules.
And how about this prediction I wrote on March 16 about New York State: “the final result is 82 delegates for Trump and 13 for Kasich.”
Today, Nate Silver writes:
One pollster, Optimus, took the former approach, surveying more than 14,000 (!) New Yorkers in a “robocall” survey and providing a breakdown of results by congressional district. That poll had Trump finishing first in 26 of 27 districts (losing one Manhattan district to John Kasich) and getting a majority in 15 of 27, along with a majority of the vote (just barely) statewide. Such a result would earn Trump 82 of 95 delegates.
I guesstimated that EXACT number a month ago before the benefit of a poll!
And by the way, I am really annoyed that my phone is ringing multiple times per day with polls and recorded messages from political candidates, and even I even received a live call from a Trump person. I’ve stopped answering my phone.
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At least Nate Silver has some good news MORE than half of Pennsylvania’s unbound delegates may vote for Trump on a first ballot, and that’s really HUGE for Trump because 27 (50%) of those delegates, plus 7 of 9 delegates from Guam and another 7 of 9 from American Samoa who I think will vote for Trump, means that Trump can fall at least 41 delegates short of 1237 and still win on the first ballot.
This could be the first time in history that Guam + Northern Mariana Islands (where Trump won all 9 delegates) + Samoa were so key to determining who wins the nomination!
Trump may also get some of the 6 votes from the Virgin Islands.
Being somewhat on the conservative side here, let’s say that Trump really needs only 1200 bound delegates to have a very good chance to secure the nomination and not 1237.
But let’s also reiterate a point I have been making for the last week or two, which is that if Trump fails to win the first ballot, Cruz is going to win the nomination, and there’s nothing that Trump or the GOPe can do to stop that.